Synoptic Forcing Research Articles

The Dynamics of an Extreme Precipitation Event in Northeastern Vietnam in 2015 and Its Predictability in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

Abstract A record-breaking rainfall event occurred in northeastern Vietnam in late July–early August 2015. The coastal region in Quang Ninh Province was hit severely, with station rainfall sums in the range of 1000–1500 mm. The heavy rainfall led to flooding and landslides, which resulted in an estimated economic loss of $108 million (U.S. dollars) and 32 fatalities. Using a multitude of data sources and ECMWF ensemble forecasts, the synoptic–dynamic development and practical predictability of the event is investigated in detail for the 4-day period from 1200 UTC 25 July to 1200 UTC 29 July 2015, during which the major portion of the rainfall was observed. A slowly moving upper-level subtropical trough and the associated surface low in the northern Gulf of Tonkin promoted sustained moisture convergence and convection over northeastern Vietnam. The humidity was advected in a moisture transport band lying across the Indochina Peninsula and emanating from a tropical storm over the Bay of Bengal. Analyses of the ECMWF ensemble forecasts clearly showed a sudden emergence of the predictability of the extreme event at lead times of 3 days that was associated with the correct forecasts of the intensity and location of the subtropical trough in the 51 ensemble members. Thus, the Quang Ninh event is a good example in which the predictability of tropical convection arises from large-scale synoptic forcing; in the present case it was due to a tropical–extratropical interaction that has not been documented before for the region and season.

Sensitivity of Dryline Convection Forecasts to Upstream Forecast Errors for Two Weakly Forced MPEX Cases

Abstract The sensitivity of convective forecasts along the Texas dryline to upstream forecast fields at earlier lead times is evaluated for two consecutive days (27–28 May) characterized by no clear synoptic forcing for convection initiation (CI) during the 2013 Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) by applying the ensemble-based sensitivity technique to convection-allowing WRF ensemble forecasts. For both cases, the members with stronger convection are characterized by higher water vapor just above the top of the boundary layer, which is associated with lower convective inhibition (CIN) at the time of CI. Forecast convection is sensitive to the lower-tropospheric water vapor and zonal wind at earlier lead times farther south along the dryline, such that increasing the water vapor and/or making the wind more easterly is associated with more convection. For 28 May, the water vapor along the dryline is also sensitive to the convection that occurs around 0600 UTC, which leads to cold pool–induced surface divergence that subsequently shifts the dryline north or south. Ensemble members that correctly have decreased convection in the Texas Panhandle on 28 May have more accurate forecasts of water vapor and meridional wind with respect to dropwindsondes in the sensitive region 9 h prior to CI compared to members with more extensive convection. Reducing the 0-h water vapor within the sensitive region can suppress convection in members with extensive convection; however, increasing the 0-h water vapor does not lead to more convection in members without convection.

Surface-layer turbulence, energy balance and links to atmospheric circulations over a mountain glacier in the French Alps

Abstract. Over Saint-Sorlin Glacier in the French Alps (45° N, 6.1° E; ∼ 3 km2) in summer, we study the atmospheric surface-layer dynamics, turbulent fluxes, their uncertainties and their impact on surface energy balance (SEB) melt estimates. Results are classified with regard to large-scale forcing. We use high-frequency eddy-covariance data and mean air-temperature and wind-speed vertical profiles, collected in 2006 and 2009 in the glacier's atmospheric surface layer. We evaluate the turbulent fluxes with the eddy-covariance (sonic) and the profile method, and random errors and parametric uncertainties are evaluated by including different stability corrections and assuming different values for surface roughness lengths. For weak synoptic forcing, local thermal effects dominate the wind circulation. On the glacier, weak katabatic flows with a wind-speed maximum at low height (2–3 m) are detected 71 % of the time and are generally associated with small turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and small net turbulent fluxes. Radiative fluxes dominate the SEB. When the large-scale forcing is strong, the wind in the valley aligns with the glacier flow, intense downslope flows are observed, no wind-speed maximum is visible below 5 m, and TKE and net turbulent fluxes are often intense. The net turbulent fluxes contribute significantly to the SEB. The surface-layer turbulence production is probably not at equilibrium with dissipation because of interactions of large-scale orographic disturbances with the flow when the forcing is strong or low-frequency oscillations of the katabatic flow when the forcing is weak. In weak forcing when TKE is low, all turbulent fluxes calculation methods provide similar fluxes. In strong forcing when TKE is large, the choice of roughness lengths impacts strongly the net turbulent fluxes from the profile method fluxes and their uncertainties. However, the uncertainty on the total SEB remains too high with regard to the net observed melt to be able to recommend one turbulent flux calculation method over another.

