Synoptic Forcing Research Articles

Present and future near-surface wind climate of Greenland from high resolution regional climate modelling

The present and twenty-first century near-surface wind climate of Greenland is presented using output from the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2. The modelled wind variability and wind distribution compare favourably to observations from three automatic weather stations in the ablation zone of southwest Greenland. The Weibull shape parameter is used to classify the wind climate. High values (κ > 4) are found in northern Greenland, indicative of uniform winds and a dominant katabatic forcing, while lower values (κ < 3) are found over the ocean and southern Greenland, where the synoptic forcing dominates. Very high values of the shape parameter are found over concave topography where confluence strengthens the katabatic circulation, while very low values are found in a narrow band along the coast due to barrier winds. To simulate the future (2081–2098) wind climate RACMO2 was forced with the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model using a scenario of mid-range radiative forcing of +4.5 W m−2 by 2100. For the future simulated climate, the near-surface potential temperature deficit reduces in all seasons in regions where the surface temperature is below the freezing point, indicating a reduction in strength of the near-surface temperature inversion layer. This leads to a wind speed reduction over the central ice sheet where katabatic forcing dominates, and a wind speed increase over steep coastal topography due to counteracting effects of thermal and katabatic forcing. Thermally forced winds over the seasonally sea ice covered region of the Greenland Sea are reduced by up to 2.5 m s−1.

Impacts of bias correction of lateral boundary conditions on regional climate projections in West Africa

Biases existing in the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) influence climate simulations in regional climate models (RCMs). Correcting the biases in global climate model (GCM)-produced LBCs before running RCMs was proposed in previous studies as a possible way to reduce the GCM-related model dependence of future climate projections using RCMs. In this study the ICTP Regional Climate Model Version 4 (RegCM4) is used to investigate the impact of LBC bias correction on projected future changes of regional climate in West Africa. To accomplish this, two types of present versus future simulations are conducted using RegCM4: a control type where both the present and future LBCs are derived directly from the GCM output (as is done in most regional climate downscaling studies); an experiment type where the present-day LBCs are from reanalysis data and future LBCs are derived by combining the reanalysis data and the GCM-projected LBC changes. For each type of simulations, three different sets of LBCs are experimented on: 6-hourly synoptic forcing directly from the reanalysis or GCM, 6-hourly data interpolated from monthly climatology (without diurnal cycle), and 6-hourly data interpolated from the month-specific climatology of diurnal cycles. It is found that the simulations using different LBCs produce similar present-day summer rainfall patterns, but the predicted future changes differ significantly depending on how the LBC bias correction is treated. Specifically, both the bias correction applied at the synoptic scale and the bias correction applied to the monthly interpolated LBCs without diurnal cycle produce a spurious drying signal caused by physical inconsistency in the corrected future LBCs. Interpolated monthly LBCs with diurnal cycle alleviate the problem to a large extent. These results suggest that using bias-corrected LBCs to drive regional climate models may not guarantee reliable future projections although reasonable present climate can be simulated. Physical inconsistencies may be contained in the bias-corrected LBCs, increasing the uncertainties of RCM-produced future projections.

Atmospheric Forcing of Debris Flows in the Southern Swiss Alps

AbstractThis article addresses the role of large-scale circulation and thermodynamical features in the release of past debris flows in the Swiss Alps by using classification algorithms, potential instability, and convective time scale. The study is based on a uniquely dense dendrogeomorphic time series of debris flows covering the period 1872–2008, reanalysis data, instrumental time series, and gridded hourly precipitation series (1992–2006) over the area. Results highlight the crucial role of synoptic and mesoscale forcing as well as of convective equilibrium on triggering rainfalls. Two midtropospheric synoptic patterns favor anomalous southwesterly flow toward the area and high potential instability. These findings imply a certain degree of predictability of debris-flow events and can therefore be used to improve existing alert systems.

