Substitution Policy Research Articles

Modern trends in the issues of economic security of Russia in the context of import substitution policy

Modern trends in the issues of economic security of Russia in the context of import substitution policy

“Social Cancer” in a Dualistic World: Purpose, Economy, and Policy of Substitution in Sustainable Energy Transition in Japan

“Social Cancer” in a Dualistic World: Purpose, Economy, and Policy of Substitution in Sustainable Energy Transition in Japan

Problems and prospects for the development of the Crimean shipbuilding industry for the Russian economy

Shipbuilding is one of the key industries both for the Crimean Peninsula, in particular, and for the Russian Federation, and is the most important structural component of the economy, since it involves enterprises of other industries in the economic turnover. The development of the shipbuilding economy for Russia is of strategic importance, since the industry not only makes it possible to generate export deliveries of high-quality and competitive products, thereby generating new cash flows to the state economy, but also has synergy with related industries, providing jobs for specialized specialists from other industries industry. Significant restrictions on the import of technology and equipment, as well as the policy of import substitution, which has been adopted in Russia since 2014, have become a certain incentive for the development of domestic industry, and, accordingly, its economy. Nevertheless, today it cannot be argued that the Russian industry has fully adapted to the conditions formed by the geopolitical situation, and its economy is efficient. The Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, which became part of Russia in the spring of 2014, are in the active stage of integration into the economy of our state. Industry, as one of the key drivers of regional development, is extremely important for the dynamic development of the region's economy. Taking into account the specifics of the geographical location of the Crimean Peninsula, shipbuilding has historically been its key sector of the economy. The sanctions regime, under which the Russian economy has been developing since 2014, imposes a number of restrictions on the Crimean industry, which to a certain extent slows down economic development. Taking into account the current external economic and geopolitical circumstances, the authors present the results of a study of the problems and prospects for the economic development of the Crimean shipbuilding industry, and consider the example of the More shipbuilding plant. Based on the results of the analysis, a conclusion and recommendation for the further development of the shipbuilding economy were formulated.

Инновационные точки роста обрабатывающей промышленности региона

The withdrawal of foreign companies from the Russian market has led to the emergence of market niches that can be occupied by domestic manufacturers. Russia’s involvement in global value chains has led to a serious dependence on products from abroad and, as a result, to the degradation of a number of technological industries. With the strengthening of Western sanctions, the prompt replacement of goods that have ceased to be supplied to the country is a priority task for the executive authorities. The policy of import substitution, the implementation of which began in 2014, has been more successful in ensuring the national food security of the country, while high-tech industries are still critically dependent on imported equipment and technologies. Therefore, the identification of points of innovative growth in the regions allows us to identify manufacturing industries whose support will lead to leveling the negative consequences of the shortage of certain products in the domestic market. Until 2022, imports of technologically complex goods from the EU, the USA, and other countries included in the list of “unfriendly” occupied a significant share in the foreign trade of most regions. The regions of the Northwestern Federal District are industrially developed, and the problem of obsolescence of fixed assets was solved mainly through cooperation with foreign companies. Thus, the identification of promising industries capable of producing analogues of these goods is an urgent task for research. The aim of the study is to identify innovative points of growth of the manufacturing industry in the economy of the regions of the Northwestern Federal District of Russia. The article analyzes the structure of the economy of the regions in the District, their industry specialization, including the production of innovative products. The main methods of solving problems in the work are the use of the specialization coefficient for the average number of employees, the coefficient of specialization in the production of innovative products, and the coefficient of use of advanced production technologies. After comparing the indicators of specialization by the number of employees and the production of innovative products, the industries, whose activation can become a driver of the region’s economic growth in the near future, are identified. The region’s specialization in the production of innovative products determines the long-term prospects for its development for stable socio-economic development. In this regard, recommendations are developed for executive authorities to support certain types of economic activity, to activate the transition to the production of products with higher added value and to simplify the procedures for commercialization of the developed technologies. The results of the study are useful for the executive authorities of the region and scientists researching regional development problems.

