Tourism Scenario Research Articles

Global Tourism. New Volatility, Old Statistics

In 2015 the scenario of global tourism has radically changed. The new scenario has shifted from the approach of the foregoing “closed-circuit” international tourism flows and the creation of different development centres of the tourism economy in the world taking over the global business that was previously in the hands of Europe and North America. The globalisation of tourism is unavoidable and, in many respects, positive. The creation of new tourist destinations and new countries generating outgoing tourism in different continents and areas worldwide determined, in those places, the growth of operators and the creation of tourist value-added chains that have gradually increased their strength and expansion. Therefore, in a global market of international tourism flows, routes followed by tourist expense and value added generated by such expense can differ considerably from the route that is physically followed by the tourism flow itself.

Impacts of Rural Tourism Project: A Case of Naggar Village, Himachal Pradesh

Majority, about 70%, of India's population lives in the countryside. It suffers from many economic and social problems such as poor infrastructure, ignorance, unemployment, poverty, unprivileged women and so on. Tourism, if planned well, is theoretically understood of being prowess to addressing such issues. This article aims to assess the present scenario of tourism at Naggar village, Himachal Pradesh. Findings reveal that local residents and business- owners have positive attitude towards tourism and there is no negative impact perceived hitherto.

Indian Tourism: A Conceptual Review

To explore the literature in tourism, researcher has examined reputed journals and secondary sources and reviewed 59 research articles and 9 marketing research reports of Government of India Ministry of Tourism and annual reports. Efforts made to synthesized review to present in a paper. It noticed that Indian tourism research worked out on various areas like village tourism. eco-tourism, sea tourism, medical tourism. and cruise tourism, with its potential as well as threats and challenges. Some of the study has been carried out on popular tourist destinations viz, Lakshadweep, Kerala, Goa, Uttaranchal, Bangalore and various parts of North and North East India and Panchgani bill station of Satara district. The results of study provide the scope for further research viz. to determine the gap in between planning and implementation of tourism efforts. investigating relation between infrastructure development with tourism development, to find out the relation between promotion and tourist arrival etc. Analysis the effectiveness of marketing strategy for tbe growth of tourism industry. to study effective financial management for the growth of tourism, to analyze the effect of projection on significant stakeholders and vice versa, including government; non-government commercial, local population, lobbyists etc. to study effective tourism policy to make prosper exclusively local community. To understand the effectiveness of tourism products like forts, hills, dams, windmills, flora, Jake, bird sanctuary, Koyna wild life Sanctuary etc. to attract large tourist arrival. To explore new destinations to attract both domestic tourists and worldwide. To check the effectiveness of medical therapy to attract large tourist flow, to check role of government in promotion of medical tourism. However, there are various issues plaguing the industry. One of them is the lack of professional marketing and co-ordination amongst nodal ministries adversely affects tourism development. In addition, extent of Political influence in tourism development. Factors viz. physical, socio-cultural factors responsible for the growth of tourism. Also the extent tourism workout for the employment potential in the state/district. Many studies have although taken macro view of tourism scenario. Researcher found number of sub themes, which need attention on the magnitude of tourism development, Not a single study probe into the depth of psychographic data of tourists and other stakeholders. Definitely, this paper gives scope to numerous studies that can be probe at micro level. However.for any micro study there has to be back up of generous macro study as well. This review is a generous effort towards it.

What could the next 40 years hold for global tourism?

Over the past 40 years, tourism has developed to become a sector of global economic, social and environmental significance. This paper provides a retrospective overview of the massive expansion and evolving geography of international and domestic tourism over the last 40 years, including the factors that enabled and challenged this growth, in order to contextualize a discussion of what the next 40 years may hold for global tourism. Social, technical, economic, environmental and political dimensions influencing tourism over the past and future 40 years are identified, together with a synthesis of available long-range scenarios of tourism futures to 2050. Comparisons with selected non-tourism scenarios suggest that current assessments of tourism futures are limited in scope, and that the tourism sector may have much to learn from scenario building and forecasting from other economic sectors and analyses of global grand challenges. Reconciling anticipated tourism growth with the sustainability and development imperatives of the next 40 years are discussed.

Análise da satisfação dos serviços turísticos na percepção do turista estrangeiro: o caso do município de bonito, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brasil

The insertion of the municipality of Bonito - MS in the international tourism scenario confronts the reality of service provision and its tourism infrastructure with the opinion and degree of satisfaction of its foreign visitors. Faced with this situation, this study sought to understand and relate the opinion of these visitors with the points in which services and infrastructure stand out, as well as the fields in which they need attention. Of a quantitative nature, this study used statistical methods (descriptive, inferential and multivariate) in the treatment of data, which are fundamental to obtain distributions, interval estimates, as well as correlation and similarity measures of the variables studied, avoiding the interference of other variables involved in the study. With the obtained results, it was possible to establish comparison and correlation between the variables, providing important information about this demand of visitors in this location.

