Energy System Transition Research Articles

The Ghana Randomized Air Pollution and Health Study (GRAPHS): a cluster randomized trial of Liquified petroleum gas (LPG) and efficient biomass cookstoves delivered during pregnancy

OPS 33: Health impact of interventions 2, Room 411, Floor 4, August 28, 2019, 10:30 AM - 12:00 PM Background/Aim: Household air pollution from inefficient biomass cookstoves causes millions of avoidable deaths annually. We urgently need reliable information on potential interventions. The Ghana Randomized Air Pollution and Health Study (GRAPHS) was a cluster randomized trial assessing the effect of a cookstove intervention delivered during the first two trimesters of pregnancy on birth weight and on physician-assessed pneumonia during the first year of life. Methods: We recruited pregnant women in Kintampo North and South districts in Ghana prior to 24 weeks gestation, as determined via ultrasound performed by trained midwife, and assigned them to one of three study arms. In control arm communities, study participants continued to cook with traditional cookstoves. In LPG communities, households received one two-burner LPG cookstove and free LPG. In efficient biomass cookstove communities, households received two fan-assisted improved biomass-burning stoves. Control and efficient cookstove participants received LPG stoves at the end of the trial. Birth weight was assessed by study staff stationed in birth clinics, or, in the case of home births, by home visit within 24 hours of delivery; in both settings, birth weights were measured using calibrated digital scales. Trained field staff visited study children weekly during the first year of life, and referred all community-assessed respiratory illnesses to a study physician, who assessed pneumonia status using the WHO Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) guidelines. Results: We enrolled 1414 non-smoking, pregnant women resulting in 1303 live births. 1122 infants completed follow-up through the first year of life, with 54,768 child-weeks of fieldworker surveillance. Our intention to treat analysis showed no significant difference in birth weight or physician-assessed IMCI pneumonia in either of the intervention arms. Conclusions: Neither intervention reduced pneumonia risk or increased birth weight. Future intervention studies should consider community-level energy system transitions.

Technological innovation system analysis in a follower country – The case of offshore wind in Poland

We assess the offshore wind innovation system in Poland using the Technological Innovation System (TIS) approach. This procedure has been widely used to describe the offshore wind innovation systems in Europe. However, the literature concerned European countries located at the technological frontier, while we examine this issue in a follower country, which is still waiting to deploy first offshore wind installation. The upcoming transition of energy system makes Poland a promising market for renewable technologies, and the geographical location places Poland as the main actor in kick-starting the offshore wind market on the Baltic Sea. However, in our study we identify a number of challenges for offshore wind technology deployment in Poland. Some of them include unpredictable public policies, limited grid infrastructure, rather poor quality of research and weak interactions between science and business. To address these issues, we propose a set of policy instruments. We also outline two main observations resulting from the TIS analysis applied to a follower country. First, the formulation of an appropriate policy decision is a precondition for the adoption of a new technology in a follower country, especially in sectors such as the energy sector. Second, due to the importance of imitation, we identify the relationship between entrepreneurial experimentation and knowledge exchange across geographical borders as critical for the innovation system’s performance in a follower country.

Evaluating grid-interactive electric bus operation and demand response with load management tariff

Electric Vehicles are expected to play a vital role in the transition of smart energy systems. Lots of recent research has explored numerous underlying mechanisms to achieve the synergetic interactions in the electricity balancing process. In this paper, the grid-interactive operation of electric buses is first time integrated within a dynamic market frame using the Distribution Locational Marginal Price algorithm for load congestion management. Since the defined problem correlates the opportunity charging flexibility with the bus mobility over a network, the tempo-spatial distribution of energy needs can be reflected in the dynamic of service planning. The interactions between bus operators and suppliers are quantitatively modelled by a bi-level optimisation process to represent the electric bus service planning and electricity market clearing separately. The effectiveness of the proposed load management has been demonstrated using data collected from an integrated real-world bus network. Experiments show that engagement of electric bus charging load in demand response is helpful to alleviate the network congestion and to reduce the power loss by 7.2% in the distribution network. However, alleviated charging loads have exhibited counter-intuitive capability for load shifting. The restricted electric bus operational requirements leads to a 8.17% loss of charging demand, while the reliance on large batteries has increased by 10.57%. However, the sensitivity analysis also shows that as the battery cost declines, the such discourage implications on grid-interactive electric bus operation will decrease once the battery cost below 190/kWh. The optimal grid-ebus integration have to consider the trade-off between range add-up, reduced battery cost and additional benefits.

