Strong Predictor Of All-cause Mortality Research Articles

Abdominal Aortic Calcifications Predict Survival in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients.

Peripheral arterial disease and vascular calcifications contribute significantly to the outcome of dialysis patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic role of severity of abdominal aortic calcifications and peripheral arterial disease on outcome of peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients using methods easily available in everyday clinical practice. We enrolled 249 PD patients (mean age 61 years, 67% male) in this prospective, observational, multicenter study from 2009 to 2013. The abdominal aortic calcification score (AACS) was assessed using lateral lumbar X ray, and the ankle-brachial index (ABI) using a Doppler device. The median AACS was 11 (range 0 - 24). In 58% of the patients, all 4 segments of the abdominal aorta showed deposits, while 19% of patients had no visible deposits (AACS 0). Ankle-brachial index was normal in 49%, low (< 0.9) in 17%, and high (> 1.3) in 34% of patients. Altogether 91 patients (37%) died during the median follow-up of 46 months. Only 2 patients (5%) with AACS 0 died compared with 50% of the patients with AACS ≥ 7 (p < 0.001). The adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 4.85 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.94 - 24.46) for aortic calcification (AACS ≥ 7), 2.14 for diabetes (yes/no), 0.93 for albumin (per 1 g/L), and 1.04 for age (per year). A low or high ABI were not independently associated with mortality. Severe aortic calcification was a strong predictor of all-cause mortality in PD patients. The evaluation of aortic calcifications by lateral X ray is a simple method that allows the identification of high-risk patients.

Impact of clinical presentation and presence of coronary sclerosis on long-term outcome of patients with non-obstructive coronary artery disease

BackgroundNon-obstructive coronary artery disease (NOCAD) is a common finding on coronary angiography. Our goal was to evaluate the long-term prognosis of NOCAD patients with stable angina (SA).MethodsThe study cohort consisted of 7478 NOCAD patients with normal EF (≥ 50%), and SA who underwent coronary angiography between 1995 and 2012. We compared NOCAD patients (stenosis< 50%) with 10,906 patients with stable obstructive CAD (≥ 50%). The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Secondary endpoints included repeat angiography, progressive CAD, and PCI. A second comparison group consisted of 7344 patients with NOCAD presenting with an ACS. Rates of all-cause mortality of NOCAD ACS patients were compared to NOCAD SA patients.ResultsMedian follow-up time was 6.5 years. NOCAD patients had a lower risk of all-cause mortality compared to CAD patients (HR CAD vs. NOCAD 1.33 (1.19–1.49); p < 0.001). This was driven by patients with normal coronary arteries (HR CAD vs. normal 1.63 (1.36–1.94), p < 0.001), whereas patients with minimal disease (> 0% and < 50%) were at similar risk as CAD patients (HR CAD vs. minimal 1.08 (0.99–1.29), p = 0.06). In NOCAD patients, the strongest predictors of all-cause mortality were age and minimal disease. SA patients with NOCAD had low rates of repeat angiography (7.3%), future CAD (2.3%) and PCI (1.7%). NOCAD ACS patients had a 41% increase in all-cause mortality risk compared to NOCAD SA patients (HR 1.41 (1.25–1.6), p < 0.001).ConclusionsThis study underlines the importance of minimal CAD, as it is not a benign disease entity and portends a similar risk as stable obstructive CAD.

A novel echocardiographic hemodynamic index for predicting outcome of aortic stenosis patients following transcatheter aortic valve replacement.

ObjectiveTranscatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) reduces left ventricular (LV) afterload and improves prognosis in aortic stenosis (AS) patients. However, LV afterload consists of both valvular and arterial loads, and the benefits of TAVR may be attenuated if the arterial load dominates. We proposed a new hemodynamic index, the Relative Valve Load (RVL), a ratio of mean gradient (MG) and valvuloarterial impedance (Zva), to describe the relative contribution of the valvular load to the global LV load, and examined whether RVL predicted patient outcome following TAVR.MethodsA total of 258 patients with symptomatic severe AS (indexed aortic valve area (AVA)<0.6cm2/m2, AR≤2+) underwent successful TAVR at the University of Ottawa Heart Institute and had clinical follow-up to 1-year post-TAVR. Pre-TAVR MG, AVA, percent stroke work loss (%SWL), Zva and RVL were measured by echocardiography. The primary endpoint was all cause mortality at 1-year post TAVR.ResultsThere were 53 deaths (20.5%) at 1-year. RVL≤7.95ml/m2 had a sensitivity of 60.4% and specificity of 75.1% for identifying all cause mortality at 1-year post-TAVR and provided better specificity than MG<40 mmHg, AVA>0.75cm2, %SWL≤25% and Zva>5mmHg/ml/m2 despite equivalent or better sensitivity. In multivariable Cox analysis, RVL≤7.95ml/m2 was an independent predictor of all cause mortality (HR 3.2, CI 1.8–5.9; p<0.0001). RVL≤7.95ml/m2 was predictive of all cause mortality in both low flow and normal flow severe AS.ConclusionsRVL is a strong predictor of all-cause mortality in severe AS patients undergoing TAVR. A pre-procedural RVL≤7.95ml/m2 identifies AS patients at increased risk of death despite TAVR and may assist with decision making on the benefits of TAVR.

