Abstract
The European Union has recently established the “Clean Energy for all Europeans” climate policy framework, aiming at the achievement of the European Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted to the Paris Agreement. The EU28 NDC includes a commitment for emission reductions in 2030 but also refers to an economy-wide effort towards 2050 so as to contribute effectively to the long-term mitigation of climate change. We discuss the respective EU28 emission pathways in the context of a well below 2 °C global climate stabilization target and estimate the macroeconomic impacts for the EU28 economy by considering alternative levels of climate action for major non-EU emitters. We employ two models, the technology-rich energy system model PRIMES, and the global large-scale hybrid computable general equilibrium model GEM-E3. The two models are soft linked so as to ensure a consistent and robust framework of analysis. We find that emission reductions in the energy supply sector are dominant up to 2030 while transport takes the lead in 2050. Transport and non-CO2 emissions are the main remaining emitting sources in 2050. We present the key decarbonization pillars and confirm that the impacts on the EU28 economy largely depend on the level of mitigation action adopted by the rest of the world and by the relative carbon intensity across regions. Due to asymmetric ambition of climate policies, a global implementation of NDCs results in economic losses for the EU28 when compared with a “pre-Paris” policy reference scenario, despite positive effects on energy-intensive and clean technology exports. On the contrary, we find that the region registers economic gains in the case of coordinated 2 °C global climate action.
Highlights
Climate change mitigation has been acknowledged by the international community as one of the most important challenges that our society has to tackle
EU leaders adopted in 2014 the B2030 Climate and Energy Framework^2 that sets target levels for the year 2030, in line with the long-term objective of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% below 1990 levels by 2050, as described in the BEnergy Roadmap 2050^3 and the BRoadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050.^4 In 2015, Europe was among the first parties to submit its (Intended) Nationally Determined Contribution ((I)NDC) in the front-run to COP21 in Paris (European Union 2015) in line with the EU level agreement on the B2030 Climate and Energy Framework.^ While most NDCs refer to the short-term emission abatement efforts up to 2030, the EU28 NDC submission refers to the long-term EU28 objective for 2050
Prior to the Paris Agreement, Capros et al (2012, 2014a, b) present in detail the model results that are included in the BRoadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050.^ Knopf et al (2013) present the results of the early EMF28 multi-model analysis, exploring low-carbon transition pathways with reference to the modeling conducted in the 2050 EU Roadmap while Solano Rodriguez et al (2017) describe
Summary
Climate change mitigation has been acknowledged by the international community as one of the most important challenges that our society has to tackle. Already in 2007, the EU28 established the B2020 Climate and Energy Package.^1 This policy package formulates a complete framework of climate policies by setting targets with a horizon to the year 2020 for an overall reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, for renewable energy penetration, and for improvements in energy efficiency Building on this framework, EU leaders adopted in 2014 the B2030 Climate and Energy Framework^2 that sets target levels for the year 2030, in line with the long-term objective of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% below 1990 levels by 2050, as described in the BEnergy Roadmap 2050^3 and the BRoadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050.^4 In 2015, Europe was among the first parties to submit its (Intended) Nationally Determined Contribution ((I)NDC) in the front-run to COP21 in Paris (European Union 2015) in line with the EU level agreement on the B2030 Climate and Energy Framework.^ While most NDCs refer to the short-term emission abatement efforts up to 2030, the EU28 NDC submission refers to the long-term EU28 objective for 2050. Prior to the Paris Agreement, Capros et al (2012, 2014a, b) present in detail the model results that are included in the BRoadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050.^ Knopf et al (2013) present the results of the early EMF28 multi-model analysis, exploring low-carbon transition pathways with reference to the modeling conducted in the 2050 EU Roadmap while Solano Rodriguez et al (2017) describe
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