Land Use Trends Research Articles

Factors driving land use change and forest distribution on the coastal plain of Mississippi, USA

Forest distribution is controlled by broad regional trends in land use and by the specific natural and anthropogenic features of a particular site. To separate these influences in landscapes of the Southeastern coastal plain we describe land cover history outside the small city of Hattiesburg, Mississippi, USA, a rural landscape originally occupied by pine savanna and mixed forests. Land cover was recorded at 296 point locations regularly spaced on a 1km grid. Aerial photographs from 1938, 1958, 1970, 1982, 2000, and 2010 illustrated a progression from open land to pine savanna, Southern Mixed Hardwood Forest (SMF), and built land cover, with low-density residential development encroaching after 1980 – a pattern reflecting broad regional trends in the mid and late 20th century. Examination of point-transitions showed frequent conversion between recent clearcuts and SMF, indicating rapid cycling of small parcels in short rotation forestry, and long-term conversion of abandoned agricultural land to SMF, reflecting regional regrowth following the lumber boom of the early 20th century. Pine savanna declined by introgression of hardwood species rather than by cutting. Logistic regression identified land on floodplains and distant from developed areas as most likely to regenerate as SMF. After 1980 urban expansion was most likely to occur close to existing buildings and arterial roads, suggesting nucleation outside the historical urban core. Thus, modern forest distribution has been decoupled from the natural environmental template. Recent land use changes appear to be driven by proximity to the expanding city rather than regional economic trends.

Changes in aquatic plants in the Italian volcanic-lake system detected using current data and historical records

Lake littoral ecosystems help to preserve a significant degree of local and regional species richness. However, lakes are subjected to a range of human impacts that dramatically affect the local biota structurally and functionally. Unfortunately, the data available for numerous taxonomic groups in many river and lake systems are still somewhat scanty, especially in the Mediterranean area. We conducted a floristic study in 2010 and compared our data with historical data recorded over the last century (1908–2006) in six Italian volcanic lakes (central-southern Italy). Floristic data about charophytes and vascular plants were collected according to standardized sampling procedures along randomly selected transects and were partitioned into four functional groups (emergent species, floating-leaved, submerged and free-floating macrophytes).A total of 49 aquatic taxa was recorded, including 11 taxa of charophytes, emphasizing the contribution of local stoneworts to regional and European species richness. Temporal trends in macrophyte species richness and distribution over the last century mirrored trends in lakeshore development and catchment land use, and water quality. In the long term, a clear reduction in emergent species and submerged macrophytes richness was recorded in some lakes; on the other hand, in recent decades a progressive improvement of water quality supports the partial recovery of aquatic plant richness in others. As a result, the loss of native aquatic plants is concentrated along the lakeshores and in the first meters of depth.

Landscape Influences on Recent Timberline Shifts in the Carpathian Mountains: Abiotic Influences Modulate Effects of Land-Use Change

Expected shifts in the upper forest limit of many mountain ranges due to anthropogenic climate change will likely be constrained by current and historical land-use practices. We used historical maps and Landsat satellite imagery to analyze timberline change for the entire Carpathian range in Eastern Europe. Our objectives were (1) to compare 19th and 20th century timberline elevations across regions differing in sociopolitical history and land-use trends; and (2) to quantify how land-use patterns and environmental influences were associated with changes in timberline position. Timberline changes across geopolitical regions were consistent with regional variations in re-settlement rates and population shifts following World War II. Important predictors for timberline rise were the mainly biophysical factors of slope steepness, timberline elevation, shrub cover, topographic curvature, aspect, and proximity to roads. For horizontal migration, important predictors were proximity to shepherd’s huts, elevation, population density, forest composition, and shrub cover. Overall, cultural influences were critical for understanding the response of Carpathian timberlines to global change, yet biophysical influences proved important where reforestation was already occurring. In mountain ranges with prevalent agricultural abandonment, forest migration associated with climate warming may lead to increased contrast in the forest-alpine ecotone between areas with and without intensive land-use.