China's Pollution Debacle and Destabilization of Inbound International Tourism: A Critique

China holds an impressive position as the world's third biggest country in terms of international tourist arrivals. In fact, the Chinese government is proactively promoting the tourism industry as an important source of national economic development. However, massive air pollution in tourist hotspots such as Beijing was an important factor impeding tourists' inflow in the year 2013. In fact, the beginning of the year 2014 was no better for Northern China when the WHO described China's smog as a “health crisis.” Though the Chinese government has undertaken numerous pollution-curbing measures, myriad challenges hinder this exercise. Against this backdrop, this article provides a critique of the impact of pollution on China's inbound international tourism scenario. It concludes that tapping tourism potential requires a healthy environment and an effective communication of environmental improvement as essential elements of a robust, farsighted tourism plan.

Predicting tourism market potential of Chile by use of a qualitative forecasting technique

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to project the future tourism market potential of Chile by use of the Delphi qualitative forecasting technique. Design/methodology/approach – The Delphi forecasting technique as a market research tool is used to predict future tourism and hospitality scenarios for Chile from 2007 through the year of 2027. Although tourism demand projections predict positive trends in the short-term, in the medium and long-term tourism demand is subjected to a host of fast-changing volatile uncontrollable factors which make long-term projections difficult. Findings – The study's findings indicate that Chilean tourism experts forecast progressively more changes and higher impact as one moves from values, structures and events. The managerial implication of this for industry operators and public policymakers is that increased tourism activities may prove more beneficial if focused on changing hospitality and tourism industry structures and events rather than changing the value systems o...

Здобутки та втрати туристичного бізнесу після завершення фіналу чемпіонату Європи з футболу 2012 року

We consider gains and losses, as well as scenarios of tourism in Lviv region after the finals of the European Football Championship in 2012 carried out checks on the reliability and profits projected scenarios Lviv region on the European Championship finals. The suggestions for further support tourism image of the region to strengthen its inbound tourism potential. Keywords: football championships, tourism market, tourism industry, tourism management flows.

Changing scenario in domestic tourism in northeast india: with special reference to assam

To discuss the changing scenario of the domestic tourism in India’s Northeast region, particularly Assam, this research note discovers the growing interest among the domestic tourist from and to Northeast India through the observation and opinion of the tour operators in this region. The study explores the socio-cultural transformation of the attitude of domestic tourists of and towards this region through the reflective discussion that shows the approximate number of domestic tourists from and to Northeast India, destinations frequently chosen by the people and the socio-economic background of the tourists.

Designing fuzzy expert system for creating and ranking of tourism scenarios using fuzzy AHP method

Article history: Received 25 June 2010 Received in revised form 14 October 2010 Accepted 14 October 2010 Available online 14 October 2010 One of the most important activities of tour and travel agencies is to select the appropriate tour configuration. There are normally two primary objectives of season and time period to set a group of cities called designing tour scenarios. The success of tour scenarios is deeply related to the experiments and wisdom of the experts and planners in travel agencies. This paper presents a fuzzy rule decision making to find the suitable set of cities where different possible criteria are ranked using analytical hierarchy procedure. The proposed model of this paper is applied for a real-world case study of Iranian tour agency and the results are analyzed under different circumstances. © 2010 Growing Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Selected Papers from workshops ACSys2009 and IDC'2009