Numerical study on effect of urban heating on local climate during calm inter-monsoon period in greater Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model is used to study the effect of urban heating on the local climate of the largest urban agglomeration of Malaysia, Greater Kuala Lumpur (GKL) during a period of weak synoptic forcing. Urbanization has induced a modelled daily mean urban heat island (UHI) intensity of 0.9°C with a more severe heating (1.9°C) at night. The diurnal wind field of GKL is greatly affected by the circulation of land/sea breeze. The immense heat generated in the city accelerates the moisture-bearing sea breeze during the day and the induced vertical lifting simultaneously creates a conducive environment for convective precipitation on the upwind region. The urban heating effect and surface roughness weakens the evening flow circulations in the region and potentially inhibits dispersion of heat and atmospheric pollutants. Simulation of UHI phenomenon is especially sensitive to the characterization of urban grids through sensitivity evaluation of numerous land use maps and urban canopy model (UCM) settings. When compared to observations, the WRF model best captures the urban heating phenomenon with updated land use map and calibrated single layer UCM, while the simple bulk UCM setting performs better than the default complex single layer UCM.

Sensitivity analysis of WRF model PBL schemes in simulating boundary-layer variables in southern Italy: An experimental campaign

The sensitivity of boundary layer variables to five (two non-local and three local) planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parameterization schemes, available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale meteorological model, is evaluated in an experimental site in Calabria region (southern Italy), in an area characterized by a complex orography near the sea. Results of 1km×1km grid spacing simulations are compared with the data collected during a measurement campaign in summer 2009, considering hourly model outputs.Measurements from several instruments are taken into account for the performance evaluation: near surface variables (2m temperature and relative humidity, downward shortwave radiation, 10m wind speed and direction) from a surface station and a meteorological mast; vertical wind profiles from Lidar and Sodar; also, the aerosol backscattering from a ceilometer to estimate the PBL height.Results covering the whole measurement campaign show a cold and moist bias near the surface, mostly during daytime, for all schemes, as well as an overestimation of the downward shortwave radiation and wind speed. Wind speed and direction are also verified at vertical levels above the surface, where the model uncertainties are, usually, smaller than at the surface. A general anticlockwise rotation of the simulated flow with height is found at all levels. The mixing height is overestimated by all schemes and a possible role of the simulated sensible heat fluxes for this mismatching is investigated. On a single-case basis, significantly better results are obtained when the atmospheric conditions near the measurement site are dominated by synoptic forcing rather than by local circulations.From this study, it follows that the two first order non-local schemes, ACM2 and YSU, are the schemes with the best performance in representing parameters near the surface and in the boundary layer during the analyzed campaign.

Interannual rainfall variability and SOM-based circulation classification

Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) based classifications of synoptic circulation patterns are increasingly being used to interpret large-scale drivers of local climate variability, and as part of statistical downscaling methodologies. These applications rely on a basic premise of synoptic climatology, i.e. that local weather is conditioned by the large-scale circulation. While it is clear that this relationship holds in principle, the implications of its implementation through SOM-based classification, particularly at interannual and longer time scales, are not well recognized. Here we use a SOM to understand the interannual synoptic drivers of climate variability at two locations in the winter and summer rainfall regimes of South Africa. We quantify the portion of variance in seasonal rainfall totals that is explained by year to year differences in the synoptic circulation, as schematized by a SOM. We furthermore test how different spatial domain sizes and synoptic variables affect the ability of the SOM to capture the dominant synoptic drivers of interannual rainfall variability. Additionally, we identify systematic synoptic forcing that is not captured by the SOM classification. The results indicate that the frequency of synoptic states, as schematized by a relatively disaggregated SOM (7 × 9) of prognostic atmospheric variables, including specific humidity, air temperature and geostrophic winds, captures only 20–45% of interannual local rainfall variability, and that the residual variance contains a strong systematic component. Utilising a multivariate linear regression framework demonstrates that this residual variance can largely be explained using synoptic variables over a particular location; even though they are used in the development of the SOM their influence, however, diminishes with the size of the SOM spatial domain. The influence of the SOM domain size, the choice of SOM atmospheric variables and grid-point explanatory variables on the levels of explained variance, is consistent with the general understanding of the dominant processes and atmospheric variables that affect rainfall variability at a particular location.

