Evolution Of Technological Systems Research Articles

Holding solar energy hostage? Evidences from the political economy of the solar photovoltaic innovation system in Iran

Transformation of the energy system by leveraging renewable sources, promoted by the national government and international organizations for reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs), is an issue of high political and policy importance in Iran, an oil-rich developing country. In this regard, this paper explores the evolution of solar photovoltaic (PV) diffusion from 1990 to 2021 in Iran. We explain the stages of technological innovation system (TIS) evolution by cumulative causation loops while narrating PV diffusion through a historical case study. By adopting a qualitative methodology, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 26 PV experts, selected through the snowball technique, to collect data. By content analysis of gathered data, we identify four distinct periods of PV diffusion. Our findings show that research institutes' ambitions derived the attention to PV development that was subsequently intensified by the entrepreneurial activities of pioneering firms. Government agencies supported firm-level R&D activities that eventually led to the emergence and expansion of PV service and manufacturing firms. We also elaborate the decelerating effect of the political economy of Iran on PV diffusion, which is embedded in an oil-dependent energy sector. We scrutinize the effect of incumbent oil and gas actors, power of oil and gas actors, institutions at the energy sector level, and energy system infrastructure on PV diffusion. This paper contributes to the scholarly and policy understanding of renewable energy development and its eventual diffusion in developing oil- and gas-rich countries and notably in OPEC member states.

Research on the evolutionary direction of drip irrigation irrigators based on the evolution of technological systems

This paper introduces the theory of technical system evolution into the design of infiltration irrigation irrigators, uses patent analysis to predict the technical system of irrigators, adopts the law of dynamics suitable for the evolution of drip and infiltration irrigation irrigators, and the law of uneven evolution of subsystems to optimize the design of irrigators. It identifies the technical system evolution stage of irrigators as the growth period, forms the evolution process applicable to the growth period of irrigators, and obtains a new type of flexible integral compensated DC channel-wide flow irrigator.

Sustainable energy and environmental sustainability in selected Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation countries

Global environmental threats from human accomplishments are becoming most complex and interlinked, with widespread repercussions for people, ecosystems, and economies. We investigate the impact of low-carbon electricity production and international trade on environmental sustainability in selected Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries, using economic growth and government expenditure as moderators from 1990 to 2019. Comprehensive empirical analysis and second-generation advanced econometric methodologies are applied to this study. Our results signify that low-carbon electricity production is negatively associated, while economic growth, international trade, and government expenditure are positively related to environmental sustainability. Moreover, low-carbon electricity production improves, while economic growth, international trade, and government expenditure deteriorate the environmental sustainability in selected APEC countries. This empirical evidence suggests that APEC countries should broaden low-carbon energy policies to accelerate renewable energy technology and industry system evolution, encouraging breakthrough technological innovations and industrialization of wind power, solar power, and bio-liquid fuels. Research limitations and directions discussed.

Radical Concept Generation Inspired by Cross-Domain Knowledge

Cross-domain knowledge can stimulate radical concept generation (RCG), but there is a lack of guidance to utilize the cross-domain knowledge for RCG. This paper proposes an effective process of RCG in four steps: (1) Identifying radical technology opportunities based on analysis of the dynamic relationship between demand and technical performances; (2) Applying laws and lines of the technological system evolution to determine the search direction of cross-domain knowledge in a qualitative perspective; (3) Taking the minimum complementary distance measure for appropriate cross-domain knowledge in a quantitative perspective; (4) Forming radical concepts using the cross-domain knowledge as inspirations. The method reduces risks and costs caused by uncertainty in RCG and has potential to fertilize research on radical innovation and knowledge-based innovation. A radical concept of gas generator demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Symbiotic Exploration of Silage Machinery Based on Technological System Evolution

In order to make each functional module of silage machinery have a high degree of adaptability and meet the market demand of coordinated operation of each functional module, this paper preliminarily explores the symbiosis concept in the field of silage equipment, and applies the technology system evolution theory to the symbiotic design of silage equipment. In the design stage, the designers divide the functional modules of the silage machinery according to the market and user needs, and then analyze the symbiosis of the interrelated modules and screen out the functional modules with weak adaptability, so as to carry out the technical system evolution and optimize each functional module, and then establish the layout scheme between modules, so that the various functional modules of the silage machinery have strong adaptability, improve product quality, reduce design costs, shorten the design cycle, and realize the user’s demand for the coordinated operation of multi-functional silage machinery.

