Success Of New Parties Research Articles

Building of Brazilian Party System

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the phenomenon of the formation and success of new parties in the period of redemocratization and the return of Brazilian multipartyism (1979-2018). Although the phenomenon is recurrent in Brazil, few studies have looked more directly at the subject in Brazil. What are the determinants of the ongoing formation of new parties? Our hypotheses are that the permissiveness of the electoral system loses effect when actors adapt to it and that factors endogenous to political competition increase the likelihood of new parties emerging. We use previous methodologies and conceptualize new parties as those that are organizationally new (obtain a new registration) and win at least one seat in the Chamber of Deputies. We divided the parties into contestation or coaptation parties to assess the impact of institutional and economic variables on them. Our results indicate that parties that are totally "outside the system" (those of contestation) have more difficulty in becoming competitive, demonstrating that the phenomenon of the appearance of new acronyms is more linked to a strategic reorganization of the elites than to a demand from voters.

Przywództwo w nowych partiach politycznych w Polsce i jego znaczenie dla przekroczenia progu reprezentacji oraz instytucjonalizacji partii

LEADERSHIP IN NEW POLITICAL PARTIES IN POLAND AND ITS IMPORTANCE FOR OVERCOMING THE THRESHOLD OF PARTY REPRESENTATION AND FOR PARTY INSTITUTIONALIZATION After the period of relative stabilization of the Polish party system at the parliamentary level in the first decade of the 21st century, changes related to the entry of new parties on the political scene took place in the second one. While in 2007 only four established parties (PO, PiS, SLD and PSL) got seats in the parliament, and the party system at the parliamentary level was described as “concreted”. In subsequent elections of 2011, 2015, 2019, newly created parties managed to overcome the threshold of party representation. What they have in common is that they were founded shortly before the election by recognizable leaders and immediately achieved election success, which they were not able to repeat in subsequent elections, they lost their importance and were replaced by newer parties. The aim of the article is to define what role the leader plays in achieving electoral success of new parties and what is the importance of leadership for the party’s survival and further election success. These issues are considered in the context of changing the organizational model and the concepts of party institutionalization.

Transformation of the party-political system of Spain in the post-crisis period (2014—2019)

The author considers the transformation of the party system in Spain as a process that consists of several phases that differ from each other in the quantity and quality of socio-political divisions, goals and strategies of political parties. The author relies on data from electoral statistics, sociological surveys, quantitative indicators of party systems and analysis of factual material. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the periodization of the transformation process and the calculation of quantitative indicators based on the results of the parliamentary elections. At the first stage, the emergence and success of new parties is seen as a response to a protracted economic crisis, a crisis of representation, and also as a reaction to the inconsistency of the party system with the more complex structure of society. The second stage is characterized by centripetal tendencies designed to reduce the atomization of the existing system. Separately, there is Catalonia, which has not yet been able to move to the second stage due to conflicts that are tearing society apart. The author comes to the conclusion that the process of change will continue until the system takes a sustainable and stable form.

All Different, Yet All the Same? The Place of New Parties in Lithuanian Party System

One of the prominent feature of the Lithuanian party system is constant success of new parties. Based on political parties’ programmatic stances, this article investigates the place of these new parties in the Lithuanian party system. Using three different metrics (place in two-dimensional political spectrum, programmatic differences, nicheness), article aims at locating new parties in the party system as well as finding common denominators in party programmatic stances, which could let to assign new parties to the specific type of political parties. Analysis reveals that even though one cannot say, that all new parties are totally the same, there are common features that defines these parties (central position in the political spectrum, lack of clear programmatic niche, stressing common political issue, which separates them from traditional parties).

Electoral Rules and New Parties: Evidence from a Quasi‐experimental Design

Electoral rules are a crucial institutional factor shaping the entry and success of new parties. However, testing how they affect voting behavior is problematic when using observational data in cross-national studies. As district magnitude is usually correlated with politically salient features affecting the likelihood of voting for new (and small) parties, the latent support of small parties differs across electoral systems. Using a quasi-experimental design in Spain focused on the district viability of a new party,Vox, in two elections held within 196 days, I provide a more robust estimate of the impact of electoral systems on the success of new parties. Strong evidence that the electoral system makes a difference for new parties has been identified: strategic considerations found in the districts whereVoxwas not successful prevented a significant number of voters from supporting the party.