Dear SCPE Reader, The recent development of applications that exploit multiple information sources, distributed resource processing, user mobility, interaction and information sharing calls for novel models of coordination, data acquisition, transfer and integration, efficient access and processing of information. The articles presented in this issue propose some intelligent distributed models and algorithms that try to cope with the large quantity of information available to users in different application contexts, and draw from different computation paradigms such as multi-agent technology, biologically inspired computation, peer-to-peer systems, mobile ad hoc network, grid computing. The articles in this issue of SCPE are extended versions of selected papers presented at the workshops ACSys2009 and IDC’2009. ACSys2009, the 6 th Workshop on Agents for Complex Systems was held in Romania, TimiAŸoara, September, 26–29, 2009. The workshop was organized in the frame of the 11th International Symposium on Symbolic and Numeric Algorithms for Scientific Computing (SYNASC 2009). The aim of the ACSys2009 workshop was to bring together researchers and developers from academia and industry in order to discuss current scientific and technical results on using agent technology for solving complex, distributed real-world problems ( http://synasc09.info.uvt.ro/workshops/ACSys/ ). The article Algorithmic Solutions for Several Offline Constrained Resource Processing and Data Transfer Multicriteria Optimization Problems by Mugurel IonuA£ Andreica and Nicolae A¢AƒpuAŸ presents novel algorithmic solutions for several resource processing and data transfer multicriteria optimization problems. The results of most of the presented techniques are strategies which solve the considered problems (almost) optimally. The article Sensors Data—Stream Processing Middleware Based on Multi-Agent Model by Ovidiu Aritoni and Viorel Negru proposes a multi-agent architecture for an intelligent sensor data processing middleware that allows acquisition, interpretation and aggregation of sensor data-streams. A healthcare system is used for validating the architecture. The article Context-Aware Emergent Behaviour in a MAS for Information Exchange by Andrei Olaru, Cristian Gratie and Adina Magda Florea presents, based on authors’ previous work on self-organizing multi-agent systems for information exchange, two aspects of context-awareness—pressure and interest—that make the system's emergent behavior context-sensitive and, therefore, more adaptive to a changing environment. IDC’2009, the 3 rd International Symposium on Intelligent Distributed Computing, was held in Cyprus, Ayia Napa, October 13–14, 2009. The aim of this symposium was to bring together researchers involved in intelligent distributed computing to allow cross-fertilization and synergy of ideas and to enable advancement of researches in the field ( http://www.idc2009.cs.ucy.ac.cy/ ). The article Efficient Broadcasting in MANETs by Selective Forwarding by Doina Bein, Ajoy K. Datta, and Balaji Ashok Sathyanarayanan presents a new protocol called Efficient Broadcasting by Selective Forwarding that minimizes the number of transmissions or retransmissions needed for broadcasting in mobile ad hoc networks. The article Group-Based Interactions for Multiuser Applications by Carmen Morgado, Jose C. Cunha, Nuno Correia, and Jorge Custodio presents a group-based model for the development of interactive applications where multiple users dynamically interact with each other, and which facilitates the organization, access and sharing of content by multiple users. It also describes examples to support communities in tourism and school campus scenarios. The article Exploring Carrier Agents in Swarm-Array Computing by Blesson Varghese and Gerard Mckee proposes a swarm-array computing approach to bridge the gap between autonomic and parallel computing. The feasibility of this proposal is validated by two simulation studies: using a multi-agent simulator on a Field-Programmable Gate Array, and using Message Passing Interface on a computer cluster. Great thanks are first given to SCPE and its Editor-in-Chief Dana Petcu who kindly offered the publication of this special issue. We would also like to thank George A. Papadopoulos, who helped with co-organizing IDC'2009. Viorel Negru, Adina Magda Florea, Costin BAƒdicAƒ

Tourism in protected areas can threaten wild populations: from individual response to population viability of the chough Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax

Summary Many protected areas are now faced with increasing pressure from visitors and tourism development. There is thus an urgent need for conservation biologists to evaluate the full impact of human disturbance not only on individual responses, but also on the viability of protected populations, so that relevant management measures can be proposed. We studied the impact of tourism on the rare and endangered chough Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax on a protected French island to assess the relationship between visitor pressure, bird individual behaviour and fitness, and population viability. During 8 years, we monitored foraging behaviour and estimated monthly juvenile survival using mark–recapture data. Population viability was examined under different tourism scenarios, using a stochastic individual‐based model that incorporated the impact of visitor numbers on juvenile survival. In summer, the foraging probability of choughs was negatively correlated with the number of visitors. As a result, the time allocated to foraging during peak tourist season, adjusted to day length and prey availability, was 50% lower than expected. Juvenile survival rates were lowest in August, the peak tourist season, and varied significantly across years. August survival rate and therefore annual survival were negatively correlated with the number of visitors on the island in August and, except for a minor negative effect of rainfall, were not influenced by other environmental variables. Stochastic simulations predicted a low probability of extinction of the protected population if the number of visitors remains constant in the future. However, short‐term viability would be dramatically reduced if the current rate of increase in visitor numbers is maintained. Synthesis and applications. We show that a relatively minor human‐induced disturbance (e.g. scaring individuals away) has dramatic effects on population viability in a protected area, even when breeding individuals are not directly affected. This suggests that the full impact of tourism in protected areas may be overlooked, and has direct consequences for the assessment of sustainable levels of human disturbance and the design of quantitative management options compatible with tourist activities in protected areas. We specifically emphasize the need for more integrative approaches combining research at individual and population levels.