Modelling wildfire activity in Iberia with different atmospheric circulation weather types

AbstractThis work focuses on the spatial and temporal variability of burnt area (BA) in the entire Iberian Peninsula (IP) and on the construction of statistical models to reproduce the inter‐annual variability. A novel common dataset was assembled for the whole IP by merging the registered BA from 66 administrative regions of both Portugal and Spain. We applied a cluster analysis to identify larger regions with similar fire regimes and results point to the existence of four clusters (Northwestern, Northern, Southwestern and Eastern) whose spatial patterns and seasonal fire regimes are shown to be related with constraining factors such as topography, vegetation cover and climate conditions. The relationship between BA at monthly time scale with both long‐term climatic pre‐conditions and short‐term synoptic forcing was assessed using correlation and regression analysis based on: (1) temperature and precipitation from 2 to 7 months in advance to fire peak season, (2) synoptic weather patterns derived from 11 distinct Weather Types Classifications (WTC). Different relations were obtained for each IP region with a relevant link being identified between BA and short‐term synoptic forcing for all clusters, while the relation with long‐term climatic preconditioning was relevant for all but one cluster. Stepwise regression models based on the best climatic and synoptic circulation predictors were developed with cross‐validation to avoid over fitting. The performance of the models varies within IP regions, though models exclusively based on WTC tend to better reproduce the annual BA time series than those merely based on pre‐conditioning climatic information. Nevertheless, the use of both synoptic and climatic predictors provides the best results, particularly for the two western clusters, with Pearson correlation coefficient values higher than 0.7. Finally, it is shown that typical synoptic configurations that favour high values of BA correspond to dry and warm wind flows associated with anti‐cyclonic regimes.

Examination of Errors in Near-Surface Temperature and Wind from WRF Numerical Simulations in Regions of Complex Terrain

Abstract The performance of an advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) in predicting near-surface atmospheric temperature and wind conditions under various terrain and weather regimes is examined. Verification of 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed and direction against surface Mesonet observations is conducted. Three individual events under strong synoptic forcings (i.e., a frontal system, a low-level jet, and a persistent inversion) are first evaluated. It is found that the WRF model is able to reproduce these weather phenomena reasonably well. Forecasts of near-surface variables in flat terrain generally agree well with observations, but errors also occur, depending on the predictability of the lower-atmospheric boundary layer. In complex terrain, forecasts not only suffer from the model's inability to reproduce accurate atmospheric conditions in the lower atmosphere but also struggle with representative issues due to mismatches between the model and the actual terrain. In addition, surface forecasts at finer resolutions do not always outperform those at coarser resolutions. Increasing the vertical resolution may not help predict the near-surface variables, although it does improve the forecasts of the structure of mesoscale weather phenomena. A statistical analysis is also performed for 120 forecasts during a 1-month period to further investigate forecast error characteristics in complex terrain. Results illustrate that forecast errors in near-surface variables depend strongly on the diurnal variation in surface conditions, especially when synoptic forcing is weak. Under strong synoptic forcing, the diurnal patterns in the errors break down, while the flow-dependent errors are clearly shown.

The convective adjustment time‐scale as indicator of predictability of convective precipitation

AbstractPredictability of convective precipitation depends on the interaction between synoptic forcing and local‐scale flow characteristics. In order to assess different predictability levels it is desirable to objectively determine the dominant process in a given meteorological situation. Such a measure is given by the convective adjustment time‐scale τ, a physically based quantity that distinguishes between strong and weak synoptically forced precipitation regimes. By employing the convective adjustment time‐scale diagnostic, forecasts of the convection‐permitting COSMO‐DE ensemble prediction system available for a total of 88 days in summer 2009 are examined. Based on the normalized ensemble spread of hourly precipitation rates, it is shown that the practical predictability of total precipitation is higher during strong large‐scale forcing than during weak forcing. Likewise, the forecast skill, determined using two deterministic scores, is higher during strong than during weak forcing conditions. Different predictability levels of convective precipitation can be revealed by examining distinct sub‐ensembles depending on their source of uncertainty. The impact of variations in the boundary conditions of the driving global models used in the ensemble system is quite insensitive to the prevailing flow regime, while the impact of physics perturbations representing the model error is clearly weather regime dependent, exhibiting a strong contribution only during weakly forced conditions. Then convective precipitation turns out to be especially sensitive to variations in the physics parametrization even at forecast lead times of 12 to 18 hours during the main convective period in the afternoon. Two case‐studies exemplifying the strong and weak forcing regimes are shown, to illustrate how forecast skill varies and the different ensemble members cluster as the precipitation event evolves.

