Voter Turnout in U.S. Presidential Elections: An Historical View and Some Speculation

Abstract

An examination of presidential voting patterns between 1828 and 1992 for all counties and most large cities in the continental U.S. (approximately 135,000 cases altogether) confirms that there has been a decline in turnout rates since 1960, as most commentators have suggested. For the nation as a whole, turnout in presidential elections dropped 20% from 64% in 1960 to 51% in 1988. Turnout rebounded slightly in 1992 to 55%, due perhaps in large part to the interest generated by Ross Perot.As striking as these data appear, they must be put in historical perspective to be properly understood. Graph 1 displays the turnout rate for every presidential election between 1828 and 1992 (See Table 1 for a listing of the actual rates). It shows that while turnout in the presidential election of 1988 was the third lowest since 1828, surpassed only in 1920 and 1924 (with turnout rates of 44% in each election), the 1960–1988 decline is not unprecedented in U.S. electoral history. In an earlier 28-year period (1896–1924), turnout rates in presidential elections declined from 72% to 44%. This is a 39% decline in turnout almost double that experienced between 1960 and 1988.Graph 1 also shows that while most commentators use the 1960 election as a basis for gauging changes in turnout, it is a somewhat misleading baseline. Turnout in 1960 was 64%, which was the highest turnout rate for U.S. presidential elections since 1900. The 1960 election capped a 36-year rise in turnout rates, and represented a 45% increase over the low points registered in 1920 and 1924. Indeed, with the exception of 1944 and 1948, when the nation was preoccupied with World War II and its aftermath, the period between 1928 and 1968 shows a steady increase in presidential turnout rates.