Economic Growth Trends Research Articles

EDB Macroreview, November 2017. Heading for Low Dollarization

The global background for the economic recovery of EDB member states has improved this year, in many ways due to rising oil prices and an improved economic growth outlook in the major centers of the global economy. Against the backdrop of improving regional trends in economic growth and mutual trade, we have revised our GDP growth forecasts for the EDB member states in 2017-2019. The appreciable acceleration of GDP growth in Russia beginning in the 2nd quarter of 2017 along with improvements in both foreign and domestic macroeconomic conditions have prompted an upgrade of our GDP growth forecast for 2017, from 1.4% to 1.7%. The preservation and continued improvement of external conditions for the Russian economy is shifting the balance of risks toward higher growth rates. Improvements in the Russian economic performance have delivered a boost to the economies of other EDB countries: the GDP growth forecasts for 2017 have been upgraded for Belarus, from 1.4% to 1.8%, Kyrgyzstan, from 3.7% to 4.0%, Tajikistan, from 6.2% to 7.2%, and Kazakhstan, from 3.4% to 3.7%. In the face of the continuing global imbalances and risks at the key centers of the global economy, EDB member states need to use their internal growth drivers, primarily those aimed at utilizing the potential for amassing investments. Possible drivers of this kind include a weaker monetary policy by reducing the benchmark interest rates of central banks, higher effectiveness of government infrastructure spending, and structural measures to boost labor productivity. In the longer term, the biggest challenge for the global economy consists of the lingering imbalances that have contributed to crises over the past decade. They primarily include the high levels of inequality both within and among countries. Notably, such inequality of incomes is in many ways exacerbated by the unequal involvement of different groups of countries in global integration processes. In this regard, the continuing paradox in the global economy is that the majority of countries that most need economic integration (such as the poorest nations or developing countries without access to the sea) are the most disadvantaged in terms of participation in regional or global economic unions or “clubs”. As part of our special report accompanying this macro overview, we focus particular attention on the dedollarization of the economies of EDB member states as yet another factor contributing to improvements in the regional economic environment. The level of dollarization has been declining this year in all EDB member states, in many ways due to the stabilization of exchange rates, lower inflation, improved economic activity and regained trust in the national currencies. Among the EDB member states, the most noticeable reductions in the level of dollarization (measured as the share of foreign currency deposits within the structure of the broad money supply) have been recorded in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan (the level of dollarization was close to 30% by mid-2017 in Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Russia). Such positive trends will contribute to a more effective monetary policy in the regional economies, more conducive conditions to support lower inflation, as well as conditions aiding stronger financial stability.

Statistical dynamics of regional populations and economies

Quantitative analysis of human behavior and social development is becoming a hot spot of some interdisciplinary studies. A statistical analysis on the population and GDP of 150 cities in China from 1990 to 2013 is conducted. The result indicates the cumulative probability distribution of the populations and that of the GDPs obeying the shifted power law, respectively. In order to understand these characteristics, a generalized Langevin equation describing variation of population is proposed, which is based on the correlations between population and GDP as well as the random fluctuations of the related factors. The equation is transformed into the Fokker–Plank equation to express the evolution of population distribution. The general solution demonstrates a transition of the distribution from the normal Gaussian distribution to a shifted power law, which suggests a critical point of time at which the transition takes place. The shifted power law distribution in the supercritical situation is qualitatively in accordance with the practical result. The distribution of the GDPs is derived from the well-known Cobb–Douglas production function. The result presents a change, in supercritical situation, from a shifted power law to the Gaussian distribution. This is a surprising result–the regional GDP distribution of our world will be the Gaussian distribution one day in the future. The discussions based on the changing trend of economic growth suggest it will be true. Therefore, these theoretical attempts may draw a historical picture of our society in the aspects of population and economy.