The characteristics of weakly forced mountain‐to‐plain precipitation systems based on radar observations and high‐resolution reanalysis

AbstractThe metropolis of Beijing in China is located on a plain adjacent to high mountains to its northwest and the gulf of the Bohai Sea to its southeast. One of the most challenging forecast problems for Beijing is to predict whether thunderstorms initiating over the mountains will propagate to the adjacent plains and intensify. In this study, 18 warm season convective cases between 2008 and 2013 initiating on the mountains and intensifying on the plains under weak synoptic forcing were analyzed to gain an understanding of their characteristics. The statistical analysis was based on mosaic reflectivity data from six operational Doppler radars and reanalysis data produced by the Four‐Dimensional Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS). The analysis of the radar reflectivity data shows that convective precipitation strengthened on the plains at certain preferred locations. To investigate the environmental conditions favoring the strengthening of the mountain‐to‐plain convective systems, statistical diagnoses of the rapid‐update (12 min) 3 km reanalyses from VDRAS for the 18 cases were performed by computing the horizontal and temporal means of convective available potential energy, convective inhibition, vertical wind shear, and low‐level wind for the plain and mountain regions separately. The results were compared with those from a baseline representing the warm season average and from a set of null cases and found considerable differences in these fields between the three data sets. The mean distributions of VDRAS reanalysis fields were also examined. The results suggest that the convergence between the low‐level outflows associated with cold pools and the south‐southeasterly environmental flows corresponds well with the preferred locations of convective intensification on the plains.

Classification of summertime synoptic patterns in Beijing and their associations with boundary layer structure affecting aerosol pollution

Abstract. Meteorological conditions within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) are closely governed by large-scale synoptic patterns and play important roles in air quality by directly and indirectly affecting the emission, transport, formation, and deposition of air pollutants. Partly due to the lack of long-term fine-resolution observations of the PBL, the relationships between synoptic patterns, PBL structure, and aerosol pollution in Beijing have not been well understood. This study applied the obliquely rotated principal component analysis in T-mode to classify the summertime synoptic conditions over Beijing using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis from 2011 to 2014, and investigated their relationships with PBL structure and aerosol pollution by combining numerical simulations, measurements of surface meteorological variables, fine-resolution soundings, the concentration of particles with diameters less than or equal to 2.5 µm, total cloud cover (CLD), and reanalysis data. Among the seven identified synoptic patterns, three types accounted for 67 % of the total number of cases studied and were associated with heavy aerosol pollution events. These particular synoptic patterns were characterized by high-pressure systems located to the east or southeast of Beijing at the 925 hPa level, which blocked the air flow seaward, and southerly PBL winds that brought in polluted air from the southern industrial zone. The horizontal transport of pollutants induced by the synoptic forcings may be the most important factor affecting the air quality of Beijing in summer. In the vertical dimension, these three synoptic patterns featured a relatively low boundary layer height (BLH) in the afternoon, accompanied by high CLD and southerly cold advection from the seas within the PBL. The high CLD reduced the solar radiation reaching the surface, and suppressed the thermal turbulence, leading to lower BLH. Besides, the numerical sensitive experiments show that cold advection induced by the large-scale synoptic forcing may have cooled the PBL, leading to an increase in near-surface stability and a decrease in the BLH in the afternoon. Moreover, when warm advection appeared simultaneously above the top level of the PBL, the thermal inversion layer capping the PBL may have been strengthened, resulting in the further suppression of PBL and thus the deterioration of aerosol pollution levels. This study has important implications for understanding the crucial roles that meteorological factors (at both synoptic and local scales) play in modulating and forecasting aerosol pollution in Beijing and its surrounding area.

