Reversal Of Trend Research Articles

Growth Performance and Mapping of Forest Productivity: An Analysis of Indian States

Forests are a precious gift of nature to human for their livelihood. The forest transition narrates the reversal of land use trends during the critical period from loss in net area under forest to the net gain in the long run. Despite the importance of forests for human beings, forests have been lagging behind in terms of income and employment generation in India. This paper aims to study the changing contribution and growth performance of forest sector in India. The study is based on secondary data collected from CSO and DES. In case of forest productivity (Gross Value Added per hector), the long-term growth trend was found to be in cyclical pattern. In the recent time starting from decade ending 2011-12 there is increasing trend cycle. It is also found that the growth trend of productivity of the sector was between -2 per cent and 1.8 per cent in the recent phase. It is around no change level in the recent decade. Downward slope of the fitted curve shows the convergence of productivity. But the rate of caching-up is not significant. The forestry model which is based on community can be useful for improving opportunities of livelihood and conservation.

P47. REVERSAL OF TRENDS IN U.S. BREAST SURGERY RATES: AN ANALYSIS FROM 2005-2017 USING THREE NATIONWIDE DATASETS

PURPOSE: Despite equivalent oncologic survivorship, U.S. lumpectomy rates previously declined in favor of more aggressive surgical options such as mastectomy, often performed in conjunction with a contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) with or without reconstruction. Using three national datasets, this study evaluates longitudinal trends in lumpectomy/mastectomy, CPM, and breast reconstruction rates, determining characteristics most associated with current surgical practice. METHODS: Trends in lumpectomy, mastectomy, and reconstruction rates were evaluated using the NSQIP, SEER, and NCDB databases from 2005-2017, further examining mastectomy with a focus on CPM. Longitudinal trends were analyzed with Cochran-Armitage Trend tests and Poisson regression. Multivariate logistic regression using NCDB identified predictors of the described surgeries. RESULTS: We analyzed 3,467,645 female surgical breast cancer patients. Lumpectomy rates reached a nadir between 2010-2013, with a significant increase thereafter (NSQIP: +1%/year; SEER +1.6%/year; NCDB: +1.6%/year, all p<0.001). Concurrently there was corresponding decrease in mastectomy rates. Both CPM and reconstruction rates increased significantly from 2005-2013 (p<0.001), but have since stabilized. CONCLUSION: Longitudinal data demonstrate a reversal of prior trends which favored more aggressive surgical management of breast cancer. This is also the first evidence of level breast reconstruction rates since passage of the WHCRA. Further research is required to understand factors driving these recent practice changes and associated impact on patient reported outcomes.

Are spatial patterns of Covid-19 changing? Spatiotemporal analysis over four waves in the region of Cantabria, Spain.

This research approaches the empirical study of the pandemic from a social science perspective. The main goal is to reveal spatiotemporal changes in Covid‐19, at regional scale, using GIS technologies and the emerging three‐dimensional bins method. We analyze a case study of the region of Cantabria (northern Spain) based on 29,288 geocoded positive Covid‐19 cases in the four waves from the outset in March 2020 to June 2021. Our results suggest three main spatial processes: a reversal in the spatial trend, spreading first followed by contraction in the third and fourth waves; then the reduction of hot spots that represent problematic areas because of high presence of cases and growing trends; and finally, an increase in cold spots. All this generates relevant knowledge to help policy‐makers from regional governments to design efficient containment and mitigation strategies. Our research is conducted from a geoprevention perspective, based on the application of targeted measures depending on spatial patterns of Covid‐19 in real time. It represents an opportunity to reduce the socioeconomic impact of global containment measures in pandemic management.

