Trade Of Countries Research Articles

Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP): Evaluation of Trade Relations Between Member Countries Using the Social Network Analysis Method

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement was signed in 2020 as a giant free trade agreement signed by 15 countries, including China. In this context, the RCEP agreement is the world's largest free trade agreement in terms of GDP and trade volume. In this study, commercial relations between RCEP countries between 2012 (the year when negotiations of the RCEP agreement began) and 2021 were examined using social network analysis. In the analyses, export values of RCEP countries to each other were used and the data were obtained from Trade Map. In the study, social network analyzes for the years 2012, 2015, 2018 and 2021 were analyzed using the Ucinet program, while trade networks were visualized with the Gephi program. For social network analyses, basic ego network indicators, degree centrality values, hub and authority centrality values and eigenvector values were calculated. As a result of the analysis, it is seen that the hub and authority country in trade between RCEP countries is China for all four years (2012, 2015, 2018 and 2021). On the other hand, it has been determined that China's most important trade partners are Japan and South Korea. Additionally, the development in Vietnam's trade level during this period is remarkable.

Drivers of bilateral FDI inflows in North Africa region: a gravity model approach

Purpose- This paper aims to explore the main determinants of bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) and investigate the relationship between bilateral trade and FDI inflows in five North African countries with 25 investment partners. Methodology- The study employs a gravity model and pooled time-series-cross-sectional regression method, utilizing a 10-year average over the period 2001-2010, the significance of this research lies in its contribution to the existing literature as the first study to analyze the factors influencing bilateral FDI inflows between North African countries and their primary investing partners. Findings- The results indicate that bilateral trade, economic size, financial development, and common language of host countries are key drivers of bilateral FDI inflows between North African countries and other nations. Furthermore, the presence of a common language between host and home countries has a significant and positive impact on bilateral FDI. However, the distance between host and home countries has a negative effect on FDI. Conclusion- This paper concludes that foreign direct investment (FDI) between North Africa and other nations was influenced positively by the economic sizes of both the home and host countries while being negatively affected by the physical distance between them. Additionally, the results demonstrate that the presence of a common language and bilateral trade play crucial roles, with their effects being highly positive and significant. This suggests that FDI flows tend to be greater between North African countries and those with whom they already have substantial bilateral trade transactions. Furthermore, the study concludes that France, the United Arab Emirates, Spain, and Kuwait are the most significant investing countries in the North African region in terms of FDI, surpassing other nations. Keywords: Bilateral FDI inflows, bilateral trade, gravity model, North Africa, geographical and culture factors. JEL Codes: F14, F21, F40, F30, F15

Environmental Provisions in Trade Agreements

This article investigates the impact of environmental clauses in regional trade agreements on the international trade of CAN and MERCOSUR countries between 2001 and 2019. We use a gravity model estimated with the PPML estimator to analyze the relationship between environmental provisions in trade agreements and total exports. We find that the simple inclusion of environmental provisions does not have a significant effect on trade. However, the presence of a Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) in the midst of compliance is associated with a negative and significant effect on total exports. This result is accentuated if the trade occurs in a South-North structure. This finding complements previous research and provides a more complete understanding of the impact of environmental clauses on international trade in the countries of the region.

The structure, dynamics, and vulnerability of the global food trade network

The global food trade network (FTN) plays a critical role in ensuring food security. Given the increasing scale and complexity of trade, understanding the inherent dynamics and potential vulnerabilities of FTN becomes an urgent concern. Here, this study employed complex network method to investigate the structure, dynamics, and vulnerabilities of the trade networks associated with four main food crops (rice, maize, wheat, and soybeans) over the period 2000 to 2019. Our results show that the FTN has features consistent with both scale-free and small-world networks. A small percentage of 10% of major food producing countries trade with a significant proportion of 80% of all countries within the network. In the examined period, FTN has experienced remarkable changes, emerging economies such as China, India, Brazil and Russia have become more important, offsetting the historical dominance of nations such as the United States, Canada and Australia. In addition, many countries become increasingly reliant on food imports, the number of their trading partners within the FTN is decreasing, highlights potential increasing vulnerabilities. Simulation analysis also show that disruptions affecting about 5% of nations could seriously destabilize the FTN, which would be a cautionary tale for the stability of future food systems. This research provides policymakers with a fundamental perspective on mitigating potential risks in global FTN.