Conditions Supporting Funnel Cloud Development in Alaska

The characteristics and climatology of funnel clouds in Alaska were examined using operational radiosondes, surface meteorological observations, and reanalysis data. Funnel clouds occurred under weak synoptic forcing between May and September between 11 am and 6 pm Alaska Daylight Time with a maximum occurrence in July. They occurred under Convective Available Potential Energy >500 J·kg-1 and strong low-level wind shear. Characteristic atmospheric profiles during funnel cloud events served to develop a retrieval algorithm based on similarity testing. Out of more than 129,000 soundings between 1971 and 2014, 2724, 442, and 744 profiles were similar to the profiles of observed funnel cloud events in the Interior, Alaska West Coast, and Anchorage regions. While the number of reported funnel clouds has increased since 2000, the frequency of synoptic situations favorable for such events has decreased.

Numerical Simulation of Sea Breeze Convergence over Antarctic Peninsula

The convergence zone induced by sea breeze systems over Antarctic Peninsula is analyzed for the summer season of 2013–2015. 59 days, selected by satellite images for the absence of major synoptic forcing, are simulated using the WRF model. Sea breeze convergence has been detected in 21 of these days, mostly during evening hours and under large-scale winds. Breeze events are associated with a cold anomaly at the peninsula with respect to the climatology. This condition favors the onset of the necessary horizontal thermal gradients to trigger the breeze circulation. At the same time, no anomaly of the average pressure at sea level is found, indicating that events are favored when the average synoptic flow is present. Case studies indicate that the convergence location over the peninsula is controlled by the synoptic wind. An average convergence over the peninsula happens from 14:00 to 22:30 UTC, with a maximum at 18:00 UTC. There is a strong potential temperature gradient between the surface of the peninsula and the sea, with the sea breeze circulation system extending up to 1.2 km or higher. The sensible heat flux reaches 80 W/m2at the top of mountains and 10 W/m2near the coast.

Identification and classification of storm surge events at Red Dog Dock, Alaska, 2004–2014

Powerful storms in the Bering and Chukchi Seas west of Alaska frequently bring high winds that drive positive and negative surge events (storm surges). Positive surge events can cause inundation of coastal regions, extending far inland in low-relief locations. A 10-year record (2004–2014) of water level data from Red Dog Dock located to the north of the Bering Strait on the Alaskan coast was analysed for observed severe surge events. A climatology of events was developed, in which event occurrences were grouped by temporal evolution of the event. The length of time (speed) it took for a given storm system to move over the region largely dictated the temporal evolution of the surge events. The mapped time series evolution of the measured storm surge was grouped into four distinct surge event types. The primary synoptic control on these events is the orientation of the pressure gradient caused by the passage of low-pressure systems. The orientation of the pressure gradient, and therefore dominant wind direction, determine the magnitude, duration, and positive or negative storm surge inundation. The climatology resulted in 44 observed events—21 positive, 23 negative—that tended to occur during the months of November, December, and January. It was also noted that surges also regularly occurred when sea-ice cover was present. The primary synoptic forcing mechanism for positive surges was an extra-tropical cyclone positioned over the North Bering Sea/Chukotka Peninsula area, and for negative surges, an extra-tropical cyclone positioned over the Alaska Peninsula/western Gulf of Alaska.