Association of sarcopenic obesity predicted by anthropometric measurements and 24-y all-cause mortality in elderly men: The Kuakini Honolulu Heart Program.

The aim of this study was to investigate the association between anthropometric measurements of sarcopenic obesity and all-cause mortality. The study included 2309 Japanese-American men ages 71 to 93 y. Mortality data were available for up to 24 y of follow-up. Sarcopenic obesity defined by three patterns of obesity indexes (body mass index [BMI], percent body fat [%BF] and waist circumference [WC]) and skeletal muscle index estimated by anthropometric measurements. Of the 2309 participants, 2210 deaths were reported during the mean follow-up period of 11.7 y. Risk for death was significantly increased with sarcopenia after adjusting for baseline age, lifestyle variables, hypertension, diabetes, and cognitive scores (hazard ratio [HR], 1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.15-1.38). Risk for death was significantly decreased with obesity using WC and %BF to define obesity, but not BMI. Risk for death also was significantly increased in the sarcopenia group compared with the optimal group, regardless of which pattern of obesity indexes (BMI, %BF, and WC) was used. Risk for death was significantly increased in sarcopenic obesity defined by WC (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.02-1.38), borderline in the BMI-defined group, and not significant in the %BF-defined group. All-cause mortality was increased in men with sarcopenic obesity defined by WC, but not BMI and %BF. Sarcopenia was a stronger predictor of all-cause mortality in this cohort >70 y of age. These results suggest that anthropometric definitions for sarcopenia and sarcopenic obesity are clinically useful as a predictor of all-cause mortality.

Fibrosis as measured by the biomarker, tissue inhibitor metalloproteinase-1, predicts mortality in Age Gene Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik (AGES-Reykjavik) Study.

Fibrosis is a key pathological process in many chronic inflammatory disease states. We hypothesized that tissue inhibitor metalloproteinase-1 and matrix metalloproteinase-9 (TIMP-1 and MMP-9), biomarkers of fibrosis, would predict all-cause mortality and we assessed the incremental value of these biomarkers when adjusting for clinical and other biomarkers. The cohort included 5511 community-dwelling participants in the AGES-Reykjavik Study. The baseline Cox proportional hazards regression model was based on the Framingham Risk Score variables; we added TIMP-1, MMP-9, serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The primary outcome was all-cause 10-year mortality. Cause of death was categorized as cardiovascular death (CVD), cancer death, and other causes. Participants averaged 76 years and 43% were male. Ten-year mortality was 41% (2263 deaths). Of these, 915 (16.6%) died of cardiovascular disease (CVD), 543 (9.9%) with cancer, and 805 (14.6%) from other causes. For 10-year mortality, age was the strongest predictor (log likelihood χ2 = 798.7, P < 0.0001), followed by TIMP-1 (χ2 = 125.2, P < 0.0001), female gender, current smoker, diabetes mellitus, total cholesterol, eGFR (χ2 16.7, P < 0.0001), body mass index, and hsCRP (χ2 11.3, P = 0.0008) in that order. TIMP-1 and hsCRP had the highest continuous net reclassification improvement over the baseline model for 5-year survival [net reclassification index (NRI) 0.28 and 0.19, respectively, both P < 0.0001] and for 10-year survival (NRI 0.19 and 0.11, respectively, both statistically significant). TIMP-1 is the strongest predictor of all-cause mortality after age. The metabolic pathways regulating extracellular matrix homeostasis and fibrogenic processes appear pathologically relevant and are prognostically important.

P3447New frailty assessment based on routine nurse anamnesis before discharge is a strong predictor of all-cause mortality in patients with myocardial infarction

P3447New frailty assessment based on routine nurse anamnesis before discharge is a strong predictor of all-cause mortality in patients with myocardial infarction

The serum anion gap is associated with disease severity and all-cause mortality in coronary artery disease.