On a Natural Environment for Glaciogenic Cloud Seeding

AbstractA “climatology” of supercooled cloud tops is presented for southeastern Australia and the western United States, where historic glaciogenic cloud-seeding trials have been located. The climatology finds that supercooled cloud tops are common over the mountainous region of southeastern Australia and Tasmania (SEAT). Regions where cloud-seeding trials reported positive results coincide with a higher likelihood of observing supercooled cloud tops. Maximum absolute frequencies (AFs) occur ∼40% of the time during winter. There is a relationship between the underlying orography and the likelihood of observing supercooled liquid water (SLW)-topped clouds. Regions of the United States that have been the subject of cloud-seeding trials show lower AFs of SLW-topped clouds. The maximum is located over the Sierra Nevada and occurs ∼20% of the time during winter (Sierra Cooperative Pilot Project). These sites are on mountains with peaks higher than any found in SEAT (&gt;3000 m). For the Sierra Nevada, the AF of SLW-topped clouds decreases as the elevation increases, with glaciation occurring at the higher elevations. The remote sensing of supercooled cloud tops is not proof of a region’s amenability for glaciogenic cloud seeding. This study simply highlights the significant environmental differences between historical cloud-seeding regions in the United States and Australia, suggesting that it is not reasonable to extrapolate results from one region to another. Without in situ cloud microphysical measurements, in-depth knowledge of the timing and duration of potentially seedable events, or knowledge of the synoptic forcing of such events, it is not possible to categorize a region’s potential for precipitation augmentation operations.

Meteorological Controls on Wind Turbine Wakes

The primary control on the magnitude of the power losses induced by wind turbine wakes in large wind farms is the hub-height wind speed via its link to the turbine thrust coefficient. Hence, at low to moderate wind speeds (between cut-in and rated turbine wind speeds) when the thrust coefficient is high, wake losses are proportionally larger and decrease to be virtually undetectable at wind speeds above rated wind speeds. Wind direction is also critical. Not only does it determine the effective spacing between turbines but also the wind speed distribution is primarily determined by synoptic forcing and typically has a predominant direction from which wind speeds tend to be higher (from southwest for much of the central United States and northern Europe). Two other interlinked variables, turbulence intensity (TI), and atmospheric stability also dictate wake losses. Quantifying, understanding, modeling, and predicting this complex and interdependent system is therefore critical to understanding and modeling wind farm power losses due to wakes, and to optimizing wind farm layout. This paper quantifies the impact of these variables on the power loss due to wakes using data from the large offshore wind farms located at Horns Rev and Nysted in Denmark.

Linking synoptic forcing and local mesoscale processes with biological dynamics off Ningaloo Reef

AbstractA hydrographic survey offshore Ningaloo reef, north‐west Australia, in austral autumn 2010 revealed relatively stable subsurface water masses in the region, despite the influence of interannual variability of the Leeuwin Current (LC). The surface water mass seems slightly more variable at seasonal time scale, probably due to various contributions of the geographically distinct source waters of the LC. A subsurface nitrate maximum (~110–230 m), a prominent feature of the Ningaloo area during autumn, was consistently observed within different water masses. Tightly coupled variations of subsurface nitrate and oxygen at small vertical scale suggest it is due to local in situ remineralization of organic matter likely to accumulate along sharp physical interfaces and possibly favored by injections of oxygenated subsurface waters. Offshore, enhanced levels of surface chlorophyll a within the downwelling‐favorable LC are associated with deeper mixed layer depth, eroding the shallow source of nutrients. Close to the continental shelf, these nutrients are observed to be efficiently uplifted within the core of quasi‐persistent topographically trapped submesoscale cyclonic eddies dominated by nonlinear effects. A wind‐driven coastal upwelling event occurred in autumn and was characterized by a relatively deep source (~100–150 m), coinciding with the subsurface maximum of nutrients, thus promoting coastal productivity locally and farther north by alongshore advection within the Ningaloo current.

