Abstract
Two transition pathways towards a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector by 2050 are simulated for Europe using the LUT Energy System Transition model. The first is a Regions scenario, whereby regions are modelled independently, and the second is an Area scenario, which has transmission interconnections between regions. Modelling is performed in hourly resolution for 5-year time intervals, from 2015 to 2050, and considers current capacities and ages of power plants, as well as projected increases in future electricity demands. Results of the optimisation suggest that the levelised cost of electricity could fall from the current 69 €/MWh to 56 €/MWh in the Regions scenario and 51 €/MWh in the Area scenario through the adoption of low cost, flexible RE generation and energy storage. Further savings can result from increasing transmission interconnections by a factor of approximately four. This suggests that there is merit in further development of a European Energy Union, one that provides clear governance at a European level, but allows for development that is appropriate for regional contexts. This is the essence of a SuperSmart approach. A 100% RE energy system for Europe is economically competitive, technologically feasible, and consistent with targets of the Paris Agreement.
Highlights
The European Commission has adopted a framework strategy to establish an Energy Union that aims to assist in the transition towards greater sustainability, energy security and economic competitiveness [1]
In July, 2018 the trio of France, Spain and Portugal agreed that there would be a strategic role of interconnections to add value in Europe, to honour commitments related to the Paris Agreement, and to promote convergence between Member States [2]
The final wording agreed upon was to aim for net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions “as early as possible”, but it appears that future scenarios and decarbonisation plans for the European Union (EU) and its Member States will need to show how the objective of net-zero by 2050 could be achieved
Summary
The European Commission has adopted a framework strategy to establish an Energy Union that aims to assist in the transition towards greater sustainability, energy security and economic competitiveness [1]. The union aims to build greater solidarity and cooperation amongst Member States in order to pool and diversify energy resources. This would include integrating energy markets, and strengthening transmission interconnections where necessary to “make the European Union (EU) the world number one in renewable energy and lead the fight against global warming” [1]. The final wording agreed upon was to aim for net-zero GHG emissions “as early as possible”, but it appears that future scenarios and decarbonisation plans for the EU and its Member States will need to show how the objective of net-zero by 2050 could be achieved. The latest long-term vision for Europe incorporates this objective [5] and warns that not achieving such a goal could be a major threat to security and prosperity
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