How do expected changes in life affect young people's stated ownership of privately-owned autonomous vehicles: A comparative study

Abstract

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are expected to bring various changes in people's lives. Such expected changes in life may affect people's decisions on the ownership of privately-owned AVs (PAVs) and even future travel demand structure. However, such effects remained unclear due to the lack of relevant studies. By targeting young people, this study fills this research gap by implementing a nation-wide expectation and stated preference (SP) survey in Japan, by comparing with older people. In the survey, respondents first reported their expected changes in life caused by AVs and then chose the most preferred vehicle from a choice set with three types of PAVs (conditional, high, and full automation) and a conventional car. The survey was implemented in 2016 and 3,006 valid SP responses were collected from 1,002 respondents (417 are young people). It is found that young people expected more changes in life and are more likely to choose PAVs with high and full automation than older people, which is consistent with the reported willingness-to-pay. By estimating a mixed logit model with panel data, it is revealed that expected changes in life affect the two age groups' choices of PAVs. There are more inconsistent influences of expected changes in life between the two groups than consistent influences, suggesting the presence of age-related structural differences of responses to future expectations. Diverse responses to future expectations are revealed, which policy implications are discussed. The findings support a life-oriented paradigm shift of travel behavior research and cross-sectoral transport policymaking and future sustainable society design.