Energy transition complexities in rural and remote Indigenous communities: a case study of Poplar Hill First Nation in northern Ontario

ABSTRACTThe First Nation communities in northern Ontario have unique energy-related challenges within an interdisciplinary context, including historical, geographic, cultural, technological, and regulatory. Presently, undergoing an energy systems transition from off-grid to grid-connection and scoping renewable energy options, these remote communities are exhibiting characteristics of complex adaptive system principles. This is exhibited through non-linear interactions and connectedness among agents and components in the emerging energy system. This paper explores these interfaces through a case study of Poplar Hill First Nation, an Independent Power Authority community. The potentials of the complexity science through a community engagement process is used to encode and enhance understanding of the “contextual” complexities in the development of local economies, adapting to technology advancement, and social changes. The findings will help better appreciate the efforts made by Poplar Hill in their transition to self-sufficient systems with deliberations that may provide practical outcomes. This paper reflects on the deeper trajectories of the human elements embedded within the energy transition process. In conclusion, the paper adds to the academic dialogue on energy system transition adaptations in marginalised Indigenous communities in rural and remote locations.

Hierarchical control of thermostatically controlled loads oriented smart buildings

With the transition of energy systems, synergetic interaction between consumers and suppliers has been an inevitable trend. As a demand response (DR) resource, thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) can respond to power fluctuations in power grids caused by renewable energy and load activities by means of TCLs’ characteristics of good thermal energy storage and slow-varying thermal inertia. Aggregating TCLs by clustering methods neglects the coupling of diverse thermal parameters with the scattered geographical locations of controlled TCLs, and will increase the complexity of communication systems and decrease scalability and availability of demand-side scheduling potential. This paper proposes a state transition interval matching (STIM) control strategy and a pinning control method based hierarchical framework. Considering the controlled tendency and compressor lockout of TCLs, STIM strategy achieves unified control of heterogeneous TCLs at the lower layer, which could reduce the relative error caused by a small number of high-power TCLs. Thus, the control accuracy and availability of TCLs’ scheduling potential are enhanced. What’s more, this could help reduce the complexity of communication systems among aggregators and TCLs. At the upper layer, pinning control coordinates the scheduling capacities provided by different buildings in a sparse communication network. This could enhance control stability in the event of a communication fault, and would facilitate the aggregation of newly participating buildings. The feasibility and scalability of TCLs’ participation in DR service are improved by the proposed method of hierarchical control. Finally, the validity of the proposed strategy is verified via comparison with temperature priority list strategy.

Planning a Low-Carbon Energy Transition: What Can and Can’t the Models Tell Us?

Download : Download high-res image (160KB) Download : Download full-size image Dr. Ajay Gambhir is a Senior Research Fellow at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College London. He uses energy system and integrated assessment models to simulate low-carbon energy system transitions. His research also involves assessing the innovation and cost reduction potential of low-carbon technologies, as well as the use of scenarios and other methods to envisage how we can achieve a rapid, cost-effective, and equitable low-carbon transition. Before joining Imperial College, Ajay was the Team Leader for EU and International Climate Change Economics at the UK Government’s Department for Energy and Climate Change.

Transition towards 100% renewable power and heat supply for energy intensive economies and severe continental climate conditions: Case for Kazakhstan

Transition towards 100% renewable energy supply is a challenging aim for many regions in the world. Even in regions with excellent availability of wind and solar resources, such factors as limited availability of flexible renewable energy resources, low flexibility of demand, and high seasonality of energy supply and demand can impede the transition. All these factors can be found for the case of Kazakhstan, a mostly steppe country with harsh continental climate conditions and an energy intensive economy dominated by fossil fuels. Results of the simulation using the LUT Energy System Transition modelling tool show that even under these conditions, the power and heat supply system of Kazakhstan can transition towards 100% renewable energy by 2050. A renewable-based electricity only system will be lower in cost than the existing fossil-based system, with levelised cost of electricity of 54 €/MWh in 2050. The heat system transition requires installation of substantial storage capacities to compensate for seasonal heat demand variations. Electrical heating will become the main source of heat for both district and individual heating sectors with heat cost of about 45 €/MWh and electricity cost of around 56 €/MWh for integrated sectors in 2050. According to these results, transition towards a 100% renewable power and heat supply system is technically feasible and economically viable even in countries with harsh climatic conditions.

