Tropospheric Products Research Articles

GNSS Real-Time ZTD/PWV Retrieval Based on PPP with Broadcast Ephemerides

GNSS precise point positioning (PPP) plays an important role in retrieving atmospheric water vapor values and performing numerical weather prediction. However, traditional PPP relies on real-time orbits and clocks, which require continuous internet or satellite communication. Improved broadcast ephemerides of GNSSs offer new opportunities for PPP with broadcast ephemerides (BE-PPP) instead of using precise ephemeride products. Therefore, we investigated the feasibility of utilizing BE-PPP for retrieving zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) and precipitable water vapor (PWV) data. We processed the GPS/Galileo observations from 80 IGS stations during a 30-day experiment to retrieve ZTD values using both real-time PPP (RT-PPP) and BE-PPP solutions. Then, we processed observations from 20 EUREF Permanent GNSS Network (EPN) stations to retrieve PWV data. The IGS final tropospheric products were used to validate the ZTD, and radiosonde (RDS) and ERA5 data were used to validate the PWV. The results show that the real-time ZTD from BE-PPP agrees well with that from RT-PPP: the standard deviation (STD) of the ZTD is 1.07 cm when using BE-PPP and 0.6 cm when using RT-PPP. Furthermore, the STD of the PWV is 1.69 mm when using BE-PPP, and 0.96 mm when using RT-PPP, compared to the ERA5-PWV. Compared to the RDS-PWV, the STD is 3.09 mm when using BE-PPP and 1.39 mm when using RT-PPP. In conclusion, the real-time ZTD/PWV products obtained using the BE-PPP solution are consistent with those of RT-PPP and meet the requirements of NWP, so this method can be used as an effective complement to RT-PPP to expand its application potential.

Analysis of Different Height Correction Models for Tropospheric Delay Grid Products over the Yunnan Mountains

Accurate tropospheric delays are of great importance for both Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-based positioning and precipitable water vapor monitoring. The gridded tropospheric delay products, including zenith hydrostatic delays (ZHD) and zenith wet delays (ZWD), are the most ideal method for accessing accurate tropospheric delays. The vertical adjustment method is critical for implementing the gridded tropospheric products. In this work, we consider the different models used for grid products and assess their performance over Yunnan mountains with complex topography. We summarize the main results as follows: (1) The products can provide accurate ZHD with mean biases of −2.6 mm and mean Standard Deviation (STD) of 1.5 mm while the ZWD results from grid products show a performance with biases of −0.4 mm and STD of 1.3 cm over the Yunnan area. (2) The Tv-based model shows a better performance than the T0-based model and IGPZWD in rugged areas with large height differences. The grid products can provide hourly ZHD with biases of 3 mm and wet delay with mean biases of within 2 cm and mean STD of below 3 cm in the Yunnan mountains, which exhibit a large height difference of around 1.5 km. (3) The radiosondes results confirm that the Tv-based model has an obvious advantage in calculating ZHD height corrections for differences within 2 km while the T0-model suffers from a loss in accuracy in the case of large height differences. If the site is located more than 1 km below the reference height, the IGPZWD model can provide a better ZWD with a mean bias of 1.5 cm and a mean STD of 1.7 cm. With vertical reduction models, the grid products can provide accurate ZHD and ZWD in real time, even if in complex area.

A Machine Learning-Based Tropospheric Prediction Approach for High-Precision Real-Time GNSS Positioning.

For high-precision positioning applications, various GNSS errors need to be mitigated, including the tropospheric error, which remains a significant error source as it can reach up to a few meters. Although some commercial GNSS correction data providers, such as the Quasi-Zenith Satellite System (QZSS) Centimeter Level Augmentation Service (CLAS), have developed real-time precise regional troposphere products, the service is available only in limited regional areas. The International GNSS Service (IGS) has provided precise troposphere correction data in TRO format post-mission, but its long latency of 1 to 2 weeks makes it unable to support real-time applications. In this work, a real-time troposphere prediction method based on the IGS post-processing products was developed using machine learning techniques to eliminate the long latency problem. The test results from tropospheric predictions over a year using the proposed method indicate that the new method can achieve a prediction accuracy (RMSE) of 2 cm, making it suitable for real-time applications.

