Tourist Arrivals Research Articles

Predicting Tourist Arrivals in Greece With a Novel Tourism-Specific Business Leading Indicator

We introduce a novel tourism-specific business expectations sentiment index and explore whether it can operate as a leading indicator for international tourist arrivals in Greece. Using monthly data spanning 2002‐2021 and employing a VAR model, we document that this newly introduced tourism-specific business expectations index serves as a leading indicator, whose higher levels foreshadow increased demand for international travel. We also find that its inclusion in a tourism-oriented model increases forecasting accuracy, which can be utilized by travel agent businesses, local government officials, and policymakers in their efforts to predict tourist arrivals in Greece.

Effect of Political Stability on International Tourism in Kenya

Purpose: The aim of the study was to analyze the effect of political stability on international tourism in Kenya. Methodology: This study adopted a desk methodology. A desk study research design is commonly known as secondary data collection. This is basically collecting data from existing resources preferably because of its low cost advantage as compared to a field research. Our current study looked into already published studies and reports as the data was easily accessed through online journals and libraries. Findings: Political stability is essential for international tourism in Kenya, as stability fosters a sense of safety that attracts foreign visitors. During peaceful periods, Kenya sees growth in tourist arrivals and revenue, while political unrest, such as the post-election violence in 2007-2008, results in sharp declines as safety concerns deter tourists. Tourism in Kenya is highly sensitive to political fluctuations, with even minor instability affecting tourist perceptions. To sustain and grow its tourism sector, Kenya must prioritize political stability through effective governance, peaceful elections, and strong conflict resolution strategies, which will help build a resilient tourism industry. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Social conflict theory, political economy theory & the institutional theory may be used to anchor future studies on the effect of political stability on international tourism in Kenya. Implementing robust governance practices, such as transparency, accountability, and anti-corruption measures, will enhance the overall tourist experience and foster trust among potential visitors. Formulating policies that promote good governance and strengthen institutions will create a conducive environment for political stability.

The Impact of a Local Well-Being Philosophy on Revisit Intentions to Bali Among Digital Nomads

The level of success in tourism is gauged by several metrics; however, the most widely used is the level of tourist arrivals. However, this research answered the call for greater investigation of the impacts of qualitative factors and intangible cultural–heritage assets on destination performance. The primary research purpose was to analyze the effect of implementing a local well-being philosophy (Tri Hita Karana) on tourist revisit intentions for Bali and the mediation of destination quality and destination image. A research model was developed to examine the relationships among local wisdom (TKH), destination quality, destination image, and revisit intentions. Data were collected via a survey of 520 digital nomadic tourists and analyzed using SmartPLS 4. The results indicated that the implementation of THK positively and significantly affected revisit intentions, destination image, and destination quality. Destination image and destination quality had positive and significant effects on revisit intentions, and destination image and destination quality also significantly mediated the effect of THK implementation on revisit intentions. The findings suggested that implementing local wisdom values such as THK in the management of a destination makes visitors feel more favorably about the quality and image of the destination and they have the intention to revisit.

MODELING TOURIST ARRIVALS IN THE ISLAND GARDEN CITY OF SAMAL: IMPLICATIONS TO BUSINESS OPERATIONS OF TOURISM-RELATED INDUSTRY

<p>This study aimed to model the tourist arrivals in the Island Garden City of Samal (IGaCoS) by utilizing the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method. Specifically, this paper sought to determine whether there was a statistically appropriate forecasting model using the ARIMA approach, based on which it would be possible to reasonably forecast the number of tourist arrivals in IGaCoS. Quantitative secondary data were analyzed by employing the Box-Jenkins ARIMA. The time series plot was characterized by an apparent increasing trend combined with intermittent sinusoidal oscillations. The time series revealed a steady, gradual increase up until 2020. Next, a sharp decline was observed midway through 2020, indicative of the ill effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. A gradual increase was noted once more, starting in 2021, with some fluctuations. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test revealed that the time series was non-stationary at level— but was made stationary after differenced twice. The ARIMA (1,2,1) model was found to be statistically significant. The fitted model initially showed some notable deviations from the original data, but, with time, converged closely to the actual values, proving it is a reliable way to represent underlying patterns. The ARIMA (1,2,1) model, selected for having the lowest AIC and BIC values and a MAPE within the acceptable range for reasonable forecasting, was used to predict tourist arrivals in IGaCoS over the next six months. The forecasted values suggested a mix of fluctuations and stability. There was a noticeable upward trajectory at the beginning, which was followed by a slight decline at the end that yet remained stable. The forecasted results from the ARIMA (1,2,1) model may provide businesses with a roadmap for comprehensive planning in terms of operational and strategic concerns. This study helped address Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) No. 8, Decent Work and Economic Growth.</p><p><strong>JEL:</strong> L83, R11, C53</p><p> </p><p><strong> Article visualizations:</strong></p><p><img src="/-counters-/soc/0776/a.php" alt="Hit counter" /></p>