The Wind Profile in the Coastal Boundary Layer: Wind Lidar Measurements and Numerical Modelling

Traditionally it has been difficult to verify mesoscale model wind predictions against observations in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here we used measurements from a wind lidar to study the PBL up to 800 m above the surface at a flat coastal site in Denmark during a one month period in autumn. We ran the Weather Research and Forecasting numerical model with two different roughness descriptions over land, two different synoptic forcings and two different PBL schemes at two vertical resolutions and evaluated the wind profile against observations from the wind lidar. The simulated wind profile did not have enough vertical shear in the lower part of the PBL and also had a negative bias higher up in the boundary layer. Near the surface the internal boundary layer and the surface roughness influenced the wind speed, while higher up it was only influenced by the choice of PBL scheme and the synoptic forcing. By replacing the roughness value for the land-use category in the model with a more representative mesoscale roughness, the observed bias in friction velocity was reduced. A higher-order PBL scheme simulated the wind profile from the west with a lower wind-speed bias at the top of the PBL. For easterly winds low-level jets contributed to a negative wind-speed bias around 300 m and were better simulated by the first-order scheme. In all simulations, the wind-profile shape, wind speed and turbulent fluxes were not improved when a higher vertical resolution or different synoptic forcing were used.

Ensemble forecast spread induced by soil moisture changes over mid-south and neighbouring mid-western region of the USA

ABSTRACTThis study investigated the potential impact of soil moisture perturbations on the statistical spread of an ensemble forecast for three different synoptic events during the summer of 2006. Soil moisture was perturbed from a control simulation to generate a 12 member ensemble with six drier and six moister soils. The impacts on the near-surface atmospheric conditions and on precipitation were analysed. It was found, as previous studies have confirmed, that soil moisture can change the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and of the overlying circulation. It was found that regardless of the conditions in synoptic forcing, temperature, relative humidity and horizontal wind field exhibited a spatial correlation coefficient (R) close to one with respect to the control simulation. Vertical velocity, however, showed a marked decrease in R down to 0.4 as the precipitation activity increased. For vertical velocity, however, this quantity grew to near 1.0 consistent with R near zero and standard deviations very close to that of the control. These results suggested a more complex picture in which soil moisture perturbations played a major role in modifying precipitation and the near-surface circulation but did not broaden the statistical spread of trajectories in phase space of all variables.

Recent warming in Greenland in a long-term instrumental (1881–2012) climatic context: I. Evaluation of surface air temperature records

We present an updated analysis of monthly means of daily mean, minimum and maximum surface air temperature (SAT) data from Greenland coastal weather stations and from a long-running site on the Greenland ice sheet, and analyse these data for evidence of climate change, especially focusing on the last 20 years but using the whole periods of available records (some since 1873). We demonstrate very strong recent warming along the west coast of Greenland, especially during winter (locally >10 °C since 1991), and rather weaker warming on the east Greenland coast, which is influenced by different oceanographic/sea-ice and meteorological synoptic forcing conditions to the rest of Greenland. Coastal Greenland seasonal mean SAT trends were generally 2–6 °C, strongest in winter (5.7 °C) and least in summer and autumn (both 2.2 °C), during 1981–2011/12. Since 2001 Greenland mean coastal SAT increased significantly by 2.9 °C in winter and 0.8 °C in summer but decreased insignificantly by 1.1 °C in autumn and 0.2 °C in spring, during a period when there was little net change (≤ ± 0.1 °C) in northern hemisphere temperatures. SAT means for the latest 2001–11/12 decade were significantly in excess of those for peak decadal periods during the Early Twentieth Century Warm Period only in summer and winter, and not significantly greater in spring and autumn. Summer SAT increases in southern Greenland for the last 20 years were generally greater for maximum than minimum temperatures. By contrast, in winter, the recent warming was greater for minimum than maximum temperatures. The greatest SAT changes in all seasons are seen on Greenland’s west coast. SAT changes on the ice sheet and a key marginal glacier closely followed nearby coastal temperatures over the last 20 years.

