A novel threat assessment method for maritime defense integrating improved IT2FBWM, prospect theory and VIKOR under hybrid fuzzy environment

Abstract

The weaponized unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) swarms have posed a significant threat to maritime civilian and military installations. For effective defense deployment, threat assessment has become a critical part of maritime defense decision-making. However, due to the uncertainty of threat information and the ignorance of decision-makers’ psychological behaviors, there are great challenges in obtaining a reliable and accurate threat assessment result to assist in maritime defense decision-making. To this end, this paper proposes an integrated threat assessment method for maritime defense against UAV swarms based on improved interval type-2 fuzzy best-worst method (IT2FBWM), prospect theory and VIKOR (VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje, in Serbian). Firstly, the improved IT2FBWM is designed by introducing interval type-2 fuzzy set (IT2FS) and entropy-based information to obtain attribute weights with high reliability. Then, the hybrid fuzzy scheme covering IT2FS and interval number is constructed to express the uncertainty of different types of threat information. Next, VIKOR is extended to hybrid fuzzy environment and combined with prospect theory to consider the influence of psychological behaviors of decision-makers. Finally, the improved IT2FBWM and extended VIKOR are integrated to determine the threat ranking of targets and the priority defense targets. A case study of maritime threat assessment is provided to illustrate the performance of the proposed method. Moreover, sensitivity and comparative experiments were conducted, and the results indicate that the proposed method not only obtain the reliable threat assessment result but also outperforms the other methods in terms of attribute weight determination, decision preference consideration and decision mechanism.