Transport Modeling System Research Articles

Transportation system models to analyse ports competition and cooperation

Some global drivers of the shipping market, such as the carriers’ alliance consolidation process and the growing ship sizes have determined critical conditions in standalone ports in the XXI century. The traditional attitude of each port during the XX century was to consider other ports, even if they belong to the same territorial system, as competitors following the postulate of the natural monopoly of access to a territory. However, the necessity to respond to the binding requests of port users and of the ship gigantism brought to different experiences between ports belonging to the same territorial system. New forms of cooperation and competition took place at different levels. The paper presents a theoretical equilibrium model to analyse the competition and/or cooperation scenarios of two, or more, ports belonging to a territorial system. The model is based on the consolidated topological-behavioural paradigm of Transportation System Models (TSMs). The proposed equilibrium model allows to simulate the condition inside a port system, which moves from a competition attitude between ports to a cooperation one, within the same modelling framework. The model could provide to the port authorities, managers, planners and researchers a quantitative tool to understand the competition-cooperation scenarios and to define alternative strategies in relation to the decisions taken by other actors of the market.

Personalization of the Car-Sharing Fleet Selected for Commuting to Work or for Educational Purposes—An Opportunity to Increase the Attractiveness of Systems in Smart Cities

Car-sharing services, which provide short-term vehicle rentals in urban centers, are rapidly expanding globally but also face numerous challenges. A significant challenge is the effective management of fleet selection to meet user expectations. Addressing this challenge, as well as methodological and literature gaps, the objective of this article is to present an original methodology that supports the evaluation of the suitability of vehicle fleets used in car-sharing systems and to identify the vehicle features preferred by users necessary for specific types of travel. The proposed methodology, which incorporates elements of transportation system modeling and concurrent analysis, was tested using a real-world case study involving a car-sharing service operator. The research focused on the commuting needs of car-sharing users for work or educational purposes. The study was conducted for a German car-sharing operator in Berlin. The research was carried out from 1 January to 30 June 2022. The findings indicate that the best vehicles for the respondents are large cars representing classes D or E, equipped with a combustion engine with a power of 63 to 149 kW, at least parking sensors, navigation, hands-free, lane assistant, heated seats, and high safety standards as indicated by Euro NCAP ratings, offered at the lowest possible rental price. The results align with market trends in Germany, which focus on the sale of at least medium-sized vehicles. This suggests a limitation of small cars in car-sharing systems, which were ideologically supposed to be a key fleet in those kinds of services. The developed methodology supports both system operators in verifying whether their fleet meets user needs and urban policymakers in effectively managing policies towards car-sharing services, including fleet composition, pricing regulations, and vehicle equipment standards. This work represents a significant step towards enhancing the efficiency of car-sharing services in the context of smart cities, where personalization and optimizing transport are crucial for sustainable development.

Adaptive control of transportation infrastructure in an urban environment using a real-coded genetic algorithm

The management of urban areas requires the development of an effective strategy for the evolution of transportation infrastructure to ensure the smooth flow of traffic and pedestrians. A crucial component of this infrastructure is the traffic light system, which plays a vital role in traffic control and traffic safety. Improving the efficiency of traffic control systems in intelligent transportation systems (ITS) has a significant impact on a city’s economy. As a result, the cost of fuel for road users can be reduced, and their level of social comfort can be improved, among other benefits. This paper proposes a novel approach to optimizing traffic flows in smart cities, based on the combined use of the genetic optimization algorithm and the ITS simulation model we developed. The proposed method aims to enhance the efficiency of existing traffic control systems and achieve optimal traffic flow patterns, thereby contributing to a more sustainable and efficient urban environment. The optimization algorithm shown here aggregates the objective functions using a simulation model of a real region of the Moscow road network. The model includes intersections, pedestrian crossings and other features that are implemented in the AnyLogic system. The research aims to create a decision-support system for managing urban transport infrastructure. This system will be used to optimize the duration of traffic light phases in order to minimize the time vehicles spend passing through key nodes in the urban road network. It will also optimize pedestrian flow, reducing the impact of traffic on the environment and improving fuel efficiency. By applying this approach, the capacity of the street network can be significantly increased. Additionally, the negative effects of traffic flow on the environment can be reduced by optimizing fuel use and reducing waiting times at intersections managed by traffic lights. The research methodology involves the development of a hybrid evolutionary search algorithm, the creation of a simulation model for transportation and pedestrian flows in the AnyLogic and a series of optimization experiments that demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach when applied to the modeling of complex urban transportation systems.

