Threat Assessment Research Articles

Bibliometric analysis of studies on threat assessment and prioritization of species for conservation

The present study investigated the evolution and current situation of research on threat assessment and prioritization of species for conservation at a global level by analyzing bibliometrically the most relevant and productive authors, sources, and countries, most cited papers, country collaborations and most frequent keywords as reflected in the scientific literature using the Web of Science database. From 1989–2022, a total of 315 relevant documents were retrieved from 129 sources. Results revealed that since 1989, there has been an increase in the number of publications on threat assessment and prioritization of species for conservation. A total of 1,300 authors have contributed to the field through their research contributions. Among the 129 sources, the journals ‘Biodiversity and Conservation’ and ‘Biological Conservation’ are the most relevant and productive. Among countries, the USA has produced the highest number of publications, whereas Benin has the highest Multiple Country Production with a rate of 71.4%. Among the authors, ‘Keith DA’ has received the most citations, and among the sources, the journal ‘Biological Conservation’ received the highest number of citations. Conservation, biodiversity, conservation priorities, species richness, and threatened species are the most frequently used keywords and follow power-law distribution. The present study will be useful to the researchers in determining which journals to target and how to identify potential research partners in the concerned field. It is recommended that institutions in developed countries be encouraged to lead research programs in developing and underdeveloped countries so that such studies will be carried out at local, regional, and global scale, as biodiversity loss is a global issue.

Cell-lysis sensing drives biofilm formation in Vibrio cholerae

Matrix-encapsulated communities of bacteria, called biofilms, are ubiquitous in the environment and are notoriously difficult to eliminate in clinical and industrial settings. Biofilm formation likely evolved as a mechanism to protect resident cells from environmental challenges, yet how bacteria undergo threat assessment to inform biofilm development remains unclear. Here we find that population-level cell lysis events induce the formation of biofilms by surviving Vibrio cholerae cells. Survivors detect threats by sensing a cellular component released through cell lysis, which we identify as norspermidine. Lysis sensing occurs via the MbaA receptor with genus-level specificity, and responsive biofilm cells are shielded from phage infection and attacks from other bacteria. Thus, our work uncovers a connection between bacterial lysis and biofilm formation that may be broadly conserved among microorganisms.

Identifying Strategies for Effective Biodiversity Preservation and Species Status of Chilean Amphibians.

Resources are limited in global biodiversity conservation efforts, which emphasizes the significance of setting conservation priorities. Using standardized criteria, we evaluated 58 amphibian species in Chile to determine their conservation priority (CP). Species with insufficient historical data had their values marked as missing. With a median value of p = 1.67, the results demonstrated CP values ranging from p = 0.48 to p = 3.0, classifying species into priority and non-priority groups. Four levels were established for the priority categories: no priority, low priority, medium priority, and high priority. Additionally, the Telmatobiidae and Alsodidae families were identified as two more priority families. Notably, the species with the highest priority were found to be T. halli, T. fronteriensis, T. philippii, T. chusmisensis, A. pehuenche, and Alsodes tumultuosus, where T. philippii and T. fronteriensis have equal priority for conservation at the national level according to the conservation priority analysis. Eight priority families-the Alsodidae, Batrachylidae, Bufonidae, Ceratophryidae, Leptodactylidae, Rhinodermatidae, and Telmatobiidae-were determined, and 14 species-or 24% of the species examined-need further study. Based on the conservation priority analysis, the species T. fronteriensis and T. philippii share the highest priority for conservation at the national level (p = 2.50). With 70% of the amphibians under study being threatened mainly by habitat loss, pollution, and emerging diseases, the creation of conservation categories made the threat assessment process easier. Due to a lack of information on geographic distribution and abundance, quantitatively classifying amphibians in Chile remains difficult. The analysis of conservation priorities and potential extinction threats informs appropriate management strategies.