Tourism’s Influence on Economic Growth and Environment in Saudi: Present and Future

Reports from the World Tourism Organization indicate that tourism activity has been increasingly booming; this sector is essential for economic growth and may affect the environment. Tourism is one of the key strategic sectors for planned growth in Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. This study is designed to evaluate the long-termning association between tourist arrivals, growth domestic product (GDP), and CO2 emissions in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). The data related to these variables were assessed for the period 2010 to 2020. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds results revealed that there are long-established relations between tourist arrivals and growth domestic product and tourist arrivals and CO2 emissions. The dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) model outcomes were compatible with the outcomes of the ARDL model. In reference to the Granger causality test, tourist arrivals cause (affect) the GDP. Such a result confirms the conception that tourism encourages economic growth. No causality runs from tourist arrivals towards CO2 accumulation. This result may reflect the governmental effort to reduce CO2 accumulation and/or to perform tourism activities in a sustainable way. The results predicted that the growth rate of tourist arrivals, GDP, and CO2 accumulation equal 0.0023, 0.048, and 0.0169, respectively, during the forecast period (2021–2030), which appeared to be increasing for tourist arrivals and GDP and decreasing for CO2 accumulation. The study recommended that, to increase economic growth, tourist arrivals should be increased alongside performing tourism activities in a sustainable way. These findings point to the benefits of governance in ensuring effective policies to decarbonize the environment, and policy proposals are put forward accordingly.

The Dynamics of Tourism, Economic Growth, and CO2 Emissions in Uzbekistan: An ARDL Approach

In this study, we examined the impact of key macroeconomic variables on the sustainability of tourism in Uzbekistan using open data from the World Bank from 2000 to 2023. The selected variables for the study include the number of international tourists, GDP, CO2 emissions, and exchange rates. Considering the importance of climate issues in ensuring sustainable tourism, the study combines these factors using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to assess their long-term relationships. We chose this model due to its flexibility in dealing with variables of different integration orders. The results of the bounds testing procedure confirm the existence of a long-term cointegration relationship between the dependent variable (international tourist arrivals) and the selected macroeconomic indicators. Specifically, the study results indicate that GDP growth, exchange rate fluctuations, and CO2 emissions positively affect tourist arrivals to Uzbekistan. The findings of this study underscore the importance of infrastructure development and macroeconomic stability in attracting international tourists while emphasizing the need for sustainable international practices to mitigate environmental impacts. This study contributes to understanding the complex interrelationship between tourism development and macroeconomic variables in the context of developing countries and aids decision-making in this area.

Unveiling fluctuation patterns of tourist volume: Insights from 56 major attractions in China

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of tourist volume is crucial for effective tourism management and planning. However, existing tourism data analysis methods often fail to capture the complex, continuous fluctuations and temporal variations in tourist behavior. To address this challenge, we apply functional data analysis (FDA) in the tourism industry to provide a more nuanced understanding of tourist volume dynamics. Specifically, we perform FDA on real-time tourist volume data from 56 major attractions in Beijing, China, revealing intrinsic fluctuation patterns, key factors driving tourist arrivals, and the dynamic characteristics of attractions across temporal scales. Our findings enhance the ability to optimize attraction management, marketing strategies, and policy-making, while also advancing tourism data science by integrating FDA. This approach fills the methodological gap and offers a comprehensive framework for exploring the spatiotemporal complexities of tourism data.

Leveraging large language models for daily tourist demand forecasting

ABSTRACT Large Language Models have attracted the attention of tourism researchers, and many discussions have been published in leading tourism journals. However, little research has been conducted on how to use Large Language Models in tourism research. In this paper, we propose a new tourist arrival forecasting model based on the Large Language Model. The Large Language Model is used to extract and produce the satisfaction scores from the review comments by the tourists. The generated satisfaction scores are incorporated into the tourist arrival forecasting model to take full advantage of the extracted information from the review comments. We have applied the Large Language Model based forecasting model to predict the tourist arrival in Macao. Experiment results show that the proposed model has produced forecasts with improved forecasting accuracy.