, 2017. (EDB Macroreview, November 2017. Heading for Low Dollarization)

, 2017. (EDB Macroreview, November 2017. Heading for Low Dollarization)

The Population Factor and Economic Growth and Development in Sub-Saharan African Countries

Background: The consequences of rapid population growth for development and policy options for addressing undesirable population trends remain at the core of demographic enquiry in developed and developing countries. In this paper, we re-examine the data on the particular relationship between population trends in sub-Saharan Africa and economic growth and development. We use case studies of Zambia and Botswana to demonstrate the implications of different rates of population growth in the push to eradicate different dimensions of extreme poverty and hunger.Methods: We use extensive review of published and grey literature; the search of databases of the United Nations and World Bank; and analysis of relevant secondary data. Results: The economic profile of Botswana and Zambia were similar in the late 1960s but since the early1980s, Botswana has maintained one of the world's highest economic growth rates, diversified its economy and ranked as the most wealthy and most stable country on the African continent.On the other hand, Zambia's economy lacked economic diversity, with heavy external indebtedness,and high levels of poverty. We show how divergent demographic indicators (fertility levels, population growth rates, and dependency ratios) for Botswana and Zambia since the 1960s offer understanding of their divergent economic trajectories over the same period. Data from 42 SSA countries show that average gender gap in primary enrolment is negatively associated with rates of population growth. Conclusions: Our analysis highlights the inevitable role of population factors in achieving key development goals and the need for interventions, such as investments in voluntary family planning, around alleviating pressures caused by rapid population growth to poverty reduction, maternal and child mortality, and women’s empowerment.

Balance sheet expansion and economic growth in China: Crowd in or crowd out?

Balance sheet expansion is crucial to understand the historic path, current slowdown and future trend of economic growth in China. As the financial system transforms national savings into investment, balance sheet expands simultaneously. According to changing impacts of balance sheet expansion on real economy, economic growth in China from 1998 to 2016 can be divided into the crowd-in stage and the crowd-out stage. In the first stage (1998–2007), balance sheet expansion crowded China's real economy in, raised TFP dramatically and accelerated economic growth. In the second stage (2008–2016), balance sheet expansion crowded China's real economy out, with stagnant TFP and decelerated economic growth. Balance sheet expansion has slowed down since 2014, but it continues to exert crowding out effects on China's real economy. We argue that balance sheet expansion is crucial for China's future economic growth. In the long term, structural reforms, especially reforms in the financial system, could increase growth potential significantly. In the short term, financial system reforms should focus on generating sufficient cash flows to boost aggregate demand.

Calculation of Star Proportion of Green Buildings: A Case Study on GM New District

In the context of exploring and implementing China's new urbanization, green eco-city have become a transformation model for urban development. Sharpening green buildings in the construction industry can significantly influence and determine China's economic growth trends, as well as the growth and overall development of its national economy. However, current green eco-city still lack appropriate standards and scientific theoretical basis to determine the target star program of green buildings. To fully implement the green building standards, establish and improve a sound technical standard system for the construction of green building demonstration areas, this study considers the spatial layout of green buildings as the core, adopts a plot potential evaluation method for evaluating a few green building plots, and utilizes four factors in verifying plots with great star potential. The study also establishes a system to calculate the star proportion of green buildings and applies the system in calculating the green building ratio of GM New District. Results indicate that the system can quantitatively analyze a plot potential, calculate the star proportion of green buildings scientifically and rationally, and provide some references for the construction of eco-city and the preparation of special planning for green buildings. The system construction is conducive to provide technical support for the construction of green eco-city. The improved system can be applied in the green building demonstration areas in China, and will be a reference model of constructing green building demonstration areas in the country.

Emerging markets: the impact of ICT on the economy and society

PurposeThe purpose of this research is to quantifiably measure the relationship between technological advancement, economic growth and societal employment trends across the Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) countries, while also describing various government initiatives and policy steps taken to promote technology development.Design/methodology/approachThis paper examines the relationship between the United Nations’ International Telecommunication Union’s Information and Communication Technology (ICT) development Index (IDI), gross domestic product (GDP) and unemployment data. The paper also reviews the broadband and e-readiness components of each BRIC nation to further describe the policies in adoption of ICT.FindingsThis research concludes that there is in fact a significant positive correlation between technology (as measured by IDI) and economy (as measured by a nation’s GDP) and there is a significant negative correlation between technology (as measured by IDI) and a nation’s unemployment rate benefiting the society.Originality/valueThis research seeks to describe the impact of Information Communication Technology on economic and society indices in BRIC. Paper contributions include an empirical measurement and relationship between technological advancement, economic growth and employment trends across the BRIC countries, while also describing various government policy initiatives taken to promote technology.