GNSS signal ray-tracing algorithm for the simulation of satellite-to-satellite excess phase in the neutral atmosphere

Traditionally, GNSS space-based and ground-based estimates of tropospheric conditions are performed separately. It leads to limitations in the horizontal (e.g., a single space-based radio occultation profile covers a 300 km slice of the troposphere) and vertical resolution (e.g., ground-based estimates of troposphere conditions have spacing equal to stations’ distribution) of the tropospheric products. The first stage to achieve an integrated model is to create an effective 3D ray-tracing algorithm for the satellite-to-satellite (radio occultation) path reconstruction. We verify the consistency of the simulated data with the RO observations from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC-1) Data Analysis and Archive Center (CDAAC) in terms of excess phase and bending angle. The results show that our solution provides an effective RO excess phase, with a relative error varying from 35% at the height of 25–30 km (1.0–1.5 m) to 0.5% at heights 5–10 km (0.1–1 m) and 14 to 2% at heights below 5 km (2–14 m). The bending angle retrieval on simulated data attained for high-resolution ray-tracing, bias lower than 2% with respect to the observed bending angle. The optimal solution takes about 1 s for one transmitter–receiver pair with a tangent point below 5 km altitude. The high-resolution processing solution takes 3 times longer.

Assessment of ERA5 derived zenith tropospheric delay data over East African region

The Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) provide valuable data for computing accurate and reliable Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) products used in GNSS precise positioning, climate, and meteorological studies. However, inconsistent GNSS data streaming in the East African region, caused by poor internet connectivity, equipment failure, and electrical power outages, results in data gaps that pose an impact on the applications of the ZTD products. To ensure continuous ZTD data availability, alternative approaches are necessary to fill the gaps. This paper evaluates the accuracy and feasibility of computing ZTD over East Africa using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 5th Re-Analysis (ERA5) model. The ERA5 ZTD is compared with ZTD data from 13 GNSS stations for the years 2013 to 2020 from the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory (NGL) products. Seven statistical evaluation metrics, including mean bias (MnB), root mean squared error (RMSE), Pearson correlation coefficient (R), coefficient of determination (R2), refined index of agreement (IA), Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE), and Taylor skill score (TSS) were used to determine the agreement between ERA5 and GNSS tropospheric products. The results indicate that ERA5ZTD products match well with GNSS ZTD products, with an average MnB of −0.80 mm, RMSE of 8.94 mm, R of 0.976, R2 of 0.952, IA of 0.986, TSS of 0.975, and NSE of 0.945. The high accuracy and stability of ERA5 data in computing ZTD make it an excellent alternative source of ZTD data to augment GNSS ZTD products for positioning and meteorological applications in the East African region.

Estimation and Evaluation of Zenith Tropospheric Delay from Single and Multiple GNSS Observations

Multi-Global Navigation Satellite Systems (multi-GNSS) (including GPS, BDS, Galileo, and GLONASS) provide a significant opportunity for high-quality zenith tropospheric delay estimation and its applications in meteorology. However, the performance of zenith total delay (ZTD) retrieval from single- or multi-GNSS observations is not clear, particularly from the new, fully operating BDS-3. In this paper, zenith tropospheric delay is estimated using the single-, dual-, triple-, or four-GNSS Precise Point Positioning (PPP) technique from 55 Multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX) stations over one year. The performance of GNSS ZTD estimation is evaluated using the International GNSS Service (IGS) standard tropospheric products, radiosonde, and the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA5). The results show that the GPS-derived ZTD time series is more consistent and reliable than those derived from BDS-only, Galileo-only, and GLONASS-only solutions. The performance of the single-GNSS ZTD solution can be enhanced with better accuracy and stability by combining multi-GNSS observations. The accuracy of the ZTD from multi-GNSS observations is improved by 13.8%, 43.8%, 27.6%, and 22.9% with respect to IGS products for the single-system solution (GPS, BDS, Galileo, and GLONASS), respectively. The ZTD from multi-GNSS observations presents higher accuracy and a significant improvement with respect to radiosonde and ERA5 data when compared to the single-system solution.