The Development and Adoption of Online Learning in Pre- and Post-COVID-19: Combination of Technological System Evolution Theory and Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology

After the outbreak of COVID-19, schools heavily depend on e-learning technologies and tools to shift from in-person class to online. This review article analyzes the changes of technology evolution and technology adoption of e-learning in pre- and post-COVID-19 based on the Technology System Evaluation Theory (TSET) and technology adoption of e-learning based on the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT). We intend to explore the interaction of technology evolution and technology adoption in the different focus of e-learning technology in the two stages and the particularity and heterogeneity of the UTAUT model. The results indicate that (1) The moderating results of technology evolution are proposed and evaluated under the UTAUT model before the COVID-19 outbreak. Studies after the COVID-19 pandemic paid more attention to technology efficiency rather than effectiveness; (2) Research on e-learning focuses on the infrastructure to reach more users after the outbreak of COVID-19 because e-learning is the only way to continue education; (3) COVID-19 fear moderates the relationship between the external factors and the behavior intention of e-learning users. The lack of financial support on technology evolution will directly weaken the implementation of new technology. Social Isolation offers more opportunities for students to engage in e-learning. Meanwhile, it slows down the implementation of e-learning because of out-to-date hardware and software. This article offers an enhanced understanding of the interaction of technology evolution and technology adoption under unexpected environments and provides practical insights into how to promote new technology in a way that users will accept and use easily. This study can be tested and extended by empirical research in the future.

On the Advanced Methodology of Risk-Based System Resilience Analysis

The modern evolution of technological systems from Hierarchical branching structures purposed to centralized transfer and distribution of limited resources to multi-agent interconnected self-organized networks aimed to produce, transport and consumption of resources are considered. The model of multi-agent interconnected self-organized adaptive networking systems is proposed, the network topology is considered, a system functioning model including transient processes is analyzed. A substantial limitation of the traditional reliability paradigm for a novel type of systems is demonstrated. It was assumed, that optimization approaches in the context of “big data” utilization lead to create a quasi-infinite space of non-structured decisions, which can be characterized as “big decisions”. The modified approach based on the “equally defended networked system” paradigm and the corresponding quantitative risk measure is proposed.

Technology System Evolution: Inertia and Momentum Revisited

In markets with network externalities, the technology that gains a critical mass of users will gain market momentum, and further attract users. Despite this predicted self-reinforcing feedback propelled by “excess inertia”, we observe technologies dethroning established systems in several contexts. Why are some technologies able to sustain momentum over time while others loose it in favor of dethroners? We address this question conceptually, by revisiting the concept of momentum into the inertial and dynamic components, and empirically, by estimating the effects of both components on technology adoption and market performance in a platform technology context. Drawing from Physics, we conceptualize the inertial component of momentum (i.e., mass) as the stock of platform complements, and the dynamic component (i.e., velocity) as the period-by-period change in such stock, or complement novelty. We show that the dynamic component of momentum explains to a larger extent the sustained momentum and performance of a platform technology system, and has a predictability power for estimating the point at which the overall market tips for platforms of next generation technology. This has relevant implications for technology adoption and competitive dynamics, and help explain why latecomers may dethrone incumbents despite network disadvantage.

Evolution and structure of technological systems - An innovation output network

The mechanisms responsible for the structure and evolution of technological systems are not fully understood. This study examines the network of supply and use of significant innovations across industries in Sweden, 1970-2013. The results suggest that at least 30% of innovation patterns can be statistically predicted by network stimulus from both backward and forward linkages in the Swedish economy. The network is hierarchical, characterized by hubs that connect diverse industries in closely knitted communities. To account for the structure and evolution of innovation networks, the study proposes a preferential weight assignment process, allowing historical technological linkages and proximities to influence future outcomes. The empirical results show that the properties of the Swedish innovation network are strongly predicted by this process, while skill, knowledge and economic interdependencies have significant but more complex effects on link formation. The results are consistent with the idea that innovations emerge in synergistic communities, but suggest that the transformation of technological systems is shaped by technological requirements, imbalances, and opportunities that are not straightforwardly related to other economic or knowledge proximities.

Water powers: the Second World War and the mobilization of hydroelectricity in Canada, the United States, and Germany

AbstractComparing three of the major hydroelectric power-producing countries during the war – Canada, the United States, and Germany – this article considers the implications of expanding hydroelectricity for war production and strategy, and how wartime decisions structured the longer-term evolution of large technological systems. Despite different starting points, all three countries pursued similar strategies in attempting to mobilize hydroelectricity for the war effort. The different access to and use of hydro in these states produced a vital economic and ultimately military advantage or disadvantage. The global dimensions of hydroelectric development during the war, moreover, demonstrate that this conflict was a turning point in the history of electrification.