Socio-economic trajectories, urban area expansion and ecosystem conservation affect global potential supply of bioenergy

Biomass energy is projected to be a critical resource for defossilization of the energy system. While urban area extension and land conservation would constrain potential biomass supply, there is little understanding of their impacts. This paper presents global and regional bioenergy supply potential estimates by newly implementing urban area expansion in an integrated assessment model AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model). Scenarios were investigated as combinations of shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) with default and expanded urban area and conservation. The bioenergy potentials in 2050 with fixed urban area at base year level were in the range of 228 (SSP3) to 292 (SSP1) exajoules per year (EJ yr-1), corresponding to differences in fraction of land available for bioenergy crop production. The bioenergy potentials under urban expansion closely tracked trends in the reference SSP cases, but with decreases ranging from 4.48 (SSP1) to 6.95 (SSP5) EJ yr-1. While global total effects were small, regions experienced mixed results and in some cases a reversal of trends. Under conservation scenarios, reductions in bioenergy potential caused by urban expansion were observed to be lower except in some regions and scenarios. These results enhance the understanding of SSP patterns of bioenergy potential while at the same time revealing how global trends may fail to capture region-specific trends. The study concluded that: 1) urbanization may lack relevance for bioenergy at the global scale but becomes important for some regions, 2) loss of bioenergy potential can be curbed by encouraging compact urbanization as in SSP1 (Sustainable Development), zoning, and pursuing joint energy-conservation policies.

The Impacts of COVID-19 on Urban Tourism Destinations: The South African Experience

The impacts of COVID-19 for cities are generating an extensive international scholarship. This study contributes to the literature on the ramifications of urban tourism. The research is an assessment of what might be termed the early stage or ‘first round’ of the impacts of COVID-19. Using the IHS Global Insight local tourism base for South Africa the study analyses COVID-19 impacts during 2020 for the country’s eight metropolitan areas. It reveals the pandemic’s devastating impacts for tourism flows and correspondingly the diminished role of tourism in urban economies. An important finding is that South Africa’s metropolitan areas experienced a greater proportionate decline in tourism than the recorded national rate of decline. The consequence is a reduction during 2020 in the relative share of metropolitan areas in the South African tourism economy. This implies a reversal of established trends towards polarization and increasing city dominance that have been observed over the previous 20 years. The major burden of the collapse of urban tourism has fallen upon the five largest metropolitan areas which have been severely impacted by government regulations to halt the pandemic and resultant changes in consumer preferences for travel.

Active fires show an increasing elevation trend in the tropical highlands.

As an inherent element of the Earth's ecosystem, forest, and vegetation fires are one of the key contributors to and direct consequences of climate change. Given that topography is one of the key drivers of forest landscapes and fire behavior, it is important to clarify what the topographical characteristics and trends of global fire events are, particularly in the tropics. Here, we have investigated the variations in elevation of active fires at the continental to a global scale, including the tropics, the extra-tropics, the lowlands, and the highlands (greater than 200m above sea level [asl]), using the available MODIS Collection 6 active fire products (2001-2019). The main conclusions are: (1) the annual totality (average of 4.5million) of global active fire events decreased and over 97% of them occurred frequently below 1500m asl. (2) The tropics and the highlands accounted for ~74% (±3%) and 71% (±2%) of global active fires, respectively, and 77% (±2%) were observed in the tropical highlands. (3) From the beginning of the 21st century, active fires in the highlands displayed an upward elevational trend, particularly in the tropics, while the opposite trend was observed for the lowlands. More importantly, the rate of the increasing elevation in the highlands had a greater magnitude than that of decreasing elevation in the lowlands. (4) Finally, the United Nations collaborative program on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (UN-REDD) in Developing Countries seemed to slow down or even result in a reversal of the upward elevational trend of fire occurrences in the tropics for the partner countries, especially in the lowlands. In the context of global climate change and rampant fires, the trend of rising elevation for active fire occurrences, particularly in the tropical highlands, indicates that more vegetation burning events occur or will occur in hilly to mountainous areas, thus posing further threats to tropical forests and some important biodiversity refuges. More sustained efforts should be made by governments and the scientific community to instigate enhanced fire management practices and to conduct in-depth research programs.

The impact of COVID-19 on consumption poverty in Mozambique.

This study assesses the impact of COVID‐19 on household consumption poverty. To predict changes in income and the associated effects on poverty, we rely on existing estimated macroeconomic impacts. We assume two main impact channels: direct income/wage and employment losses. Our simulations suggest that consumption decreased by 7.1%–14.4% and that poverty increased by 4.3–9.9 percentage points in 2020. This points to a reversal of the positive poverty reduction trend observed in previous years. Poverty most certainly increased in the pre‐COVID period due to other shocks, so Mozambique finds itself in a deepening struggle against poverty.