Analytical Capabilities of Statistical Methodology for Assessing Threats to Economic Security

Subject. Reduction of threats to economic security based on the construction of multifactorial statistical models that quantify the impact of factors on the level of economic crime, in particular, on the scale of material damage from economic crime. Purposes. Adaptation and application of statistical methodology for complex quantitative assessment of threats to economic security, multifactor modeling of patterns and trends of economic crime. Methods. Applied methods of multidimensional classification - cluster analysis, correlation and regression, trend models and forecasting. Results. Statistical modeling was carried out in the context of clusters formed during the study, reflecting the specification of their regions based on the application of statistical methodology for the typologization of the regions of the Russian Federation and the construction of multifactorial statistical models that quantitatively describe the impact of factors on the level of economic crime (the scale of material damage from economic crime). Conclusions. The results of the conducted research can be used in information and analytical work and activities of departments of internal affairs bodies, public administration bodies to develop directions for reducing economic security risks from criminalization factors. The obtained substantiation of the significance of the factors provides the basis for their inclusion in the dynamic regression model, according to which it is advisable to create short-term forecasts of the crime level of an economic orientation.

Preventing school violence: A review of school threat assessment models.

Preventing school violence: A review of school threat assessment models.

Preventing school violence: A survey of school threat assessment practices, perceived impact, and challenges.

Preventing school violence: A survey of school threat assessment practices, perceived impact, and challenges.

Generic and Cost effective framework for Space Threat Assessment for Emerging Space Economies

Modern-day satellites can be considered mini-computers orbiting the earth, with their own operating systems, customized software, navigation and processing units, in-built memory, and other optical and communication capabilities. Gone are the days when satellites were huge in size, with systems and sub-systems taking several months to a few years to be manufactured, assembled, tested, and launched depending on the mission. A wide variety of technological developments in the past decades, including miniaturization of systems and subsystems, availability of space-qualified and commercially-off-the-shelf (COTS) components, and the advent of application-specific integrated chips (ASICs) have paved the way for an increase in quantity and quality of space-based systems, thereby enabling a wide variety of missions even for emerging space economies. With the growing number and complexity of satellites, there have been multiple recorded instances of attacks that have happened on space and ground-based systems over the last three decades. For example, in 1986, the Galaxy I satellite uplink was disrupted by a suspicious person from Florida under the pseudonym "Captain Midnight". In 1997, computers belonging to the X-ray astrophysics section of the Goddard Space Flight Center campus were compromised. In 1998, the ROSAT X-RAY satellite co-owned by the United States and Germany was hacked. One of the satellites from the military communication system Skynet - owned and operated by the UK's Royal Air Force was hacked. As we enter the space age, it is important to note that many countries, including underdeveloped nations, utilize satellites for various earth-based and space-based applications, military recon missions, interplanetary missions, and all other types of space exploration. Given the extent of utilization, it is crucial to tackle the threats facing space-based and ground-based systems. Some developed and space-faring nations like the USA, Russia, China, the UK, etc., have counter-space capabilities at present to tackle a wide variety of threats. On the other hand, countries like India, Iran, Australia, New Zealand, and UAE, which are still new or emerging players in the new space industry, are still developing their systems to be robust enough to tackle space-based and ground-based threats. At the farther end are countries like Mongolia, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Cambodia, Norway, etc., which are still developing their space capabilities. In this concise abstract, we present an overview of the myriad security threats encountered by both space-based and ground-based systems. Additionally, we introduce a generic and cost-effective threat assessment framework designed to evaluate these threats across diverse scenarios. This mission-agnostic framework, along with its brief methodology, serves as a foundational tool for identifying security vulnerabilities and formulating comprehensive risk mitigation strategies tailored to specific missions. In the subsequent full-length article, we delve deeper into the complexities of space security, exploring real-world examples, emerging challenges, and innovative solutions.