A scalable node ordering strategy based on community structure for enhanced temporal network visualization

Temporal networks have been used to map the structural evolution of social, technological, and biological systems, among others. Due to the large amount of information on real-world temporal networks, increasing attention has been given to issues related to the visual scalability of network visualization layouts. However, visual clutter due to edge overlap remains the main challenge calling for efficient methods to improve the visual experience. In this paper, we propose a novel and scalable node reordering approach for temporal network visualization, named Community-based Node Ordering (CNO), combining static community detection with node reordering techniques to enhance the identification of visual patterns. The perception of trends, periodicity, anomalies, and other temporal patterns, is facilitated, resulting in faster decision making. Our method helps not only the study of network activity patterns within communities but also the analysis of relatively large networks by breaking down its structure in smaller parts. Using CNO, we further propose a taxonomy to categorize activity patterns within communities. We performed a number of experiments and quantitative analyses using two real-world networks with distinct characteristics and showed that the proposed layout and taxonomy speed up the identification of patterns that would otherwise be difficult to see.

Innovative accuracy design of in-site precise automatic inspecting machine of valve sleeve bore of aeronautical precision coupling

The diameter accuracy and geometric accuracy of the valve sleeve bore of aeronautical precision coupling are both high. It is necessary to inspect the bore diameter and cylindricity error frequently in machining, but there is a lack of in-site high accuracy and low cost automatic inspection methods currently. The scheme and accuracy design of a precise automatic inspecting machine (PAIM) of valve sleeve bore is carried out. Accuracy design of PAIM by traditional error distribution method fails to meet the requirement of measurement accuracy. Based on the idea of error avoidance and TRIZ technology system evolution theory, an innovative accuracy design method by using automatic dynamic disconnected measuring chain is proposed and realized. Accuracy analysis and experiment prove the correctness and validity of the proposed method.

Correction: Divergence in the evolution of Paleolithic symbolic and technological systems: The shining bull and engraved tablets of Rocher de l'Impératrice.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0173037.].

Identifying first signals of emerging dominance in a technological innovation system: A novel approach based on patents

Actors of an early stage technological innovation system (TIS) need to carefully attend to future developments given the high strategic uncertainty that often prevails in such systems. Such uncertainty is a reflection of the different technology categories that exist as well as the highly dynamic character of such systems in general. It is only gradually, as a result, that dominance of one technology category emerges against alternative categories and uncertainty is thereby reduced. Nonetheless, there has been limited attention so far to how researchers can operationalize some of the preliminary signals in order to anticipate which technology category is likely to emerge. In this paper, we therefore focus on how such early signals can be detected, i.e. by drawing upon patents and their underlying technology classification. Towards this end, we introduce two novel indicators based on the classification codes of patents: the Patent Trajectory (PTt) indicator and the Category Concentration (CCt) indicator. Joint application of both indicators enables us to operationalize the seminal concept of the technology cycle from Tushman and Rosenkopf (1992), which is specifically translated to the domain of TIS by distinguishing between the evolutionary phases of a TIS. To operationalize our novel methodological framework, we specifically employ the case of algae, ultimately concluding that this particular TIS tends to evolve in the direction of pharmaceutical applications. In a narrow sense, this framework can thus help to better understand the context of the TIS for algae. More significantly, however, the demonstrated ability of our approach to anticipate the evolution and formation of technological innovation systems signifies a worthwhile contribution for the larger domain of forecasting and strategic management.

Divergence in the evolution of Paleolithic symbolic and technological systems: The shining bull and engraved tablets of Rocher de l'Impératrice.

The development of the Azilian in Western Europe 14,000 years ago is considered a “revolution” in Upper Paleolithic Archaeology. One of the main elements of this rapid social restructuring is the abandonment of naturalistic figurative art on portable pieces or on cave walls in the Magdalenian in favor of abstract expression on small pebbles. Recent work shows that the transformation of human societies between the Magdalenian and the Azilian was more gradual. The discovery of a new Early Azilian site with decorated stones in France supports this hypothesis. While major changes in stone tool technology between the Magdalenian and Azilian clearly mark important adaptive changes, the discovery of 45 engraved schist tablets from archaeological layers at Le Rocher de l’Impératrice attests to iconographic continuity together with special valorization of aurochs as shown by a “shining” bull depiction. This evidence suggests that some cultural features such as iconography may lag far behind technological changes. We also argue that eventual change in symbolic expression, which includes the later disappearance of figurative art, provides new insight into the probable restructuring of the societies.