Measuring wellbeing performance of carbon emissions using hybrid measure and meta-frontier techniques: Empirical tests for G20 countries and implications for China

A quantitative measure of performance that integrates national-level carbon emission profiles with key parameters of social and economic wellbeing can provide an effective management tool for policy interventions. This paper constructs non-parametric evaluation and decomposition models using hybrid measure and meta-frontier techniques. The proposed models are employed to estimate the wellbeing performance of carbon emissions (WPCE) and identify the sources of WPCE inefficiency. Empirical analyses based on the Group 20 (G20) countries for the 2000–2015 period shows the worst performance is in the BRICS country group (i.e. Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) – known for rapid growth – whereas the developed and the developing economies of the G20 group show positive trajectories of performance. As for China, its performance measure of WPCE was the lowest among the G20 indicating significant potential for further improvement. The analysis also highlights the role of managerial failure as the primary driver of inefficiency, more important than technological inefficiency in explaining efficiency loss within the G20 countries. This critical finding – the relevance and importance of managerial capability – suggests the need for a high level of attention to governance and managerial capacity to ensure continued improvements in performance on carbon emissions and human wellbeing. A lesson to be drawn from this study is that China's policies to promote a low carbon economy can benefit from increased priority given to low-carbon technological innovation for the energy system transition and enhancement of environmental governance and managerial capacity to achieve a long-term sustainability.

Comments on: A comparative study of time aggregation techniques in relation to power capacity-expansion modeling

Planning models are widely used to provide insight in the transition of energy systems. With the increasing levels of intermittent renewables, the temporal representation in such models requires careful attention. However, representing all 8760 h in each modeled year while at the same time integrating detailed technical constraints of power plants might lead to an overall computationally intractable problem. In this context, several time aggregation methods to select a number of typical periods that together form an adequate representation of the full year have recently been developed.

In the transition of energy systems: What lessons can be learnt from the German achievement?

This paper assesses the energy transition in Germany from 1990 to 2017 with a focus on the politics and energy policies of the three German Chancellors. Its aim is to investigate the factors underlying the outcomes from a socio-political perspective and through this offer insight as to energy policy reforms that may be transferrable to other governments. We reveal the incremental and politically pivotal role of grassroots movements against nuclear power forming the catalyst and ongoing driver for Germany's energy transition - the Energiewende. Energiewende harbors a compelling socio-technical experiment based on government-led policy-driven structural changes to the energy system that has concurrently supported a heavily industrialized economy. Despite higher energy costs, borne disproportionally by residents, the energy vision and social experiment shared decadal and multi government cross-partisan political and community support. This socio-political policy stability provides a notable point of difference when comparing the energy transitions of lagging nations such as Australia that reveals the criticality of policy certainty to support investment towards new models of clean energy generation and distribution.

Natural gas as a bridge to sustainability: Infrastructure expansion regarding energy security and system transition

Energy security and the transformation of energy systems towards a sustainable energy supply are two central challenges with respect to planning the expansion of gas infrastructure. Taking the gas transmission system in Germany as an example, this work examines how the transformation of energy systems affects energy security in the long term (up to the year 2050) and why this should be taken into account when planning the expansion of transmission networks in the short to medium term. To achieve this, we use energy system modeling to derive scenario based future gas demands and our optimization model GASOPT to solve derived load flow problems. The results show how gas can act as a bridging energy source in the transformation of energy systems from a fossil-based to a renewable energy supply, as it produces comparatively less climate-damaging emissions than coal and oil. However, the gas demand decreases in both the energy transition scenario Energiewende (−55,0% by 2050 compared to 2015) and the current measures scenario Reference (−72,1%), leading to an increase in natural-gas-related energy security. This is understood as an interaction between import dependency, security of supply, and affordability. Load flow analyses of the current grid design considering lacking imports or empty gas storages with combined full load operation of gas fired power plants demonstrate the technical feasibility of challenging grid situations in the long term. Further significant transmission grid expansions should therefore be avoided, with freed-up transmission and storage capacity instead being used for other gaseous energy sources such as hydrogen or other gases.

Wind energy expansion scenarios – A spatial sustainability assessment

Wind power plays an integral role in the transition of Germany's energy system. In addition to its positive effects (e.g. reduction in greenhouse gas emissions), wind power can also negatively affect inhabitants and the environment. With this in mind, it is important to identify the best locations for wind turbines (WTs) which take into consideration these different sustainability aspects. This paper proposes a new simplified performance index that compares and combines three key aspects in order to assess the viability of wind expansion. These include environmental impacts (bird collisions), human attitudes (settlement distances) and energy performance (annual electricity production for supply security). The index enables a comparison to be made between the sustainability of different WT spatial distribution scenarios. This index is applied to four wind power expansion scenarios whose aim is to fulfill a certain share of the gross electricity consumption in Germany through standard wind power technologies. Finally, the respective spatial expansion scenarios are compared in terms of their lowest combined impact and their sustainability performance.