Impacts of land use changes and synoptic forcing on the seasonal climate over the Pearl River Delta of China

In this study, the impact of the rapid rate of urbanization over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region of China since the 1980s on its seasonal climate is investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Two land-cover data are employed to simulate the urbanization effects on the regional climate in both summer (June and August) and winter (December and February) for 26 years from 1984 to 2009. Spatial and temporal features of the urbanization effect on temperature and precipitation are found to be different between summer and winter. Urban warming and modifications of surface variables such as surface latent heat flux and 2-m relatively humidity are more pronounced in summer. Moreover, summer rainfall is enhanced but winter precipitation is reduced. The increase in summer rainfall is mainly contributed by the strong urban heat island effect, which enhances the convective circulation over the urban area. On the other hand, a reduction in winter precipitation is observed. The different behavior during winter time is due to drier northerly winds and increased atmospheric stability. Furthermore, the changes in winter precipitation are associated with the synoptic forcing such as El Niño – Southern Oscillation and monsoon, but no significant correlation can be found between changes in summer rainfall and the synoptic forcing. In other words, the local surface forcing (including radiative fluxes, heat, momentum and water transfer at the air–land interface) dominates over the synoptic forcing in summer but the reverse is true in winter. Under conditions of weak synoptic flow, local thermodynamic effects of urbanization dominates, setting up convergence zone over the urban area and leading to increased precipitation. However, during winter time, under the influence of strong northeasterly synoptic flow, dynamic effects of increased surface roughness urban areas dominate and lead to convergence upwind of the urban region.

Objective Prediction of Warm Season Afternoon Thunderstorms in Northern Taiwan Using a Fuzzy Logic Approach

Abstract In this study, a fuzzy logic algorithm is developed to provide objective guidance for the prediction of afternoon thunderstorms in northern Taiwan using preconvective predictors during the warm season (May–October) from 2005 to 2008. The predictors are derived from surface stations and sounding measurements. The study is limited to 277 days when synoptic forcing was weak and thermal instability produced by the solar heating is primarily responsible for thunderstorm initiation. The fuzzy algorithm contains 29 predictors and associated weights. The weights are based on the maximum of the critical success index (CSI) to forecast afternoon thunderstorms. The most important predictors illustrate that under relatively warm and moist synoptic conditions, sea-breeze transport of moisture into the Taipei Basin along with weak winds inland provide favorable conditions for the occurrence of afternoon convective storms. In addition, persistence of yesterday’s convective storm activity contributed to improving today’s forecast. Skill score comparison between the fuzzy algorithm and forecasters from the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau showed that for forecasting afternoon thunderstorms, the fuzzy logic algorithm outperformed the operational forecasters. This was the case for both the calibration and independent datasets. There was a tendency for the forecasters to overforecast the number of afternoon thunderstorm days. The fuzzy logic algorithm is able to integrate the preconvective predictors and provide probability guidance for the prediction of afternoon thunderstorms under weak synoptic-scale conditions, and could be implemented in real-time operations as a forecaster aid.

Observations of Mergers between Squall Lines and Isolated Supercell Thunderstorms

Abstract A set of 21 cases in which an isolated supercell merged with a squall line were identified and investigated using analyses from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model, archived data from the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network, and severe storm reports. This analysis revealed two primary environments associated with these mergers: a weak synoptic forcing, weak to moderate shear environment (WF) and a strong synoptic forcing, strong shear environment (SF). These environments bear a strong resemblance to those identified for progressive (WF) and serial (SF) derechoes in past studies. Radar reflectivity data revealed a spectrum of storm evolution patterns that generally lead to the merged system organizing as a bow echo. At one extreme, observed exclusively in the WF environment, the entire squall line evolved into a large bow echo following the merger. At the other extreme, observed for several cases in the SF environment, a localized bowing segment developed embedded within the larger squall line. The remaining cases exhibited characteristics best described as a hybrid of these extremes. Storm rotation generally weakened and became concentrated in low levels following the merger, although the exact evolution differed between the two background environments. Finally, an analysis of storm reports revealed that hail reports were maximized premerger and severe wind reports postmerger in both environments, while the distribution of tornado reports varied. In the WF environment a larger fraction of tornado reports occurred postmerger, while tornado production was maximized premerger in the SF environment. This suggests an evolving severe weather threat during the course of the merger, the details of which depend on the background environment.

