General Trade Research Articles

Efforts to Control Work Accident Risks in Steel Construction Work Using the Job Safety Analysis (JSA) Method. (Case Study at PT. Xyz)

PT. XYZ is a PT engaged in general contracting, outsourcing, trading and services. In the company there are several workers who had work accidents. According to existing data for 2021-2022 in fabrication work, most accidents are related to negligence of workers at PT. XYZ, namely in the grinding process from being cut to tripping over cables, so the authors conducted this research aiming to reduce and minimize work accidents of workers in the workplace. This research was conducted by measuring accidents in every activity at PT. XYZ. Data processing is done by calculating the level of risk assessment, then determining the level of efficiency to be achieved using the Job Safety Analysis (JSA) method. The results of the risk assessment for each job show that there is one highest level of risk, namely in the drilling section with a likelihood value of three and a severity level of four. From the results of risk control in the fabrication process, it can be carried out by means of technical control (repairing or adding technical equipment such as installation Occupational Health and Safety signs), administrative control (briefing before work, using special tools to lift materials), and using PPE. Proposed improvements that can be given are the addition of several personal protective equipment suitable for work at the fabrication site, namely the use of gloves, wearing masks, gloves, safety shoes and welding goggles. From the results of risk control in the fabrication process, it can be carried out by means of technical control (repairing or adding technical equipment such as installing K3 signs), administrative control (briefing before work, using special tools to lift material), and using PPE. Proposed improvements that can be given are the addition of several personal protective equipment suitable for work at the fabrication site, namely the use of gloves, wearing masks, Occupational Health, and Safety signs), administrative control (briefing before work, using special tools to lift materials), and using PPE. Proposed improvements that can be given are the addition of several personal protective equipment suitable for work at the fabrication site, namely the use of gloves, wearing masks, gloves, safety shoes and welding goggles.

PENGARUH PROPORSI SEPEDA MOTOR TERHADAP KINERJA JALAN PERKOTAAN

The Gunung Agung Denpasar road section is an urban road that experiences high traffic loads. This is due to the fact that land use along this road is very dense with various activity centers, such as shopping centers and general trade, education, offices, and other public facilities. In addition, Gunung Agung Road is a connecting road and traffic crossing between the city center and suburban areas. The traffic load is dominated by motorbikes with a higher proportion than other modes of transportation. The purpose of this study was to determine the performance of the Gunung Agung road. Traffic data collection is done by a manual survey to record traffic volume, speed, and side resistance. The results of the analysis show road performance, such as the maximum traffic volume obtained is 2,177.30 pcu/hour, with the proportion of motorbikes at 87.16%, the average speed is 23.47 km/hour, the average degree of saturation (DS) is 0,85. The level of road service includes level D in Segment II and E which occurs in Segment I, the flow is approaching unstable, and drivers are starting to feel congestion. High traffic density, and side barriers of 362.5 (300-4999) are included in the medium category, namely industrial areas with shopping centers (shops) on the side of the road.

How does the belt and road initiative promote China's import?

AbstractWe estimate the policy effect of belt and road initiative (BRI) on China's import. We use highly detailed, product‐country level data from China Customs Trade Statistics Database which covers 5364 types of products and 201 economies from 2010 to 2017 to investigate the policy effects and the underlying mechanisms. We find that the BRI has significantly boosted China's imports from countries along the route. The BRI have significant expansion effect on imports of existing products as well as positive effects on imports of new product import and product exit, which means BRI may also contribute to the optimization of product structure and growth in value of China's imports. Moreover, BRI have positive effects on both general trade and processing trade. Mechanism analysis shows that policy coordination, cultural affinity, and maritime transportation connectivity have strong explanatory power on the policy effects of BRI. We also find that the BRI has played a "boosting" role for import boost for new RTA partner as well as non‐RTA members along the route. We further examine the impact of BRI on global bilateral trade, and the result shows that BRI has generally promoted bilateral trade among all countries along the route, not limited to origin‐China pairs.

Global value chain participation and firm capacity utilization: Evidence from China

Based on firm- and customs transaction-level data from 2000 to 2006, this study employs the translog cost function to measure the capacity utilization of Chinese firms. It then uses a difference-in-differences (DID) model combined with propensity score matching (PSM) to examine the impact of global value chain (GVC) participation on capacity utilization. The empirical results show that GVC participation has a significant positive impact on firm capacity utilization and that this impact lasts for a long time. Our results are robust after considering several potential problems. Mechanism testing reveals that GVC participation improves firm capacity utilization by expanding market demand and promoting technological progress. Heterogeneity analysis shows that GVC participation has a more significant impact on general trade firms, private firms, high-tech industry firms and firms in the western region of China. This study reveals that GVC participation can effectively ameliorate China's overcapacity, providing new ideas for achieving overcapacity governance.