Proyeksi Produksi dan Keunggulan Komparatif Perdagangan Ubi Kayu Indonesia

Indonesia is one of the largest cassava importers among the ten cassava-producing countries. While there is a production surplus, Indonesia's cassava imports tend to increase yearly to meet industrial needs. This research has four objectives. First, to analyze (change) the production and trade of the world's largest cassava-producing countries in the future and the implications for Indonesia. Second, to evaluate the enabling environment for cassava production and marketing. Third, to identify the comparative advantages of Indonesia's cassava trade compared to other producing countries. Fourth, evaluate the potential for partnerships to increase Indonesian cassava production and marketing sustainability. This study used FAOSTAT data (1961-2020) projected to 15 years (2021-2035) with a double exponential smoothing method. Comparative advantages are evaluated with the Relative Export Advantage, Relative Import Advantage, Relative Trade Advantage, Net Export, and Grubel-Lloyd indexes. This study found that Indonesia's cassava harvested area will likely decrease while cassava imports will likely increase. Indonesia has a comparative advantage in exporting cassava. However, it is under-optimized due to inefficient cassava trades at the regional level and less successful cassava partnerships (between farmers and industry). This study recommends improving cassava production and trade conditions through improving enabling environments and collaborations between actors in the cassava chain.

Study on the Development Prospects of China-Japan Trade in the Context of Global Value Chains

Abstract This paper proposes a value-added trade measurement model after a specific analysis of the extent of China and Japan’s participation in GVCs, the mode of participation and the status of division of labor, and the characteristics of the participation structure. Combined with the ratio of value-added to total exports, China is compared with major trading countries to study China’s level of value-added in GVCs, trade characteristics, and the proportion of China’s industry-wide development. Combined with the WIOD data, based on the model proposed in this paper, the bilateral trade interests of China and Japan, the bilateral export value, and the trade interest rate of both sides are measured from 2000 to 2014. The classification method of HS commodity code is used to extract the trade data of important time nodes between China and Japan and analyze the development of the structure of commodity trade between China and Japan. It measured that in 2014, the trade interest rate of China to Japan was 81.95%, and the export of 172.911 billion dollars contained 141.707 billion dollars of trade interest. Japan’s trade benefit rate to China was 73.94%, with $95.615 billion of trade benefits included in $129.314 billion of exports. It shows that as of 2014, China has replaced Japan in the bilateral trade between China and Japan to occupy a relatively favorable position, indicating that the international division of labor between China and Japan has gradually shifted from a vertical division of labor to a horizontal division of labor.

The Impact of China’s Overseas Economic and Trade Cooperation Zones on Sustainable Trade of Host Countries

Under the concept of “government-guided, enterprise-led, and market-oriented” operation, the Chinese Overseas Economic and Trade Cooperation Zones (COCZs) have developed a new type of international production pattern, which has become an effective way for developing countries to integrate into the global production network sustainably. Based on the COCZ data collected manually and country-level panel data from 1997 to 2019, this study innovatively analyzes the sustainable trade effect of COCZs with the difference-in-differences method. The research finds that the establishment of COCZs significantly boosts the import and export of the host country in a sustainable manner. Further analysis finds that COCZs can promote the sustainable trade growth of the host country in three aspects: economic, societal, and environmental. This sustainable trade effect is closely related to the institutional improvement and infrastructure construction generated by COCZs. By providing a comprehensive and rigorous analysis of the impact of COCZs on the host country’s trade performance, the paper effectively responds to the criticisms on China’s “going out” strategy, which is often based on biased assumptions and a lack of empirical evidence. It also provides policy implications for both China and the host countries to enhance the cooperation and mutual benefits of COCZs.

