Tropospheric parameters from multi-GNSS and numerical weather models: case study of severe precipitation and flooding in Germany in July 2021

Abstract

Storms and floods are the most frequent natural disaster in western and central Europe. Due to climate change, intensive storms with prolonged rain episodes will continue to cause even more destructive flooding. The good understanding and forecasting of such events are thus of uttermost importance. One of the ways to improve weather forecasts is the assimilation of external data, such as the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). In this study, a preparation of the multi-GNSS tropospheric products—zenith total delays, tropospheric gradients and slant total delays—for future operational assimilation is shown. For a severe precipitation event in July 2021 in Germany, the GNSS parameters from three systems—GPS, GLONASS and Galileo—are compared to three Numerical Weather Models (NWMs)—ERA5 reanalysis of ECMWF, ICON run by the German Weather Service and GFS run by the US Weather Service. The flood that followed the rainfall was the deadliest natural disaster in Germany since 1962. The results show that all considered GNSS solutions have a similar level of agreement with the NWMs. However, for the flood region in western Germany, the biases from the multi-GNSS solutions are smaller compared to the GPS-only solution. From the models, ICON has the highest agreement with the GNSS data for all considered tropospheric parameters. The best agreement with the ICON is probably due to its high horizontal resolution and, thus, low representative errors and the fine tuning of DWD’s regional model for the specific region (Germany).