The trade and welfare effects of the belt and road initiative

AbstractThis paper evaluates the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). We estimate the partial trade effect of the BRI using the synthetic control method. By feeding the implied trade cost reduction into counterfactual equations, we simulate the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of the BRI based on the structural gravity model. We find that the BRI has greatly increased China's and BRI members' trade and welfare, with little impact on non‐BRI members.

Assessing the feasibility of hyperlocal delivery model as an effective distribution channel

PurposeThe successive waves of the Covid-19 SARS-II pandemic and the attendant lockdown imposed by the governments worldwide drove the economic activities to a halt. Offices and factories closed, production of goods and services declined and supply chains got severely disrupted. Many companies were embattled with the grim reality of shrinkage of aggregate demand, first due to supply shock and later due to loss of jobs and wages. Amidst all this, the handling and shipping of commodities became extremely complex. As the pandemic shifted consumer preference in favour of digital platforms, more and more fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies were confronted with multiple strategies and choices of an appropriate distribution channel to ensure smooth delivery of raw materials and products. The present study aims to study this shift and its implications in the Indian context.Design/methodology/approachA mix-method approach, integrating quantitative and qualitative analysis, is employed to investigate the factors influencing the selection of distribution channels amongst general trade, modern trade, e-commerce and hyperlocal for FMCG companies in India. The first phase of the study uses exploratory factor analysis (EFA), followed by the application of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) approach in a fuzzy environment to realise the priority weights and ranking of the identified factors. Finally, sensitivity analysis is performed to confirm the robustness of the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) outcomes.FindingsThe study revealed that modern trade has emerged as the most favoured channel in the post-pandemic Indian economy. It has the potential to disrupt general trade. The study also revealed that the hyperlocal delivery model is not economically viable, and the partnership of FMCG companies with these applications is at best a short-term solution. However, it must be submitted that due to its sheer capability to ensure quick deliveries within a confined geographic area, hyperlocal delivery will gain momentum with the advancement of technology.Originality/valueThis study can be seen as the first attempt to investigate the issues related to the selection of the distribution channels in the FMCG sector of India using multi-criteria decision-making technique (MCDM).

Exploring market-driven adaptation to climate change in a general equilibrium global trade model

Exploring market-driven adaptation to climate change in a general equilibrium global trade model

Determinants of Jordanian Current Account during the Period (1995-2018)

Objectives: The study aims to analyze the Jordanian current account determinants during the period of 1995-2018 and demonstrate their importance in affecting the Jordanian current account balance to draw policies and find ways to help reduce the deficit in the current account balance in Jordan.
 Methods: The analytical-qualitative and the econometric methods were adopted in addition to the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to examine the relationship between the current account deficit and the economic factors affecting it.
 Results: The study revealed that there are long-term effects between the study variables, mainly general budget deficit, private savings, trade exposure rate, effective real exchange rate, international exchange rate, gross investment, GDP growth rate, and current account balance. The results also indicated a negative impact of the general budget deficit, private savings, and trade exposure rate on the current account balance and a positive impact of the effective real exchange rate, gross investment, and GDP growth rate on the current account balance. The study shows that Jordan has a deficit in the current account balance, and this is mainly due to the impact of the negative budget deficit and the deficit of its trade balance.
 Conclusions: The study recommends implementing some strategies to stabilize the current account deficit, the most important of which are supporting and promoting Jordanian exports, focusing on controlling public expenditure, reducing external debt, and stimulating and diversifying productive sectors.

Cutting through the value chain: the long-run effects of decoupling the East from the West

With ever-increasing political tensions between China and Russia on one side and the EU and the US on the other, it only seems a matter of time until protectionist policies cause a decoupling of global value chains. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium trade model calibrated with the latest version of the GTAP database to simulate the effect of such a decoupling–implemented by doubling non-tariff barriers–between the two blocks on trade and welfare. Imposing import barriers almost completely eliminates bilateral imports. In addition, changes in price levels lead to higher imports and lower exports of the imposing country group from and to the rest of the world. The targeted country group increases exports to the rest of the world and reduces imports. Welfare falls in all countries involved, suggesting that governments should strive to cooperate rather than turn away from each other. By imposing a trade war on Russia, the political West could inflict severe damage on the Russian economy because of the latter’s smaller relative economic size.

