Transport Policy-making Research Articles

Multi-level governance and modal thinking: Tensions in electric mobility transitions in European cities

Innovations around electric vehicle (EV) technology are viewed as a promising pathway to rapidly decarbonise transport systems in transition studies. However, the mobility histories and path dependencies that shape these transitions are spatially uneven both horizontally across different geographies and vertically between different scales of authority and responsibility. As such, they are rooted in the assumptions and power relations that underlay the policy processes of city and metropolitan governance. This study takes the novel approach of comparing these processes both horizontally between cities and vertically between levels of government. The analysis is based on 50 expert interviews with local and national actors involved in delivering policy related to electric mobility in four European cities: Bristol, United Kingdom; Oslo, Norway; Poznań, Poland, and Utrecht, Netherlands. In all four cities, national, inter- and supra-national pressures generate a perception among some interviewees that the transition to electric mobility, and particularly the electrification of private cars, is inevitable. Yet because modal thinking permeates urban transport policymaking, the majority of our experts define sustainable and just urban mobility as that involving modes other than the private car. A key contribution of this study is revealing this tension between national EV priorities and urban aims to reduce car traffic, which subconsciously influences local policymakers’ perceptions of the transition to electric mobility. The study also offers new insights into how city and metropolitan policymakers can be more inclusive, innovative, and locally-responsive in shaping policies for accommodating both EVs and new modes like e-scooters.

Investigating the impact of fuel price shocks on bicycle sharing usage in Budapest

The creation of sustainable urban communities is contingent upon the establishment of a sustainable, efficient, and fast transportation system. Bicycle sharing systems (BSS) are one of the most sustainable and inclusive ways of transportation in cities. An important question is how to increase BSS ridership and whether it can effectively replace cars in cities, hence contributing to achieving the 11th Sustainable Development Goal and creating sustainable urban communities. This paper aims to contribute to this stream of research by investigating the effect of fuel prices on BSS ridership. We exploit a natural experiment from Budapest, Hungary, where fuel prices were capped between November 15, 2021, and December 6, 2022. Once the price cap was suddenly eliminated, fuel prices increased by around one-third immediately leading to a very substantial and rarely observable one-time price increase. The difference-in-difference regression results indicate a 2–6% increase in BSS ridership after the elimination of the fuel price cap. The geographical pattern of the change shows that BSS usage mainly increased in the outer part of the city; however, some areas observed a decline. The regression results are also reinforced by survey findings. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for effective urban planning and transportation policymaking.

Role of private vehicle commuters’ travel wellbeing perception in mode shift behavior towards an upcoming metro in Mumbai Metropolitan region

The expansion of mass rapid transit systems such as the metro in urban metropolitan areas is expected to moderate the problems of congestion and public transport overcrowding. It is crucial to devise measures to attract private vehicle commuters towards these modes to make them economically and financially viable. Positive perceptions and high trip frequency of commute trips can lead to long-term habitual inertia and prevent these commuters from shifting towards new sustainable alternatives. To support transport policy-making in promoting sustainable modes, this study mainly investigated the association of private vehicle commuters’ travel wellbeing perception of their commute, commute frequency, and travel attributes with their mode shift behavior towards an upcoming metro system in Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR). Some external changes will occur in the transport system regarding time, cost, and other attributes with the upcoming 426 km metro line network in MMR. A well-designed stated preference survey was conducted, and 2400 observations were collected from 217 private vehicle commuters (two-wheelers and cars). Results indicate that the commuters value metro on-board comfort the most, followed by transfers, travel time, and waiting time. Existing travel wellbeing perception is found to be insignificant in determining the mode shift behavior. Furthermore, regular private vehicle commuters showed a significant shifting propensity towards the upcoming metro. Mann-Whiteney U test results indicate no significant differences in travel wellbeing perceptions among car and two-wheeler commuters.