Analyzing Factors Affecting Economic Growth within CEMAC Countries

In simple terms, economic growth is the increase in the inflation-adjusted market value of the goods and services produced by an economy over time, which is most cases a year. It is measured as the percent rate of increase in real gross domestic product (GDP), usually in per capita terms. Economists have used both theory and empirical research to explain the cause of economic growth. People like Solow, Swann, and Romer have provided theoretical frameworks on which the majority of works are based. This paper aims to identify the factors affecting economic growth within CEMAC countries. A high volume of exports, plentiful natural resources, longer life expectancy, and higher investment rates have positive impacts on the growth of per capita gross domestic product developing countries. Much research needs to be done to distinguish the causes of growth in developing countries, as the scope of existing research is limited due to a lack of reliable data. To achieve the above, the paper highlights recent trends of economic growth of CEMAC countries in its first part, and then the main theories and determinants of economic growth, and finally the determinants of economic performance of a country.

Carbon intensity changes in the Asian Dragons. Lessons for climate policy design

There is a growing political interest in carbon intensity targets because they are the basis for climate pledges from relevant developing countries such as China. They may be also the basis for policy designs in developed countries like EU members. This paper develops a comprehensive econometric study on the main drivers of national emissions intensity in emerging countries in East Asia. This regional focus responds to their pivotal position in global economic growth and remarkable trends in carbon emissions intensity. The main hypothesis of this paper is that the nature of economic growth has a major effect on carbon intensity trends that deserves some attention. Accordingly, the novelty of this paper is to examine the contribution of “intensive” and “extensive” GDP growth for carbon intensity abatements. Labour productivity is revealed to be the main factor responsible for major carbon intensity reductions by Asian Dragons. Whereas household energy per capita and industrial energy per worker contributed in the opposite direction. Consequently, intensity targets may become “meaningless” for real climate action contributions if they do not take into account labour productivity trends.

Construction and analogue simulation of TERE model for measuring marine bearing capacity in Qingdao

In this study, the marine ecological cycle is divided into subsystems of science and technology (T), the environment (E), resources (R), and the economy (E). A TERE model is constructed to measure the marine bearing capacity by taking the energy output of oceans as the impetus for the entire marine system. We construct a system dynamics model of the marine bearing capacity in Qingdao, China and establish the TERE model to simulate the status of 30 variables when the system reaches a steady state. Accordingly, five schemes—population control, pollution control, fishery control, economic growth, and no change—are proposed to predict the trends in economic growth, population growth, and environmental development in Qingdao City over a five-year period and to determine the optimal scheme. Generally, the pollution control scheme is optimal, regardless of economic development or reductions in energy-consumption and emissions. Therefore, Qingdao City should enhance its environmental protection measures to ensure that the economy and environment develop in harmony.

Philippine resource efficiency in Asian context: Status, trends and driving forces of Philippine material flows from 1980 to 2008