English

  Land use and land cover changes are important processes that influence the ecological integrity of wildlife dispersal areas and the dynamics of human-wildlife conflicts in rangelands around protected areas. This study investigated trends in both land use and land cover changes in Taveta District.   Remote Sensing imageries for Taveta District were analysed for the years 1987, 2001, and 2011. Percentage changes in land use and land cover types for the years 1987 to 2001, 2001 to 2011 and 1987 to 2011 were determined. Between 1987 and 2011, significant (p < 0.05) changes occurred in woodlands, sisal plantations, rainfed and irrigated agricultural areas. Shrublands, forests and water bodies showed no significant changes. Wildlife habitats are expected to further decrease significantly due to agricultural expansion. Land use and cover changes resulted from agricultural expansion and human population growth. The land use and cover maps produced can be used as input to decision making that balances restrictions on human land use while maintaining the ecological function of the landscape, through designation of Zones of Interaction as a first step to identifying opportunities that satisfy conservation and livelihood needs. Proper land use planning and community awareness of the implications of these land use and land cover changes are necessary.   Key words: Land use change, land cover change, rangelands, Taveta district, human-wildlife conflicts.

Land-use monitoring by topographic data analysis

The rate of land consumption is an important factor to be considered within policies on sustainable land use aiming to reduce demand for settlement and traffic areas. As an expression of the political intent to achieve sustainable development, the German government announced to reduce the consumption of open space for settlement or transportation infrastructure significantly by 2020. Progress toward such specific goals can, of course, only be monitored if planning authorities are supplied with up-to-date and precise information on land use. This article presents one approach to the calculation of trends in land use that uses geoprocessing of topographic base data. Among the advantages of this approach are the nationwide availability of data with homogeneous quality and regular mandatory updating by surveying authorities. The spatial analysis of topographic base data is currently a highly automated process, which means geoprocessing procedures can be repeated regularly in order to realize time series. Such systematic monitoring of land use is undertaken by the project Monitor of Settlement and Open Space Development (IOER Monitor). By mid-2013, the fourth time period based on data from 2012 will be available online, ensuring that information on a wide range of land-use types is provided for a time series beginning back in 2006. Thus, the IOER Monitor is a convenient tool for the analysis and monitoring of land use for all administrative units ranging from German municipalities (approximately 12,000 in number) to the country as a whole, as well as for raster cells ranging from 100 m to 10 km.

Wildlife or livestock? New directions for developing communal rangelands in South Africa

The paper agrees with three fundamental points raised by Vetter (in this issue), whilst highlighting an emerging trend in wildlife land use, which should be considered in policy making. Firstly, the paper supports the argument that communal rangelands are important as objects of biodiversity conservation and, secondly, the argument that livestock production alone is not sufficient as a mechanism for alleviating poverty, but rather livelihoods diversification and multisectoral strategies are required for this purpose. Lastly, the paper supports the need for mechanisms to ensure tenure security for sustainable use of communal rangelands. I argue that the historical shift to wildlife land use previously observed on private farms in South Africa is now inevitable on communal rangelands and will require explicit consideration in the policy on communal rangelands. Although such development in the communal rangelands has potential to meet the important goals of livelihoods diversification as indicated by Vetter, it also has potential to threaten existing rural livelihoods. The paper suggests several issues to be considered as wildlife becomes part of the rural landscape in some areas, in addition to issues raised by Vetter relevant to policy making.

Historical U.S. Cropland Areas and the Potential for Bioenergy Production on Abandoned Croplands

Agriculture is historically a dominant form of global environmental degradation, and the potential for increased future degradation may be driven by growing demand for food and biofuels. While these impacts have been explored using global gridded maps of croplands, such maps are based on relatively coarse spatial data. Here, we apply high-resolution cropland inventories for the conterminous U.S. with a land-use model to develop historical gridded cropland areas for the years 1850-2000 and year 2000 abandoned cropland maps. While the historical cropland maps are consistent with generally accepted land-use trends, our U.S. abandoned cropland estimates of 68 Mha are as much as 70% larger than previous gridded estimates due to a reduction in aggregation effects. Renewed cultivation on the subset of abandoned croplands that have not become forests or urban lands represents one approach to mitigating the future expansion of agriculture. Potential bioenergy production from these abandoned lands using a wide range of biomass yields and conversion efficiencies has an upper-limit of 5-30% of the current U.S. primary energy demand or 4-30% of the current U.S. liquid fuel demand.