The evolution and sensitivity of katabatic flow dynamics to external influences through the evening transition

Data collected over an arid shallow slope (2–4°) during the Mountain Terrain Atmospheric Modeling and Observations (MATERHORN) Program are used to study the katabatic structure and onset of katabatic flow through the evening transition. An unprecedented suite of instrumentation, including a transect of five turbulence towers with 29 sonic anemometers, is used for the investigation. Fifteen transition periods with well‐defined katabatic flow and relatively little synoptic forcing are used in the study. The katabatic onset, jet velocity and jet height all show a large degree of interdiurnal and intersite variance. The slope‐aligned budgets of momentum and potential temperature are used to define time‐scales that describe the evolution of the katabatic flow. Composite wind velocity time series are used to show that ≈30 min elapses from the time when the katabatic flow initializes at 0.5 m to the point of initialization at 20 m. A simple katabatic model utilizing surface energy‐budget modelling is developed and used to model the interdiurnal katabatic variance. Finally, uni‐ and multi‐variate statistical analyses are used to diagnose the influence of specific external variables. Valley wind speed, turbulence structure, soil moisture, and shadow front speed are all found to influence the katabatic dynamics to varying degrees.

Influence of Green Roofs on Early Morning Mixing Layer Depths in Mexico City

An urbanized version of MM5 (uMM5) was used at a 500 m horizontal grid-resolution to study effects on morning urban mixing depths and near roof-top stability from use of extensive green roofs in Mexico City, which is characterized by large Bowen ratios and high building storages. The model uses urban-morphology data, while building hydrothermal uMM5 input parameters were obtained from measurements over green and nearby conventional roofs. Evaluation of uMM5 predicted values against rooftop and planetary boundary layer (PBL) observations from extensive field measurement campaigns showed that the model performed reasonably well. Additional simulations were carried assuming that the roofs in entire urban neighborhoods were greened. Predicted mixing depths from these simulations, along with observed air pollution concentrations, were then used in a simple box model to evaluate potential green roof impacts on concentration. Results showed that green roofs produced an early morning (7–10 LST) cooling of up to 1.2 °C at rooftop levels, which reduced mixing depths during that period. Effects were greater on a day with weak synoptic forcing that on one 48 h later with strong synoptic forcing. The mixing-depth decreases produced increased box-model pollutant concentrations. While the green roofs did not elevate the observed concentrations of CO, SO2, and NO2 above World Health Organization (WHO) health standards, they did increase PM10, values (which were already above its standard) by as much as 8% from 7 to 9 LST, when local populations are normally exposed to peak concentrations. This study has applications in the analyses of building energy efficiency.

Mesoscale and Synoptic Environment in Three Orographically Enhanced Rain Events on the Coast of Santa Catarina (Brazil)

Abstract In this study three cases of extreme rainfall events are analyzed in Florianopolis, Santa Catarina (SC), on Brazil’s coast, lying between the mountains and the South Atlantic Ocean in southeastern South America. The largest rainfall totals, 200–300 mm in 12–24 h, resulted in flash floods. ECMWF 6-hourly 1.5° × 1.5° data were used to determine the synoptic fields and quasigeostrophic forcing, along with observational data from local networks, for subsynoptic analyses. In case C1, during May 2010, there was a frontal passage. In C2 and C3 (January 2008 and February 1979, respectively) the coastline separated a ridge over the continent from a trough over the sea at the surface, with an atmosphere of low baroclinicity predominating at 500 hPa. All three events were characterized by postfrontal conditions; the presence of an anticyclone over the sea, centered at 35°–40°S; and slow-moving or quasi-stationary midlevel cyclones over the continent, at 27 °S. The circulation generated in the cyclone resulted in strong (10 m s−1) and persistent low-level east-northeast winds along the coast of SC, favoring the influx of heat and humidity on days with heavy rain. The upward motion at 850 hPa was concentrated over the affected areas and stronger than that at 500 hPa. Even so, the moist air that reached the mountain in a conditionally unstable environment rose only to middle levels. The features presented were similar to those observed for orographic rain events in Europe and the United States.

A Validation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System Using Self-Organizing Maps and High-Density Observations from SNOWWEB

