TREND ANALYSIS AND CORRELATION OF TOURIST, RESTAURANT AND HOTEL VISITS IN KUNINGAN REGENCY

Abstract

This study conducts an in-depth analysis of the tourism sector in Kuningan Regency, focusing specifically on hotel stays, tourist arrivals, and restaurant visits. Utilizing forecasting models and correlation analyses, the research aims to uncover trends and interdependencies within the sector. The primary objective is to identify actionable insights that can inform data-driven decision-making. The study employs the FBProphet algorithm for forecasting future trends and conducts Kendall correlation analysis to examine relationships among key variables. Data collected spans a time series of 84 months, from January 2016 to December 2022. FBProphet accurately predicts trends in hotel stays, while variations exist in predictions for tourist arrivals and restaurant visits. Mean values for hotel stays, tourist arrivals, and restaurant visits are 21,098.67, 135,647.33, and 130,660.83, respectively. Kendall correlation analysis reveals a moderate positive correlation (0.214, p-value = 0.004) between tourist arrivals and restaurant visits, a strong positive correlation (0.324, p-value = 1.291e-05) between tourist arrivals and hotel stays, and a weaker positive correlation (0.176, p-value = 0.019) between restaurant visits and hotel stays. These findings underscore the intricate dynamics of Kuningan Regency's tourism sector, providing stakeholders with critical insights for strategic planning. The research contributes significantly to sustainable growth initiatives by guiding stakeholders in leveraging the interconnected elements of tourism and making well-informed decisions.