Development, practical challenges, and application of a state-wide transport model system in Australia

ABSTRACT This paper develops a regional strategic travel model system to predict expected changes in traffic volumes and public transport patronage up to 2056. On the supply side, we develop transport network datasets for four linehaul modes – train, coach, car, and plane, incorporating travel times, fares, costs, and service frequency. On the demand side, an aggregate modal share logit model for three trip purposes is estimated to identify the role of various trip attributes and socioeconomic characteristics to forecast modal shares in the base year 2016. The resulting models produce an accessibility index asess each mode role in defining the accessibility to each Statistical Area level 2 in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory. This index informs a residential population model to identify the relationship between population and accessibility, highlighting the wider impact of transport improvements on the regional economy. The model links population changes to travel demand and predicts induced demand under a business-as-usual scenario. The application of the model system is illustrated using a corridor between Sydney and Newcastle.

Creation of a complex multivariate integrated model of the oil interfield transport system

Background. In conditions of variability of external and internal factors that directly affect the loading of the existing hydrocarbon transport system, the risks arise associated with the productive capacity of the existing infrastructure and noncompliance with the requirements for the quality of delivered oil. Objective. To create a tool allowing to assess the degree of loading of existing infrastructure facilities and indicators of the commercial quality of oil at commercial delivery sites in the near and long term, the availability of which is essential for risk minimization. Materials and methods. An integrated model in combination with automation tools is an effective tool for making strategic decisions in order to develop the assets of a subsurface user company. Results. By the example of transport infrastructure, the paper describes an approach to using the gathering system model, which jointly with automation algorithms allows solving a number of strategic tasks of oil and gas producers, such as performing multivariate hydraulic calculations and monitoring oil quality in order to verify compliance with the requirements. Conclusions. An integrated model in combination with the developed automation tools is an auxiliary tool for management decision-making. The tool helps to significantly reduce the labor costs for performing calculations and primary processing of the results. The implemented approaches can be used for hydraulic calculations and monitoring of limitations of transportation networks of similar configuration.

Towards a sustainable mobility as a service: general framework and models’ evolution

The evolution of Mobility as a Service (MaaS) and the necessity to achieve sustainability goals, defined by Agenda 2030, impose to build a roadmap for: (i) define a Sustainable MaaS (S-MaaS) able to achieve sustainable goals by taking into consideration the emerging ICTs, (ii) define and develop Transport System Models (TSMs) to support the design of sustainable transport services for ex-ante and ex-post evaluations. This paper aims to address the study of S-MaaS with particular reference to the consolidated methodologies used in the transport systems for the design, management and monitoring of the transport services. The paper presents three main elements: (i) a framework that supports MaaS actors for services design, for demand management and for policies evaluation leaving from the monitoring, in order to implement a S-MaaS; (ii) the identification of the sustainability goals as defined by Agenda 2030; (iii) the methods to analyze passengers’ behavior in the presence of MaaS with particular reference to TSMs.

Towards a sustainable mobility as a service: general framework and models’ evolution

The evolution of Mobility as a Service (MaaS) and the necessity to achieve sustainability goals, defined by Agenda 2030, impose to build a roadmap for: (i) define a Sustainable MaaS (S-MaaS) able to achieve sustainable goals by taking into consideration the emerging ICTs, (ii) define and develop Transport System Models (TSMs) to support the design of sustainable transport services for ex-ante and ex-post evaluations. This paper aims to address the study of S-MaaS with particular reference to the consolidated methodologies used in the transport systems for the design, management and monitoring of the transport services. The paper presents three main elements: (i) a framework that supports MaaS actors for services design, for demand management and for policies evaluation leaving from the monitoring, in order to implement a S-MaaS; (ii) the identification of the sustainability goals as defined by Agenda 2030; (iii) the methods to analyze passengers’ behavior in the presence of MaaS with particular reference to TSMs.

