MODELING TOURIST ARRIVALS IN THE ISLAND GARDEN CITY OF SAMAL: IMPLICATIONS TO BUSINESS OPERATIONS OF TOURISM-RELATED INDUSTRY

Abstract

<p>This study aimed to model the tourist arrivals in the Island Garden City of Samal (IGaCoS) by utilizing the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method. Specifically, this paper sought to determine whether there was a statistically appropriate forecasting model using the ARIMA approach, based on which it would be possible to reasonably forecast the number of tourist arrivals in IGaCoS. Quantitative secondary data were analyzed by employing the Box-Jenkins ARIMA. The time series plot was characterized by an apparent increasing trend combined with intermittent sinusoidal oscillations. The time series revealed a steady, gradual increase up until 2020. Next, a sharp decline was observed midway through 2020, indicative of the ill effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. A gradual increase was noted once more, starting in 2021, with some fluctuations. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test revealed that the time series was non-stationary at level— but was made stationary after differenced twice. The ARIMA (1,2,1) model was found to be statistically significant. The fitted model initially showed some notable deviations from the original data, but, with time, converged closely to the actual values, proving it is a reliable way to represent underlying patterns. The ARIMA (1,2,1) model, selected for having the lowest AIC and BIC values and a MAPE within the acceptable range for reasonable forecasting, was used to predict tourist arrivals in IGaCoS over the next six months. The forecasted values suggested a mix of fluctuations and stability. There was a noticeable upward trajectory at the beginning, which was followed by a slight decline at the end that yet remained stable. The forecasted results from the ARIMA (1,2,1) model may provide businesses with a roadmap for comprehensive planning in terms of operational and strategic concerns. This study helped address Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) No. 8, Decent Work and Economic Growth.</p><p><strong>JEL:</strong> L83, R11, C53</p><p> </p><p><strong> Article visualizations:</strong></p><p><img src="/-counters-/soc/0776/a.php" alt="Hit counter" /></p>