An assessment of the impact of tourism development at Varanasi: perspectives of local tourism businesses

The present study attempts to assess how far tourism development in a host region results in both positive as well as negative impacts. A series of paired t-tests are carried out between the expectation of the tourism business community on tourism impacts and their experience with the same, which reveal that their expectation is remaining unfulfilled on all eight positive impacts. Results of t-tests pertaining to eight negative impacts further indicate that the experience of the community with two negative impacts is significantly poor compared to their apprehensions. The study findings pertaining to step-wise multiple regression analysis have revealed that four tourism impacts are most influential in shaping the future scenario of tourism at Varanasi.

Developing A Model for Supporting Quality in Restaurant Websites

Despite the significant growth of electronic commerce in the tourism and hospitality industries and an early enthusiasm for Websites, restaurant owners are slow to appreciate the power of the Web. Research into the use of Websites by restaurants remains limited and there is a perception that any Website is better than none. An effective method to assess the quality of a Website is required if restaurants are to be encouraged to develop successful sites that contribute to greater realization of benefits and add value to the restaurant. A Website evaluation instrument is designed that is flexible enough to serve as an adoptable evaluation basis for a variety of industry players. The instrument is developed from quality dimensions derived from an existing IS ecommerce success model. It is pilot tested using restaurant Websites in a tourism scenario and shows that it can support hospitality and tourism players in the identification of Website quality.

Measurement of Tourism Market Potential of Croatia by Use of Delphi Qualitative Research Technique

The Delphi survey as an effective qualitative marketing research tool was designed to project the future Croatian tourism scenario from 2001 through the year 2020. It is predicted that Croatian tourism industry will grow and prosper substantially over the next decade due to increased tourist demand for non-traditional holiday destinations. There will also be a high demand for activity-based tourism and eco-tourism. Although the tourism demand projections predict positive trends in the coming term, it is subject to a host of uncontrollable factors which make long-term projections difficult and cumbersome. In view of the developments and changes, tourism industry operators and public sector planners need scientifically accepted projection bases for tourism investment and effective operational tourism decisions. In this vein, this research qualitatively forecasts the tourism market potential and identifies the most significant future trends in Croatian tourism and hospitality.

Planning in virtual enterprises

The MOVE-project aims at a general methodology and a reusable software framework to support the coordination and cooperation in virtual enterprises and to optimise individual business processes and required resources. This paper examines the requirements for computer supported planning in virtual enterprises with a focus on optimisation of the partly contradictionary objectives satisfying customer and supplier interests. We present a first solution and its experimental evaluation. The concepts are demonstrated in a tourism scenario.

Designing Self-Reply Questionnaires to Survey Tourists: Issues and Guidelines for Researchers

ABSTRACT The use of self-reply questionnaires as a data collection instrument is common in tourism research. However, while there is a long tradition of use of these instruments in social science research, there has been little discussion of the particular needs and challenges created by tourism situations. This paper blends both theory, practical and experience to suggest a range of issues and guidelines which researchers may find useful in preparing a self-reply questionnaire. A number of technical issues associated with surveys are also addressed. A number of principles and examples of good practice from the literature on survey methods and survey design together with the problems of using this positivist mode of data collection in tourism scenarios are developed.

Community tourism development scenarios and their use in tourism research

Scenarios have been utilised to a limited degree in tourism and in a number of areas such as in development, sustainability studies, and political decision making. The use of scenarios has primarily concentrated on evaluating people's attitudes and decision processes, as predictions toward perceived future situations for tourism planning, and as a tool in exploratory research. In a recent study conducted in Eastern Australian coastal regions, a set of community tourism scenarios was developed in order to gauge the types of communities with tourism development, and thus explore in more depth the ideologies and platforms which may have influence on decision making in local government. The use of a community tourism scenario, such as developed in this study may have strong implications in broadening the way tourism and community researchers distinguish community attitudes toward present and future tourism development opportunities as well as their corresponding pressures. In addition, it may provide a positive tool for understanding perceived community directions as well as providing a mechanism for gauging planning decisions in a tourism context.

Role of Women in Tourism

Tourism, similar to many other sectors, involves the service of women in many ways. This involvement comprises of both positive as well as negative aspects, some are pampering the womanhood, by which women can live in the society with pride whereas many others raise serious issues and concerns. A range of issues is inherent in the tourism sector; which are relatively less discussed in the international tourism scenario and by the developers as a whole. This paper makes an attempt to discuss the role of women in tourism critically, as an employer and employee.