Quantifying the impact of Russia–Ukraine crisis on food security and trade pattern: evidence from a structural general equilibrium trade model

PurposeConsidering the importance of Russia and Ukraine in agriculture, the authors quantify the potential impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on food output, trade, prices and food security for the world.Design/methodology/approachThe authors mainly use the quantitative and structural multi-country and multi-sector general equilibrium trade model to analyze the potential impacts of the conflict on the global food trade pattern and security.FindingsFirst, the authors found that the conflict would lead to soaring agricultural prices, decreasing trade volume and severe food insecurity especially for countries that rely heavily on grain imports from Ukraine and Russia, such as Egypt and Turkey. Second, major production countries such as the United States and Canada may even benefit from the conflict. Third, restrictions on upstream energy and fertilizer will amplify the negative effects of food insecurity.Originality/valueThis study analyzed the effect of Russia–Ukraine conflict on global food security based on sector linkages and the quantitative general equilibrium trade framework. With a clearer demonstration of the influence about the inherent mechanism based on fewer parameters compared with traditional Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) models, the authors showed integrated impacts of the conflict on food output, trade, prices and welfare across sectors and countries.

Приоритетные направления оптимизации процессов цифровизации международной торговли

Digitalization of the global economic system in general and cross-border trade, in particular, has become particularly relevant due to the difficult economic situation in the world caused by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2019. As a result, online commerce has taken a leading position in the movement of goods using the Internet telecommunications network. In connection with the above, it can be concluded that the topic of digitalization of crossborder trade in goods is relevant today and occupies a leading position in the field of further development of remote information and communication technologies. In the presented article, the author comprehensively examines the actual problematic aspects of the processes of digitalization of international trade in modern political and socio-economic conditions, and also identifies possible directions for optimizing these processes.

Impact of WTO’s Trade Liberalisation on Selected Food Crops in Pakistan

There is a great potential in Pakistan for production of all types of food commodities due to vast natural resource base, covering various ecological and climatic zones. Most of the agricultural commodities produced in the country are consumed by the local population while the rest is exported in the form of primary products and some value added products. Previously, Pakistani products had a good market overseas with no restrictions of quality and quantity but under the changing environment affected by WTO, it is expected that Pakistan will face a strong competition in the agriculture sector from its competitors in the world market. According to the neoclassical trade theory, trade flows and pattern will develop along the lines of comparative advantage and competitiveness that can act as indicators of trade potential and direction. There has been extensive government involvement in the determination of the overall structure of agriculture and its patterns of production, employment and trade. Pakistani government has been intervening in agriculture sector in the past in order to support agricultural production, income supports, ensure food security, improve the balance of trade, reduce consumer prices, address environmental and regional concerns and to pursue sanitary and phyto-sanitary objectives [Hassan (1995)]. Pakistan is a founding member of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) since its creation. Following the Uruguay Round negotiations, all agricultural products were brought under multinational trade rules by WTO, under the Agreement on Agriculture. This established a framework to begin liberalising agricultural trade through the reduction of import duties (tariffs), trade-distorting production subsidies and export subsidies. Prior to the Uruguay Round, trade in agriculture was highly distorted. Market access for agricultural products was limited as most markets were restricted by physical import barriers. The presence of massive domestic subsidies led to overproduction of temperate crops in the developed countries that led to excess supply, and export subsidies were used to dump the surplus agricultural output in international markets. This resulted in depressed market prices and, in spite of being low-cost producers of agricultural products; developing countries could not compete with the subsidised exports from developed countries.