The Novel Copernicus Global Dataset of Atmospheric Total Water Vapour Content with Related Uncertainties from GNSS Observations

A novel algorithm has been designed and implemented in the Climate Data Store (CDS) frame of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) with the main goal of providing high-quality GNSS-based integrated water vapour (IWV) datasets for climate research and applications. For this purpose, the related CDS GNSS datasets were primarily obtained from GNSS reprocessing campaigns, given their highest quality in adjusting systematic effects due to changes in instrumentation and data processing. The algorithm is currently applied to the International GNSS Service (IGS) tropospheric products, which are consistently extended in near real-time and date back to 2000, and to the results of a reprocessing campaign conducted by the EUREF Permanent GNSS Network (EPN repro2), covering the period from 1996 to 2014. The GNSS IWV retrieval employs ancillary meteorological data sourced from ERA5. Moreover, IWV estimates are provided with associated uncertainty, using an approach similar to that used for the Global Climate Observing System Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) GNSS data product. To assess the quality of the newly introduced GNSS IWV datasets, a comparison is made against the radiosonde data from GRUAN and the Radiosounding HARMonization (RHARM) dataset as well as with the IGS repro3, which will be the next GNSS-based extension of IWV time series at CDS. The comparison indicates that the average difference in IWV among the reprocessed GNSS datasets is less than 0.1 mm. Compared to RHARM and GRUAN IWV values, a small dry bias of less than 1 mm for the GNSS IWV is detected. Additionally, the study compares GNSS IWV trends with the corresponding values derived from RHARM at selected radiosonde sites with more than ten years of data. The trends are mostly statistically significant and in good agreement.

10-Year assessment of GNSS integrated water vapour in the SIRGAS network

This work aims to analyse ten years (2012–2022) of integrated water vapour (IWV) values computed with the SIRGAS tropospheric products. We selected 246 sites that guarantee the continuity of data, and we extracted common statistical values for each time series (mean values, standard deviation, and time of daily peaks). With this information, we performed a spatial analysis of the IWV over Latin America and the Caribbean region, that is covered for this geodetic network. We analysed the homogeneity of the IWV time series, and we applied Rotated Principal Components Analysis (RPCA) for the comprehension of the seasonal variations of each site. Due to the extension of the region of interest, we studied the influence of latitude and height in the behaviour of IWV. We performed an unprecedented analysis of IWV, showing the potential of the tropospheric products offered by the SIRGAS network.

Investigating the Inter-Relationships among Multiple Atmospheric Variables and Their Responses to Precipitation

In this study, a comprehensive investigation into the inter-relationships among twelve atmospheric variables and their responses to precipitation was conducted. These variables include two Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) tropospheric products, eight weather variables and two time-varying parameters. Their observations and corresponding precipitation record over the period 2008–2019 were obtained from a pair of GNSS/weather stations in Hong Kong. Firstly, based on the correlation and regression analyses, the cross-relationships among the variables were systematically analyzed. Typically, the variables of precipitable water vapor (PWV), zenith total delay (ZTD), temperature, pressure, wet-bulb temperature and dew-point temperature have closer cross-correlativity. Next, the responses of these variables to precipitation of different intensities were investigated and some precursory information of precipitation contained in these variables was revealed. The lead times of using ZTD and PWV to detect heavy precipitation are about 8 h. Finally, by using the principal component analysis, it is shown that heavy precipitation can be effectively detected using these variables, among which, ZTD, PWV and cloud coverage play more prominent roles. The research findings can not only increase the utilization and uptake of atmospheric variables in the detection of precipitation, but also provide clues in the development of more robust precipitation forecasting models.