Energy system transition and macroeconomic impacts of a European decarbonization action towards a below 2\xa0\xb0C climate stabilization

The European Union has recently established the “Clean Energy for all Europeans” climate policy framework, aiming at the achievement of the European Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted to the Paris Agreement. The EU28 NDC includes a commitment for emission reductions in 2030 but also refers to an economy-wide effort towards 2050 so as to contribute effectively to the long-term mitigation of climate change. We discuss the respective EU28 emission pathways in the context of a well below 2 °C global climate stabilization target and estimate the macroeconomic impacts for the EU28 economy by considering alternative levels of climate action for major non-EU emitters. We employ two models, the technology-rich energy system model PRIMES, and the global large-scale hybrid computable general equilibrium model GEM-E3. The two models are soft linked so as to ensure a consistent and robust framework of analysis. We find that emission reductions in the energy supply sector are dominant up to 2030 while transport takes the lead in 2050. Transport and non-CO2 emissions are the main remaining emitting sources in 2050. We present the key decarbonization pillars and confirm that the impacts on the EU28 economy largely depend on the level of mitigation action adopted by the rest of the world and by the relative carbon intensity across regions. Due to asymmetric ambition of climate policies, a global implementation of NDCs results in economic losses for the EU28 when compared with a “pre-Paris” policy reference scenario, despite positive effects on energy-intensive and clean technology exports. On the contrary, we find that the region registers economic gains in the case of coordinated 2 °C global climate action.

Review of Smart Meter Data Analytics: Applications, Methodologies, and Challenges

The widespread popularity of smart meters enables an immense amount of fine-grained electricity consumption data to be collected. Meanwhile, the deregulation of the power industry, particularly on the delivery side, has continuously been moving forward worldwide. How to employ massive smart meter data to promote and enhance the efficiency and sustainability of the power grid is a pressing issue. To date, substantial works have been conducted on smart meter data analytics. To provide a comprehensive overview of the current research and to identify challenges for future research, this paper conducts an application-oriented review of smart meter data analytics. Following the three stages of analytics, namely, descriptive, predictive and prescriptive analytics, we identify the key application areas as load analysis, load forecasting, and load management. We also review the techniques and methodologies adopted or developed to address each application. In addition, we also discuss some research trends, such as big data issues, novel machine learning technologies, new business models, the transition of energy systems, and data privacy and security.

Social acceptance of distributed energy systems in Swiss, German, and Austrian energy transitions

Distributed energy systems (DESs) on a local scale constitute a promising niche to leverage renewable energy provision. These DESs (e.g., micro-cogeneration, multi-energy hubs) integrate renewable sources, combined heat and power production, various methods of energy conversion and storage, and active demand-side management. Since the broader uptake of such systems is still at an early stage, research about the adoption potentials of DESs in existing neighborhood contexts is scarce. Given their potential to contribute to energy transitions, it is relevant to gain a better understanding of the conditions under which these systems are diffused. Based on a quantitative study, we investigated the perceived responsibilities and the intended technology uptake of DESs among different societal groups in Switzerland, Germany, and Austria. We analyzed a sample of 2104 survey participants who were exposed to ranking tasks and a framing experiment and were asked questions about both opportunities and challenges in implementing DESs. Our results show an openness to engage with DESs; on average, the opportunities in applying DESs are rated higher than the challenges. However, in all three countries, the participants place the responsibility for the energy system transitions on the national government and large energy supply utilities. Municipalities and households are not yet considered relevant innovators. Moreover, the support of DESs is found to be independent from framing the DES implementation in relation to different scales of rationale (global climate change, national energy independence, or local autarky). Our findings illustrate not only the agents’ attitudes toward DESs but also the structural path dependencies involving the implementation of distributed energy technologies. Our study implies the need to address the willingness to invest in new distributed energy infrastructures at the household level in the future. We discuss the necessity of identifying barriers to and drivers of technology applications ex-ante.