ObjectiveTo evaluate the associations between the serum anion gap (AG) with the severity and prognosis of coronary artery disease (CAD).MethodsWe measured serum electrolytes in 18,115 CAD patients indicated by coronary angiography. The serum AG was calculated according to the equation: AG = Na+[(mmol/L) + K+ (mmol/L)] − [Cl− (mmol/L) + HCO3− (mmol/L)].ResultsA total of 4510 (24.9%) participants had their AG levels greater than 16 mmol/L. The serum AG was independently associated with measures of CAD severity, including more severe clinical types of CAD (P < 0.001) and worse cardiac function (P = 0.004). Patients in the 4th quartile of serum AG (≥ 15.92 mmol/L) had a 5.171-fold increased risk of 30 days all-cause death (P < 0.001). This association was robust, even after adjustment for age, sex, evaluated glomerular filtration rate [hazard ratio (HR): 4.861, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.150–10.993, P < 0.001], clinical diagnosis, severity of coronary artery stenosis, cardiac function grades, and other confounders (HR: 3.318, 95% CI: 1.76–2.27, P = 0.009).ConclusionIn this large population-based study, our findings reveal a high percentage of increased serum AG in CAD. Higher AG is associated with more severe clinical types of CAD and worse cardiac function. Furthermore, the increased serum AG is an independent, significant, and strong predictor of all-cause mortality. These findings support a role for the serum AG in the risk-stratification of CAD.

Importance and added value of functional impairment to predict mortality: a cohort study in Swedish medical inpatients

BackgroundAccurate estimation of prognosis in multimorbid hospital patients could improve quality of care. This study aims to determine the relative importance and added value of a performance-based activities of daily...

Usefulness of the CHA2DS2-VASc Score to Predict Mortality in Defibrillator Recipients

The CHA2DS2-VASC score is a well-validated stratification tool that predicts the risk of thromboembolism and stroke in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. Several studies have examined its application as a predictor of mortality in clinical applications other than atrial fibrillation. However, there are current no studies examining its use as an outcome prediction tool in a population of patients with implantable cardiac defibrillators (ICDs). In this study, we examined data from 2,258 patients who underwent ICD device implantation at the hospitals of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center from February 2002 to April 2014 (median follow-up 5.1years) and examined the impact of their CHA2DS2-VASC score at the time of device implantation on all-cause mortality. Survival curves based on CHA2DS2-VASC scores were generated using the Kaplan-Meier method and were adjusted for unbalanced covariates using the Cox proportional hazards model. The mean CHA2DS2-VASC score was 3.15 ± 1.52 (range 1 to 8, mode 3). The CHA2DS2-VASC score predicted all-cause mortality in a significant and dose-dependent fashion. Analyzing the population by quartiles revealed increasing all-cause mortality from Q1 to Q4 (p <0.001). Using a Cox multivariate model adjusting for ejection fraction, BMI, serum creatinine, hemoglobin level, and QRS width, the CHA2DS2-VASC score remained a strong predictor of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.26 per 1-point increase, 95% confidence interval 1.20 to 1.32). In conclusion, the CHA2DS2-VASC score is a simple tool that highly predicts all-cause mortality in patients with ICD.

Association of Heart Rate Recovery With Microalbuminuria in Non-Obstructive Coronary Artery Disease.

BackgroundNon-obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) is associated with significantly increased risk for myocardial infarction. Heart rate recovery (HRR), a measure of autonomic function, is a strong predictor of all-cause mortality. Microalbuminuria, a marker of early arterial disease, is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease and mortality. We aimed to investigate HRR and determine its relationship with microalbuminuria in patients with non-obstructive CAD.MethodsWe prospectively studied 565 patients who underwent elective coronary angiography. All participants underwent urinary analysis and then an exercise test. Microalbuminuria was defined as an urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) of 30 - 299 mg/g. The HRR was abnormal if ≤ 12 beats/min during the first minute after exercise. First, all patients were divided into two groups, patients with microalbuminuria (n = 152) and patients without microalbuminuria (n = 413). Then, all patients were re-divided into two groups, those with lower HRR (≤ 12 beats/min, n = 126) and those with higher HRR (> 12 beats/min, n = 439).ResultsPatients with microalbuminuria had lower HRR and patients with lower HRR had higher UACR. While UACR was negatively correlated with HRR in patients with microalbuminuria (r = -0.424; P < 0.001) and in patients with lower HRR (r = -0.192; P= 0.042), there was no correlation of UACR with HRR in neither patients with normoalbuminuria nor patients with higher HRR, respectively. In the all study population, there was a significant inverse association between UACR and HRR (r = -0.445, P < 0.001), and UACR independently predicted the presence of lower HRR (P < 0.001).ConclusionsOur findings showed that there was a significant inverse association between UACR and HRR in patients especially with microalbuminuria, and that albuminuria might predict cardiac autonomic imbalance evaluated by HRR in patients with non-obstructive CAD.