Monitoring the Migration of Water Vapor Using Ground-Based GNSS Tropospheric Products

Water vapor (WV), as an essential climate variable, its content and migration process have significant implications for determining the intensity, time, and extent of various weather extremes. Hence, it is essential to conduct continuous, timely, and accurate monitoring of WV, especially its migration. Nowadays, the ground-based Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) tropospheric sounding technique has been effectively applied to sensing WV content. To advance its application, a new method for monitoring WV migration using GNSS-derived zenith total delay and tropospheric gradients is developed. The utility of the method was evaluated in the context of New Zealand to monitor the rapid migration of WV resulting from Cyclone Cody and the eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano over the period 15-16 January 2022. By using products obtained from a dense GNSS network with 40 stations, the determined isochrones clearly depict the migration direction and speed of WV. Results indicated that the WV moved southwestward and southeastward over the North and South Islands of New Zealand, respectively. It took about fifteen hours for the WV to pass over the study region, with a mean speed of 79.79 km/h.

Tropospheric parameters from multi-GNSS and numerical weather models: case study of severe precipitation and flooding in Germany in July 2021

Storms and floods are the most frequent natural disaster in western and central Europe. Due to climate change, intensive storms with prolonged rain episodes will continue to cause even more destructive flooding. The good understanding and forecasting of such events are thus of uttermost importance. One of the ways to improve weather forecasts is the assimilation of external data, such as the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). In this study, a preparation of the multi-GNSS tropospheric products—zenith total delays, tropospheric gradients and slant total delays—for future operational assimilation is shown. For a severe precipitation event in July 2021 in Germany, the GNSS parameters from three systems—GPS, GLONASS and Galileo—are compared to three Numerical Weather Models (NWMs)—ERA5 reanalysis of ECMWF, ICON run by the German Weather Service and GFS run by the US Weather Service. The flood that followed the rainfall was the deadliest natural disaster in Germany since 1962. The results show that all considered GNSS solutions have a similar level of agreement with the NWMs. However, for the flood region in western Germany, the biases from the multi-GNSS solutions are smaller compared to the GPS-only solution. From the models, ICON has the highest agreement with the GNSS data for all considered tropospheric parameters. The best agreement with the ICON is probably due to its high horizontal resolution and, thus, low representative errors and the fine tuning of DWD’s regional model for the specific region (Germany).

Assessment of SIRGAS-CON tropospheric products using ERA5 and IGS

Abstract Zenith Tropospheric Delays (ZTDs) are used to correct tropospheric effects that cause a delay in the signal measured by Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) receivers and obtain accurate measurements. ZTD can be estimated from GNSS processing, which means they may suffer from occasional or systematic errors. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the quality and stability of these data over time, since ZTDs are used in several applications that require centimeter precision. Within this context, this work aims to assess the available ZTD of the whole Geodetic Reference System for the Americas Continuously Operating Network (SIRGAS-CON), consisting of 467 stations, spanning the period from January 2014 to December 2020 using the most recent Numerical Weather Model ERA5 from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and common stations to the International GNSS Service (IGS) for an intercomparison. Results show that 10% of the stations present some instability, such as periods of highly dispersed data or discontinuities, with more occurrence in stations located in Argentina, Uruguay and Colombia. The remaining 90% proved to have stable and reliable ZTD, both in comparison with ERA5 and IGS.