Economic policy uncertainty and green growth in IEA member countries: A role of environmental stringency policy

AbstractAs environmental challenges continue to escalate, policymakers around the globe are prioritizing green growth (GG). This is complicated by the impact of two crucial factors, namely economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and environmental policy stringency (EPI), on the estimates for GG. Therefore, this study investigates the impact of these variables on GG while controlling trade and human development in International Energy Agency member countries from 1990 to 2020. After establishing the existence of a long‐run relationship through the Westerlund cointegration test, the Panel Mean Group autoregressive distributed lag, FMOLS, and DOLS are employed. The findings show that EPU has an inverse impact while EPI positively impacts GG in the long run. Additionally, in Brazil, China, Denmark, and Sweden, the error correction model indicates that EPU has a negative relationship, while EPI has a positive relationship with GG in the short run. Furthermore, a feedback causality was detected between GG, EPU, EPI, and Human Development Index. However, unidirectional causality has been captured running from trade to GG. This research also presents some new insights for policymakers.

Analysis of the evolution characteristics of international ICT services trade based on complex network

Digital technology has brought profound changes in the services trade, particularly accelerating the growth of the international Information and Communications Technology (ICT) services trade. Understanding the evolving characteristics of the ICT services trade is pivotal for trade participants to formulate effective policies and enhance their competitive advantages. This study used the data from UN COMTRADE to construct ICT services trade networks spanning from 2004 to 2020. Using complex network analysis methods, it delved into several aspects of ICT services trade, including trade patterns, trade relationships, and participating countries. The findings revealed that central countries in ICT services trade are progressively dominating trade relationships. Moreover, many countries in the middle and lower tiers of the ICT services trade system tend to engage in bilateral trade with major economies or form trade alliances with a select few nations. Examining the evolution of trade participants, early adopter countries such as the United States, Ireland, and the United Kingdom have solidified stable competitive advantages in ICT services trade. Building upon these findings, the study puts forth several recommendations to enhance the competitiveness of the ICT services trade. This study not only enriches the existing knowledge base on ICT services trade networks but also provides valuable insights for shaping policies in this domain. The outcomes offer crucial guidance for interpreting cooperation and conflicts within the realm of ICT services trade.

Geopolitical Decoupling in Global Production Networks

This article introduces the concept of geopolitical decoupling in global production networks (GPNs). Geopolitical decoupling is imposed on coupling participants by geopolitical forces that pressure transnational corporations to exit host regions/economies by cutting investment, production, and trade links with host country firms and industries. It also aims to disrupt inside-out trade, investment, and production links of host country firms abroad. The article identifies the basic features of geopolitical decoupling, the central role of states in geopolitical decoupling, the strategic responses of firms to deal with decoupling pressures, and the state strategies to cope with the negative effects of geopolitical decoupling in affected regions/economies. Empirically, the article investigates geopolitical decoupling on the example of the Iranian automotive industry, which experienced three geopolitical decouplings from automotive industry GPNs since 1979. It demonstrates the short- and long-term effects of geopolitical decoupling and recoupling on the Iranian automotive industry in the context of the strategic responses by the state and the political struggles over the nature of the state industrial development policy in Iran.

Analysis of Bilateral Trade between Bulgaria and Ukraine

This study examines the state of trade in goods between Bulgaria and Ukraine for the 2016-2022 period. One of this research’s main objectives is to analyze each trading partner’s role in bilateral trade. Using statistical analysis methods, we estimate each country’s share of bilateral trade for imports and exports of the top imported/exported products. Based on the analysis, it is found that in some product groups such as Group 72 “Iron and Steel”, Group 86 “Railway or Tramway Locomotives, Rolling Stock and Parts Thereof” and Group 27 “Petroleum Oils and Oils Obtained From Bituminous Minerals”, Bulgaria and Ukraine have already established long-term relationships. For the five-year 2016-2021 period, Ukrainian exports to Bulgaria have increased by 100%, and imports have increased by 214%. The results of this study may contribute to further scientific research to determine the direction of development of international trade in both countries. The positive trends in each country’s exports to the other encourage additional investments, particularly in the manufacture of these products and in the search for new market niches.