근대 계획도시로서의 군산에 대한 고찰 -교통과 역사문화경관을 중심으로-

This study analyzed the modern historic and cultural landscapes of Gunsan as a modern planned city through changes in the transport policy direction towards a colonial transport system model. The goal was to reveal the influence of changes in modern international situations and the invasion of world powers on the spatial structure of Gunsan as a colonial city from the perspectives of transport and landscape. The results confirmed that Gunsan was a better fit for the Rimmer model among the colonial transport system models. With such changes in transportation, Gunsan has been able to preserve and improve its modern historic and cultural landscapes which now play a significant role in promoting the local economy by attracting visitors. In terms of such modern historic and cultural landscapes, this study analyzed former Gunsan Customs House, former Bank of Joseon Gunsan, old Janggi 18 Bank Gunsan, former Daeungjeon Hall of Geumgwangsa Temple, Hirotsu House, Gyeongamdong Railroad Town and Gunsan Modern History Museum. However, there was some criticism that Japanese colonial buildings were advertised as unique tourist attractions, glorifying Japanese imperialism. In this sense, this study proposes the following. First, visitors should be provided with a better understanding of the modern landscapes of Gunsan instead of simply seeding them as unique tourist attractions. Second, local identity needs to be established through the contextualization of memory layers. Third, academic research must continue to build an accurate guide for such modern landscapes. Fourth, modern programs for local authorities must be to Gunsan. Finally, a plan needs to be developed to preserve such landscapes by encouraging locals to participate.

TYPHOON KARDING (NORU) STORM SURGE ANALYSIS USING THE COAWST MODELING SYSTEM

Abstract. The Philippines, frequently affected by typhoons, faces the hazard of storm surges. This study examined the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System (COAWST) to simulate Typhoon Karding's September 2022 storm surge. COAWST integrates the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) coupled using the Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT). Four setups were analyzed: i. ROMS only, ii. ROMS-SWAN, iii. ROMS-WRF, and iv. ROMS-SWAN-WRF, focusing on four variables: a. Surface air pressure, b. Wind speed, c. Free-surface elevation, and d. Significant wave height. Results show that the ROMS-WRF and ROMS-SWAN-WRF setups accurately simulated Typhoon Karding's track with minimal positional error and wind speed. However, the models overestimated the typhoon's minimum air pressure with p-biases of 7.74% (i and ii), 4.1% (iii), and 3.9% (iv), and RMSE values of 68.529 hPa (i and ii), 36.744 hPa (iii), and 36.789 hPa (iv). Additionally, water levels were underestimated, with RMSE ranging from 0.31 to 0.35 meters and p-biases from −72.56% to −154.89% at Baler, Aurora validation point. At the Real, Quezon validation point, RMSE and p-bias ranged from 0.30 to 0.34 meters and −84.80% to −166.44%, respectively. Nonetheless, the models were able to simulate the storm surge and significant wave height at Baler and Real points similar to recorded data, with setup iv performing best in storm surge simulation. In summary, COAWST may be employed for typhoon simulations, with coupling being able to increase accuracy.

Effect of wave-dependent mechanisms on storm surge and current simulation during three extreme weather systems

Abstract The wave effect is crucial to coastal ocean dynamics, but the roles of the associated wave-dependent mechanisms, such as the wave-enhanced surface stress, wave-enhanced bottom stress, and three-dimensional wave force, are not yet fully understood. In addition, the parameterizations of each mechanism vary and need to be assessed. In this study, a coupled wave-current model based on the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) model system was established to identify the effect of the wave-dependent mechanism on storm surges and currents during three typical extreme weather systems, i.e., cold wave, extratropical cyclone, and typhoon systems, in a semi-enclosed sea. The effects of the three coupled mechanisms on the surface or bottom stress, in terms of both the magnitude and direction, were investigated and quantified separately based on numerical sensitive analysis. A total of seven parameterizations is used to evaluate these mechanisms, resulting in significant variations in the storm surge and current vectors. The similarities and differences of the wave-induced surge and wave-induced current among the various mechanisms were summarized. The change in the surface stress and bottom stress and the excessive momentum flux due to waves were found to mainly occur in shallow nearshore regions. Optimal choice of the combination of parameterization schemes was obtained through comparison with measured data. The wave-induced current in the open waters with a deep-water depth and complex terrain could generate cyclonic or anticyclonic current vorticities, the number and intensity of which always increased with the enhanced strength and rotation of the wind field increased.