Machine learning-based prediction of Alpine foehn events using GNSS troposphere products: first results for Altdorf, Switzerland

Abstract. Remote sensing of water vapour using the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) is a well-established technique and reliable data source for numerical weather prediction (NWP). However, one of the phenomena rarely studied using GNSS are foehn winds. Since foehn winds are associated with significant humidity gradients between two sides of a mountain range, tropospheric estimates from GNSS are also affected by their occurrence. Time series reveal characteristic features like distinctive minima and maxima as well as a significant decrease in the correlation between the stations. However, detecting such signals becomes increasingly difficult for large datasets. Therefore, we suggest the application of machine learning algorithms for the detection and prediction of foehn events by means of GNSS troposphere products. This initial study develops a new, machine learning-based method for detection and prediction of foehn events at the Swiss station Altdorf by utilising long-term time series of high-quality GNSS troposphere products. Data from the Automated GNSS Network Switzerland (AGNES) and various GNSS sites from neighbouring countries as well as records of an operational foehn index are used to investigate the performance of several different classification algorithms based on appropriate statistical metrics. The two best-performing algorithms are fine tuned and tested in four dedicated experiments using different feature setups. The results are promising, especially when reprocessed GNSS products are utilised and the most dense station setup is used. Detection- and alarm-based measures reach levels between 66 %–80 % for both tested algorithms and thus are comparable to those from studies using data from meteorological stations and NWP. For operational prediction, limitations due to the availability and quality of GNSS products in near-real time (NRT) exist. However, they might be mitigated to a significant extent by provision of additional NRT products and improved data processing in the future. Results also outline benefits for the results when including geographically relevant stations (e.g. high-altitude stations) in the utilised datasets.

Quality control of SIRGAS ZTD products

AbstractThe SIRGAS-CON network currently has more than 450 continuous GNSS stations, and it is used for geodetic purposes. In atmospheric studies, it is used for ionospheric monitoring and for the estimation of zenith tropospheric delays (ZTDs). From the Neutral Atmosphere Analysis Center of SIRGAS, Centro de Ingeniería Mendoza Argentina, the final tropospheric products of this network are generated after several stages of quality controls and filtering, in order to be published on a daily basis in the official website of SIRGAS, since 2014 (https://sirgas.ipgh.org/en/products/tropospheric-delays). These products arise from adjusting the solutions estimated by different SIRGAS analysis centers. Prior to the combination, a quality control of the individual solutions is carried out, based on the precision estimator of each parameter and an internal control of each solution with respect to the combined value. In this work, we show the quality control process of the inputs, the selected tolerance and its justification. The internal consistency analysis of tropospheric parameters for a period of 7 years was carried out. We also exposed the improvements in the estimation of tropospheric parameters implemented during 2021 and its impact in the generation of the final ZTD products (in 99% of the stations the mean standard deviation of ZTD is less than 1 mm).

GNSS Storm Nowcasting Demonstrator for Bulgaria

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) is an established atmospheric monitoring technique delivering water vapour data in near-real time with a latency of 90 min for operational Numerical Weather Prediction in Europe within the GNSS water vapour service (E-GVAP). The advancement of GNSS processing made the quality of real-time GNSS tropospheric products comparable to near-real-time solutions. In addition, they can be provided with a temporal resolution of 5 min and latency of 10 min, suitable for severe weather nowcasting. This paper exploits the added value of sub-hourly real-time GNSS tropospheric products for the nowcasting of convective storms in Bulgaria. A convective Storm Demonstrator (Storm Demo) is build using real-time GNSS tropospheric products and Instability Indices to derive site-specific threshold values in support of public weather and hail suppression services. The Storm Demo targets the development of service featuring GNSS products for two regions with hail suppression operations in Bulgaria, where thunderstorms and hail events occur between May and September, with a peak in July. The Storm Demo real-time Precise Point Positioning processing is conducted with the G-Nut software with a temporal resolution of 15 min for 12 ground-based GNSS stations in Bulgaria. Real-time data evaluation is done using reprocessed products and the achieved precision is below 9 mm, which is within the nowcasting requirements of the World Meteorologic Organisation. For the period May–September 2021, the seasonal classification function for thunderstorm nowcasting is computed and evaluated. The probability of thunderstorm detection is 83%, with a false alarm ration of 38%. The added value of the high temporal resolution of the GNSS tropospheric gradients is investigated for a storm case on 24–30 August 2021. Real-time tropospheric products and classification functions are integrated and updated in real-time on a publicly accessible geoportal.