This study compares high-resolution output (1.1-km horizontal grid length) from twice-daily forecasts produced by the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) with a dense observational network east of Ross Island. Covering 10 000 km2, 15 SNOWWEB stations significantly increased the number of observation stations in the area to 19 during the 2014–15 austral summer. Collocated “virtual stations” created from AMPS output are combined with observations, producing a single dataset of zonal and meridional wind components used to train a self-organizing map (SOM). The resulting SOM is used to individually classify the observational and AMPS datasets, producing a time series of classifications for each dataset directly comparable to the other. Analysis of class composites shows two dominant weather patterns: low but directionally variable winds and high but directionally constant winds linked to the Ross Ice Shelf airstream (RAS). During RAS events the AMPS and SNOWWEB data displayed good temporal class alignment with good surface wind correlation. SOM analysis shows that AMPS did not accurately forecast surface-level wind speed or direction during light wind conditions where synoptic forcing was weak; however, it was able to forecast the low wind period occurrence accurately. Coggins’s regimes provide synoptic-scale context and show a reduced synoptic pressure gradient during these classes, increasing reliance on the ability of Polar WRF to resolve mesoscale dynamics. Available initialization data have insufficient resolution for the region’s complex topography, which likely impacts performance. The SOM analysis methods used are shown to be effective for model validation and are widely applicable.

Synoptic forcing of wind relaxations at Pt. Conception, California

AbstractOver the California Current upwelling system in summer, the prevailing upwelling‐favorable winds episodically weaken (relax) or reverse direction for a few days. Near Pt. Conception, California, the wind usually does not reverse, but wind relaxation allows poleward oceanic coastal flow with ecological consequences. To determine the offshore extent and synoptic forcing of these wind relaxations, we formed composite averages of wind stress from the QuikSCAT satellite and atmospheric pressure from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) using 67 wind relaxations during summer 2000–2009. Wind relaxations at Pt. Conception are the third stage of an event sequence that repeatedly affects the west coast of North America in summer. First, 5–7 days before the wind weakens near Pt. Conception, the wind weakens or reverses off Oregon and northern California. Second, the upwelling‐favorable wind intensifies along central California. Third, the wind relaxes at Pt. Conception, and the area of weakened winds extends poleward to northern California over 3–5 days. The NARR underestimates the wind stress within ∼200 km of coastal capes by a factor of 2. Wind relaxations at Pt. Conception are caused by offshore extension of the desert heat low. This synoptic forcing is related to event cycles that cause wind reversal as in Halliwell and Allen (1987) and Mass and Bond (1996), but includes weaker events. The wind relaxations extend ∼600 km offshore, similarly to the California‐scale hydraulic expansion fan shaping the prevailing winds, and ∼1000 km alongshore, limited by an opposing pressure gradient force at Cape Mendocino.

Physically Based Stochastic Perturbations (PSP) in the Boundary Layer to Represent Uncertainty in Convective Initiation

Abstract Stochastic perturbations allow for the representation of small-scale variability due to unresolved physical processes. However, the properties of this variability depend on model resolution and weather regime. A physically based method is presented for introducing stochastic perturbations into kilometer-scale atmospheric models that explicitly account for these dependencies. The amplitude of the perturbations is based on information obtained from the model’s subgrid turbulence parameterization, while the spatial and temporal correlations are based on physical length and time scales of the turbulent motions. The stochastic perturbations lead to triggering of additional convective cells and improved precipitation amounts in simulations of two days with weak synoptic forcing of convection but different amounts of precipitation. The perturbations had little impact in a third case study, where precipitation was mainly associated with a cold front. In contrast, an unphysical version of the scheme with constant perturbation amplitude performed poorly since there was no perturbation amplitude that would give improved amounts of precipitation during the day without generating spurious convection at other times.