Darwinian Agriculture: how understanding evolution can improve agricultureR.Ford Denison2012. Princeton University Press

Agroecosystems not only comprise a significant proportion of land-use, but also involve conflicting imperatives to expand or intensify production while simultaneously reducing environmental impacts. These imperatives are underpinned by food security concerns, climate predictability and global connectivity, reinforcing the likelihood of further major changes in agricultural landscapes and associated production systems in coming decades. These changes are likely to include adoption of novel genetic technologies and agronomic practices, shifts in patterns of land-use and perhaps even new crop species. Ford Denison's new book, Darwinian Agriculture: how understanding evolution can improve agriculture, makes a strong and very personal case for the application of evolutionary principles to addressing the twin challenges of feeding an expanding human population while working to reduce agriculture's environmental footprint. Of course, the use of eco-evolutionary principles is not new in agriculture (e.g. crop breeding and management of selection for pest resistance), but given land-use trends and other transformative processes in production landscapes, ecological and evolutionary research in agroecosystems must consider such issues in a broader systems' context (Thrall et al. 2011). I fully agree with Denison that evolutionary concepts have potential to help us deal more effectively with these complex problems and that multidisciplinary approaches are needed to improve both productivity and sustainability.

English

  Land degradation and persistent decline in agricultural productivity in Nigeria are issues of concern to government since the food production system is adversely affected. This has affected the carrying capacity of available natural resources with many of the rapidly increasing population not able to meet their basic food needs. Policy makers have now realized that for any sustainability of economic growth and development, appropriate policy to reverse the trend of land degradation is a necessity that cannot be compromised. This review shows that the trends of land use have shown relatively high degree of dependence on forestland for agricultural expansion and other industrial/urban uses. It is therefore important for the government to ensure adequate land use planning in conjunction with all stakeholders in the agricultural sector. Such plans should critically evaluate nation’s needs of land in the nearest future and how current uses can ensure sustainability in the long term period.   Key words: Land use, degradation, sustainability, carrying capacity, Nigeria.

Análise multitemporal do uso e ocupação do solo entre 1987 e 2004 na zona de expansão urbana norte de Londrina-PR, utilizando Sensoriamento Remoto (SR) e Sistema de Informações Geográficas (SIG)

The article makes a multitemporal analysis of use/occupation of the soil in the area of urban sprawl North of Londrina-PR the years between 1987 and 2004, using images from Landsat-5 satellites and Spot-5. Were applied images digital processing techniques (PDI) as color combinations (false color), processing IHS (Intensity, Hue, Saturation) and supervised maximum likelihood classification (MAXVER), in order to get the classes of use/occupation of the soil. The results are presented in thematic maps showing qualitatively and quantitatively the real condition of use and occupation of land, noting that the region is not being environmentally preserved according to the established laws because its forest cover has less than 20% of forests, the minimum required by law. The urban area and ranches had an increasing advance, confirming the trend of land use in the region for the unplanned way urban occupation. In turn the pasture and agricultural activity had a higher prevalence of 50% in the area, showing the importance of rural activity for the region.

Analysis multitemporal of the soil use and occupation between 1987 and 2004 in the northern urban expansion zone of Londrina-PR, using Remote Sensing (SR) and the Geographical Information System (GIS).

The article makes a multitemporal analysis of use/occupation of the soil in the area of urban sprawl North of Londrina-PR the years between 1987 and 2004, using images from Landsat-5 satellites and Spot-5. Were applied images digital processing techniques (PDI) as color combinations (false color), processing IHS (Intensity, Hue, Saturation) and supervised maximum likelihood classification (MAXVER), in order to get the classes of use/occupation of the soil. The results are presented in thematic maps showing qualitatively and quantitatively the real condition of use and occupation of land, noting that the region is not being environmentally preserved according to the established laws because its forest cover has less than 20% of forests, the minimum required by law. The urban area and ranches had an increasing advance, confirming the trend of land use in the region for the unplanned way urban occupation. In turn the pasture and agricultural activity had a higher prevalence of 50% in the area, showing the importance of rural activity for the region.