Combined Space- and Ground-Based GNSS Monitoring of Two Severe Hailstorm Cases in Bulgaria

Abstract Monitoring atmospheric conditions that lead to severe weather events is critical to their timely and accurate prediction and can help prevent of large economic losses. Bulgaria, located in southeastern Europe, has the highest mean number of thunderstorms and hailstorms. These events generally occur between April and September with a peak in July. In this study, both radio occultation (RO) and ground-based observations from the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) were used to study two severe hailstorms that occurred in 2014 and 2019. In both storms, a cold upper-air pool was detected in addition to a large specific humidity anomaly between 2 and 6 km. In the hailstorm that occurred in July 2014, there was an RO temperature anomaly between 10 and 14 km as well as a positive specific humidity anomaly between 4 and 6 km. The integrated vapor transport (IVT) reanalysis from ERA5, indicated that the high specific humidity over the Mediterranean could be tracked to an atmospheric river over the North Atlantic, which was connected to a tropical cyclone. In the hailstorm that occurred in May 2019, elevated IVT values were observed before the storm. During this storm, a negative temperature anomaly peak was observed in the RO profile at 11.3 km as well as a positive specific humidity anomaly between 2 and 4.5 km. The WRF Model and the ERA5 dataset could reproduce the temperature profiles for both storms relatively well; however, they tended to underestimate specific humidity. The RO profiles were complemented by ground-based GNSS tropospheric delays with high temporal resolution. The evaluation of the WRF with ground-based GNSS tropospheric products revealed a time delay between the modeled and observed developments of both hailstorms.

Towards operational multi-GNSS tropospheric products at GFZ Potsdam

Abstract. The assimilation of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) data has been proven to have a positive impact on weather forecasts. However, the impact is limited due to the fact that solely the zenith total delays (ZTDs) or integrated water vapor (IWV) derived from the GPS satellite constellation are utilized. Assimilation of more advanced products, such as slant total delays (STDs), from several satellite systems may lead to improved forecasts. This study shows a preparation step for the assimilation, i.e., the analysis of the multi-GNSS tropospheric advanced parameters: ZTDs, tropospheric gradients and STDs. Three solutions are taken into consideration: GPS-only, GPS–GLONASS (GR) and GPS–GLONASS–Galileo (GRE). The GNSS estimates are calculated using the operational EPOS.P8 software developed at GFZ. The ZTDs retrieved with this software are currently being operationally assimilated by weather services, while the STDs and tropospheric gradients are being tested for this purpose. The obtained parameters are compared with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 reanalysis. The results show that all three GNSS solutions show similar level of agreement with the ERA5 model. For ZTDs, the agreement with ERA5 results in biases of approx. 2 mm and standard deviations (SDs) of 8.5 mm. The statistics are slightly better for the GRE solution compared to the other solutions. For tropospheric gradients, the biases are negligible, and SDs are equal to approx. 0.4 mm. The statistics are almost identical for all three GNSS solutions. For STDs, the agreement from all three solutions is very similar; however it is slightly better for GPS only. The average bias with respect to ERA5 equals approx. 4 mm, with SDs of approx. 26 mm. The biases are only slightly reduced for the Galileo-only estimates from the GRE solution. This study shows that all systems provide data of comparable quality. However, the advantage of combining several GNSS systems in the operational data assimilation is the geometry improvement by adding more observations, especially for low elevation and azimuth angles.