Characterizing temporal trends of meteorological extremes in Southern and Central Ontario, Canada

Forecasts of increased frequency of meteorological extremes have received considerable attention due to their potential impact on the integrity of biotic communities, stability of terrestrial and aquatic environments, availability of ecosystem services, and broader societal prosperity. Canada is projected to experience greater warming rates than many other regions of the world and changes in meteorological extremes are predicted to be variable across the country. In this context, our goal is to evaluate the long-term trends of extreme meteorological variables (air and dew point temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation) in southern and central Ontario (from 42°N to 50°N), while considering the role dynamics of large-scale atmospheric oscillations (El Niño–Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation). Air temperature minima increased year-round, while temperature maxima mainly increased during the cooler months of the year. Consistent with recent evidence from the literature, our study identified an increase in the amount of atmospheric water since the 1950s, as shown by the rising trends in dew point temperature maxima and minima during winter and mid-summer/early-autumn, respectively. Likewise, we found a weak decline in the relative humidity during the warm season, and a more discernible declining trend during the cooler part of the year, which could be in turn reflective of the moderate change of temperature maxima and rising minima, respectively. Consistent with the broader evidence of a global terrestrial stilling, our analysis showed a declining occurrence of high wind-speed events across the entire study domain, and more frequent slow-wind speeds during both warm and cold periods of the year. Interestingly, a closer examination of temporal trends in calm wind frequency provides evidence of a recent reversal in the latter trend with diminishing prevalence of very calm wind conditions. We generally found a weakly increasing temporal trend with maximum total daily precipitation, but without a coherent spatial pattern within the broader study area. Our analysis showed that large-scale phenomena have a discernible signature mostly on air temperature and humidity variables, but had little impact on low relative humidity, high and low wind-speed, and precipitation variability. Given the modest impact of teleconnections on long-term temporal trends, our study concludes that the meteorological extremes are more directly influenced by regional and local heat and humidity balance processes rather than global-scale atmospheric circulation. The observed trends of air temperature, humidity, and wind speed extremes suggest a profound impact on the phenology of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and human experience of weather.

Morphological Development and Behaviour of a Shoreface Nourishment in the Portuguese Western Coast

Current coastal protection strategy in Portugal defines beach and shoreface nourishment as a valid measure to mitigate coastal erosion in some erosional hot-spots, being considered as an adaptation measure under the present climate change scenario, including the impacts of sea level rise. However, scant objective data on shoreface nourishments are available to evaluate performance of this type of intervention in mitigating beach erosion and managing coast risk. We present the first monitoring results of a ≈2.4 × 106 m3 shoreface nourishment on the Aveiro coast (Costa Nova—Ílhavo), the largest until now in Portugal, focusing on its morphological development, impacts on adjacent beaches due to alongshore spreading and cross-shore redistribution, and contribution to the sediment budget of the nourished sediment cell. The analyses are based on high-resolution coastal monitoring data, provided by the Portuguese COaStal MOnitoring Program (COSMO). A Multiple Monitoring Cell (MMC) approach was used to evaluate local and feeder efficiency of the nourishment, sediment budget exchanges within both the placement and wider survey domains (≈1 km2 and 12 km2, respectively). Results show rapid (ca. 6 months) morphological change over the placement area, with a decrease of about 40% of the initial volume. Fast onshore sediment redistribution explains part of this change, placed sand having merged with the pre-existing bar system increased the volume of the shallower nearshore. Longshore transport is reflected by increasing the robustness of the bar downdrift of the placement area and also explains the negative sediment budget (0.75 × 106 m3) of the survey domain, which corresponds to losses through its southern boundary. Sediment spreading also induced accretion of the subaerial section of Costa Nova beaches in front of the placement area, reversing their long-term erosive trend. In contrast, this trend persisted at downdrift beaches. This suggests that the time lag of the subaerial beach response to this intervention increases with the distance to the placement area, and reversal of the erosive trend will only be noticeable in the following years. This study provides new insights on the time scales of beach response to high-magnitude shoreface interventions in high-energy wave-dominated sandy coasts, which will support decision making regarding similar operations designed to manage erosional hot-spots elsewhere.

Political rationale, aims, and outcomes of health-related high-level meetings and special sessions at the UN General Assembly: Apolicy research observational study.

