РЫНОК ТРУДА И ВНЕЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ ШОКИ

Abstract

The object of the study is the transformation of the Russian labor market. The aim of the work is to assess the quantitative and qualitative consequences of non-economic crises for the Russian labor market. The relevance of the study is due to the need for both retrospective analysis and short-term forecast estimates of changes in the most important parameters of the Russian labor market under the influence of external shocks. The novelty of the research consists in the application of the author's approaches to obtaining factor forecast estimates of changes in the number of employed and unemployed in the economy in 2022 under the influence of restrictions imposed on the country on foreign economic activity. One of them is based on estimates of the elasticity of labor demand in relation to changes in the most important macro parameters, the other is based on estimates of the impact of the effects of reduced imports and disruption of production chains on industry output parameters. The research methods are analysis, economic and mathematical modeling based on the balanced approach, and the RAS method. The findings of the study show that due to the sanctions regime, the potential demand for labor in the economy may decrease by 6.4-6.7 million jobs (employed). However, large-scale government support measures can save about 5 million jobs. In this regard, it is justified that as a result of sanctions, a sharp surge in the number of unemployed should not be expected. A number of factors are also considered that can support the demand for domestic labor in the medium term, namely the intensification of the import substitution policy and the deterioration of the position of foreign labor migrants in the Russian labor market. The article also analyzes the change in industry and qualification (by type of occupation) employment structures under the influence of the coronavirus pandemic. Despite minor changes in the overall industry and qualification structure of employment in 2021 compared with the pre-pandemic 2019, a number of significant changes were noted in the qualification structure of the use of labor within industries. The author draws a conclusion about the effectiveness of economic policy measures aimed at supporting the economy and the labor market and also defines the main directions of transformation of the employment structure in non-economic crises