Baseline time accounting: Considering global land use dynamics when estimating the climate impact of indirect land use change caused by biofuels

Abstract Purpose Current estimations of the climate impact from indirect land use change (ILUC) caused by biofuels are heavily influenced by assumptions regarding the biofuel production period. The purpose of this paper is to propose a new method (baseline time accounting) that takes global land use dynamics into account that is consistent with the global warming potential, that is applicable to any phenomenon causing land use change, and that is independent of production period assumptions. Methods We consider ILUC in two forms. The first is called “accelerated expansion” and concerns ILUC in regions with an expanding agricultural area. The second is called “delayed reversion” and concerns ILUC in regions with a decreasing agricultural area. We use recent trends in international land use and projections of future land use change to assess how ILUC from biofuels will alter the development in global agricultural land use dynamics compared to the existing trend (i.e., the baseline development). We then use the definition of the global warming potential to determine the CO2 equivalence of the change in land use dynamics. Results and discussion We apply baseline time accounting to two existing ILUC studies in the literature. With current trends in global agricultural land use, the method significantly reduces the estimated climate impact in the previous ILUC studies (by more than half). Sensitivity analyses show that results are somewhat sensitive to assumptions regarding carbon sequestration and assumptions regarding postreversion ecosystems. Conclusions The global dynamic development in land use has important implications for the time accounting step when estimating the climate impact of ILUC caused by biofuel production or other issues affecting land use. Ignoring this may lead to erroneous conclusions about the actual climate impact of ILUC. Several land use projections indicate that the global agricultural area will keep expanding up to and beyond 2050. We therefore recommend to apply the baseline time accounting concept as an integrated part of future ILUC studies and to update the results on a regular basis.

DEFINING DENSITIES FOR URBAN RESIDENTIAL TEXTURE, THROUGH LAND USE CLASSIFICATION, FROM LANDSAT TM IMAGERY: CASE STUDY OF SPANISH MEDITERRANEAN COAST

Abstract. In the recent epoch, there has been considerable debate about the urban development along the European Mediterranean area, also undertaken by the European Authorities, and in particular regarding the role of spatial planning in order to improve sustainable trends of land use. Great transformations along the Spanish Mediterranean coast have generated considerable changes in the traditional structure of the landscape, far from the typical model of Mediterranean cities, and the rapidity of these modern dynamics has been a significant impact on the spatial patterns, also associated with the expansion of urban connections through the whole territory. The increase of large peri-urban areas, sprawled on the territory, and caused by uncontrolled, uncoordinated and unplanned growth, inevitably has brought the cancellation of clearly identifiable boundaries between the city and the rural areas. Spatial analysis, within quantitative geography and linked to the emerging field of regional science, represents a synthesis of urban and regional economics that is consistent with the complex sciences which dominate the simulation of urban form and functions. Most urban models deal with the city in terms of the location of its economic and demographic activities, but there is also a move to link such models to urban morphologies (Batty 2008). According with these concepts, the investigation, also supported by the use of technologies such as remote sensing and GIS, aims to complement the spatial analysis of regional development dynamics by classifying urban structures and quantifying some of main characteristics based on morphological features.

Modeling exurban development near Washington, DC, USA: comparison of a pattern-based model and a spatially-explicit econometric model

The development of private rural lands can significantly fragment landscapes, with potentially negative consequences on ecosystem services. Models of land-use trends beyond the urban fringe are therefore useful for developing policy to manage these environmental effects. However, land-use change models have been primarily applied in urban environments, and it is unclear whether they can adequately predict exurban growth. This study compared the ability of two urban growth models to project exurban development in north-central Virginia and western Maryland over a 24-year period. Pattern-based urban growth models (such as SLEUTH) are widely used, but largely mimic patterns that emerge from historic conditions rather than allowing landowner decision-making to project change. In contrast, spatially-explicit econometric models (such as the complementary log–log hazard assessed in this study) model landowner choices as profit-maximizing behavior subject to market and regulatory constraints. We evaluated the two raster-based models by comparing model predictions to observed exurban conversion at pixel and county scales. The SLEUTH model was more successful at matching the total amount of new growth at the county scale than it was at the pixel scale, suggesting its most appropriate use in exurban areas is as a blunt instrument to forewarn potential coarse-scale losses of natural resources. The econometric model performed significantly better than SLEUTH at both scales, although it was not completely successful in fulfilling its promise of projecting changes that were sensitive to policy. The lack of significance of some policy variables may have resulted from insufficient variation in drivers over our study area or time period, but also suggests that drivers of land use change in exurban environments may differ from those identified for urban areas.