Resource efficiency and sustainable resource management is critical to transitional economies to forward their pathway to sustainable development. To date, material flows analysis (MFA) and its database has become mature tools to diagnose the national resource utilization and efficiency, but still, few attentions and systematical analysis have been done for developing countries. With this circumstance, this paper conducted an innovative try on the in-depth MFA research on Philippines and its comparison in the Asian context, as an added value to current global MFA studies. Firstly, Philippine material flows from 1980 to 2008 and designed indicators reflecting resource utilization intensity and efficiency were analyzed and compared with other typical Asian economies. Dematerialization analysis based on modified Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) was further applied, so as to investigate the coupling statements and trends of resource consumption and economic growth in Philippines and compared with other Asian countries. Finally, driving forces for the changes of material flows were investigated with decomposition approach based on IPAT (Impacts = Population × Amenity × Technology) in periods divided according to key domestic development stages. Results highlighted a fluctuation of material flows, which in line with the unstable development (1980s to early 2000s) periods in Philippines. While in its stable development (after early 2000s), the EKC-like curve was revealed, indicating increasing resource consumption stage and requirement on strengthening resource efficiency countermeasures. IPAT analysis highlighted the critical role of economic instability on the fluctuation of DMC in the periods of 1980–1986, 1986–1996 and 1996–2002. While in the period of 2002–2008, with economy recovery and stable development, DMC increased and significantly offset by resource efficiency enhancement (DMC/GDP). In Asian context, compared with mature developed countries like Japan, Philippines didn’t reach the real dematerialization stage yet. While with comparison to fast developing countries like China and Malaysia, Philippines was by far achieving the material prosperity together with economic prosperity. Therefore, with setting stable economic as priority, to enhance resource efficiency measures like cleaner production and regional eco-industrial development, market measures on resource price and tax, as well as decision support tool development are critical to Philippines’ future sustainable resource management. With above highlights, this paper expects to provide critical insights to the ever-improvement of Philippines and other Southeast Asian countries’ resource efficiency and resource management.

The effects of european economic integration and the impact of Brexit on the uk immigrants from the CEE countries

Considering the debates regarding lower increase in the economic growth after Brexit, the main objective of this paper is to measure the positive impact of economic integration of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries on the UK economy and the effect of Brexit on the immigration from these countries to the UK. The European Union membership of some CEE countries increased, in average, the number of the UK immigrants by 12 times in the period 2004-2014 compared to the group of countries formed by Russia and Ukraine. The empirical fi ndings show positive economic effects of immigration on the UK’s economy, even if the pro Brexit group claimed that a control of immigration is necessary. CEE countries emigrants stimulated the UK economic growth, price stability and reduced the homicide rate. The effects of immigration on the unemployment rate, health and education spending were positive, but very low. According to mixed-effects Poisson models estimations, after Brexit the number of the UK immigrants from the CEE countries that are member of the EU might decrease by 2 times. This signifi cant decline in immigration might impose austerity measures, because of the fall in the economic growth trend with negative impact on the UK economy. Therefore, we recommend policies that focus more on high-skilled labour force than on the reduction of the number of immigrants. The UK should propose measures to slow the expected immigration decline in order to alleviate economic issues like decline in economic growth, decrease in labour productivity, cutting backs on public services.

Environmental impacts of transformative land use and transport developments in the Greater Beijing Region: Insights from a new dynamic spatial equilibrium model

This paper reports the insights into environmental impacts of the ongoing transformative land use and transport developments in Greater Beijing, from a new suite of dynamic land use, spatial equilibrium and strategic transport models that is calibrated for medium to long term land use and transport predictions. The model tests are focused on urban passenger travel demand and associated emissions within the municipality of Beijing, accounting for Beijing’s land use and transport interactions with Tianjin, Hebei and beyond. The findings suggests that background trends of urbanization, economic growth and income rises will continue to be very powerful drivers for urban passenger travel demand across all main modes of transport beyond 2030. In order to achieve the dual policy aims for a moderately affluent and equitable nation and reducing the absolute levels of urban transport emissions by 2030, road charging and careful micro-level coordination between land use, built form and public transport provision may need to be considered together for policy implementation in the near future.