Border Defence Mechanism Using Deep Learning Technique

In response to escalating concerns regarding potential border airstrikes, this paper introduces an advanced deep-learning model that utilizes Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for accurate military aircraft classification. Functioning as a pivotal tool for proactive threat assessment, the system works by distinguishing and categorizing six aircraft types with exceptional accuracy, facilitating real-time analysis, and aiding with the development of responsive counter-attack strategies. The multi-stage process begins with the comprehensive collection of diverse datasets, followed by the extraction of spatial features from images using CNNs. Optimization techniques fine-tune model parameters to ensure optimal performance. This approach significantly strengthens national security by leveraging advanced technology for proactive threat mitigation. Emphasizing this paper’s vital role in enhancing border defence capabilities, it highlights the model’s capacity to navigate evolving security challenges through improved awareness of the environment. The model's ability to adapt to real-world conditions, including variations in lighting, weather, and terrain, demonstrates its practical applicability. For seamless implementation, the deep learning model is deployed using Django and SQLite as a web page providing an efficient and user-friendly interface This sophisticated deep learning model is fundamental in fortifying national security measures against potential threats along border regions.

A comprehensive approach to strategic planning for marine aquaculture in Egypt: SWOT-AHP analysis

Egypt, a leading producer of aquaculture in the Mediterranean, faces challenges in developing its marine aquaculture sector. To address these issues, this study utilized the SWOT-AHP methodology for a quantitative assessment of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Interviews were conducted with 26 experts, including marine fish farmers, academics, and officials. The results revealed Egypt's global leadership as the largest producer of meagre and the third-largest producer of marine species such as seabass and seabream. This success can be attributed to strengths such as competitive pricing for meagre, extended marine aquaculture sites, suitable weather conditions, and moderate winters not available to competitors, contributing to the production of high-quality marine fish with a large market size. This provides a significant marketing opportunity when focusing on this high-priced large-size category. However, experts' concerns about the development of marine aquaculture lead them to believe that weaknesses and threats outweigh strengths and opportunities. These concerns include reliance on limited and costly trash fish, a decrease in demand for aquafeed due to rising prices, poor water quality, and a dependency on wild seeds. Pollution and climate change are also major concerns. In summary, the implementation of the SWOT-AHP approach ensures the development of an effective strategic plan for marine aquaculture in Egypt. This approach contributes to maximizing opportunities and addressing challenges that may hinder the sector's future growth. Collaborative execution among stakeholders (farmers, academics, and officials) is expected to facilitate a transition to sustainable practices, promoting innovation, and continuous improvement of the strategy.

A New Multi-Target Three-Way Threat Assessment Method with Heterogeneous Information and Attribute Relevance

Target threat assessment provides support for combat decision making. The multi-target threat assessment method based on a three-way decision can obtain threat classification while receiving threat ranking, thus avoiding the limitation of traditional two-way decisions. However, the heterogeneous situation information, attribute relevance, and adaptive information processing needs in complex battlefield environment bring challenges to existing methods. Therefore, this paper proposes a new multi-target three-way threat assessment method with heterogeneous information and attribute relevance. Firstly, dynamic assessment information is represented by heterogeneous information, and attribute weights are calculated by heterogeneous Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC). Then, the conditional probability is calculated by the heterogeneous weighted Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and the adaptive risk avoidance coefficients are constructed by calculating the uncertainty of the assessment value, and then the relative loss function matrices are constructed. Finally, the comprehensive loss function matrices are obtained by the weighted Heronian mean (HM) operator, and the comprehensive thresholds are calculated to obtain the three-way rules. The case study shows that compared with the existing methods, the proposed method can effectively handle the heterogeneous information and attribute relevance, and obtain the risk avoidance coefficients without presetting or field subjective settings, which is more suitable for the complex mission environment.

Towards a practical threat assessment methodology for crop landraces.