ОЦЕНКА ВЗАИМОСВЯЗИ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОГО ПРОИЗВОДСТВА И ЭКОЛОГИЧЕСКОГО ПРОФИЛЯ РЕГИОНА

The relevance of the research is conditioned by the necessity to strengthen the control over the state of ecological space of regions, which is caused by the significant growth of the load on the environment of the regions, the priority of which is industrial growth within the framework of following the state policy of import substitution in the conditions of strict sanctions restrictions of the Western countries. In this connection the task of formation of ecological profile of the region and analysis of interrelation between the growth of industrial production and environmental load of the region is of particular urgency and practical importance. To solve this problem, in this article the author investigates the processes of the regional spatial and sectoral structure development in terms of correlation between the dynamics of industrial production and the changes of the regional ecological profile (using the example of the Perm Region), in order to identify and assess the relationship between the dynamics of industrial production and the changes in the ecological profile of the region. The subject of the study is the relationship between the dynamics of industrial production and changes in the ecological profile of the region. The goal of the study is to establish and assess the relationship between the dynamics of industrial production and changes in the ecological profile of the region. The ecological profile of the region in the framework of this study is understood as a system of indicators, which characterize the ecological situation on the territory of the region and make it possible to assess the ecological burden on the environment of the region. The formation of the system of indicators, constituting the ecological profile of the region, will allow to carry out an objective analysis of the technogenic load on the ecological system of the region. Thus, the formation of the system of indicators seems to be the primary task in achieving the goal of the study. Research objectives are the following: - to perform a theoretical review of scientific research in the field of analysis and assessment of the environment state and environmental safety of industrial regions; - to consider the existing methodological approaches to the assessment of the environmental component of the territories’ development and ratings of the regions’ environment state; - to form a system of indicators revealing the ecological profile of the region (on the example of the Perm Region); - to develop a methodology for assessing the dynamics of the region's environmental profile; - to identify and assess the relationship between the dynamics of industrial production and the ecological profile of the region. The following research methods have become the basis of the study: analysis, synthesis, synthesis, grouping, systematization and classification. To solve individual problems, methods of comparative and statistical analysis, tabular and graphical representation of data, organizational and economic modeling, integral and correlation analysis have been used. The materials of the study are the scientific works of leading Russian academic economists dealing with the problems of the impact of intensification of territorial development, including industrial complex on the environment of the regions, as well as the official statistical data of state statistics agencies and the results of studies of various rating agencies. In the article an author's definition of the concept of "ecological profile of the region" and a system of indicators is offered, which disclose its content and make it possible to conduct an objective analysis of the technogenic burden on the environment of the region. To establish and assess the relationship between the dynamics of industrial production and changes in the ecological profile of the region the authors have developed an author's methodology of the ecological profile state estimation which includes calculation of integral indices of positive and negative impact on the environment and evaluation of dependence of the calculated indices on the index of regional industrial production by correlation method. The proposed methodological approach has been approbated using the Perm Territory as an example and as a result direct correlation between intensification of industrial production and growth of environmental load expressed in deterioration of the region's ecological profile has been revealed. The results obtained confirm the determining role of industrial production in the ecological profile of the Perm Territory and the need to intensify the processes of ecologization of production in view of increasing pressure on the environment

РЕАЛИЗАЦИЯ ТОВАРНОГО ПОТЕНЦИАЛА ИМПОРТОЗАМЕЩЕНИЯ ПРОДУКЦИИ ДОБЫЧИ ПОЛЕЗНЫХ ИСКОПАЕМЫХ В ЭКОНОМИКЕ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ. Часть 2. Оценка возможностей Китайской Народной Республики

The article examines the possibilities of expanding trade and economic ties between Russia and China in the interests of realizing the potential of import substitution of mining products in the economy of the Russian Federation, taking into account the fact that the policy of import substitution arose in connection with the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions by the United States of America and EU countries. Based on statistical data, an approach is proposed to analyze the prospects for expanding trade and economic ties between Russia and China, which allows us to forecast the development of the studied relations. The results of the analysis of prospects can be used to assess the potential of import substitution of mining products in the economy of the Russian Federation and substantiate relevant recommendations to the leadership of our country. It is concluded that the People's Republic of China has the necessary potential to ensure the supply of mining products to Russia.

