The structure, dynamics, and vulnerability of the global food trade network

Abstract

The global food trade network (FTN) plays a critical role in ensuring food security. Given the increasing scale and complexity of trade, understanding the inherent dynamics and potential vulnerabilities of FTN becomes an urgent concern. Here, this study employed complex network method to investigate the structure, dynamics, and vulnerabilities of the trade networks associated with four main food crops (rice, maize, wheat, and soybeans) over the period 2000 to 2019. Our results show that the FTN has features consistent with both scale-free and small-world networks. A small percentage of 10% of major food producing countries trade with a significant proportion of 80% of all countries within the network. In the examined period, FTN has experienced remarkable changes, emerging economies such as China, India, Brazil and Russia have become more important, offsetting the historical dominance of nations such as the United States, Canada and Australia. In addition, many countries become increasingly reliant on food imports, the number of their trading partners within the FTN is decreasing, highlights potential increasing vulnerabilities. Simulation analysis also show that disruptions affecting about 5% of nations could seriously destabilize the FTN, which would be a cautionary tale for the stability of future food systems. This research provides policymakers with a fundamental perspective on mitigating potential risks in global FTN.