Suzhou Urban Land-Use Change and its Prediction Analysis

Based on the 2000 ETM+ and 2009 TM images, the Suzhou urban district as the research object, supported by the remote sensing software, using the support vector machine (SVM) classification to extract the urban landscape types in 2000-2009, analyzing the land-use dynamic change and mutual transformation in Suzhou urbanization process from the land-use type transition matrix, dynamic degree, development degree and consumption reduction degree, and using the Markov model to forecast the Suzhou urban land-use dynamic change trend in 2009, 2018, 2027 and 2036, for the future Suzhou land-use dynamic monitoring, land-use planning and adjustment, ecological environment regulation and restoration, and land resource sustainable utilization to provide the theoretical basis. The results show that Suzhou urban land-use occurred to a large changes from 2000 to 2009, the construction land area increased significantly, the cultivated land area reduced sharply, the wood land and water body area slightly increased. According to the Markov model prediction results from 2009 to 2036, the cultivated land and wood land area will continue to reduce, the construction land and water body area will continue to increase, which makes the contradiction between the cultivated land protection and the urban expansion will become more prominent.

Overview of Mollisols in the world: Distribution, land use and management

Liu, X., Burras, C. L., Kravchenko, Y. S., Duran, A., Huffman, T., Morras, H., Studdert, G., Zhang, X., Cruse, R. M. and Yuan, X. 2012. Overview of Mollisols in the world: Distribution, land use and management. Can. J. Soil Sci. 92: 383–402. Mollisols – a.k.a., Black Soils or Prairie Soils – make up about 916 million ha, which is 7% of the world's ice-free land surface. Their distribution strongly correlates with native prairie ecosystems, but is not limited to them. They are most prevalent in the mid-latitudes of North America, Eurasia, and South America. In North America, they cover 200 million ha of the United States, more than 40 million ha of Canada and 50 million ha of Mexico. Across Eurasia they cover around 450 million ha, extending from the western 148 million ha in southern Russia and 34 million ha in Ukraine to the eastern 35 million ha in northeast China. They are common to South America's Argentina and Uruguay, covering about 89 million and 13 million ha, respectively. Mollisols are often recognized as inherently productive and fertile soils. They are extensively and intensively farmed, and increasingly dedicated to cereals production, which needs significant inputs of fertilizers and tillage. Mollisols are also important soils in pasture, range and forage systems. Thus, it is not surprising that these soils are prone to soil erosion, dehumification (loss of stable aggregates and organic matter) and are suffering from anthropogenic soil acidity. Therefore, soil scientists from all of the world's Mollisols regions are concerned about the sustainability of some of current trends in land use and agricultural practices. These same scientists recommend increasing the acreage under minimum or restricted tillage, returning plant residues and adding organic amendments such as animal manure to maintain or increase soil organic matter content, and more systematic use of chemical amendments such as agricultural limestone to replenish soil calcium reserves.

Drivers and impacts of land-use change in the Maasai Steppe of northern Tanzania: an ecological, social and political analysis

In this article, we discuss the drivers, causes, and impacts of land-use change in the Maasai Steppe of northern Tanzania. Remote sensing data were used to analyze land-use change, and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) was used to link-up with wildlife population dynamics and livestock distribution data derived from aerial censuses. Agriculture increased fivefold between 1984 and 2000, while human population increased exponentially from 3.3% p.a. in 1988 to 3.4% p.a. in the same period. Wildlife migratory routes declined from nine in 1964 to five in 2000, out of which three were seriously threatened with blockage by the extensive cultivation. Recurrent droughts and diseases have contributed to the declining livestock economy over the years due to livestock loss and the unpredictable and erratic rainfall has limited their recovery. To reverse the on-going trends in land use, proper land-use plans should be instituted in parallel with community-based wildlife ventures to maintain long-term ecosystem viability.