BackgroundRecognising the substantial political weight of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), a UN General Assembly special session (UNGASS) and high-level meetings (HLMs) have been pursued and held for 5 health-related topics thus far. They have focused on human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS, 2001), non-communicable diseases (NCDs, 2011), antimicrobial resistance (AMR, 2016), tuberculosis (TB, 2018), and universal health coverage (UHC, 2019). This observational study presents a comprehensive analysis of the political and policy background that prompted the events, as well as an assessment of aims, approaches, and ultimate outcomes.Methods and findingsWe investigated relevant agencies’ official documents, performed a literature search, and accessed international institutions’ websites for the period 1990–2020. Knowledgeable diplomatic staff and experts provided additional information. Outcomes were evaluated from a United Nations perspective based on national and international commitments, and funding trends. Eliciting an effective governmental response through UNGASSs/HLMs is a challenge. However, increased international commitment was evident after the HIV/AIDS (2001), NCDs (2011), and AMR (2016) meetings. The more recent TB (2018) and UHC (2019) HLMs have received general endorsements internationally, although concrete commitments are not yet documented. Although attribution can only be hypothesized, financial investments for HIV/AIDS following the UNGASS were remarkable, whereas following HLMs for NCDs, AMR, and TB, the financial investments remained insufficient to face the burden of these threats. Thus far, the HIV/AIDS UNGASS was the only one followed by a level of commitment that has likely contributed to the reversal of the previous burden trend. Limitations of this study include its global perspective and aerial view that cannot discern the effects at the country level. Additionally, possible peculiarities that modified the response to the meetings were not looked at in detail. Finally, we assessed a small sample of events; thus, the list of strategic characteristics for success is not exhaustive.ConclusionsOverall, UNGASSs and HLMs have the potential to lay better foundations and boldly address key health challenges. However, to succeed, they need to (i) be backed by large consensus; (ii) engage UN authorities and high-level bodies; (iii) emphasise implications for international security and the world economy; (iv) be supported by the civil society, activists, and champions; and (v) produce a political declaration containing specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound (SMART) targets. Therefore, to ensure impact on health challenges, in addition to working with the World Health Assembly and health ministries, engaging the higher political level represented by the UNGA and heads of state and government is critical.

Structure and Fragility of Zn-phosphate glasses: Results from multinuclear NMR spectroscopy and calorimetry

The structure of (ZnO)x(P2O5)100-x glasses with 35≤x ≤ 67 is investigated using 31P and ultra-high field 67Zn NMR spectroscopy. The 31P NMR results confirm a nearly binary Q-species distribution. The progressive decrease in the connectivity of the phosphate network upon addition of ZnO is manifested in a monotonic drop in Tg in the composition range 35≤x ≤ 55. The 67Zn NMR spectra indicate that the average Zn-O coordination number varies between 4 and 6 and increases progressively with increasing Zn content. The resulting increase in the connectivity of the Zn-O-P network compensates for the depolymerization of the P-O-P network, which is reflected in a reversal in the compositional trend in Tg for x > 55. In contrast to Tg, the fragility index m shows negligible composition dependence until x∼50, beyond which it increases rapidly with increasing Zn content in response to the progressive shortening of the Q2 chains.

Variation in Cause-Specific Mortality Rates in Italy during the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Study Based on Nationwide Data.

Italy was a country severely hit by the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic wave in early 2020. Mortality studies have focused on the overall excess mortality observed during the pandemic. This paper investigates the cause-specific mortality in Italy from March 2020 to April 2020 and the variation in mortality rates compared with those in 2015–2019 regarding sex, age, and epidemic area. Causes of death were derived from the national cause-of-death register. COVID-19 was the leading cause of death among males and the second leading cause among females. Chronic diseases, such as diabetes and hypertensive, ischemic heart, and cerebrovascular diseases, with decreasing or stable mortality rates in 2015–2019, showed a reversal in the mortality trend. Moreover, mortality due to pneumonia and influenza increased. No increase in neoplasm mortality was observed. Among external causes of death, mortality increased for accidental falls but reduced for transport accidents and suicide. Mortality from causes other than COVID-19 increased similarly in both genders and more at ages 65 years or above. Compared with other areas in Italy, the Lombardy region showed the largest excess in mortality for all leading causes. Underdiagnosis of COVID-19 at the beginning of the pandemic may, to some extent, explain the mortality increase for some causes of death, especially pneumonia and other respiratory diseases.

