Construction and analogue simulation of TERE model for measuring marine bearing capacity in Qingdao

Abstract

In this study, the marine ecological cycle is divided into subsystems of science and technology (T), the environment (E), resources (R), and the economy (E). A TERE model is constructed to measure the marine bearing capacity by taking the energy output of oceans as the impetus for the entire marine system. We construct a system dynamics model of the marine bearing capacity in Qingdao, China and establish the TERE model to simulate the status of 30 variables when the system reaches a steady state. Accordingly, five schemes—population control, pollution control, fishery control, economic growth, and no change—are proposed to predict the trends in economic growth, population growth, and environmental development in Qingdao City over a five-year period and to determine the optimal scheme. Generally, the pollution control scheme is optimal, regardless of economic development or reductions in energy-consumption and emissions. Therefore, Qingdao City should enhance its environmental protection measures to ensure that the economy and environment develop in harmony.