Combined Space- and Ground-Based GNSS Monitoring of Two Severe Hailstorm Cases in Bulgaria

Abstract

Abstract Monitoring atmospheric conditions that lead to severe weather events is critical to their timely and accurate prediction and can help prevent of large economic losses. Bulgaria, located in southeastern Europe, has the highest mean number of thunderstorms and hailstorms. These events generally occur between April and September with a peak in July. In this study, both radio occultation (RO) and ground-based observations from the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) were used to study two severe hailstorms that occurred in 2014 and 2019. In both storms, a cold upper-air pool was detected in addition to a large specific humidity anomaly between 2 and 6 km. In the hailstorm that occurred in July 2014, there was an RO temperature anomaly between 10 and 14 km as well as a positive specific humidity anomaly between 4 and 6 km. The integrated vapor transport (IVT) reanalysis from ERA5, indicated that the high specific humidity over the Mediterranean could be tracked to an atmospheric river over the North Atlantic, which was connected to a tropical cyclone. In the hailstorm that occurred in May 2019, elevated IVT values were observed before the storm. During this storm, a negative temperature anomaly peak was observed in the RO profile at 11.3 km as well as a positive specific humidity anomaly between 2 and 4.5 km. The WRF Model and the ERA5 dataset could reproduce the temperature profiles for both storms relatively well; however, they tended to underestimate specific humidity. The RO profiles were complemented by ground-based GNSS tropospheric delays with high temporal resolution. The evaluation of the WRF with ground-based GNSS tropospheric products revealed a time delay between the modeled and observed developments of both hailstorms.