Simulation and "Seduction" at the Policy Interface

Simulation and "Seduction" at the Policy Interface Kevin T. Baker (bio) At a press conference held at the Smithsonian Institution in 1972, an interdisciplinary team of researchers from one of the world's most prestigious scientific institutions predicted the end of industrial civilization. If current trends in population and economic growth continued, they argued, pollution and the depletion of natural resources would cause billions to die of starvation and environmentally induced illnesses by the middle of the 21st century. The MIT team behind this study, led by Donella and Dennis Meadows, reached this conclusion using a new method of computer simulation. Their work was sponsored by the Club of Rome, a predominantly European organization of industrialists, intellectuals, and academics led by Aurelio Peccei, a charismatic, globetrotting automobile executive. The Club of Rome had organized the Smithsonian conference to announce the release of The Limits to Growth, a book based on the MIT team's study. The Limits to Growth went on to sell over 12 million copies worldwide and was translated into nearly 40 languages.1 The book's harrowing predictions about the consequences of economic growth sparked a debate that dominated international politics in the 1970s and remains with us today. Although the book—and the "World 3" simulation model that formed the book's methodological core—carried the prestige of computation and quantification with it, this new kind of simulation lacked the prestige of econometric modeling, a discipline with a long postwar pedigree and a close relationship with policy making. Lay audiences may have been electrified (and terrified) by World 3's gloomy projections, but most policymakers and the people who advised them were decidedly more skeptical. Seeking to address these problems, the researchers in the new field of global modeling developed new ways of presenting their simulations to policymakers, leaning on the new affordances offered by time-sharing and interactive terminals. Beginning in the 1980s, scholars in science and technology studies have investigated how expert communities have incorporated computer simulation in their work and how these computer programs have altered the character of that work. This field has been defined by the work of Sherry Turkle, who, starting with The Second Self, has stressed the seductive, immersive nature of simulations. For Turkle, these technologies enable us to go beyond mere representation; simulation allows users to build, inhabit, and manipulate new worlds. "Simulation," as she puts it, "demands immersion and immersion makes it hard to doubt simulation."2 Yet this was not always the case. Practitioners in the field of global modeling found it all too easy for their audiences to doubt simulation. My dissertation deals with how researchers in the new field of global modeling inspired by the Limits report sought to address and overcome this skepticism. In the world of public policy, the usual way to do this was by offering quantitative evidence. Since the start of the 20th century, experts had relied on quantitative data to establish authority and to inspire confidence in the plausibility and objectivity of their recommendations. As historians of science such as Theodore Porter have shown, researchers began to offer their assessments in a quantified form at a historical moment when the culture's trust in elites was eroding in the face of a democratizing, growing society.3 Partly as the result of this shift, "trust in numbers" had come to stand in for trust in people in public policy debates in the first half of the 20th century. But the global modelers I study faced a situation where trust in numbers was no longer sufficient. These "simulationists" were working within a new, relatively unknown discipline with a methodology illegible to most policymakers and bureaucrats. Faced with these problems, as this discipline matured in the mid-1970s, its practitioners increasingly saw their goal as not only producing truth with their models but also imbuing them with trust. In doing so, designers reimagined policymakers as users and began to focus on creating interactive experiences that could incorporate the experienced judgment of these users. The spread of time-sharing and terminals in the 1970s offered new possibilities, including that of close real-time interactivity. Simulationists seized on this more intimate...

A value co-creation approach to industrial product-service systems

As present trends in economic and population growth continue, the natural environment is increasingly being stressed. More and more researchers, institutes and programs paid attention to Product-Service Systems (PSS) in the last decade because PSS integrates tangible artefact and intangible service to achieve sustainability, improve enterprise competitiveness and meet customer needs better. In order to respond to the transformation, this paper proposes the concept and approach of value co-creation for industrial PSS. In this paper, industrial product service is defined as service portfolio provided for satisfying customer's value demands based on sale of industrial product. Based on the discussion of value co-creation mechanism, a systematic solution to support the implementation of commerce management from different levels is proposed. Then the value co-creation process is discussed, which includes three cycles: 'value co-creation', 'ability development' and 'value realisation'. Finally, a case study is proposed to verify the feasibility and applicability.

A value co-creation approach to industrial product-service systems

As present trends in economic and population growth continue, the natural environment is increasingly being stressed. More and more researchers, institutes and programs paid attention to Product-Service Systems (PSS) in the last decade because PSS integrates tangible artefact and intangible service to achieve sustainability, improve enterprise competitiveness and meet customer needs better. In order to respond to the transformation, this paper proposes the concept and approach of value co-creation for industrial PSS. In this paper, industrial product service is defined as service portfolio provided for satisfying customer's value demands based on sale of industrial product. Based on the discussion of value co-creation mechanism, a systematic solution to support the implementation of commerce management from different levels is proposed. Then the value co-creation process is discussed, which includes three cycles: 'value co-creation', 'ability development' and 'value realisation'. Finally, a case study is proposed to verify the feasibility and applicability.