Idegen szavak elavulása határon innen és túl

In my study, I would like to deal with those foreign words that have become obsolete in Hungary, but are still in live use in other parts of the Hungarian language area. This is usually explained by the fact that speakers in the regions have adopted them from the language of contact, ie they are modeled on Serbian, Croatian, Slovenian, German, Slovak, Ukrainian or Romanian. Obsolescence can be complete, it can cover the whole word, then it is obsolete in all its meanings, but sometimes the use of the word only in a certain sense is old, obsolete, it is considered partial obsolescence. An obsolete foreign word or its equivalent in the motherland may appear in use in several ancient ways, and sometimes it appears only in one of the regions. For example, the word advokát 'lawyer, legal adviser', which is obsolete in Hungary, can be found in the same form, meaning 'lawyer' in the Hungarian regional languages of Transylvania, the Highlands, Vojvodina, Transcarpathia, Croatia and Mura region. In the meaning of ‘general trade’, the obsolete equivalent of the main name of the bazár occurs only in the Highlands, in the form of a bazár and a autóbazár, denoting a used car dealership following the Slovak model. It seems a coincidence that the same word in one language becomes obsolete, is not required by speakers, and the other language needs and uses it, does not allow it to become obsolete. En pre-sumably has a rational explanation. It should be borne in mind that the acquisition of foreign words is not a phenomenon that takes place equally in different languages, so the path of a foreign word taken from contact languages is not necessarily the same as the etiology of an obsolete foreign word in Hungary. The time, place and method of receipt must also be taken into account for a proper evaluation. Quite a few foreign words came to Hungarian in Hungary through German me-diation, but their counterparts reached Hungarian Serbs via French and Serbian mediation. There are some obsolete ones among them. For example, obsolete kredit meaning ‘loan’ is of German origin in Hungarian in Hungary. In Vojvodina's parlance, the meaning of kredit of French-Serbian origin is, on the one hand, a 'loan, a loan' and, on the other hand, an amount of ‘money that can be negotiated (on a mobile phone); frame'. It has its first meaning in Transylvania, Croatia, the Mura region and the Guardian region, and the second in Transylvania and the Highlands. The phenome-non may also be related to the fact that speakers living in regions outside Hungary rarely use the Hungarian equivalent of an outdated foreign word, or do not know the foreign word at all under the influence of another language, in which case the kredit noun is used instead of the hitel noun used.

Supervised Machine Learning Classification for Short Straddles on the S&P500

In this paper, we apply machine learning models to execute certain short-option strategies on the S&P500. In particular, we formulate and focus on a supervised classification task which decides if a plain short straddle on the S&P500 should be executed or not on a daily basis. We describe our used framework and present an overview of our evaluation metrics for different classification models. Using standard machine learning techniques and systematic hyperparameter search, we find statistically significant advantages if the gradient tree boosting algorithm is used, compared to a simple “trade always” strategy. On the basis of this work, we have laid the foundations for the application of supervised classification methods to more general derivative trading strategies.

The impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on global food security

Ukraine and Russia are two important grain producers and exporters in the world, accounting for 12% and 17% of the world's wheat exports, respectively. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine may greatly impact Ukraine's wheat production and export as well as Russia's wheat export. Satellite observations have showed signs of wheat production reduction in Ukraine in the season 2021–2022. Considering the uncertainty of the conflict duration, we have designed three scenarios (i.e., slight, medium, and severe) depending on how the war would significantly impact the wheat harvest and trade disruption. From analysis of potential impacts of the conflict on global wheat market under the general equilibrium trade model, we have found that the conflict would lead to a trade drop (60%), soaring wheat prices (50%), and severe food insecurity with decreased purchasing power for wheat (above 30%) in the most severe scenario, especially for countries that heavily rely on wheat imports from Ukraine, such as Egypt, Turkey, Mongolia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. Considering the role of Russia and Ukraine in agricultural input sectors including oil, natural gas, and fertilizers, especially Russia, the trade blockade caused by the conflict will give rise to price increase by 10%–30% and welfare decline by 15–25% for most affected countries. The conflict would put as many as 1.7 billion people in hunger and 276 million people in severe food insecurity. Food shortages, energy shortages and inflation have spread to many countries like dominoes which have fallen into trouble one after another with social unrest day after day. Our analysis also shows that countries including the United States, China, India, Canada, Australia, France, Argentina, and Germany would increase their wheat production and exports for the reconstruction of the global wheat supply pattern. The modeled results indicate that the conflict-induced global wheat crisis and food insecurity can be notably alleviated if these countries increase their production by 2%–3% in 2022–2023 and unnecessary trade restrictions are exempted.