Beyond traffic jams: public perceptions of Jabodetabek Commuter Line (KRL) System for sustainable urban development

Jabodetabek Commuter Line (KRL) is an essential transportation infrastructure that connects the city’s suburbs with the central business district. Despite the system’s expansion in recent years, there needs to be more research on how the public perceives the KRL system as a sustainable transportation option and how these perceptions might influence the system’s effectiveness in achieving sustainable urban development goals. This study aims to understand how Jabodetabek residents perceive the KRL system as a sustainable transportation option. The method of this study is qualitative research with in-depth interviews. The study found that Jabodetabek residents perceive the KRL system as a sustainable transportation option for their daily needs. The participants identified several positive aspects of the KRL system, including its affordability, convenience, and environmental friendliness. However, the study also revealed negative perceptions, such as safety concerns and limited connectivity. Positive perceptions of the KRL system can lead to increased usage and greater support for sustainable transportation policies, whereas negative perceptions can have the opposite effect by reducing usage and decreasing support for sustainability initiatives. These findings indicate the importance of understanding the public’s perception of sustainable transportation options in achieving sustainable urban development goals. These insights inform sustainable transportation policymaking and contribute to global knowledge about sustainable cities and communities.

Integrating three diverse perspectives into the proposed role for cooperation in sustainable transport policymaking: a reply to commentaries on ‘From “I” to “we”: an exploration of how theories of cooperation might inform policymaking around sustainable travel behaviour’ by Brendan Donegan et al

Integrating three diverse perspectives into the proposed role for cooperation in sustainable transport policymaking: a reply to commentaries on ‘From “I” to “we”: an exploration of how theories of cooperation might inform policymaking around sustainable travel behaviour’ by Brendan Donegan et al

Re-thinking the role of exploratory scenarios for adaptive policymaking: An application for land use and transport planning

While scenario-building has proven useful in situations marked by considerable uncertainty in the context of land use and transport policymaking, additional research is needed to develop adaptive and dynamic scenario-building schemes. To address this gap, the present paper conceptualises an adaptive scenario-building approach that would facilitate adaptive policy responses by using exploratory scenarios as intermediate tipping points. An empirical research design is also conducted following a participatory approach, with a case study of the Henares Corridor in the Metropolitan Area of Madrid, Spain. Three exploratory scenarios are assessed as experimental tipping points for the basic policy pathways initially adopted by regional and local governments. The use of such tipping points suggested different adaptive policy responses: (i) preserving policy responses when exploratory scenarios are strongly aligned with the basic pathways; and (ii) transforming policy responses when significant deviations are perceived between the exploratory scenarios and the basic pathways. The paper also discusses the real-life application potential of this adaptive scenario-building approach, further research steps, and future horizons for scenario-building.

How do expected changes in life affect young people's stated ownership of privately-owned autonomous vehicles: A comparative study

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are expected to bring various changes in people's lives. Such expected changes in life may affect people's decisions on the ownership of privately-owned AVs (PAVs) and even future travel demand structure. However, such effects remained unclear due to the lack of relevant studies. By targeting young people, this study fills this research gap by implementing a nation-wide expectation and stated preference (SP) survey in Japan, by comparing with older people. In the survey, respondents first reported their expected changes in life caused by AVs and then chose the most preferred vehicle from a choice set with three types of PAVs (conditional, high, and full automation) and a conventional car. The survey was implemented in 2016 and 3,006 valid SP responses were collected from 1,002 respondents (417 are young people). It is found that young people expected more changes in life and are more likely to choose PAVs with high and full automation than older people, which is consistent with the reported willingness-to-pay. By estimating a mixed logit model with panel data, it is revealed that expected changes in life affect the two age groups' choices of PAVs. There are more inconsistent influences of expected changes in life between the two groups than consistent influences, suggesting the presence of age-related structural differences of responses to future expectations. Diverse responses to future expectations are revealed, which policy implications are discussed. The findings support a life-oriented paradigm shift of travel behavior research and cross-sectoral transport policymaking and future sustainable society design.

The Perils of Participation: The Effect of Participation Messages on Citizens’ Policy Support

While scholars have found several benefits to citizens, government, and society resulting from participatory policy processes, other research suggests that citizens are apathetic and uninterested in participating in policy-making. Also, in some cases, knowing that similar others participated in making a decision can decrease support for the result. The current research attempts to determine whether knowledge that similar citizens participated in public transportation policymaking or elites designed a transit policy affects support for the policy as well as general support for the policy process. Results from a survey experiment suggest that who participates matters. Citizens do not want “people like them” developing public transportation policies. These findings pose implications for the promotion of participatory processes.