블로킹에 의한 2014년 2월 동해안 지방 폭설 분석

This study investigated the cause of the heavy snowfall that occurred in the East Coast of Korea from 6 February to 14 February 2014. The synoptic conditions were analyzed using blocking index, equivalent potential temperature, potential vorticity, maritime temperature difference, temperature advection, and ground convergence. During the case period, a large blocking pattern developed over the Western Pacific causing the flow to be stagnant, and there was a North-South oriented High-to-Low pressure system over the Korean Peninsula because of this arrangement. The case period was divided into three parts based on the synoptic forcing that was responsible for the heavy snowfall; detailed analyses were conducted for the first and last period. In the first period, a heavy snowfall occurred over the entire Korean Peninsula due to strong updrafts from baroclinic instability and a low pressure caused by potential vorticity located at the mid-troposphere. In the lower atmosphere, a North-South oriented High-to-Low pressure system over the Eastern Korea intensified the easterly airflow and created a convergence zone near the ground which strengthened the upslope effect of the Taebaek Mountain range with a cumulative fresh snowfall amount of 41 cm in the East Coast region. In the last period, the cold air nestled in the Maritime Province of Siberia and Manchuria strengthened much more than that in the first half and extended to the East Sea. The temperature difference between the 850 hPa air and the SST was large and convective clouds developed over the sea. The highest cumulative fresh snow amount of 39.7 cm was recorded in the coastal area during this period. During the entire period, vertically oriented equivalent potential temperature showed neutral stability layer that helped the cloud formation and development in the East Coast. The 2014 heavy snowfall case over the East Coast provinces of Korea were due to: 1) stagnation of the system by blocking pattern, 2) the dynamic effect of mid-level potential vorticity of 1.6 PVU, 3) the easterly air flow from North-South oriented High-to-Low pressure system, 4) the existence of vertically oriented neutral stable layer, and 5) the expansion of strong cold air into the East Sea which created a large temperature difference between the air and the ocean.

Evaluation of the Plant–Craig stochastic convection scheme (v2.0) in the ensemble forecasting system MOGREPS-R (24 km) based on the Unified Model (v7.3)

Abstract. The Plant–Craig stochastic convection parameterization (version 2.0) is implemented in the Met Office Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-R) and is assessed in comparison with the standard convection scheme with a simple stochastic scheme only, from random parameter variation. A set of 34 ensemble forecasts, each with 24 members, is considered, over the month of July 2009. Deterministic and probabilistic measures of the precipitation forecasts are assessed. The Plant–Craig parameterization is found to improve probabilistic forecast measures, particularly the results for lower precipitation thresholds. The impact on deterministic forecasts at the grid scale is neutral, although the Plant–Craig scheme does deliver improvements when forecasts are made over larger areas. The improvements found are greater in conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, for which convective precipitation is likely to be less predictable.

The Relevance of Surface Roughness Data Qualities in Diagnostic Modeling of Wind Velocity in Complex Terrain: A Case Study from the \u015anie\u017cnik Massif (SW Poland)

Numerical modeling of wind velocity above complex terrain has become a subject of numerous contemporary studies. Regardless of the methodical approach (dynamic or diagnostic), it can be observed that information about surface roughness is indispensable to achieve realistic results. In this context, the current state of GIS and remote sensing development allows access to a number of datasets providing information about various properties of land coverage in a broad spectrum of spatial resolution. Hence, the quality of roughness information may vary depending on the properties of primary land coverage data. As a consequence, the results of the wind velocity modeling are affected by the accuracy and spatial resolution of roughness data. This paper describes further attempts to model wind velocity using the following sources of roughness information: LiDAR data (Digital Surface Model and Digital Terrain Model), database of topographical objects (BDOT10k) and both raster and vector versions of Corine Land Cover 2006 (CLC). The modeling was conducted in WindStation 4.0.2 software which is based on the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) diagnostic solver Canyon. Presented experiment concerns three episodes of relatively strong and constant synoptic forcing: 26 November 2011, 25 May 2012 and 26 May 2012. The modeling was performed in the spatial resolution of 50 and 100 m. Input anemological data were collected during field measurements while the atmosphere boundary layer parameters were derived from the meteorological stations closest to the study area. The model’s performance was verified using leave-one-out cross-validation and calculation of error indices such as bias error, root mean square error and index of wind speed. Thus, it was possible to compare results of using roughness datasets of different type and resolution. The study demonstrates that the use of LiDAR-based roughness data may result in an improvement of the model’s performance in 100 and 50 m resolution, comparing to CLC and BDOT10k. Furthermore, a slight improvement of these results can be accomplished if the LiDAR-based roughness calculation process includes the variable of prevailing wind direction. Qualities of both CLC and BDOT10k raw datasets (imposed land coverage classes, necessity of the roughness classes assignment) induce relatively high values of the modeled velocity error indices. Hence, these and other similar datasets need to be carefully analyzed (e.g. compared with aerial or satellite imagery) before they are used in the process of roughness length parameterization.