The Mechanism of the Impact of Export Trade on Environmental Pollution: A Study from a Heterogeneous Perspective on Environmental Regulation from China

The majority of the literature currently in existence on trade and pollution has concentrated on the analysis of both factors’ combined effects, and only a few studies have used heterogeneous environmental regulation as a starting point to investigate the underlying mechanisms of the impact of export trade on environmental pollution at the indirect level. We construct a mediating and moderating effect model using panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2002 to 2019 to investigate the mechanism of the effect of export trade on environmental pollution. Export trade produces large indirect inhibitory effects on environmental pollution only through market incentive-based restrictions, whereas the mediation impacts of government administrative and public monitoring laws are not significant. By interacting with elements such as technical innovation and energy structure, export trade can also negatively regulate its bad consequences on environmental degradation. According to the heterogeneity analysis’s findings, processing trade indirectly reduces pollution emissions by changing administrative rules and cutting emission costs, but general trade indirectly increases environmental pollution by favorably impacting market-based incentives regulations. The moderating effects of improving energy structures, industrial structure optimization, and R&D competition effects diminish the positive aggravating effect of general trade on pollution emissions, while processing trade has the opposite effect. The only means of controlling the harmful impact of processing trade on environmental degradation is through interaction with technical progress.

Who votes for free trade and when? Geopolitics as the source of legislative preferences on free trade agreements

Why do legislators support some free trade agreements but oppose others? Despite a wide variation in legislative support for free trade agreements, the heterogeneous preferences of legislators have received little attention in the literature, which largely focuses on general trade policy preferences of legislators and individual voters. We bring in geopolitical factors as a key source of legislative preferences on specific free trade agreements. Using voting records of the U.S. House representatives on all major bills related to free trade agreements, we find that the geostrategic importance of potential trading partner has a substantial effect on voting for trade agreements. We find that legislators become less sensitive to their constituents’ economic interests when considering trade agreements with allies or countries with closely aligned interests. This highlights the importance of examining security externalities of trade cooperation.

RANCANG BANGUN SISTEM PENGGAJIAN DENGAN METODE WATERFALL PADA PT.LANGGENG ENGINEERING TEKNIK INDONESIA

The payroll system is a continuous process related to employee management. Processing employee data apart from calculating the amount of salary to be received and employee income tax, the payroll system is also used to allocate labor costs to products. Payroll data management requires an information system that can manage payroll data accurately and on time. PT Langgeng Engineering Teknik Indonesia is a company engaged in general trading, supplying industrial goods, infrastructure, fabrication, mechanics, electrical and maintenance services and pinting really needs a computerized payroll system by managing employee attendance data and working hours. The payroll system using the Waterfall method makes it easier for companies to manage employee salary data so that they can obtain precise and accurate salary calculations

Design And Implementation of Field Work Practices (PKL) With The Work Integrated Learning (WIL) Model At Health Vocational School (SMK) in Tangerang City

This study aims to analyze, find, and prove (1) design for the implementation of field work practices (PKL) at health vocational high schools (SMK) in Tangerang City. (2) Barriers to the Field Work Practice Program and its Implementation in the World of Work for Health Vocational School Graduates in Tangerang City (3) An Effective Cooperation Model in Tangerang City's Implementation of the Health Vocational Field Work Practice Program with the World of Work This type of research is qualitative research with a phenomenological approach. This research was carried out in one of the health vocational high schools (SMK) in Tangerang City, the Nursing Expertise Program. Data collection uses in-depth interviews, observation, and documentation techniques. The results showed that (1) there is still a weak relationship between educational institutions and the business/industry world, which leads to ineffective implementation, making it difficult for street vendors like participants to get jobs that match their competencies. (2) Some of the obstacles to the Field Work Practice Program and its implementation in the World of Work for Tangerang City Health Vocational School graduates are that there are still limited places for PKL implementation and there are still some hospitals and health centers that refuse PKL participants from health vocational schools. (3) The Work-Integrated Learning (WIL) model can improve the quality of the street vendor experience and make the right career choice by working together using the core-plasma pattern, franchise pattern, general trading pattern, operational cooperation pattern, and partnership pattern.

General Equilibrium Trade Policy Analysis among One Belt One Road Nations Using Structural Gravity Framework

Currently, the world is witnessing one of China’s most significant economic integration initiatives–One Belt One Road (OBOR). This article aims to evaluate the general equilibrium (GE) effects of this initiative on member nations. The structural gravity model is used in this study to perform the counterfactual analysis while analysing the conditional and general equilibrium effects of the trade policy of border removal on international trade flow among the member countries. The estimates suggest varied strade gains for the member countries in response to the trade policy changes. Most Asian countries are witnessing an increase in producers’ prices and therefore gaining more from globalisation. We also deduced that the member countries had reached half of their potential to trade gains, with most developing countries witnessing a decrease in multilateral trade resistance (MTR). The findings of this study implicate a debate for the policymakers over continuing support for further trade integration. JEL Codes: C21, F15, F17