How more data reinforces evidence-based transport policy in the Short and Long-Term: Evaluating a policy pilot in two Dutch cities

Data have played a role in urban mobility policymaking for decades. Especially since the emergence of big data, many researchers have shown how to advance data use to improve understanding transport policy effects, but there is hardly insight in how this is adopted in policy practice. This study aims to address this gap by answering two questions: (1) how is data currently embedded in urban mobility policy- and decision-making; and (2) what are the advantages and limitations of more data use in these processes?We chose two Dutch cities -Maastricht and Groningen-that were both involved in a national programme (BeterBenutten) that trialed (and funded) a more evidence-based policymaking approach. We did ten semi-structured interviews with the people work in the mobility department and analyzed the twenty-one most relevant policy reports to understand how more data reinforces/impedes transport policymaking in practice. We found that data use differed in long-term and short-term policy cycles. In the long-term policy cycle, data was regarded as less important than political and societal trends and developments; in the short-term cycle, data played a major role in prompting traffic regulations and policy adjustments.Policy insights can be derived from this research on how data can be better embedded in policymaking practices (1) The support from national/regional level (i.e. BeterBenutten program): could provide extra opportunities for local governments to do ex-post policy assessments, which has been regarded as valuable resources for evidence-based decision-making by policymakers. (2) Survey data can still play a significant role in urban mobility planning by typically providing more insights in the ‘why’ of traveler behaviors than big data. (3) Transport policymakers need to strength their abilities in selecting suitable data (out of a much larger set) and having more (competent) personnel capacity to interpret data. (4) Promoting sustainable mobility is a strong driving force for the local governments to enhance data use.

Adopting a Whole Systems Approach to Transport Decarbonisation, Air Quality and Health: An Online Participatory Systems Mapping Case Study in the UK

In a drive to achieve net zero emissions, U.K. transport decarbonisation policies are predominantly focussed on measures to promote the uptake and use of electric vehicles (EVs). This is reflected in the COP26 Transport Declaration signed by 38 national governments, alongside city region governments, vehicle manufacturers and investors. However, emerging evidence suggests that EVs present multiple challenges for air quality, mobility and health, including risks from non-exhaust emissions (NEEs) and increasing reliance on vehicles for short trips. Understanding the interconnected links between electric mobility, human health and the environment, including synergies and trade-offs, requires a whole systems approach to transport policymaking. In the present paper, we describe the use of Participatory Systems Mapping (PSM) in which a diverse group of stakeholders collaboratively constructed a causal model of the U.K. surface transport system through a series of interactive online workshops. We present the map and its analysis, with our findings illustrating how unintended consequences of EV-focussed transport policies may have an impact on air quality, human health and important social functions of the transport system. We conclude by considering how online participatory causal modelling techniques could be effectively integrated with empirical metrics to facilitate effective policy design and appraisal in the transport sector.

Assessment of Urban Mobility via a Pressure-State-Response (PSR) Model with the IVIF-AHP and FCE Methods: A Case Study of Beijing, China

Urban transportation issues continue to emerge and evolve as a result of rapid urbanization, and the systematic and scientific assessment of urban mobility is becoming increasingly essential. In this work, a Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model with 25 indicators was established to reflect the status of urban mobility. Then, the importance of indicators was determined with the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (IVIF-AHP) method, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) method was applied to assess the overall status of urban mobility. The validity of the proposed model was demonstrated using the mobility system of Beijing as a case study, and the pressure, state, and response scores were calculated. The proposed assessment model can help to improve urban transportation monitoring and can also provide a scientific foundation for future urban transportation policymaking, planning, and traffic management, thereby further ensuring the sustainable development of urban transportation systems.

E-shopping and walking accessibility to retail

Previous research on e-shopping and transportation has paid limited attention to accessibility-oriented approaches. To address this gap, the present paper explores the importance of e-shopping habits in predicting three types of walking accessibility (real, potential, and perceived) to grocery and clothing stores for individuals younger than 55 years. The municipality of Getafe (Madrid Metropolitan Area, Spain) provides the empirical staging ground. The methodology utilizes a face-to-face questionnaire to record e-shopping habits and socio-economic characteristics. The Random Forest algorithm is used to establish the importance of e-shopping habits and socio-economic characteristics for predicting real, potential, and perceived walking accessibility. The results reveal that both e-shopping habits as well as socio-economic variables are relevant for predicting each type of walking accessibility, but with varying impacts and targeted in specific use cases. For groceries, e-shopping habits demonstrated high predictive power for potential accessibility, whereas such predictive power was similar to socio-economics for real and perceived accessibility. Regarding clothes, e-shopping habits were more relevant than socio-economics in predicting real and potential accessibility, while a similar importance level was seen between e-shopping habits and socio-economic factors for perceived accessibility. The concluding remarks provide a summary of the key findings and a few reflections on transport policymaking.

