Abstract
Electoral rules are a crucial institutional factor shaping the entry and success of new parties. However, testing how they affect voting behavior is problematic when using observational data in cross-national studies. As district magnitude is usually correlated with politically salient features affecting the likelihood of voting for new (and small) parties, the latent support of small parties differs across electoral systems. Using a quasi-experimental design in Spain focused on the district viability of a new party,Vox, in two elections held within 196 days, I provide a more robust estimate of the impact of electoral systems on the success of new parties. Strong evidence that the electoral system makes a difference for new parties has been identified: strategic considerations found in the districts whereVoxwas not successful prevented a significant number of voters from supporting the party.
Highlights
When explaining how voters come to support new political parties, in particular far-right parties, electoral rules are expected to play a crucial role
Magnitude is expected to be correlated with politically salient features affecting the likelihood of voting for new parties that are not possible to control for when using observational data
As political features correlated with magnitude are very difficult to control in cross-national studies, the latent support of new parties is not similar across countries and the possibility that omitted variables are responsible for the reported effect of electoral permissiveness result is still there
Summary
When explaining how voters come to support new (and small) political parties, in particular far-right parties, electoral rules are expected to play a crucial role. Magnitude is expected to be correlated with politically salient features affecting the likelihood of voting for new parties (e.g., urbanization or demographics such employment or elderly population) that are not possible to control for when using observational data. This correlation leads to biased and inconsistent estimates of how electoral systems affect the success of new parties because the average or median district magnitude captures additional mechanisms apart from permissiveness. If the electoral system makes a difference to the success of new parties, we should observe that Vox obtained more support in the former group of districts than in the latter This is exactly the pattern that emerged in the empirical analysis. Individual-level evidence from the November post-election survey strongly supports the role of the electoral system
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