A New Cumulative Anomaly-Based Model for the Detection of Heavy Precipitation Using GNSS-Derived Tropospheric Products

In recent years, tropospheric products obtained from ground-based global navigation satellite system (GNSS) measurements, especially the zenith total delay (ZTD) and precipitable water vapor (PWV) estimates, have advanced their usages in meteorological applications such as the detection of precipitation events. Generally, a cumulative anomaly (CA) time series of any atmospheric variable, which represents the long-term departure of the variable from its “normal” cycle, is widely used for quantitatively estimating the variable’s variations in response to a weather event. In this study, a new cumulative anomaly-based model (NCAM) containing 14 variables, including not only PWV and ZTD values but also their respective six types of derivatives, for detecting heavy precipitation was developed. The 6-h CA time series of the variables were calculated based on the data of hourly precipitation records and time series of ZTD and PWV collected at the co-located HKSC–King’s Park (KP) stations over the eight-year period 2010–2017. The model was evaluated using the 14 variables’ CA time series to detect heavy precipitation events happened in the summer months over the period 2018–2019, and precipitation records in the same period were used as the reference. Results demonstrated that 99.1% of heavy precipitation was correctly detected by the NCAM with a lead time of 2.87 h, and the false alarm ratio (FAR) score resulting from the model was reduced to 22.4%. In addition, two case studies were also conducted to verify the effectiveness of the NCAM. These results all provide a promising direction for the application of using the CA time series of GNSS tropospheric products to the detection of heavy precipitation events.

Detecting heavy rainfall using anomaly-based percentile thresholds of predictors derived from GNSS-PWV

Nowadays, tropospheric products obtained from the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) observations, e.g., precipitable water vapor (PWV), have heralded a new era of GNSS meteorological applications, especially for the detection of heavy rainfall. In meteorological studies, the anomaly temporal series of an atmospheric variable is widely used to investigate the deviations of its raw series from a certain “normal” cycle, which is defined based on a specific purpose, e.g., its responses to a specific weather event. In this study, a new model for detecting heavy rainfall using anomaly-based percentile thresholds of seven predictors derived from PWV was established. The seven predictors, which can effectively reflect the complete picture of the variations in the PWV series prior to heavy rainfall events, include hourly PWV value and its six types of derivatives. The diurnal mean values and anomaly-based percentile thresholds for these predictors were obtained based on their raw time series over the 8-year period 2010–2017 at the co-located HKSC-KP stations. Then these values were applied to the sample data over the period 2018–2019 for determining their anomalies and series of abnormality. Finally, the detection results were compared with the hourly rainfall records for evaluation. Results showed that 97.6% of heavy rainfalls were correctly detected with an average lead time of 4.13 h. The seasonal false alarm rate of 13.4% from the new model was reduced in comparison to existing models. By conducting the verification experiments of the new model at another two pair of stations in the Hong Kong region, similar results were also obtained. These results all indicate that the anomaly-based percentile thresholds of predictors derived from PWV can be effectively applied to the detection of heavy rainfall events.

Development and evaluation of the refined zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) models

The tropospheric delay is a significant error source in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) positioning and navigation. It is usually projected into zenith direction by using a mapping function. It is particularly important to establish a model that can provide stable and accurate Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD). Because of the regional accuracy difference and poor stability of the traditional ZTD models, this paper proposed two methods to refine the Hopfield and Saastamoinen ZTD models. One is by adding annual and semi-annual periodic terms and the other is based on Back-Propagation Artificial Neutral Network (BP-ANN). Using 5-year data from 2011 to 2015 collected at 67 GNSS reference stations in China and its surrounding regions, the four refined models were constructed. The tropospheric products at these GNSS stations were derived from the site-wise Vienna Mapping Function 1 (VMP1). The spatial analysis, temporal analysis, and residual distribution analysis for all the six models were conducted using the data from 2016 to 2017. The results show that the refined models can effectively improve the accuracy compared with the traditional models. For the Hopfield model, the improvement for the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and bias reached 24.5/49.7 and 34.0/52.8 mm, respectively. These values became 8.8/26.7 and 14.7/28.8 mm when the Saastamoinen model was refined using the two methods. This exploration is conducive to GNSS navigation and positioning and GNSS meteorology by providing more accurate tropospheric prior information.