Synoptic forcing of wave states in the southeast Chukchi Sea, Alaska, at an offshore location

A bottom-mounted Recording Doppler Current Profiler was placed at an offshore location (depth of 34 m) in the southeast Chukchi Sea, Alaska, from July through December 2007 (UTC) with the objective of linking observed wave activity—wind-sea and swells—to their synoptic drivers. A total of 47 intervals of elevated wave state were recorded: 29 exceeding 1 m significant wave height (SWH), 16 exceeding 2 m SWH, and 3 m exceeded on two occasions; during one of those, a SWH of 4 m was observed. Detailed analysis of the two large events, including comparison with high-resolution reanalysis wind data (North America Regional Reanalysis), showed wave direction from the east, varied about 15° to the north (counterclockwise) from the wind direction, and current flow in the opposite direction (from the west). This is thought to be the influence of a strong “wind-sea” presence. Regarding classic wave limitations, although the SE Chukchi Sea is a large embayment bordered by land to the east, fetch limitations from the northeast and southeast did not appear to be a constraint for the wind speeds indicated by reanalysis. These two events appeared to be driven by winds associated with cyclonic systems that moved into the eastern Bering Sea and stalled. Examination of smaller waves associated with these events suggested that waves of 1.5 m SWH or less are likely part of another regime and can either be swell or wind-sea, moving in from the open Chukchi Sea to the northwest or through the Bering Strait to the south.

Synoptic forcing of wave states in the southeast Chukchi Sea, Alaska, at nearshore locations

Two bottom-mounted recording Doppler current profilers (RDCP) were deployed at nearshore locations (approximately 3 and 8 km offshore, in about 18 m water depth) in the southeast Chukchi Sea, Alaska, from October 2009 to September 2010 (UTC) with the goal of linking observed wave activity—wind-sea and swells—to their synoptic drivers. The northerly RDCP recorded a total of 16 events of elevated wave states: 15 exceeding 1 m significant wave height (SWH), and 1 exceeding 2 m SWH. The southerly RDCP recorded a total of 25 events of elevated wave states: 23 exceeding 1 m SWH, 2 m exceeded on two occasions and a SWH of 3 m was observed. Detailed analysis of the three large events (i.e., SWH events ≥2 m), including comparison with high-resolution reanalysis wind data (North America regional reanalysis), strongly suggested the wave energy evolved from a distant storm and would be defined as swell. Due to the close proximity of the shoreline to the east of the instruments, wind speeds based on reanalysis were constrained so fetch was westerly. Wave direction was also westerly, varying about 25° to the north (clockwise) or the south (counterclockwise) from the wind direction which is believed to be influenced by fetch and the strong current flow located where the nearshore RDCPs were deployed. Shore-fast sea ice is also believed to play a role but shown to only dampen wave activity for 3 months (January–April 2010), thus implying early ice breakup in this nearshore region. Two events appeared to be driven by southwesterly winds associated with cyclonic systems that moved into the eastern Chukchi Sea and then stalled. However, the second storm event appeared to be driven by northwesterly winds associated with a cyclonic system over the Brooks Range, a less common occurrence. Given that the typical storm activity in the region occurs as storms move into the Bering Sea in fall, this represents another potential source for wave conditions posing danger to people on the water or to coastal infrastructure.