Формування територіального кластера в молочній промисловості

The purpose of the article is a comparative analysis and generalization of cluster forms of cooperation of dairy industry enterprises, substantiating the expediency of forming a territorial cluster and determining its main participants. The theoretical basis of the research is the basic provisions of economic theory in terms of the forms of contractual relations of the participants of the interaction. The methodological basis of the research is the methods of generalization, systematization, comparison, and classification. As a result of the study, it was established that the goal of forming a territorial cluster is the sustainability of the resource potential of the necessary quantity and quality for the production of dairy products. The way to implement the defined goal is to support the development of peasant farming. Within the framework of the industry cluster, the goal of coordinating the actions of its participants in the dairy market, forming the horizontal integration of production chains creating added value, is implemented. The purpose of creating an innovation cluster is to ensure innovative leadership on the market and implement the import substitution policy. A sign of an agro-industrial cluster is the formation of complete closed cycles of dairy production, while the goal consists in comprehensive management of production and sales risks. The specified differences in the purposes of forming clusters determine the differences in the tasks implemented by the cluster, its structure, the system of interconnections, performance evaluation indicators, etc. Taking into account the set goal, the structure of the cluster is formed. The structure of the territorial cluster formed with the participation of dairy industry enterprises, farms, transport organizations, logistics structures, and banks will ensure economic, social, and regional effectiveness. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in the possibility of using the formed structure and aggregated functions of the participants of the territorial cluster. The social consequences of the study are related to the possibilities of growth in the number of business entities and the level of employment in the region where the cluster is located. The originality of the research results lies in identifying differences in the purposes of cluster formation, the system of relationships, performance evaluation indicators, and the identification of prerequisites for creating a territorial cluster. Prospects for further research include the development of a methodology for assessing the level of balance in the implementation of the economic interests of all cluster participants.

The method of economic-geographic profiling of agriculture for territories with contrasting indicators of development

This work explores spatial differentiation of agriculture and the identification of the existing differentiation in a territory where there are contrasts in economic development as a whole and of the agricultural sector in a particular industry. The method of economic-geographic profiling for the Inter-capital region (along the line of the Minsk-Moscow profile) was used, and dynamics for the last 10 years were investigated. Approaches are proposed for the use of profiling to identify possible growth centers that can become drivers of agricultural development, as well as depressed areas that need to be developed primarily with the help of various instruments of interethnic and regional policy. The most important role in the development of depressed areas can be played by agriculture, which is characterized by short production cycles and the ability to quickly introduce innovations that inevitably arise in cross-border cooperation due to the flow of knowledge and technology, and exchange of experience and cooperation. Because of the profile, two emerging territorial agrarian clusters in Belarus were identified. Also, quantitatively and qualitatively, the gap at the level of agricultural development between the two states was highlighted, which turned out to be more significant than expected (for some product categories by more than an order of magnitude). Profiling for different time periods includes main trends in agricultural development of the Intercapital Region: gravitation of agriculture towards the centers of districts (agropolisation), polarization and the outrunning development of the Russian sector in recent years of the import substitution policy. With this influence of the capitals of the two countries and capacious consumer markets, the formation of high-intensity suburban agriculture is not shown at this stage. The absence of the influence of the inter-capital situation for the peripheral territories of Belarus and Russia is shown.

Problems of import substitution at enterprises of the military-industrial complex

The article explores the problem of economic security of Russia in the conditions of the sanctions policy of the leading world states related to the implementation of the import substitution policy using the example of the electronic industry. In these political conditions, as soon as possible, with the participation of the head executors of the state defense order, lists of products to be primarily replaced were developed, and the government began to actively allocate budget funds for the development of similar products at the facilities of the Russian military-industrial complex. This direction of development is being implemented today in the import substitution program. Effective planning of import substitution measures is impossible without a comprehensive assessment of the dependence of defense products on the use of foreign components in it. Therefore, the article proposes a consolidated coefficient (indicator) of the level of import dependence of items of electronic equipment from the electronic component base of foreign production used in them. In addition, the principles of industrial development of the United States and China are outlined.