Crop landraces (LR), the traditional varieties of crops that have been maintained for millennia by repeated cycles of planting, harvesting, and selection, are genetically diverse compared to more modern varieties and provide one of the key components for crop improvement due to the ease of trait transfer within the crop species. However, LR diversity is increasingly threatened with genetic erosion and extinction by replacement with improved cultivars, lack of incentives for farmers to maintain traditional agricultural systems, and rising threats from climate change. Their active conservation is necessary to maintain this critical resource. However, as there are hundreds of thousands of LR and millions of LR populations for crops globally, active conservation is complex and resource-intensive. To assist in implementation, it is useful to be able to prioritise LR for conservation action and an obvious means of prioritisation is based on relative threat assessment. There have been several attempts to propose LR threat assessment methods, but none thus far has been widely accepted or applied. The aim of this paper is to present a novel, practical, standardised, and objective methodology for LR threat assessment derived from the widely applied IUCN Red Listing for wild species, involving the collation of time series information for LR population range, LR population trend, market, and farmer characteristics and LR context information. The collated information is compared to a set of threat criteria and an appropriate threat category is assigned to the LR when a threshold level is reached. The proposed methodology can be applied at national, regional, or global levels and any crop group.

Eliciting expert judgements to underpin our understanding of faecal indicator organism loss from septic tank systems

Septic tank systems (STS) in rural catchments represent a potential source of microbial pollution to watercourses; however, data concerning the risk of faecal indicator organism (FIO) export from STS to surface waters are scarce. In the absence of empirical data, elicitation of expert judgements can provide an alternative approach to aid understanding of FIO pollution risk from STS. Our study employed a structured elicitation process using the Sheffield Elicitation Framework to obtain expert judgements on the proportion of FIOs likely to be delivered from STS to watercourses, based on 36 scenarios combining: (i) septic tank effluent movement risk, driven by soil hydro-morphological characteristics; (ii) distance of septic tank to watercourse; and (iii) degree of slope. Experts used the tertile method to elicit a range of values representing their beliefs of the proportion of FIOs likely to be delivered to a watercourse for each scenario. The experts judged that 93 % of FIOs would likely be delivered from an STS to a watercourse under the highest risk scenario that combined (i) very high STS effluent movement risk, (ii) STS distance to watercourse <10 m, and (iii) a location on a steep slope with gradient >25 %. Under the lowest risk scenario, the proportion of FIOs reaching a watercourse would likely reduce to 5 %. Expert confidence was high for scenarios that represented extremes of risk, while uncertainty increased for scenarios depicting intermediate risk conditions. The behavioural aggregation process employed to obtain a consensus among the experts proved to be useful for highlighting both areas of strong consensus and high uncertainty. The latter therefore represent priorities for future empirical research to further improve our understanding of potential pollution risk from septic tanks and in turn enable better assessments of potential threats to water quality in rural catchments throughout the world where decentralised wastewater systems are common.

Cloud leakage in higher education in South Africa: A case of University of Technology

Background: Users with knowledge of an organisation can pose risks to Cloud Computing, including current and past employees and external stakeholders with access to the organisation’s cloud. These insiders may engage in intentional or unintentional disruptive behaviors, causing significant harm to the organisation. A study focused on insider threats in South African higher education examined the tactics used by cybersecurity leaders to enforce cybersecurity policies.Objectives: The goal of this study was to develop a comprehensive insider mitigation framework for cloud leakage in a South African University.Method: The study employed qualitative methodologies and a case study approach. Open-ended interviews were conducted to collect data from the participants. The collected data was coded and analysed using ATLAS.ti 22.Results: The study’s findings revealed that some of the major sources of cloud leakage are a lack of effective training, ineffective information security (IS) policy regulation, and the implementation of information security awareness workshops that provided advice on how information security should be managed in the university.Conclusion: Insider threats pose a serious risk to organisations. To mitigate this threat, it is crucial for organisations to establish strong security policies and closely monitor employee activities. By conducting a thorough assessment of insider threats, organisations can enhance their understanding of this dynamic threat and strengthen their defenses.Contribution: Although every employee is ultimately responsible for an organisation’s security, the most effective IS programmes demonstrate strong top-level leadership by setting a ‘tone at the top’ and promoting the benefits of IS through careful policy and guidance.