New Parties, Fractionalization, and the Increasing Duration of Government Formation Processes in the EU Member States

In the last decade, several new parties gained representation in the EU member countries, contributing to additional polarization and fragmentation. This also affected the transfer of power from one government to the next, a period that is sometimes characterized by long negotiations where party leaders bargain over the composition and policy objectives of a new cabinet. Analyzing data for the 28 EU countries, this article shows that since 2008 the time for government formation has noticeably increased in most of the EU countries and, in line with the relevant literature, the index of fractionalization (effective number of parliamentary parties) is its best predictor. We did not find, however, a significant correlation between the electoral success of new parties and increases in the duration of cabinet bargaining.Related ArticlesKostadinova, Tatiana, and Petia Kostadinova. 2016. “Party Promises, Voter Understanding, and Mandate Responsiveness in East European Politics.” Politics & Policy 44 (1): 5‐34. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12145Millard, Frances. 2009. “Poland: Parties without a Party System, 1991‐2008.” Politics & Policy 37 (4): 781‐798. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2009.00198.xPasquino, Gianfranco. 2014. “Italy: The Triumph of Personalist Parties.” Politics & Policy 42 (4): 548‐566. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12079

The Great Recession and new class voting in Iceland

Conventional wisdom suggests that occupational class plays a limited role in explaining vote choice in Iceland. In this paper, we argue that the death of class in Icelandic politics may be premature and that it still plays a role in structuring political preferences and party choice. While the importance of the traditional class cleavage may have declined to the point of irrelevance, we suggest that there is a new type of class voting in Iceland, containing both a vertical and a horizontal component. Furthermore, we argue that the Great Recession played a critical role in increasing the strength of class voting around this new class schema, both because of the conflict around economic issues it generated, but also because of its facilitation of the formation and success of new parties. We test our main hypotheses using multinomial logistic regression on data from the Icelandic National Election Study from 1999 to 2016 and apply a modified measure of cleavage strength, which we refer to as “Full Kappa”. Our results suggest that class voting is alive and well in Iceland and that its strength has increased following the Great Recession.

Party collapse and new party entry

The entry and success of new parties has become a regular event in modern democracies. From the emergence of green to protest parties, new movements have entered the electoral arena. This article addresses one of the less studied aspects of new parties: the dynamic process of party exit and entry into politics. The article argues that changes to the party system, produced by the collapse of a political party, can lead to the successful entrance of new parties in the next election. The premise is that one party’s loss is a future one’s gain. The empirical results provide strong evidence that the size of the policy space created by a party collapse has a substantial impact on the level of new party’s success.

2016 METŲ SEIMO RINKIMŲ IŠŠŪKIS PARTINEI SISTEMAI IR POLITOLOGAMS: KAIP NUMATYTI ŽEMĖS DREBĖJIMĄ?

Šiuo straipsniu pradedama akademinė diskusija dėl to, ką Lietuvos partinei sistemai reiškė 2016 m. Seimo rinkimai. Atnaujinant rinkimų kaitu­mo rodiklius ir partijų konkurencinės erdvės žemėlapį (pagal rinkėjų verti­nimus) teigiama: stabilizacija, nurodoma kalbant apie 2012 m. Seimo rinki­mus, buvo labai santykinė (Vakarų politologai tikriausiai jos neįžvelgtų) ir, įvertinant visą 1992–2016 m. laikotarpį, panašesnė į išimtį. Taigi, 2016 m. rinkimai tiesiog grąžino nestabilią Lietuvos partinę sistemą į savas vėžes – nepaisant gana apgaulingos mažos naujų partijų sėkmės, matyti, kad padidė­jo tiek bendras, tiek išorinis (parodantis partinės sistemos silpnumą) nestabi­lumas. Konkurencinėje erdvėje išryškėjusios dvi dimensijos vėl meta iššūkį Lietuvos tradicinių partijų gebėjimui integruoti naujokus. Akivaizdu, kad yra niša ir kartu poreikis toliau tirti rinkėjų elgesį, tad antroje straipsnio dalyje aptariami esminiai klausimai, kuriuos rinkimų politologijai (politinei socio­logijai) pateikia 2016 m. Seimo rinkimai: rinkėjų kaitumo individo lygmeniu logika, (besikeičiantis?) rinkimų sistemos vaidmuo, partijų ir visuomenės (ne)susikalbėjimas, rinkimų kampanijos įtaka rinkimų rezultatui. Esant tiek nežinomųjų, siūloma kritiškai žiūrėti į galimybes prognozuoti rinkimų rezul­tatus ir vedama paralelė tarp politologų ir seismologų: smarkūs žemės dre­bėjimai, kaip ir tokie rinkimai, sunkiai numatomi iš anksto. Kaip sprendžiant trijų kūnų problemą, nestabilios sąveikos tarp pasiūlos, paklausos ir rinkimų sistemos veda į neprognozuojamą rinkimų rezultatą. Tačiau būtent dėl to ir reikia toliau tęsti tyrimus.