РЕАЛИЗАЦИЯ ПЛАНОВ ПО ИМПОРТОЗАМЕЩЕНИЮ В ВЫСОКОТЕХНОЛОГИЧНЫХ ОТРАСЛЯХ ОТЕЧЕСТВЕННОЙ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОСТИ В УСЛОВИЯХ ВНЕШНИХ САНКЦИЙ

The article discusses the implementation of plans for import substitution in high-tech sectors of domestic industry in the conditions of external sanctions on the example of the pharmaceutical industry and mechanical engineering. In the context of restrictions on the import of technologies and equipment into our country, there were problems associated with the replacement of products that fell under the import ban, as well as problems with the development of localization of the main production segments, in particular, in the machine-­building industry. The issues of assessing the effectiveness of the implementation of import substitution plans in the pharmaceutical industry, the causes and factors of the slowdown of the import substitution policy, improving the effectiveness of the import substitution policy in the pharmaceutical industry, proposed measures for import substitution in mechanical engineering, as well as directions for improving state support for high-tech manufacturing industries to solve import substitution problems.

Development of folk arts and crafts as a direction of implementation of the Russian import substitution policy

Development of folk arts and crafts as a direction of implementation of the Russian import substitution policy

Влияние последних событий на бизнес и экономику страны, новые возможности развития

The article provides a research analysis of the features of the development of events in 2022 and the degree of their impact on the macroeconomic stability of the Russian Federation, the prospects for the development of domestic business entities, the increase in geopolitical threats and risks, as well as the adoption of a new package of economic and political sanctions by Western countries in relation to the Russian economy and business entities. The article examines the negative impact of the 2022 sanctions on the development of foreign economic activity of Russian enterprises. Possible trends of export and import of products are analyzed. The advantages and disadvantages of the import substitution policy are considered. The negative impact of sanctions resistance on the activities of enterprises and the need for anti-crisis management are analyzed. The trends of changes in the monetary market and the banking system of Russia in the conditions of the adopted sanctions are considered.

Import substitution and self-sufficiency in basic foodstuffs

The relevance of the topic of the article is caused by the need to study the current situation in the food market and determine the level of development of the production potential of the domestic agri-food complex in the context of import substitution and fierce competition in the global food market. The purpose of the article is to assess the processes of development of the agro-food complex in the context of import substitution, identify trends, and substantiate priorities in the implementation of the country's food security strategy. The article carried out a comprehensive study of the current state of development of agricultural production, analyzed the current state of the food supply of the country's population, identified trends, identified priority strategic directions for the implementation of the import substitution policy, and ensured the country's food security. The article concludes on the long-term nature of the implementation of the import substitution strategy and ensuring food security. There is a need for an interconnected and balanced organization of import and export activities of enterprises of the agro-food complex. The authors substantiate the need for reorientation of enterprises after reaching the target indicators of food self-sufficiency from domestic sales of products to the development of international food markets. The theoretical provisions and practical recommendations proposed in the article make it possible to solve the problem of stable self-sufficiency of the country with competitive food products and the implementation of a food security strategy.

АНАЛИЗ РЫНКА ТРУДА И ПРОБЛЕМЫ СОДЕЙСТВИЮ ЗАНЯТОСТИ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ В ОРЛОВСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ

The purpose of the article is to present the results of operational analysis in the field of assessing the state of labor resources and the labor market of Orel region, employment promotion based on retraining and advanced training. On their basis, it is planned to systematically monitor the situation on the labor market, employment, production development and the implementation of the import substitution policy. Possession of operational information of the analysis will allow you to quickly and objectively make the necessary management decisions. The research methodology is based on an analysis of the current state of the regional labor market in comparison with data for Russia, justification for the need to take measures to retrain the most sought-after specialists. As a result, the importance of developing full-time distance learning programs based on the demand for these programs from needy citizens who are unemployed or who want to get a new profession is substantiated. The results of the study made it possible to substantiate and develop a number of provisions to simplify the procedure for the formation of educational programs for additional professional education, which are implemented within the framework of the Employment Assistance program of the Demography national project. Analysis approaches can be used in monitoring employment in the labor market of any region of the country, which is of practical importance for the public administration system and making informed decisions in the field of social and labor relations.