Інтеграційні процеси в системі захисту національних економічних інтересів країн Західної Європи у повоєнний період

The protracted war intensifies Ukraine’s political, financial, and economic dependence on partner countries, which determines the importance of protecting national interests and strengthening its own competitive advantages. At the same time, further integration of the country into the global economic space is a victory, national security, and a successful post-war recovery guarantee. It determines the importance of the historical assessment of the integration processes’ role in national economic development. The purpose of the study is to summarize the results of the European integration impact on the post-war economic reconstruction of the Western European countries in terms of overcoming the region's financial and economic dependence on foreign aid and protecting national interests. Concepts of international economic integration are the theoretical basis of the research. The research methodology is based on the problem-logical, historical-genetic, comparative, and statistical analysis. The research determines that the formation of regional European associations and the involvement of Western European countries in the integration processes, which was carried out through the trade barriers reduction, the multilateral agreements, and the assistance regime agreements, was caused by a number of conditions and factors, including harmful post-war social and economic consequences, the destabilization of American-European trade and the dollar deficit, powerful foreign aid within the framework of the Marshall Plan, which contributed to the restoration of the industrial and commercial potential of countries, the joint policy of the US and Western European countries regarding security, peace, and prosperity. It has been proven that in the post-war reconstruction terms, trade and economic integration became a determinant of the activation of intra-European trade, the formation of a single European market, the strengthening of export technology, which helped to overcome the financial and economic dependence of the region on the USA and the realization of the national competitive advantages of the Western European countries in international trade. The integration processes were an induced, but objective response of the Western European governments to post-war threats and risks. Although integration involved some limitations of countries in terms of legal regulation and the joint implementation of trade, monetary, and financial policies, it led to the formation of a system of supranational economic management based on democratization, harmonization, and consolidation, contributed to the realization of national interests in terms of political security and economic growth.

Mercantile Life in Early 19th Century Southeast Asia: The Ross Brothers

Abstract: British traders operating in the East in the early nineteenth century faced warfare, piracy, and shipwreck, along with the competing interests of local rulers and East India Company (EIC) officials. This article looks at episodes in the maritime careers of three brothers to show how the commercial environment affected trade. The brothers were born in Jamaica, illegitimate sons of a Scottish trader who served as a government official and his freed slave. One son became a ship’s captain in the Bombay Marine, the private navy of the EIC and an important surveyor of Eastern seas. Another son also joined the Bombay Marine but left under unknown circumstances and transferred to the private ‘country trade’ after adopting a new name. The third son became a ship’s captain in the country trade and died after an attack by local pirates in Bangka. The family circumstances that led to the brothers’ careers and lives of their children are summarized to illustrate the social mobility of descendants of West Indian slaves in the early nineteenth century.

Country Traders, the East India Company, and the Rise of Singapore: ‘On Further Interference with the East-India Company’s Privileges of Exclusive Trade’

Country Traders, the East India Company, and the Rise of Singapore: ‘On Further Interference with the East-India Company’s Privileges of Exclusive Trade’

Analyzing the impact of the organization of Turkic states on the foreign trade of member countries

Analyzing the impact of the organization of Turkic states on the foreign trade of member countries

Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on International Trade and Finance

Abstract: Beyond its geopolitical roots, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had a significant effect on international trade and finance in both countries. This study explores the complex effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on national economies. This study examines the complex interactions between the factors influencing the internal trade and finance sectors using a thorough research technique that incorporates qualitative and quantitative assessments. This study investigates interruptions in supply networks, changes in trade patterns, and the difficulties experienced by firms in navigating geopolitical uncertainty in order to determine the impact on domestic commerce. The examination also explores the world of finance, investment environments, and currency stability. This research reveals complex insights into the dynamic economic landscape driven by geopolitical tensions through meticulous data collecting and strong analytical techniques. The results of this study show how the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had a significant impact on domestic trade and finance. Businesses must adapt to shifting markets and geopolitical concerns while facing unprecedented obstacles. Financial institutions struggle with volatility, which calls for creative approaches to guarantee stability. Additionally, this research reveals policy ramifications, providing useful information for governments and companies looking to be resilient in the face of geopolitical unrest. In the end, this research offers useful information that is crucial for financial institutions, corporations, and governments in addition to advancing scholarly discourse. Stakeholders may successfully manage obstacles by comprehending the complex interactions between geopolitical conflicts and national economies. This will promote economic stability and sustainable growth in the face of difficulty.