Career Backgrounds, Professional Network and Party Cohesion: The Success of ANO in the Czech Republic

The volatile and unstable party systems in East Central Europe are associated with the emergence of new parties. However, some such new parties survive and become part of the party system they entered while other newcomers fade away even after they record major electoral success or gain government participation. How can we explain the contrasting fortunes of new parties? What explains their persistence and organizational survival? In this paper, we try to find the answers to these questions by linking the organizational success of new parties to the composition of their elites. We suggest that the similarity in professional and career backgrounds contributes to parties’ organizational success by increasing party cohesion, especially at the level of party leadership. We demonstrate our arguments on three new Czech parties – Public A airs (VV), Dawn of Direct Democracy (Dawn) and ANO – with contrasting political and organizational fortunes. Using data on elites’ career and political pasts we show that, unlike ANO, VV and Dawn have comparatively more heterogeneous elite circles which, we suggest, make them more vulnerable to internal conflicts.

Breaking the cartel: the geography of the electoral support of new parties in Italy and Spain

The factors explaining the emergence and electoral success of new parties have been investigated extensively on a cross-national basis, but little is known about why their vote shares differ within a specific country at any given time. This article is an attempt to fill this gap by examining the determinants of electoral support of Podemos and Movimento 5 Stelle across Spanish and Italian municipalities. Using empirical evidence from the 2014 European Parliament elections, we show that a bad economic situation at the local level increases the vote shares of these parties. We also demonstrate that these parties perform better in towns where abstention rates have previously increased, and the population is comparatively younger, and the possible existence of interaction effects between all these factors.

Extra- and within-system electoral volatility

We analyze the remarkable differences in the electoral success of new parties and compare the determinants of electoral volatility attributable to new versus established parties. We base our findings on an original data set of total volatility, extra-system volatility, and within-system volatility for 67 democratic countries across all regions of the world since 1945. The article makes three contributions. First, we show that it is important to distinguish between electoral volatility that represents vote shifts among established parties (within-system volatility) and shifts to new parties (extra-system volatility). Second, we provide descriptive information about total, within-system, and extra-system volatility for 67 countries. Third, we analyze the determinants of volatility. Our results show that the causes of within- and extra-system volatility differ markedly. In contrast to Powell and Tucker, for our broader range of countries and longer time period, there are several statistically robust positive findings.

El peso de los nuevos partidos en el sistema de partidos colombiano. 1986-2010

En este artículo se documenta cómo ha evolucionadodurante el periodo 1986-2010 la volatilidadelectoral colombiana, en las elecciones de Senado,con énfasis en el peso que ejercen sobre esavolatilidad tanto el surgimiento de los partidosnuevos (creados en el periodo mencionado),como el debilitamiento de los partidos tradicionales.Se ofrece una interpretación de los hallazgosa la luz de la literatura internacional sobre eltema. La fuente básica de datos electorales es laRegistraduría Nacional del Estado Civil.

Methodological Issues in the Study of New Parties’ Entry and Electoral Success

Studies of the emergence and electoral success of new parties frequently suffer from conceptual and methodological flaws: effects of electoral institutions that primarily operate at the level of the constituencies are specified at the national level; central explanatory variables such as electoral demands and competitors’ responses are measured with crude proxies; the interplay of formation and success is overlooked; and empirical models neglect the point that the underlying data may exhibit dependencies both in space and time. In this article, we highlight these problems and offer some potential solutions using the Swiss Green Party (GPS) as an empirical case.