The role of economic freedom in the development of international tourism in Asian countries

Purpose ― This paper aims to investigate the influence of economic freedom and its components, namely business freedom and trade freedom, on international tourist arrivals in Asian countries. Additionally, it examines the effect of important macroeconomic factors, such as foreign direct investment, exchange rates, political stability, GDP per capita, and inflation on international tourist arrivals in Asian countries.Methods ― The GMM two-step estimation system is used to analyze data from 25 Asian countries from 1995 to 2020.Findings ― The results show that economic and trade freedom positively influence tourism, while business freedom has a less distinct impact. Inflation positively contributes to tourist arrivals. Exchange rates and political stability show inconclusive effects.Implications ― The study recommends that governments prioritize expanding economic freedom to boost international tourism.Originality ― This is the first study on the impact of economic freedom on developing international tourism in Asian countries.

The Influence of World Heritage Sites on Tourism Dynamics in the EU 27 Nations

Culture and tourism are crucial for economic growth and sustainable development, working together symbiotically. Culture boosts tourism by supporting heritage, production, and creativity, while cultural heritage, reflecting national identity and traditions, strengthens local economies. This study uses a panel data analysis to examine the impact of cultural factors on international tourist arrivals in 27 EU nations. The Driscoll–Kraay method reveals that UNESCO World Heritage Sites, government cultural expenditures, household recreation and cultural expenditures, real GDP per job, and bed capacity positively influence international tourist numbers. Regarding cultural factors, World Heritage Sites have the most significant influence, with each additional UNESCO site leading to a 0.22% rise in tourist numbers. The most crucial determinant of tourist arrivals is bed capacity, with a one percent increase leading to a 0.66% increase in tourist arrivals. Conversely, healthcare expenditures and political civil liberties have a negative impact on tourist arrivals. This study discusses managerial implications and offers recommendations for future research.

Comparison of Holt Winter's and SARIMA Methods on the data of the Number of Foreign Tourist Visits in Bali Province

The tourism sector is a critical component of a country’s economy, including in Indonesia, where its impact is felt both nationally and regionally, such as in provinces and cities. This research focuses on Bali Province and aims to conduct a comparative analysis of the Holt-Winter’s and Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) methods for forecasting foreign tourist arrivals. The analysis centers on two primary entry points: Ngurah-Rai Airport and the seaport. The primary objective is to forecast the number of foreign tourist arrivals from February 2024 to January 2025. The results indicate that the Holt-Winter’s model has a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 5.2631%, which is lower than the MAPE of 5.8920% for the SARIMA model. Additionally, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for the Holt-Winter’s model is 19,149.18, compared to 20,883.20 for the SARIMA model. Consequently, this study concludes that the Holt-Winter’s model provides more accurate predictions and is closer to the actual values than the SARIMA model. Bali, Holt-Winter’s, forecasting, SARIMA, tourism.

Theatrical Rerelease: The Effect of Viewers’ Film Perceptions on Companion Preference, Willingness to Pay, and Willingness to Travel

While the recent theatrical rerelease of films has managed to bring large crowds back to the theaters, it is yet to be seen if rereleased films stimulate an increase in domestic tourist arrivals. In this regard, this study investigates the relationship between the viewers’ impression of the film in question and their behavioral intentions. The role of a film's cognitive and affective images in shaping the viewers’ willingness to travel is explored through direct and indirect effects of companion preference and willingness to pay. We use a sample of undergraduate and graduate students to test our hypotheses based on scales adapted from various studies. A total of 206 responses were collected and analyzed through PLS‐SEM. Results show a significant relationship between viewers’ cognitive impression of the film, their willingness to pay, and willingness to travel. While films??? affective image did not affect viewers’ behavioral intentions, it significantly affected their preference for having a companion. Our findings allow us to extend the current definitions of film tourism, which is limited to the idea of visiting destinations portrayed in the films. We then discuss how theatrical rereleases can assist destinations in elongating tourist stay and increase tourist arrivals.