Analysis of bus travel characteristics and predictions of elderly passenger flow based on smart card data

<abstract> <p>Preferential public transport policies provide an important social welfare support for travel by the elderly. However, the travel problems faced by the elderly, such as traffic congestion during peak hours, have not attracted enough attention from transportation-related departments. This study proposes a passenger flow prediction model for the elderly taking public transport and validates it using bus smart card data. The study incorporates short time series clustering (STSC) to integrate the elements of the heterogeneity of bus trips taken by the elderly, and accurately identifies the needs of elderly passengers by analysing passenger flow spatiotemporal characteristics. According to the needs and characteristics of passenger flow, a short time series clustering Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (STSC-SARIMA) model was constructed to predict passenger flow. The analysis of spatiotemporal travel characteristics identified three peak periods for the elderly to travel every day. The number of people traveling in the morning peak was significantly larger compared to other periods. At the same time, compared with bus lines running through central urban areas, multi-community, and densely populated areas, the passenger flow of bus lines in other areas dropped significantly. The study model was applied to Lhasa, China. The prediction results verify that the model has high prediction accuracy and applicability. In addition to the initial application, this predictive model provides new directions for bus passenger flow forecasting to support better public transport policy-making and improve elderly mobility.</p> </abstract>

Associations between the sense of accessibility, accessibility to specific destinations, and personal factors: A cross-sectional study in Sendai, Japan

Good urban and transport policymaking requires understanding both calculated/perceived accessibility to specific destinations and sense of accessibility (residents’ overall feelings of (in)convenience in their daily lives). This study investigated the correlations between personal factors, calculated accessibility (actual distances and travel time), perceived accessibility (residents’ perceived possibility of accessing specific destinations), and sense of accessibility. We conducted an online survey involving residents in the Sendai metropolitan area, Japan, from January 15 to February 9, 2021. The sample size was 1474. We considered previous studies and accessibility-related problems in Japan to determine what destinations and personal attributes the survey would enquire. The estimation results of ordinary regression models demonstrated that personal factors, including self-rated health, living in a central city, household composition, and transportation usage were associated with several measures of sense of accessibility. Good calculated accessibility to stations and food retailers was positively associated with the sense of accessibility without cars. Non-commuting and commuting longer than 30 min were positively associated with the sense of accessibility to what the respondents wanted. Perceived accessibility to important daily life destinations was positively associated with sense of accessibility. The neighborhood social cohesion was partly associated with the current sense of accessibility; however, this association was not observed under the assumption of not having access to a car. The results provide notable findings that connect existing accessibility measures and sense of accessibility in an Asian context.

Examining the Discrepancies between Self-Reported and Actual Commuting Behavior at the Individual Level

For decades, transportation researchers have used survey data to understand the factors that affect travel-related choices. Nowadays, travel surveys lay the foundation of travel behavior analysis for transportation modeling, planning, and policy-making. The development of information technology for urban sensing has enabled substantial improvements to be made in survey-elicited and passive mobility data collection. Actively collected and passive data are very different, and being able to compare and integrate them could allow stakeholders to achieve a greater understanding of human mobility. The comparison between survey self-reported travel behavior and actual travel behavior revealed by urban and mobile systems provides us with the opportunity to find potential discrepancies. Previous work has examined these discrepancies mostly at the population level. An individual-level investigation of these discrepancies could provide many benefits, from increasing our understanding of survey and passive data accuracy and collection, to designing personalized transportation services. In this study, the discrepancies between self-reported and observed travel behavior are analyzed at both the individual and aggregated level by utilizing the available mobility data, namely, survey-based commuting diaries and passive mobility records. We propose a group of discrepancy metrics for commuting activities for which we have available and comparable data, and apply the framework to an empirical analysis at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, U.S.A. Our results show that survey-elicited commuting diaries are quite reliable when examining overall commuting trends, whereas passive mobility data are more suitable for investigating individual-level commuting behavior. Furthermore, we identify the association between discrepancies in commuting behavior and certain individual characteristics, for example, employee type and age.