Influence of inflow conditions on simplified heavy vehicle wake

In the current study, the impact of various inflow conditions, including turbulent wind profiles and turbulent intensity, on the wake flow topology of a simplified ground transportation system (GTS) model was investigated using the improved delayed detached eddy simulation. The reliability and accuracy of the numerical method adopted in this paper were verified against the results comprising the aerodynamic drag and the wake flow structure of the GTS model obtained from the large eddy simulation and the experimental data. The research results indicate that turbulent winds characterized by logarithmic and uniform velocity profiles resulted in significantly different wake flow topologies yet exhibit the same dominant frequency. The turbulent intensity also plays a crucial role in the wake of the GTS model. It is observed that an increase in turbulence intensity corresponds with a rise in the aerodynamic drag. Specifically, when the turbulence intensity is set at 15%, there is a 3.68% increase in the aerodynamic drag of the GTS model compared to a case where the turbulence intensity was only 5%. In addition, the turbulent intensity is critical to the dominant frequency characteristics of the wake region of the GTS model. These results demonstrate that both the velocity profiles and the turbulence intensities significantly influence the wake flow topology and aerodynamic drag of the GTS model, providing a valuable reference for establishing appropriate inflow conditions and exploring the formation mechanism of flow topology in the wake of the GTS model.

Investigating effective competition in the Swedish freight market in the presence of network effects, using the case of road transport

The purpose of this paper is to investigate effective competition in the Swedish freight market in the presence of network effects, taking road transport as an example. This study used the extended version of Wandel’s three-layered transport system model as its research framework, on which the construction of a structural equation modeling (SEM) approach was built. Four variables were chosen, with their annual sample data drawn from Swedish official statistics: transport work to represent the integrated transport demand, length of transport infrastructure network to address the effect of infrastructure network on the integrated transport demand, energy consumption of Swedish registered trucks to address the effect of energy distribution network on the integrated transport demand, and public spending on investment and maintenance of infrastructure as a basis for investigating effective competition. We found positive effects of road infrastructure network and road energy distribution network on the integrated transport demand. Our result also shows that the public spending on investment and maintenance of infrastructure has a positive effect on the integrated transport demand through the length of infrastructure network. We argue that the Swedish road transport market is less effective when transport network effects are present, based on the definition of effective competition and our assumption. We discovered a gap in the economic literature between the concepts of effective competition and network effect within the context of freight transport, and we suggested a new category in effective competition to supplement performance, conduct, and structure categories; this new category should take into account the pre-existing conditions of network effect for existing competitors and newcomers, with its various features such as accessibility (i.e., network size), connectivity (i.e., network density), and network design and operation.

Methods for Risk Reduction: Modelling Users’ Updating Utilities in Urban Transport Networks

The paper deals with transportation system models (TSMs) on behalf of methods for risk reduction in urban areas. As far as urban transport networks are concerned, further development of models is necessary in order to capture the potentialities of emerging information and communication technologies (e-ICTs) in providing valuable information about the evolution of a transportation network during an evacuation. A new learning process structure has been proposed to take into account how the path costs (disutilities) in ordinary and emergency conditions will be perceived and updated by the users. The data provided by emerging ICT allow for the incorporation of dynamics inside the network model, concerning the update of information provided by the internet of things and big data.