Unpacking the economic impact of tourism: A multidimensional approach to sustainable development

While the literature has extensively explored the advantages and drawbacks of tourism, as well as attempts to establish connections between growth/development and tourism, comprehensive studies addressing the sustainable development impact of tourism remain scarce. Addressing this gap, our investigation focuses on understanding the association between tourism and the achievement of sustainable development goals. Using a panel dataset encompassing 160 economies from 1995 to 2019, we explore the link between two distinct measures of tourism (tourist arrivals as a fraction of total population and tourism revenue as a percentage of total exports) and various indicators of sustainable development, encompassing health, economy, education, social progress, and the environment. Our findings reveal a significant interaction between tourism and sustainable development, with the relationship notably differing between developed and developing economies, particularly in light of GDP per capita. Our research addresses a critical gap in existing literature by focusing on the sustainable development implications of tourism, an area where comprehensive studies remain scarce. By analyzing the complex relationship between tourism and sustainable development across diverse economies, our study provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders seeking to navigate the challenges of balancing economic growth with environmental and social sustainability.

Nonparametric Approach to Detecting Seasonality in Time Series: Application of the Kruskal-Wallis (KW) Test on Tourist Arrivals to Sri Lanka

Nonparametric Approach to Detecting Seasonality in Time Series: Application of the Kruskal-Wallis (KW) Test on Tourist Arrivals to Sri Lanka

Is financial development a prerequisite for the tourism-led growth phenomenon? World-wide evidence

Purpose This study aims to re-examine the growth effects of tourism and role of financial development in this process for countries across the globe for the period 1995–2018. Design/methodology/approach Considering the asymmetric effect of tourism on economic performance, the author makes use of a recently developed method of moments approach of quantile regression with fixed effects proposed by Machado and Silva (2019). Findings Model-based on tourist arrival shows a positive effect of tourism on economic performance. Yet, the effect is conditional and shows that relatively low-income economies are benefited more than high-income economies. The results also show that all types of tourism are beneficial for growth, yet business-related tourist arrivals are found to be comparatively more effective than other types of tourism. The evidence also shows that excess tourism does not dampen growth. Finally, the evidence suggests that financial development offers critical absorptive capacity, and tourism-led growth cannot be realised without it. Originality/value In contrast to previous studies, the approach effectively deals with non-normality, endogeneity and heterogeneity across issues. Furthermore, this study uniquely tests the role of financial development in channelling tourism-led development.

Statistical analysis of the type and seasonality of tourist arrivals at a UNESCO sightseeing tourism site: the example of Chernivtsi, Ukraine

In this research paper, a statistical analysis of the type and seasonality of arrivals to the former Residence of the Bukovina Metropolitans in Chernivtsi (Ukraine) was carried out. Based on a time series for 2000–2023, types were considered according to such categories as adults, pupils/students and domestic visitors or inbound tourists by country of origin. Each of them was considered over the time series. The results of the analysis allow us to establish the effects of the factors influencing tourist flows on ‘calm’ Chernivtsi in a country at war. Thus, it is possible to see nuances to the influence of threats and dangers on domestic and inbound tourism in Ukraine. The analysis of seasonality, thanks to the location in the mid‑latitudes, has made it possible to establish the influence of climate on the distribution of tourism throughout the year. The UNESCO status of the former Residence of the Bukovina Metropolitans increases the value of the research not only due to the analysis, but also due to the primary data to which the authors had exclusive access, as university teachers located on the site. This research paper is a follow‑up to that presented in “Methodical approaches and statistical analysis of tourist arrivals to centers of sightseeing tourism (based on the example of Chernivtsi, Ukraine)” (Korol, Krul, Zayachuk & Kostash, 2023).

Features of the Development of International Trade in Tourist Services

Introduction. The relevance of studying the peculiarities of the development of international trade in tourist services is determined by the significant role of world tourism in the structure of the global economy. In the conditions of a complex international political situation, which is dynamically changing, it is crucial to identify the vectors of the development of the tourism industry to determine the future structure of the macro-regional distribution of tourist flows. Aim and tasks. The purpose of this study is to identify the dominant factors and prospects for the development of international tourism business in the conditions of modern global economic and political instability to determine the most favourable marketing strategies for interaction in the international market of tourist services by extrapolating the results to the possibilities of post-war recovery of the tourism industry in Ukraine. Results. An analysis of international tourism arrivals showed that the average annual growth rate of the industry from 1995 to 2020 average annual growth of international tourist arrivals was more than 4 per cent. Over the estimated period from 1995 to 2023, the average arrival rate decreased to 2.46 per cent. Macro-regions are considered the most promising for the scaling of international tourism, as well as the factors that will contribute to this and can inhibit economic processes. Special attention is paid to the positioning of Ukraine during the post-war recovery of the tourism industry. Forecast indicators indicate that international tourist arrivals to Ukraine could reach 61 million people in the tenth year of the post-war period. An alternative strategy for promoting national tourist products and brands in the target markets of Central and Eastern Europe, Asia, and the Middle East was proposed, and the feasibility of continuing the promotion of Ukraine as a tourist brand was substantiated. Conclusions. This study confirms the vector of the shift in global tourist flows under the influence of a number of factors that deepen the contradictions between the Global South and the North, revealing key trends in the growth and displacement of international tourist flows among countries belonging to two opposite camps. The directions of institutional and structural changes required to restore international tourism in Ukraine in the post-war period to strengthen Ukraine's position in the global tourism market are proposed.