РЫНОК ТРУДА И ВНЕЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ ШОКИ

The object of the study is the transformation of the Russian labor market. The aim of the work is to assess the quantitative and qualitative consequences of non-economic crises for the Russian labor market. The relevance of the study is due to the need for both retrospective analysis and short-term forecast estimates of changes in the most important parameters of the Russian labor market under the influence of external shocks. The novelty of the research consists in the application of the author's approaches to obtaining factor forecast estimates of changes in the number of employed and unemployed in the economy in 2022 under the influence of restrictions imposed on the country on foreign economic activity. One of them is based on estimates of the elasticity of labor demand in relation to changes in the most important macro parameters, the other is based on estimates of the impact of the effects of reduced imports and disruption of production chains on industry output parameters. The research methods are analysis, economic and mathematical modeling based on the balanced approach, and the RAS method. The findings of the study show that due to the sanctions regime, the potential demand for labor in the economy may decrease by 6.4-6.7 million jobs (employed). However, large-scale government support measures can save about 5 million jobs. In this regard, it is justified that as a result of sanctions, a sharp surge in the number of unemployed should not be expected. A number of factors are also considered that can support the demand for domestic labor in the medium term, namely the intensification of the import substitution policy and the deterioration of the position of foreign labor migrants in the Russian labor market. The article also analyzes the change in industry and qualification (by type of occupation) employment structures under the influence of the coronavirus pandemic. Despite minor changes in the overall industry and qualification structure of employment in 2021 compared with the pre-pandemic 2019, a number of significant changes were noted in the qualification structure of the use of labor within industries. The author draws a conclusion about the effectiveness of economic policy measures aimed at supporting the economy and the labor market and also defines the main directions of transformation of the employment structure in non-economic crises

Политика импортозамещения в России в условиях преодоления внешнего санкционного давления

The article is devoted to revealing the role of import substitution policy in the development of the domestic market. The article examines foreign approaches to the implementation of import substitution. The analysis of the main groups in the commodity structure of Russian imports for the period 2017–2021 is carried out. The results of import substitution of the main commodity groups of imports for the period 2014–2021 are considered. Problems and obstacles in the production of domestic goods are identified. Scenarios for the development of the importsubstituting policy of the state are predicted. The article outlines the priority areas of import substitution policy in Russia.

The impact of Western sanctions on the global and Russian economy, import substitution policy

В статье рассмотрены последствия введения экономических санкций для российской и мировой экономики в целом. Отмечены факторы, повлиявшие на введение антироссийских санкций, и предложены возможные пути решения проблем с импортом продукции.

ДОСТИЖЕНИЕ ТЕХНОЛОГИЧЕСКОГО СУВЕРЕНИТЕТА ВЫСОКОТЕХНОЛОГИЧНЫХ ОТРАСЛЕЙ ЭКОНОМИКИ РФ: СОСТОЯНИЕ И ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ

The article deals with the current topic of achieving technologi- cal sovereignty and technological independence of high-tech industries in the Russian Federation. It considers the notion and economic concept of the im- port substitution policy. Also following the study of scientific literature and foreign practice it identifies and characterizes, various types of import-sub- stituting strategies . The analysis of foreign practice in the field of import sub- stitution, resulted in identifying important tools in that area: stimulating and increasing investment, supporting especially important industries (providing independence in the technological sphere) through the use of a set of tax and other measures. It is shown that import-substituting strategies should be supplemented by a set of industrial and innovation policies, as well as a meso-level development strategy. The author considers various points of view on achieving import in- dependence in high-tech industries as well as the potential, main issues, tasks and directions for achieving technological sovereignty by the example of the electronic industry of the Russian Federation. The main principles of a new ap- proach to managing the development of high-tech industrial complexes in order to achieve technological sovereignty are identified: a systematic approach, pri- ority for the development of meso-level innovation ecosystems, consolidation of efforts in critical (priority) and promising areas for achieving technological so-vereignty, selected taking into account the principle of optimality, focus on in- novative activity and entrepreneurship, orienting perspective planning