Interactive Relations between Urban Arterial Transit Route and Land-Use under TOD Mode

To study interactive relations between urban arterial transit route and land-use under TOD mode, the features of urban arterial transit route and its surrounding land-use were analyzed. An interactive relation model between urban arterial transit route and land-use was established with nonlinear differential equations. Dynamic evolvement and trends of urban arterial transit route and land-use were analyzed, and stability and conditions on equilibrium states were shown by differential equation stability theory. A simulation was done to show that the development of arterial transit route in urban had a trend to surpass traffic capacity of equilibrium state.

Projecting landscape changes in southern Chile: Simulation of human and natural processes driving land transformation

We describe a simulation model representing the most important human and natural factors driving land use and cover changes (LUCC) in southern Chile. We evaluate the model by examining its ability to simulate LUCC observed over the past three decades, conduct a sensitivity analysis of simulated trends to changes in important model parameters, and use the model to project likely landscape transformations over the next decade under “as usual,” “pessimistic,” and four “optimistic” scenarios. The model consists of five submodels representing LUCC on two distinct soil formations (volcanic ash and gleysols) and four major land use categories: native forest, agricultural land, shrubland, and urban land. Land use and cover sub-categories include old growth forests, secondary forests, and low and flooded shrubland. The model simulated well general historic trends in forest cover, agricultural land, shrubland, and urban land: from a forest-dominated landscape in 1976 to a landscape dominated by shrubland and agricultural land by 2007. Forest loss, forest degradation by logging and clearing for agriculture were the most important direct drivers of LUCC: forest logging and clearing were most important from 1976 to 1985, whereas after 1985 logging for firewood, driven by population growth, was most important. Sensitivity analysis indicated that model projections of general trends in the main land use and cover categories were not overly sensitive to changes in important model parameters, although further study is necessary to improve our estimates of the proportion of pasture requirements supplied by clearing low shrubland. Projections of LUCC suggested that a reduced amount of secondary forest would be left by 2017 if no actions are taken to reduce forest loss (“as usual”). Increasing population (“pessimistic scenario”) resulted in similar trajectories than those predicted by the as usual scenario, whereas reducing logging for firewood and increasing forest recruitment from shrubland could reduce loss of native forest by nearly one-third (“optimistic scenarios”). Surprisingly, shrubland exhibited the most complex and influential dynamics in all scenarios, being the immediate outcome of forest loss and the main long-term source of land for agriculture, urban expansion, and forest recovery. Few studies in Chile, or elsewhere, have considered the importance of this intermediate successional stage. Of the scenarios simulated, financial incentives targeted toward channeling shrubland into regenerated forest seemed most promising, although obstacles to such a management strategy exist.

Exploring some of the myths of land use change: Can rural to urban migration drive declines in biodiversity?

Forest transition theory describes a reversal in land-use trends for a given area, from a period of net forest area loss, to a period of net forest area gain. Some assume that such forest gain necessarily equates with biodiversity conservation. We question this assumption, based on research conducted in Oaxaca, Mexico. In Oaxaca's northern highlands, low intensity forest use and rotational ( milpa) agriculture have led to pronounced spatial heterogeneity in forest structure and composition, and created a high-biodiversity forest–agriculture mosaic. In the Zapotec community of San Juan Evangelista Analco and the Chinantec community of Santiago Comaltepec, as across much of Oaxaca, fewer people are farming; farmers are cultivating less land, working closer to settlements, and growing fewer crop varieties. Widespread agricultural abandonment has initiated unprecedented changes in ecological succession, patch size, and edge effects, which we speculate will be having an impact on the biodiversity of the landscape mosaic. Our work suggests that the decline of land use activity may result in a gradual loss of the forest–agriculture mosaic, leading to localised declines in biodiversity, despite (or because of) extensive forest resurgence. These findings support the view that indigenous cultures in Oaxaca and Mexico should not be seen as an environmental constraint but rather as an agent of landscape renewal that allows for both cultural and biological diversity to flourish, a reality that national and international conservation bodies need to more fully recognise and incorporate into policy.