Impact of future energy policy on water resources in Kazakhstan

As part of its strategic economic and social plan, Kazakhstan has a target of increasing the share of renewables and alternative energy sources in power generation to 50% by 2050. This greatly contrasts with the current situation, where around 90% of electricity is produced from fossil fuels. To achieve the target, the introduction of between 600 and 2000 MW of nuclear power is expected by 2030. This would impact water resources, already under stress due to significant losses, heavy reliance on irrigation for agriculture, unevenly distributed surface water, variations in transboundary inflows, amongst others. This study presents an integrated analysis of the water-energy systems in Kazakhstan, to investigate the water resource availability to support such energy system transition.

The impact of policy changes: The opportunities of Community Renewable Energy projects in the UK and the barriers they face

The UK's energy system is predominantly centralised with a major reliance on fossil fuels. The trilemma of successfully delivering energy security, equity, and environmental sustainability, whilst dealing with an ageing energy infrastructure, demands change within the entire energy system. In recent years, Community Renewable Energy (CRE) projects have played a significant role in the transition of the UK's energy system, but since 2016 government support for them has been less robust. This paper reports a web-based survey and semi-structured interviews of the UK's community energy groups undertaken between August 2016 and March 2017. The results indicate that huge problems have arisen due to the changes in government policy, particularly for solar photovoltaic schemes. The majority of CRE organisations have chosen to focus on managing their existing assets rather than plan further growth. Additionally, this paper highlights the key challenges facing CRE projects that wish to develop innovative business models under the new policy conditions.

Flexible electricity generation, grid exchange and storage for the transition to a 100% renewable energy system in Europe

Two transition pathways towards a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector by 2050 are simulated for Europe using the LUT Energy System Transition model. The first is a Regions scenario, whereby regions are modelled independently, and the second is an Area scenario, which has transmission interconnections between regions. Modelling is performed in hourly resolution for 5-year time intervals, from 2015 to 2050, and considers current capacities and ages of power plants, as well as projected increases in future electricity demands. Results of the optimisation suggest that the levelised cost of electricity could fall from the current 69 €/MWh to 56 €/MWh in the Regions scenario and 51 €/MWh in the Area scenario through the adoption of low cost, flexible RE generation and energy storage. Further savings can result from increasing transmission interconnections by a factor of approximately four. This suggests that there is merit in further development of a European Energy Union, one that provides clear governance at a European level, but allows for development that is appropriate for regional contexts. This is the essence of a SuperSmart approach. A 100% RE energy system for Europe is economically competitive, technologically feasible, and consistent with targets of the Paris Agreement.

District Cooling Versus Individual Cooling in Urban Energy Systems: The Impact of District Energy Share in Cities on the Optimal Storage Sizing

The energy transition of future urban energy systems is still the subject of an ongoing debate. District energy supply can play an important role in reducing the total socio-economic costs of energy systems and primary energy supply. Although lots of research was done on integrated modelling including district heating, there is a lack of research on integrated energy modelling including district cooling. This paper addressed the latter gap using linear continuous optimization model of the whole energy system, using Singapore for a case study. Results showed that optimal district cooling share was 30% of the total cooling energy demand for both developed scenarios, one that took into account spatial constraints for photovoltaics installation and the other one that did not. In the scenario that took into account existing spatial constraints for installations, optimal capacities of methane and thermal energy storage types were much larger than capacities of grid battery storage, battery storage in vehicles and hydrogen storage. Grid battery storage correlated with photovoltaics capacity installed in the energy system. Furthermore, it was shown that successful representation of long-term storage solutions in urban energy models reduced the total socio-economic costs of the energy system for 4.1%.

Measurement of effective energy consumption in China's rural household sector and policy implication

To facilitate energy system transition, China needs to further optimize energy structure and improve energy efficiency. Compared with physical energy consumption, effective energy consumption can better reflect the actual household energy consumption level. Based on a review of relevant literatures and official statistics, we first estimated the amounts of biogas, dung and solar energy utilized by rural households, and set up the time series of actual rural household energy consumption. The effective energy consumption was measured by the thermal efficiency of fuels from existing literatures, and main characteristics and trend of energy structure change were revealed. Finally, possible scenarios of energy use in 2030 were analyzed. The results show that per capita physical energy consumption and effective energy consumption reached 546.4 kgce and 142.5 kgce in 2015, respectively. The multiple thermal efficiency of all fuel increased from 16.02% in 1990 to 26.08% in 2015, to which the main contributor was energy structure change rather than physical energy consumption growth. The trends including total energy consumption declining and per capita energy consumption growing will continue until 2030. The shares of clean and efficient non-solid fuels in total energy consumption will further increase, whereas the share of renewable energy will decline.