ІМПЛЕМЕНТАЦІЯ СТРАТЕГІЇ ІМПОРТОЗАМІЩЕННЯ В СУЧАСНИХ РЕАЛІЯХ ГЕОЕКОНОМІЧНОЇ НЕСТАБІЛЬНОСТІ

The article discusses the dependence of European countries on imports of Russian oil and gas, which caused instability in supply chains and could trigger the destruction of the global financial system, against the background of the war in Ukraine. The main positions of the impact of the sanctions regime on global trade flows were highlighted. As Ukraine fights for survival, Western governments are taking steps to punish Russia. They’re aware that by doing so, they could heighten the conflict’s impact on their own economies. In this way, the sphere of sanctions had revealed the weaknesses of the national oil regime of the European Union from Russia and gas. According to the European Central Bank, the shock of gas regulation by 10% could reduce eurozone GDP by 0.7%, which will increase the figure to 40% – the share of European gas coming from Russia – means an economic decline of 3%. Maximum sanctions can lead to unpredictable consequences that lead to a system of global financial destruction with side effects for US and European banks. The Federal Reserve System is moving to sustain growth. But if higher prices lead to inflationary expectations among consumers and businesses, it will lead to the worst-case scenario of monetary policy: the need to tighten even in a weak economy. The pandemic has left the global economy with two key points of vulnerability – high inflation and jittery financial markets. Aftershocks from the invasion could easily worsen both. There’s a threat to growth too. Households spending an ever-larger chunk of their incomes on fuel and heating will have less cash for other goods and services. Plunging markets would add another drag, hitting wealth and confidence, and making it harder for firms to tap funds for investment. It is analyzed how supply chain disruptions can complicate Russia's trade with European countries and how it affects the entire Eurozone region. Against the background of a sharp decline in Russian energy supplies to Europe and the United States, there is a tendency to increase oil and gas supplies to the East and Africa. The article highlights the forecast for Europe and US inflation and identifies its impact on foreign trade policy. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine carries huge risks for a world economy that’s yet to fully recover from the pandemic shock. So it has been determined that the deterioration of the global financial system is accelerating in the context of the slow growth of world trade since the 2008 global financial crisis and the recovery of the world's economies from the shock of the COVID-19 epidemic. Therefore, in order to avoid and mitigate the negative effects on the world economy, the strategies of import substitution policy in the current realities of geo-economics’ instability were conducted and studied.

Transformation of food security of the border region in the face of external challenges: a case study of Kaliningrad Oblast

Foreign trade relations of Russia in the 2010s developed in the context of various geopolitical challenges, which led to a radical transformation of the volume and geography of export-import operations, including the food sector. The 2014 embargo triggered an intensification of the import substitution policy in the Russian agriculture and food production. The value of the import component in the food market, the basic level of agriculture and food production development, and the level of diversification and localisation of raw material relations of enterprises acted as differentiating factors in the influence of new external challenges on the food security of the regions. Kaliningrad Oblast is of particular interest for studying the transformation of food security, taking into account the exclave position, the low level of agriculture development a decade ago, close export-import relations with European countries until 2014. The paper calculates food security indicators, analyses territorial and sectoral shifts in agriculture and food production, and estimates changes in the import component in the food market of Kaliningrad Oblast. The data of the federal state statistics service, the Kaliningrad regional customs, as well as the results of expert interviews and visual observations conducted by the authors in August 2020 are used. It was revealed that the transformation of food security in Kaliningrad Oblast, on the one hand, reflected national trends, and, on the other hand, had unique features. The latter were characteristic of changes in the food independence of the region. Its increase was associated with the rapid growth of agriculture with a high return of government support. In addition, there was a relatively dispersed distribution of key centers of agricultural production, atypical for many regions of “mainland” Russia. The beneficiaries of the free niches on the market, which opened after the food embargo in 2014, as in most of the territory of Russia, were large agroholdings, but many of them, in contrast to those located in the interior regions of the country, were rather acutely experiencing the ruptures of raw materials ties.