An objective circulation pattern classification for the region of svalbard

Käsmacher, O. and Schneider, C., 2011. An objective circulation pattern classification for the region of Svalbard. Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, 93, 259–271. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468‐0459.2011.00431.xThis study presents an automated or so‐called objective circulation pattern classification for the region of the Svalbard archipelago on the basis of gridded NCEP/NCAR‐reanalysis data in a spatial resolution of 2.5 × 2.5° for the variables sea level pressure and geopotential heights on the 500 and 700-hPa levels. Self‐organizing maps were set up and run several times, each time using a different number of clusters into which to partition the data. After evaluating the results for all clusters by means of statistical indices we decided to use nine circulation patterns for further analysis. The resulting patterns were related to surface variables for Svalbard in order to test how good the catalogue of circulation patterns performs as a tool for the analysis of synoptic forcing. Furthermore, the catalogue was compared to an alternative subjective classification of weather types which results in only partly coherence. We show that the different circulation patterns derived in this study nicely represent seasonal states of the atmosphere. Within seasons, significant deviations of surface air temperature and precipitable water content are associated with the different weather types. The latter fact points to a broad applicability of this circulation pattern classification for studies that address the impact of interannual atmospheric variability on other parts of the geo‐system such as glaciers, ice caps and vegetational patterns.

Numerical experiments investigating the orographic effects on a heavy rainfall event over the northwestern coast of Taiwan during TAMEX IOP 13

An unusual heavy coastal rainfall event (>231 mm day−1) occurred during the period of 24–25 June 1987 over the lowland (elevation less than 200 m) and coastal areas in northwest and central Taiwan. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to investigate the role of synoptic forcing, orographic effects and the diurnal heating cycle on the generation of a prefrontal localized low-level convergence zone offshore leading to the observed coastal rainfall maximum. This case is well simulated by the control experiment initialized at 0000 UTC (0800 LST) 24 June 1987 using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts data. A model sensitivity test without Taiwan’s terrain fails to reproduce the observed coastal rainfall maximum. It is apparent that for this case, synoptic forcing by the Mei-Yu jet/front system is inadequate to initiate deep convection leading to the development of coastal heavy precipitation. The generation of the localized low-level convergence zone is closely related to the simulated strong winds with a large southwesterly wind component (or the barrier jet) along the northwestern coast as the surface front approaches. The development of the simulated barrier jet is due to a 50–60% increase in the meridional pressure gradient as a result of orographic blocking. The diurnal heating cycle also impacts the strength of the simulated barrier jet over the northwestern Taiwan coast. The simulated barrier jet is stronger (~3 m s−1) in the early morning than in the afternoon as orographic blocking is most significant when the surface air is the coldest. The representation of the terrain in the model impacts the simulated barrier jet and rainfall. With a coarse horizontal resolution (45 km), orographic blocking is less significant than the control run with a much weaker meridional wind component over the northwestern coast of Taiwan. The coarse resolution model fails to reproduce the observed rainband off the northwestern coast. Thus, to successfully simulate this type of event, high-resolution mesoscale models adequately depicting Taiwan’s terrain are required.

Radar characteristics of continental, coastal, and maritime convection observed during AMMA/NAMMA

AbstractGround‐based radar observations at three distinct geographical locations in West Africa along a common latitudinal band (Niamey, Niger (continental), Kawsara, Senegal (coastal), and Praia, Republic of Cape Verde (maritime)) are analyzed to determine convective system characteristics in each domain during a 29‐day period in 2006. Ancillary datasets provided by the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) and NASA‐AMMA (NAMMA) field campaigns are also used to place the radar observations in context. Results show that the total precipitation is dominated by propagating mesoscale convective systems. Convective characteristics vary according to environmental properties, such as vertical shear, CAPE, and the degree of synoptic forcing. Data are bifurcated based on the presence or absence of African easterly waves. In general, African easterly waves appear to enhance mesoscale convective system strength characteristics (e.g. total precipitation and vertical reflectivity profiles) at the inland and maritime sites. The wave regime also resulted in an increased population of the largest observed mesoscale convective systems observed near the coast, which led to an increase in stratiform precipitation. Despite this increase, differentiation of convective strength characteristics was less obvious between wave and no‐wave regimes at the coast. Owing to the propagating nature of these advecting mesoscale convective systems, interaction with the regional thermodynamic and dynamic environment appears to result in more variability than enhancements due to the wave regime, independent of location. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society