Long-Run Dynamics of the U.S. Patent Classification System

Almost by definition, radical innovations create a need to revise existing classification systems. As a result, the evolution of technological classification systems reflects technological evolution. We present three sets of findings regarding classification volatility in the U.S. Patent Classification System. First, we study the evolution of the number of distinct classes. Reconstructed time series based on the current classification scheme are very different from historical data. This suggests that using the current classification to analyze the past produces a distorted view of the evolution of the system. Second, we study the relative sizes of classes. The size distribution is exponential so classes can be of quite different sizes, but the largest classes are not necessarily the oldest. To explain this pattern with a simple stochastic growth model, we introduce the assumption that classes have a regular chance to be split. Third, we study reclassification. The share of patents that are in a different class now than they were at birth can be quite high. Reclassification mostly occurs across classes belonging to the same 1-digit NBER category, but not always. We also document that reclassified patents tend to be more cited than non-reclassified ones, even after controlling for grant year and class of origin. More generally we argue that classification changes and patent reclassification are quite common, reveal interesting information about technological evolution, and must be taken into account when using classification as a basis for forecasting.

A Novel Mechanical Analogy-Based Battery Model for SoC Estimation Using a Multicell EKF

The future evolution of technological systems dedicated to improve energy efficiency will strongly depend on effective and reliable Energy Storage Systems, as key components for Smart Grids, microgrids and electric mobility. Besides possible improvements in chemical materials and cells design, the Battery Management System is the most important electronic device that improves the reliability of a battery pack. In fact, a precise State of Charge (SoC) estimation allows the energy flows controller to exploit better the full capacity of each cell. In this paper, we propose an alternative definition for the SoC, explaining the rationales by a mechanical analogy. We introduce a novel cell model, conceived as a series of three electric dipoles, together with a procedure for parameters estimation relying only on voltage measures and a given current profile. The three dipoles represent the quasi-stationary, the dynamics and the istantaneous components of voltage measures. An Extended Kalman Filer (EKF) is adopted as a nonlinear state estimator. Moreover, we propose a multi-cell EKF system based on a round-robin approach to allow the same processing block to keep track of many cells at the same time. Performance tests with a prototype battery pack composed by 18 A123 cells connected in series show encouraging results.

Human geography and socio-technical transition studies: Promising intersections

Transition researchers recognize increasingly the need to better address the role that spatial and geographical factors play in guiding the evolution of socio-technical and technological innovation systems. At the same time, some geographers are being drawn to transition studies as they strive to better understand the development trajectories of cities, industries, production networks, and economies. Building off these convergences, this paper proposes two interventions through which geographical ideas might further contribute to transitions research. The first focuses on conceptualizations of the socio-spatial dynamics through which TIS or niche contexts are coupled or aligned effectively with socio-technical regimes such that regime shifts become possible. The second brings the concept of place-making to bear on transition studies in order to analyze the political processes that shape the evolution of socio-technical systems. The paper closes with general arguments about ways to expand and diversify the geography-of-sustainability-transitions epistemic community.

Functional evolution and accumulation of technological innovation systems: The case of renewable energy in East Africa

This paper compares the historical development of innovation systems related to biogas and improved cooking stove technologies in Rwanda and Kenya by applying the 'functions approach'. It argues that the accumulation of functions in these four renewable energy technological innovation systems (TISs) differed substantially. We find that the accumulation of TIS functions at early stages of development is determined more by national and international contextual factors than by specificities related to technologies or internal dynamics (interaction of functions). Further examination of the functional patterns of TISs suggests that differences in the accumulation rates of functions explain the differences in diffusion rates, with broader and more balanced TIS functional accumulation being related to higher diffusion rates. The paper concludes that systematic support, including well-directed international development assistance, would enable the development of mature and balanced TISs that nurture the diffusion of renewable energy technologies.

S-Curves Analysis Focusing on WOM for Technological System Evolution

Market competition is becoming more and more intense through globalization of products. And the technology is being improved sustainably, or new idea is being applied continuously for overcoming an existing technology. For the continuous and secure leadership of a market, we need to know the adoption timing of next-generation technology and next-development trends for technical systems. In this paper, we presented the product innovation understanding method based on the S-curve analysis with product quality focusing on Word of Mouth (WOM). The vacuum cleaner was chosen for product innovation understanding. The technological system evolution process of this product was analyzed using trends for the number of patents, the diffusion rate, and WOM information in Japan from the viewpoint of product quality. As the result, we confirmed that cyclone and robot type vacuums have become sustainable and disruptive innovations, respectively. Additionally, for using in S-curve analysis, the relation between WOM information and product quality was generalized by combining the S-curves of each quality's Negative /Positive ratio for WOM content.