The impact of foreign direct investment in the Western Balkans

This paper intends to analyse the economic growth of Western Balkan Countries. Economic growth can be defined as the nation’s capacity to produce goods and service. The capability of the country depends mostly by its resources, such as level of technology, labour force, capital, productivity, etc. At first, our analysis will focus on a macroeconomic overview of these countries, and afterwards to the economic growth trends in these countries, given the fact these countries have joined1 or are preparing to join the European Union. Recently, the role of foreign direct investment in the host countries’ economies is more studies. In this paper, will deal with the performance and role of FDIs in economic growth of the Western Balkan countries. DOI: 10.5901/ajis.2016.v5n3s1p584

Does County Form of Government Impact Economic Growth and Development Trends? The Case of Four States

Counties have expanded the scope of their activities in the economic development process. However, limited research exists of the factors that influence economic growth and development trends of these unique communities. The primary focus of this case study analysis is to determine whether form of government has an impact on county economic growth and development trends while controlling for environmental context and demographic characteristics in Alabama, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Washington. To empirically test the impact that county form of government and environmental factors have on local economic growth and development trends, ordinary least squares regression is used. The results of this study show that form of government has only a marginal impact on county economic growth and development trends. County environmental factors are found to have a more substantive impact on the economic growth and development trends of counties across these four states.

Public Social Expenditures and Economic Growth: Evidence from Selected OECD Countries

There is a longstanding debate on whether the government expenditures contribute to economic growth. The endogenous growth theories, in general, predict that effective public expenditures can lead to increases in economic growth trends of countries regardless of their development stages or income levels. Starting from this prediction, this study aims to investigate the effects of governments’ social expenditure proxies namely education, health and social spending on economic growth performances presented by the changes in the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Using the feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) estimators based on a balanced panel dataset covering 2002-2013 periods of 18 OECD countries, the study concludes that social expenditures in all three dimensions significantly contribute to the economic growth. Overall results underline that public expenditures can be productive as an investment in the case of selected OECD countries.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Urban Growth Using GIS and Remote Sensing: A Case Study of the Colombo Metropolitan Area, Sri Lanka

Understanding urban growth spatiotemporally is important for landscape and urban development planning. In this study, we examined the spatiotemporal pattern of urban growth of the Colombo Metropolitan Area (CMA)—Sri Lanka’s only metropolitan area—from 1992 to 2014 using remote sensing data and GIS techniques. First, we classified three land-use/cover maps of the CMA (i.e., for 1992, 2001, and 2014) using Landsat data. Second, we examined the temporal pattern of urban land changes (ULCs; i.e., land changes from non-built-up to built-up) across two time intervals (1992–2001 and 2001–2014). Third, we examined the spatial pattern of ULCs along the gradients of various driver variables (e.g., distance to roads) and by using spatial metrics. Finally, we predicted the future urban growth of the CMA (2014–2050). Our results revealed that the CMA’s built-up land has increased by 24,711 ha (221%) over the past 22 years (11,165 ha in 1992 to 35,876 ha in 2014), at a rate of 1123 ha per year. The analysis revealed that ULC was more intense or faster during the 2000s (1268 ha per year) than in the 1990s (914 ha per year), coinciding with the trends of population and economic growth. The results also revealed that most of the ULCs in both time intervals occurred in close proximity to roads and schools, while also showing some indications of landscape fragmentation and infill urban development patterns. The ULC modeling revealed that by 2030 and 2050, the CMA’s built-up land will increase to 42,500 ha and 56,000 ha, respectively. Most of these projected gains of built-up land will be along the transport corridors and in proximity to the growth nodes. These findings are important in the context of landscape and urban development planning for the CMA. Overall, this study provides valuable information on the landscape transformation of the CMA, also highlighting some important challenges facing its future sustainable urban development.