Deglobalization of Manufacturing Value Chains? A data-based approach

In manufacturing value chains (MVC), an increasing globalization used to be the persistent direction for decades. Recent crises massively disturbed global MVCs and lead to the question, if a trend reversal, a “deglobalization”, is about to happen. Some authors already see this trend reversal as a given, but did not provide any supporting data so far. This paper intends to shed light into the topic by reviewing underlying reasons, motives and key drivers for companies to operate in global MVCs, identifying corresponding indicators, and gathering data for these. The subsequent analysis of the data reveals a distinct slowdown of globalization growth rates, but no trend reversal, yet.

Are Your Labor Shares Set in Beijing? The View Through the Lens of Global Value Chains

We study the evolution of labor shares in 1995-2014 while taking into account international trade based on value added concepts. On average, the decline in labor shares (starting around 1980) accelerates in 2001-2007, after which labor shares recover somewhat. In contrast, skilled labor shares consistently increase. The acceleration in the decline in labor shares is associated with increased intensity of intermediate input exporting; this manifests in a sharp increase in the foreign component in upstreamness of industries and countries in global value chains (GVCs). China's global integration accounts for much of this. Declines in the price of investment together with capital-skill complementarity can explain both the consistent increase in skilled labor shares and the reversal of trend in overall labor shares. Compared to shares in GDP, labor shares in gross national product (GNP) are higher in countries with positive net FDI positions; the uneven spread of multinational activity contributes to greater inequality through this channel.

A Channeled Multilayer Perceptron as Multi-Modal Approach for Two Time-Frames Algo-Trading Strategy

FOREX (Foreign Exchanges) is a 24H open market with an enormous daily volume. Most of the used Trading strategies, used individually, are not providing accurate signals. In this paper, we are proposing an automated trading strategy that fits random market behaviors. It is based on neural networks applying triple exponential weighted moving average (EMA) as a trend indicator, Bollinger bands as a volatility indicator, and stochastic RSI as a momentum reversal indicator to prevent false indications in a short time frame. This approach is based on trend, volatility, and momentum reversal patterns combined with a market adaptive and a distributed multi-layer perceptron (MLP). It is called channeled multi-layer perceptron (CMLP) that is a neural network using channels and routines trained by previous profit/loss earned by triple EMA crossover, Bollinger Bands, and Stochastic RSI signals. Instead of using classic computations and Back-propagation for adjusting MLP parameters, we established a channeled multi-layer perceptron inspired by a multi-modal learning approach where each group of modalities (Channel) has its K_c That stands for a dynamic channel coefficient to produce a multi-processed feed-forward neural network that prevents uncertain trading signals depending on trend-volatility-momentum random patterns. CMLP has been compared to Multi-Modal GARCH-ARIMA and has proven its efficiency in unstable markets.

Educational Disparity in Job Mobility: The Great Trend Reversal

Educational Disparity in Job Mobility: The Great Trend Reversal

Identifying Financial Market Trend Reversal Behavior With Structures of Price Activities Based on Deep Learning Methods

In recent years, with the popularity of artificial intelligence (AI) applications, financial market forecasting based on deep learning models has gotten more attention in academia and industry. According to statistics, a long short-term memory network (LSTM) is the first choice for deep learning to deal with the financial time series predicting problems due to its internal memory that can process incoming input with the previous state. However, most of the research used the raw financial time series data composed of opening, closing, highest, lowest price, and transactional time as learning features to feed into models. This study proposed a novel approach focusing on appropriate structures that can organize the price activities as a bell shape curve and identify the greed and fear in the market with deep convolutional neural networks. In addition, this study also considered the influence of time causality on patterns. It is difficult to accurately catch the rapid changes in the market, especially the causal link between various patterns and trend reversal behavior while using only static features extracted by AI models. We designed disparate methods while generating images that could keep the time-variant features on structures and be extracted by convolutional neural networks. Each image was labeled as the upward trend to downward trend, downward trend to upward trend, and trend did not change according to reversals of overall price direction. Finally, to evaluate the availability of the trained model, two-stage experiments were carried out. The first stage of the experiment mainly evaluated the accuracy and profitability of trades following the models, and the second stage considered practical trading rules such as the stop-loss mechanism. The results of the first and second stages showed the proposed models had better profitability and extremely well-matched classification capabilities when compared with the state-of-the-art deep learning models.