Methods for Risk Reduction: Training and Exercises to Pursue the Planned Evacuation

Natural and anthropic disasters produce relevant economic and environmental losses at a global level. Many countries have adopted a risk management cycle to limit these losses. Agenda 2030 defined specific Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and relative targets dedicated to disaster risk reduction. Planned actions can pertain to the context “before” or “after” a disastrous event. The United Nations recommend a risk-informed approach for achieving the SDGs by working on anticipation and prevention. Planning with training and exercises, referring to transport systems in emergency conditions, can limit disaster impacts and strongly support the pursuit of sustainability. This research focuses on actions and methodologies for increasing preparedness levels “before” a disastrous event, to improve the capabilities of managers and people by increasing awareness of the effects of planned actions. Transport system models (TSMs) play an important role in simulating the evacuation of people to reduce theoretical risk, thereby reducing theoretical exposure. In this work, a method is presented that allows us to investigate how this theoretical reduction can become effective, through training and exercises. The paper proposes a general framework of training and exercises for risk reduction based on a given transportation planning model. The framework supports ex ante evaluations of exposure reduction produced by an evacuation plan. The obtained results show that the effectiveness of the planned actions increases with different levels of exercise implementation. The progressive implementation of exercises contributes to achieving the risk reductions estimated at the evacuation planning stage. The TSM in the mitigation phase is the basis for the development of specific quantitative evacuation plans, that must be implemented in the preparedness phase by means of training and exercises to test the planned actions in terms of reducing the exposure risk component. Some exercises implemented worldwide verify the proposed framework by means of some empirical evidence. The results and discussions reported in this paper can be useful for researchers, decisionmakers, and society by offering a contribution to the growing knowledge about risk and the potential actions and their relative effects on reducing it.

Survey on An Efficient Traffic System for Emergency Vehicles using Internet of Things

The traffic system helps to detect the congestion area and reduce the congestion. The traffic light flashes based on the overload on the given input to the model. In the transport system model, the emergency vehicle facility (EVF) is one of the basic public services. It plays a key role in saving people's lives and reducing mortality. This article presents literature reviews specifically devoted to each finding. This study can help the researcher or interested reader to recommend the development of different models in the field of EVF.

Research of nonstationary dynamic models of the organizational and technological process of railway transport technical vehicles repair

The problems of analytical and computer research of dynamic models of repair and operation of technical vehicles used in railway transport are among the urgent problems related to ensuring safety and stability of traffic, with the development of digital twins and the improvement of monitoring and diagnostic systems. The analysis of models described by various types of multidimensional nonlinear differential equations requires the use of modern methods of dynamical systems theory, numerical optimization and computer algebra. The purpose of the article is to conduct a qualitative and numerical analysis of mathematical models of organizational and technological processes (OTP) in railway transport, as well as the synthesis of new controlled OTP models. Nonstationary generalizations of a two-dimensional dynamic model describing the repair process of railway transport equipment are proposed. Various cases of using constant and time-dependent parameters are considered. The case of linear and exponential dependences of parameters on time is studied. For the studied models, trajectories are obtained taking into account the variation of constant parameters and taking into account the choice of parametric dependencies, a comparative analysis of the results is presented. The formulation of the problem of optimal control of the number of repaired and repaired railway wagons is proposed. Promising methods for solving this problem using numerical optimization methods, including those inspired by nature, are described. The results can be used in the tasks of constructing and analyzing mathematical models of dynamic systems, in the tasks of numerical modeling of transport systems and technological processes, in the tasks of optimizing the number of vehicles and improving the transportation process, as well as in the tasks of creating digital counterparts in the transport industry.

Computational Architecture of an Integrated Urban Model Considering Physical-Virtual Activity Spaces

This study presents the computational architecture of the integrated transport, land-use, and emission (iTLE) modeling system. It incorporates the effects of physical-virtual activity-space interactions within the microsimulation framework, making it a comprehensive tool for predicting travel demand and evaluating the impacts of evolving activity-travel behavior on transport and land-use systems. The model systematically integrates households’ and individuals’ long-term, medium-term, and short-term travel related decisions, and traffic assignment allowing for more reliable estimates of travel demand. Application of the iTLE prototype in the Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM), Canada reveals notable trends, including a reduction in travel time for work activities, highlighting the potential of teleworking as a pragmatic strategy for traffic management. The model’s flexibility is demonstrated through its ability to capture the trade-offs between physical and virtual activity environments, aligning with the intricacies of modern digitalized societies. Integration of iTLE with the traffic assignment system enhances its applicability across diverse urban contexts, streamlining the process of setting origin-destination trip matrices and significantly improving computational efficiency. By systematically coupling the micro-behavioral decision processes, iTLE generates robust estimates of traffic flow, emissions, and energy use, providing reliable insights for sustainable and efficient transportation planning. This study contributes to advancing integrated urban modeling, offering a valuable tool that can be replicable for multiple cities in Canada and beyond.