Urban transportation sustainability assessments: a systematic review of literature

ABSTRACT The volume of urban transportation sustainability assessments in academic literature has steadily increased over the last two decades. This paper targets these studies through the first systematic literature review to construct a synthesised and critical overview of how urban transportation sustainability is in fact assessed. The sample consists of 99 peer-reviewed articles retrieved via three scientific search engines. The results reveal a Europe-centric and single-case focus, a strong interest to introduce new indicator systems with limited references to previous work, and a lack of qualitative approaches and stakeholder diversity regarding the assessment methods. Nearly 2400 indicators are identified in the articles with significant variation in their use. Furthermore, the comprehensive accounting for sustainability is often overlooked, and the inconclusive assessment results are often noted by the authors of the sample articles themselves. Our findings signal that the research field is highly fragmented and to some extent fails to accumulate knowledge generated by past studies and to comprehensively operationalise the concept of sustainability. The identified shortcomings of the assessments and their implications for transportation policy-making and planning are highlighted, and based on our results recommendations to develop more reliable, comparable, and inclusive sustainability assessments for the urban transportation sector are made.

Digital Twins: A Critical Discussion on Their Potential for Supporting Policy-Making and Planning in Urban Logistics

Poor logistics efficiency, due to low load factors caused by high demand fragmentation, will have relevant negative consequences for cities in terms of pollution, congestion and overall city liveability. Policy-makers should equip themselves with appropriate tools to perform reliable, comprehensive and timely analyses of urban logistics scenarios, also considering upcoming (i) technological changes, (ii) business model evolutions and (iii) spatial-temporal changes these innovations will produce. This paper discusses the Digital Twin (DT) concept, illustrating the role it might play and clarifying how to properly conceive it with respect to urban freight transport policy-making and planning. The main message is that without a sound theory and knowledge with respect to the relationships linking contextual reality and choice/behaviour, it is not possible to make sense of what happens in the real world. Therefore, the joint use of behavioural and simulation models should characterise a DT within a Living Lab approach so to stimulate effective, well-informed and participated planning processes, but also to forecast both behaviour and reactions to structural changes and policy measures implementations.

COVID-19 and the Dilemma of Transport Policymaking

This short paper sets out the basic dilemma of transport policy making today, as how to strike the balance between the benefits of accessibility and the induced externalities in terms of sprawl, greenhouse gas emissions and congestion. The impacts of the Corona-19 pandemic sharpens the dilemma. They are presented using a large Swiss GPS tracking panel collected at the IVT, ETHZ in conjunction with WWZ, Universität Basel. The facets presented are the share of mobiles, miles travelled by mode and work status. The paper concludes with a discussion of possible solutions in the expected "new normal" at the pandemic.

Transport policymaking that accounts for COVID-19 and future public health threats: A PASS approach

The novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has had wide-reaching and unprecedented impacts on the transport sector worldwide. At present, there is no globally agreed timeframe for when this pandemic will end. The current and near-future potential impacts must be addressed in a relatively comprehensive and seamless way. The present study proposed a PASS (P: Prepare–Protect–Provide; A: Avoid–Adjust; S: Shift–Share; S: Substitute–Stop) approach for policymaking that accounts for COVID-19 and future public health threats. The PASS approach was illustrated conceptually, and then policy measures were recommended by referring to the past and ongoing best practices. Policymaking challenges and research issues were discussed.

Mobility-as-a-service: insights to policymakers and prospective MaaS operators

ABSTRACT Mobility-as-a-Service is an innovative concept which is anticipated to offer seamless, end-to-end mobility to customers. As MaaS market continues to grow, a better understanding of the current barriers and enablers is essential for informing policy interventions. For this purpose, this paper conducts a detailed review of the existing European regulations and policy framework, while collecting qualitative data from key stakeholders in three European metropolitan areas. Our research highlights various challenges to MaaS implementation including technical, regulatory, financial, and social issues, that lead to relevant implications for current and future transport policymaking. The paper ends with the delivery of specific recommendations to the involved MaaS actors, including public authorities and prospective MaaS operators, so as to achieve a successful MaaS implementation.