Party Systems in the Making: The Emergence and Success of New Parties in New Democracies

Why do new parties continue emerging and attracting votes in new democracies? Does the duration of the democratic regime facilitate party system stabilization? With original data on legislative elections in fifteen East European countries (1990–2004), this article shows that new party entry is more likely when the cost of entry is low, the benefit of office is high and the perceived level of electoral viability is high. Support for new parties is influenced by the extent of disappointment with existing parties. Further, while the number of new parties decreases gradually as democracies age, the support for new entrants follows no clear unidirectional pattern across time.

Altering Party Systems: Strategic Behavior and the Emergence of New Political Parties in Western Democracies. By Simon Hug. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2001. 216p. $47.50

The questions of when and why new political parties decide to form and contest elections in established democracies are not new, but they have grown in importance over the last two decades. The rise of postmaterialist and nationalist parties across Western Europe has led to an increased focus on the causal factors involved in the formation and electoral success of new parties. In this new book, Simon Hug attempts to move beyond existing studies to create generalizable hypotheses capable of predicting when we should expect these phenomena to occur. It is innovative both in terms of its approach, which is explicitly game-theoretic, and in its goal to move toward a truly generalizable theory of new party formation (and, to some degree, success). Although there are some theoretical as well as empirical weaknesses in the work, Hug has made a laudable effort in his attempts to move the analysis of new party development beyond the bulk of existing descriptive case or class studies.

Studying the Electoral Success of New Political Parties

Studies of new political parties often attempt to explain their electoral success. Methodological problems linked to the notion of selection bias, however, considerably hamper the results of such studies. This note offers a discussion of these biases, which are due to the fact that new political parties are a `self-selected' sample. An empirical example studying the impact of rules regulating the access to ballots in national elections in 21 western democracies illustrates this problem. Taking into account the formation process when studying the success of new parties, however, allows for a correction. Similar solutions exist for other research designs employed to study the success of new parties.

Institutional Arrangements and the Success of New Parties in Old Democracies

Institutional Arrangements and the Success of New Parties in Old Democracies

Formation and Success of New Parties

After describing the universe of 233 new parties formed in 19 West European and Anglo-American democracies from 1960 through 1980, the authors use data on those parties to address several hypotheses concerning system-level causes and conditions for new party formation and electoral success. It is found that although the propensi ty for forming new parties is not associated with structural variables, new party suc cess is related to the type of electoral system.

Electoral Formulae and the Number of Parties

Previous articleNext article No AccessResearch NotesElectoral Formulae and the Number of PartiesJohn K. WildgenJohn K. Wildgen Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUS Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail SectionsMoreDetailsFiguresReferencesCited by The Journal of Politics Volume 34, Number 3Aug., 1972 Sponsored by the Southern Political Science Association Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.2307/2129290 Views: 6Total views on this site Citations: 6Citations are reported from Crossref Copyright 1972 Southern Political Science AssociationPDF download Crossref reports the following articles citing this article:KENNETH BENOIT District magnitude, electoral formula, and the number of parties, European Journal of Political Research 39, no.22 (Mar 2001): 203–224.https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.00575BRIAN J. GAINES Duverger's Law and the Meaning of Canadian Exceptionalism, Comparative Political Studies 32, no.77 (Jun 2016): 835–861.https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414099032007004Robert Harmel, John D. Robertson Formation and Success of New Parties, International Political Science Review 6, no.44 (Oct 1985): 501–523.https://doi.org/10.1177/019251218500600408Charles D. Hadley Support For The Return To Closed Primary Elections: Louisiana Party Professionals On The Open Elections System, Southeastern Political Review 13, no.22 (Nov 2008): 167–177.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-1346.1985.tb00018.xB. C. Koh The 1985 Parliamentary Election in South Korea, Asian Survey 25, no.99 (Sep 1985): 883–897.https://doi.org/10.2307/2644417Michael Aiken Urban Social Structure and Political Competition, Urban Affairs Quarterly 11, no.11 (Aug 2016): 82–116.https://doi.org/10.1177/107808747501100105