Analysis of Earth’s polar motion and length of day trends in comparison with estimates using second degree stokes coefficients from satellite gravimetry

We analyzed the impacts of data span on trend estimates using Earth’s long-term polar motion time series, 1846-present, and using methodologies including singular spectrum analysis, and Panteleev’s filter to mitigate the time series containing transient signals. Our results show that the fluctuations of the mean rotational pole position, the Markowitz wobble, cannot be fully explained by the oceanic and atmospheric excitations. However, there exists plausible similarity with the variations of amplitudes of the Chandler wobble. To explain the abrupt deviation of the mean pole from the previous state after year 2000, we first compute Earth rotation excitations, using the temporal variations of the second-degree Stokes coefficients, C 21 , S 21 , estimated from GRACE, GRACE Follow-On and Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR), 2002–2021. We then compare their trend estimates with that of the Earth’s polar motion, and conclude that the drift of the pole is consistent with the climate-induced mass redistributions within the Earth system during the past two decades. However, the observed trend is not in exact agreement with the prediction values using contemporary glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process forward models. The analysis of the J 2 variations since 1976 from SLR and the corresponding length of day (LOD) changes, reveals a clear trend reversal around the year 2000. However, the observed J 2 variations can only explain ∼ 5 % of the long-term LOD changes. The remaining decadal signal in the LOD, usually accounted for by the angular momentum exchange at the core-mantle boundary, is observed to be anti-correlated with the Earth surface temperature anomaly. The geophysical explanation on these relationships remains elusive, and necessitates future studies.

How to overcome the paradoxes around worker dismissal in France and Italy?

The article deals with the current relationship between civil law and labour law in the light of Italian and French legislative reforms in the area of individual dismissal. The comparative approach provides an amazing data in common: civil law is the protective branch of law in the face of a liberalizing labour law. The principle number 11 of the Life Time Contract’s doctrine is used to enhance the principle of unity of the legal system and overcome this paradoxical trend reversal. The proposed theoretical reconstruction doesn’t forget to consider the European dimension and, particularly, a recent decision of the European Committee of Social Rights.

Evaluation of surface solar radiation trends over China since the 1960s in the CMIP6 models and potential impact of aerosol emissions

Accurate representation of surface solar radiation (SSR) trends is an important indicator for global climate models (GCMs) to correctly reproducing the historical climate evolution. This study examines the annual mean SSR trends in China under all-sky and clear-sky conditions for the period 1961–2014 in 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models using the latest homogenized in-situ SSR dataset. The site-observed annual mean SSR over China shows a significant decadal decline during 1961–2005 but an uptrend during 2006–2014, with the trends being −6.4 (−8.6) W m−2 and + 2.5 (+5.9) W m−2 per decade under all-sky (clear-sky) condition, respectively. All CMIP6 models simulate the sustained decline in SSR over China for the period 1961–2005 but significantly underestimate the dimming. The model results show trends of −1.9 ± 0.5 W m−2 and -2.5 ± 0.7 W m−2 per decade during 1961–2005 under all-sky and clear-sky conditions, respectively, which are around one third of the observed results. Furthermore, the models fail to capture the reversal of SSR trends in China during 2006–2014, with the trends being −1.1 ± 1.7 W m−2 and -2.2 ± 0.9 W m−2 per decade under all-sky and clear-sky conditions, respectively. We infer that the underestimation of anthropogenic aerosol emissions, especially absorbing black carbon emissions cause the underestimated simulation of SSR in dimming period over China. After 2005, the unseasonal increase in carbonaceous aerosol emissions and the weaker decline of sulfur dioxide emissions in China in the models result in an opposite SSR trends relative to the trends based on the site-observations. Our results suggest that improving the anthropogenic aerosol emissions inventory will be useful for generating a more accurate reproduction of the regional SSR evolution over China in GCMs.