A novel threat assessment method for maritime defense integrating improved IT2FBWM, prospect theory and VIKOR under hybrid fuzzy environment

The weaponized unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) swarms have posed a significant threat to maritime civilian and military installations. For effective defense deployment, threat assessment has become a critical part of maritime defense decision-making. However, due to the uncertainty of threat information and the ignorance of decision-makers’ psychological behaviors, there are great challenges in obtaining a reliable and accurate threat assessment result to assist in maritime defense decision-making. To this end, this paper proposes an integrated threat assessment method for maritime defense against UAV swarms based on improved interval type-2 fuzzy best-worst method (IT2FBWM), prospect theory and VIKOR (VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje, in Serbian). Firstly, the improved IT2FBWM is designed by introducing interval type-2 fuzzy set (IT2FS) and entropy-based information to obtain attribute weights with high reliability. Then, the hybrid fuzzy scheme covering IT2FS and interval number is constructed to express the uncertainty of different types of threat information. Next, VIKOR is extended to hybrid fuzzy environment and combined with prospect theory to consider the influence of psychological behaviors of decision-makers. Finally, the improved IT2FBWM and extended VIKOR are integrated to determine the threat ranking of targets and the priority defense targets. A case study of maritime threat assessment is provided to illustrate the performance of the proposed method. Moreover, sensitivity and comparative experiments were conducted, and the results indicate that the proposed method not only obtain the reliable threat assessment result but also outperforms the other methods in terms of attribute weight determination, decision preference consideration and decision mechanism.

The Internet is a scary place: How does evidence source and examinee race or ethnicity influence determinations of threat?

Violent rhetoric online is becoming increasingly relevant to the practice of forensic mental health assessment as examinee's virtual lives may transform into real-world acts of violence. With the rise of a diverse subculture of violent online communities, the aim of the present study was to inform how concerns with online sources of collateral data and racial/ethnic biases may influence determinations of violence potential. Using an experimental design, jury-eligible participants (N=278) and forensic mental health experts (N=78) were presented with mock Twitter (now referred to as X) posts that varied by data source (i.e., how information was accessed) and the examinee's race/ethnicity. Results showed no differences in participants' ratings of data credibility, how much weight they would place on the posts in a threat assessment, or how likely the examinee was to act violently against his intended target. Implications regarding the interpretation of social media evidence, relevant limitations, and future research are discussed.

Comparative Risk Assessment of Cyber Threats Based on Average and Fuzzy Set Theory

Applied results of scientific analysis should be the key focus of modern security research. A comparative analysis of research results obtained using different methods, as an applied task, forms a broader basis for interpreting the results and substantiating the conclusions. A social survey and expert opinion research were conducted to implement the general concept of strategic analysis of cybersecurity in Ukraine. Using the method based on determining the average value in a certain set of estimates, as well as the method based on the theory of fuzzy sets, the risks of spreading certain cyber threats in Ukraine were assessed. The results were compared. Although the use of different measurement methods led to some differences in quantitative risk indicators, the comparative analysis of the ratio of the level of different cyber threats did not change significantly. At the same time, the fuzzy set method provided more flexible interpretation of the results to characterize cyber threats in terms of their upward or downward trend. In general, the combined approach to cyber threat risk assessment can become an important risk management tool, as it takes advantage of different methods and allows for a deeper understanding of the current situation and the formation of more informed management decisions.

‘Our region is now a strategic theatre’: New Zealand’s balancing response to China

Drawing upon empirical evidence this article explains that, as the US-China Great Power Competition intensifies, New Zealand – a small state in the South Pacific – has shifted its view of Beijing from a potential security partner to a revisionist actor challenging the regional status quo and the international rules-based order that Wellington repeatedly declares is critical to its long-term security. China’s rise and assertive behaviour is placing structural pressure on New Zealand to react and altered its threat assessment of Beijing. This article reveals this by detailing New Zealand’s balancing strategy in the security domain vis-a-vis China from 2010. This includes an initial phase of pre-balancing through deepened ties with Washington, then transition to active balancing via acquisition of advanced aircraft, space co-operation, joint naval manoeuvres, and initiatives in the Pacific. A suite of new strategy documents released by the New Zealand government in August 2023 - and statements made by the new conservative National Party-led coalition government in 2024 - signals that balancing is set to continue and portends the rejuvenation of the NZ Defence Force (which has been neglected and under-resourced in recent times). New Zealand’s potential membership of Pillar 2 of the AUKUS security pact is considered, and how Wellington is presently managing its relationships with the US and China within a broader asymmetric hedging strategy. The article concludes that if China’s behaviour demonstrably changes, so too may Wellington’s assessment of the China threat and, therefore, Wellington’s response. It also outlines area where additional research could prove fruitful.