Research On the Level of Unimpeded Trade of Countries Along The "The Belt and Road" And the Efficiency of China's OFDI

Research On the Level of Unimpeded Trade of Countries Along The "The Belt and Road" And the Efficiency of China's OFDI

Is household shock a boon or bane to the utilisation of preventive healthcare for children? Evidence from Uganda

This paper investigates how poor households in low-income countries trade off time investment in their children’s preventive healthcare vis-à-vis labour force participation during household-level health shocks. By using the reported illness or death of any household member as the indicator for an adverse health shock, I examine its effect on the intake of Vitamin A Supplementation (VAS) by children. Using four waves of the Uganda National Panel Survey, I find that children between 12–24 months are significantly more likely to get VAS when the household is under a health shock. I argue that this effect works through an economies of scale mechanism, by which the household adult(s) utilise the released time from the labour force during the shock to access remedial care from the healthcare facility and simultaneously obtain VAS for their children during the same visit. This arguably results from the high opportunity cost of time-constrained households, which is exacerbated by a mediocre service delivery side. To distinguish the unique mechanism of the health shock in this context, the effect and channels of an income shock are also explored. By proxying a negative income shock with the household-reported incidence of flood or drought, the study cautiously hints that VAS adoption may increase among the relatively wealthy who experience a dominating substitution effect of the income shock.

The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation on China's Air Conditioning Industry

Based on the background of China's current trade with other countries is becoming increasingly close, the study of exchange rate stability on the impact of China's trade with other countries to promote China's economic stability has a certain theoretical significance. In the study of air conditioning industry import and export trade factors affecting the attention of the national exchange rate is very important, in the two countries trade relations, the exchange rate is a measure of the two countries to buy, sell the price of the product of the vital factors, exchange rate changes for the enterprise will bring a certain degree of impact, stabilization of the exchange rate for the promotion of our country and the trade of other countries in the long term and good cooperation has important practical significance. The air-conditioning manufacturing industry is a very representative research object. The cost-sensitive home appliance industry is a labor-intensive industry, which provides a huge number of jobs for China and creates a huge amount of foreign exchange income. At the same time, the home appliance industry, as a representative of China's manufacturing industry, faces industrial upgrading pressure and is in the maturity of a fully competitive industry, which has been severely impacted by exchange rate changes. It is of great significance to correctly measure and analyze the foreign exchange risk exposure of the import and export of the air-conditioning industry and its influencing factors. From a micro point of view, enterprises can be based on foreign exchange risk exposure situation targeted adjustment of financial strategies, strategies and management methods. From a macro point of view, the country can be based on the overall foreign exchange risk exposure characteristics of home appliances to formulate the correct macroeconomic policy.

Exchange Rate Forecasting in Bangladesh: ARIMA and VAR Models

Exchange rates play a crucial role in the economic structure of any country since they affect investment, foreign trade, and the stability of the economy as a whole. This research article explores the intricate dynamics of exchange rate development in Bangladesh, a country with a rapidly growing economy and a significant presence in the global trade landscape. The article delves into the historical evolution of exchange rates in Bangladesh, the factors influencing exchange rate movements, and the implications for the country's macroeconomic stability and international trade. The study employs various methodologies, including time-series analysis and econometric modeling to provide a comprehensive analysis of exchange rate development and near-term exchange rate forecast in Bangladesh. The findings indicate that exchange rate policies and external economic factors play a pivotal role in shaping Bangladesh's exchange rate regime, affecting the country's economic performance and trade competitiveness. The study also focuses on the future challenges for exchange rates in Bangladesh which are interconnected with the country's economic development and global economic dynamics.