Microscopic traffic models, accidents, and insurance losses

AbstractThe paper develops a methodology to enable microscopic models of transportation systems to be accessible for a statistical study of traffic accidents. Our approach is intended to permit an understanding not only of historical losses but also of incidents that may occur in altered, potential future systems. Through such a counterfactual analysis, it is possible, from an insurance, but also from an engineering perspective, to assess the impact of changes in the design of vehicles and transport systems in terms of their impact on road safety and functionality.Structurally, we characterize the total loss distribution approximatively as a mean-variance mixture. This also yields valuation procedures that can be used instead of Monte Carlo simulation. Specifically, we construct an implementation based on the open-source traffic simulator SUMO and illustrate the potential of the approach in counterfactual case studies.

Total water levels along the South Atlantic Bight during three along-shelf propagating tropical cyclones: relative contributions of storm surge and wave runup

Abstract. Total water levels (TWLs), including the contribution of wind waves, associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most damaging hazards faced by coastal communities. TC-induced economic losses are expected to increase because of stronger TC intensity, sea level rise, and increased populations along the coasts. TC intensity, translation speed, and distance to the coast affect the magnitude and duration of increased TWLs and wind waves. Under climate change, the proportion of high-intensity TCs is projected to increase globally, whereas the variation pattern of TC translation speed also depends on the ocean basin and latitude. There is an urgent need to improve our understanding of the linkages between TC characteristics and TWL components. In the past few years, hurricanes Matthew (2016), Dorian (2019), and Isaias (2020) propagated over the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) with similar paths but resulted in different coastal impacts. We combined in situ observations and numerical simulations with the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system to analyze the extreme TWLs under the three TCs. Model verification showed that the TWL components were well reproduced by the present model setup. Our results showed that the peak storm surge and the peak wave runup depended mainly on the TC intensity, the distance to the TC eye, and the TC heading direction. A decrease in TC translation speed primarily led to longer exceedance durations of TWLs, which may result in more severe economic losses. Wave-dependent water level components (i.e., wave setup and wave swash) were found to dominate the peak TWL within the near-TC field. Our results also showed that in specific conditions, the prestorm wave runup associated with the TC-induced swell may lead to TWLs higher than at the peak of the storm. This was the case along the SAB during Hurricane Isaias. Isaias's fast TC translation speed and the fact that its swell was not blocked by any islands were the main factors contributing to these peak TWLs ahead of the storm peak.

Сравнительный анализ транспортного спроса и предложения в моделях транспортных систем городских агломераций

Purpose: To analyze the methods of mathematical modeling used to determine the demand for urban transportation and predict the intensity of flow distribution in the public transport network. To determine the zones of effective use of network and pre-network methods for the formation of transport models of urban agglomerations. To conduct a comparative analysis of the parameters of transport demand and offer in the network and pre-network variants of urban transport systems modeling. Methods: Mathematical modeling, processing large amounts of data, geoinformation analysis. Results: The methods of determining transport demand and offer used in modern transport models are analyzed. A comparative analysis of pre-network and network methods in transport modeling is carried out, the zone of their effective use is defined. The approbation of the problem solution of determining the transport demand and offer is carried out on the example of the urban transport system model of the St.Petersburg agglomeration. Based on the modeling results, the dependencies of transport demand and offer on the input data and model limitations are analyzed. It is concluded that it is necessary to calibrate the value of each parameter when using transport modeling. Practical significance: The results obtained can be the basis for improving mathematical modeling methods used in urban transport planning. The proposed approaches to modeling transport demand and offer can be used in the creation of forecast models used to justify project decisions in the documentation of territorial and transport planning.