Theoretical foundations for the development of a methodological apparatus for assessing the dynamics of information security threats

Continuous improvement by information security violators of ways and means of implementing threats to information security leads to the need for adequate improvement of information security technologies. The potential of violators and increased requirements for the security of information activities lead to the actualization of the problem of identifying threats to information security in the dynamics of the process of their implementation. Analyzing the existing level of elaboration of the issues of completeness of the assessment of information security threats in the dynamics of their implementation processes in the field of information protection, it is possible to identify grounds that do not allow us to characterize the currently developed methodological assessment apparatus as ensuring its completeness. The purpose of this work is to substantiate the possibility of increasing the completeness of the assessment of information security threats based on recognition methods. Statements have been formulated and formally proved, which should be considered as theoretical grounds for the development of a methodological apparatus for assessing the dynamics of information security threats. Such statements include: a statement about the completeness of the assessment of information security threats in the dynamics of their implementation; a statement about the structuring of the space of information security threat signs to identify the dynamics of its implementation; a statement about the possibilities of assessing the volume of information subject to the destructive effects of information security threats based on the characteristics of the space of impact signs; a statement about the possibilities of assessing the level of information security threat, in the dynamics of its manifestation based on the characteristics of the space of its features. Тhe methodological approach considered in the article allows us to formally assess, with the help of appropriate recognition algorithms, all possible circumstances related to the implementation of information security threats, ensuring high completeness of recognition of such threats in the dynamics of their

From genomic threat assessment to conservation action

Genomic approaches have the potential to play a pivotal role in conservation, both to detect threats to species and populations and to restore biodiversity through actions. We here separate these approaches into two subdisciplines, vulnerability and restoration genomics, and discuss current applications, outstanding questions, and future potential.

Factors of sustainable economic growth in the context of risks and priorities of business development in the conditions of war.

The management of threats and risks of food security does not meet the needs of the sustainability of the development of the food system in the conditions of modern upheavals and stresses. The new geopolitical and economic conditions of the functioning of the sphere of food production and consumption require the formation of a new concept of economic security. Based on the assessment of modern threats and risks to the sustainable development of the food system, the authors developed a categorical apparatus and formed their own system of methodological principles for the study of the economic growth of the food system. The sustainable development of the agro-industrial complex is of particular importance for increasing competitiveness and ensuring the country's food security. In general, the sustainable development of the agro-industrial complex allows to create conditions for the transformation of companies' strategies in the field of ESG, to form stable supply chains, to create favorable conditions for the development of the connection between the city and agricultural territories, to satisfy the needs of the population and to improve the quality of life of the population. The research methodology, based on a systemic, complex, institutional approach, made it possible to determine the content of economic security as its ability to ensure the stability and competitiveness of all elements and the ability to resist external and internal threats, guaranteeing food security at the level determined by strategic national priorities. The purpose of the article is to define and substantiate the directions and priorities of sustainable growth and post-war development of the economy of Ukraine. Factors of sustainable development are proposed, taking into account external and internal risks and competitiveness priorities. The importance of finding innovative approaches to the management of subjects of economic relations in post-war conditions is proven. The problems and priorities of achieving sustainable functioning of the economy based on a closed cycle of production and achieving the goals of sustainable development are defined. Global political and economic changes lead to the fact that a company successful in the past pre-war conditions can become both an outsider and a leader of a new paradigm of sustainable economic systems. It is substantiated that the proposed methodological approach should be used as a basis for monitoring the economic security of the food system at the macro- and meso-level, as well as in the development of directions for improving the agro-food policy in new geopolitical and economic conditions. Keywords: economic security, growth, risks, food system, sustainable development, national interests, threats, ESG factors, innovation and investment activities