The analytical hierarchical process (AHP) approach to study the tourist choice behavior in rural southern India: Promoting responsible tourism practices

The primary objective of the study is to evaluate the prioritization of the services marketing mix and compare the outcomes between first-time and repeat visitors in selecting a rural destination. Six rural tourism destinations were selected from four different southern states of India. Approximately 512 respondents consisting of 292 first-time visitors and 220 multiple-time visitors participated in a questionnaire survey carried out from May 2023 to October 2023. Multicriteria method, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is applied to examine the prioritisation of services marketing mix components and ranking is done concerning the reason behind choosing a particular rural destination. The present study reveals that many new visitors favor rural tourist locations due to their affordability and variety of experiences. In addition, repeat visitors also choose rural areas based on the native resident’s attitude, customer service, cultural orientation, training, language proficiency, information and communication processes and facilities and services. Efficient marketing is important for promoting tourism in rural destinations and increase the arrival of tourists . The article also proposes the adoption of responsible tourism practices, which are essential for protecting cultural assets and ensuring that local populations get fair and equal benefits from tourism. The research also provides significant insights to destination management firms on the formulation of services marketing mix strategies, policy choices, and initiatives aimed at expanding rural tourism in India.

Can low-carbon city pilot policy boost tourism development? Empirical evidence from China.

As an environmental regulatory tool in achieving green development, the low-carbon city pilot policy (LCCP) considerably influence tourism enhancement. Using China's 261 prefecture-level cities, this paper empirically delve the implication of LCCP to tourism from two tourism dimensions of tourism revenue and tourism arrivals employing the time-varying DID methodology. Results empirically reveal that the LCCP contributes to boosting tourism development, and after undergoing numerous robustness tests, this finding stands. The "arrivals growth effect" of LCCP is stronger than the "revenue improvement effect." Moreover, the impact of LCCP on domestic tourism is more profound than on inbound tourism. Heterogeneity analyses show the boosting impact is more pronounced in third-tier and above cities and non-resource-based cities. Upon further testing its transmission mechanism, we discover that the LCCP raises tourism revenues and arrival levels through industrial structural upgrading and innovation capacity improvement. The study clarifies the theoretical mechanisms and policy effects of LCCP on tourism development, which is valuable for assessing the tourism effects of LCCP and other environmental regulations and exploring the expanding path of sustainable tourism development.

TREND ANALYSIS AND CORRELATION OF TOURIST, RESTAURANT AND HOTEL VISITS IN KUNINGAN REGENCY

This study conducts an in-depth analysis of the tourism sector in Kuningan Regency, focusing specifically on hotel stays, tourist arrivals, and restaurant visits. Utilizing forecasting models and correlation analyses, the research aims to uncover trends and interdependencies within the sector. The primary objective is to identify actionable insights that can inform data-driven decision-making. The study employs the FBProphet algorithm for forecasting future trends and conducts Kendall correlation analysis to examine relationships among key variables. Data collected spans a time series of 84 months, from January 2016 to December 2022. FBProphet accurately predicts trends in hotel stays, while variations exist in predictions for tourist arrivals and restaurant visits. Mean values for hotel stays, tourist arrivals, and restaurant visits are 21,098.67, 135,647.33, and 130,660.83, respectively. Kendall correlation analysis reveals a moderate positive correlation (0.214, p-value = 0.004) between tourist arrivals and restaurant visits, a strong positive correlation (0.324, p-value = 1.291e-05) between tourist arrivals and hotel stays, and a weaker positive correlation (0.176, p-value = 0.019) between restaurant visits and hotel stays. These findings underscore the intricate dynamics of Kuningan Regency's tourism sector, providing stakeholders with critical insights for strategic planning. The research contributes significantly to sustainable growth initiatives by guiding stakeholders in leveraging the interconnected elements of tourism and making well-informed decisions.