Left ventricular global longitudinal strain predicts major adverse cardiac events and all-cause mortality in heart transplant patients

Left ventricular global longitudinal strain (LVGLS) is a robust longitudinal myocardial deformation marker that is strongly affected by cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV), microvascular dysfunction, and acute cellular rejection (ACR). We evaluated graft deformation for risk stratification in long-term heart transplant (HTx) patients. The study included 196 patients who underwent HTx between 2011 and 2013. Patients underwent comprehensive echocardiography and coronary angiography. Previous rejection burden was assessed, and ACR grades were calculated. Patients were prospectively followed until February 24, 2016. Major adverse cardiac events (MACE), including coronary event, heart failure, treated rejection, and cardiovascular death, and all-cause mortality were recorded. During follow-up, 57 patients experienced MACE. Median follow-up was 1,035 (interquartile range [IQR] 856-1,124) days. Median time to first event was 534 (IQR 276-763) days. LVGLS was a strong predictor of MACE (hazard ratio [HR] 4.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.7-8.9, p < 0.0001) in patients with and without CAV. LVGLS was a strong predictor of all-cause mortality (HR 4.9, 95% CI 2.2-10.8, p < 0.0001). Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) also predicted MACE, but only in patients with CAV. No relationship between LVEF and all-cause mortality was seen. We obtained a strong MACE (HR 6.3, 95% CI 2.8-14.1, p < 0.0001) and all-cause mortality (HR 6.6, 95% CI 2.3-19.2, p < 0.0001) predictive model by combining LVGLS and restrictive left ventricular filling pattern (LVFP), which remained strong after adjustment for CAV, ACR score, hemoglobin, creatinine, and time since transplantation. Measurement of LVGLS strongly predicts MACE and mortality in long-term HTx patients. Predictive ability was seen in patients with and without CAV. A combined model of left ventricular systolic deformation by LVGLS and diastolic graft performance by LVFP was a stronger model for prediction of MACE and all-cause mortality.

Usefulness of the thrombolysis in myocardial infarction risk index in acute heart failure: a pilot study

BackgroundRisk stratification in acute heart failure (AHF) is vital for both physicians and paramedical personals. Thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) risk index (TRI) and modified TRI (mTRI) are novel and simple predictive risk indices that have been examined in patients with acute coronary syndrome. ObjectiveIn the current study, we evaluated the relationship among TRI, mTRI, and mortality in patients with AHF. MethodsA total of 293 patients with AHF were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into 2 groups: group 1 consisted of patients who survived and group 2 consisted of patients who died during a follow-up period of 120 days. Multivariate hierarchical logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the relationship among TRI, mTRI, and mortality. ResultsAll causes of death occurred in 84 patients (28.6%). Thrombolysis in myocardial infarction risk index was significantly higher in patients who died during follow-up (20.2 ± 12.4 vs 14.8 ± 8.9). The new risk score showed good predictive value for 120-day mortality. Before laboratory analysis, in-multivariate hierarchical logistic regression analysis TRI remained as an independent risk factor for mortality (odds ratio, 2.56; P < .001). After the laboratory analysis, despite the fact that TRI has lost its predictive value, mTRI remained an independent risk factor for mortality (odds ratio, 2.08; P = .01). ConclusionThe TRI is a simple and strong predictor of all-cause mortality in patients who were admitted with AHF. The current study reveals for the first time the strong predictive value of TRI in patients with AHF.

Cognitive and emotional outcomes after prolonged education: a quasi-experiment on 320 182 Swedish boys.

Background: Cognitive and socio-emotional abilities are powerful predictors of death and disease as well as of social and economic outcomes. Education is societies’ main way of promoting these abilities, ideally so that inequalities by socioeconomic background are reduced. However, the extent to which education serves these cognitive, social-emotional and equality objectives is relatively unknown and intensively debated. Drawing on a Swedish school reform that was explicitly designed as a massive quasi-experiment, we assessed differential impact of education on intelligence and emotional control across childhood socioeconomic position. We also assessed initial differences in abilities by childhood socioeconomic position and how well childhood socioeconomic position and abilities predict all-cause mortality. Methods: The Swedish comprehensive school reform, rolled out during the 1950s, extended compulsory education from 8 to 9 years in some municipalities whereas others were kept as controls for the sake of evaluation. We followed eight full cohorts of Swedish boys born between 1951 and 1958, who lived in 1017 municipalities with known experimental status (344 336 boys) and whose childhood socioeconomic position was known (320 182 boys). At conscription, intelligence was measured by four subtests and emotional control (calm and efficient responses in various situations) was rated by a military psychologist. Both measures were standardized to have a mean of 100 and standard deviation of 15. All-cause mortality was recorded until 49–56 years of age. Results: The reform had an average positive impact on intelligence of 0.75 IQ units (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.54, 0.97; P < 0.0005). The impact on emotional control was negative; −0.50 units (95% CI: −0.72, −0.28; P < 0.0005). Both effects differed by socioeconomic background so that the average IQ difference between sons of high non-manual and unqualified manual workers was reduced from 16.32 to 15.57 units and the difference in emotional control was reduced from 6.50 to 5.63 units. All-cause mortality was predicted by low childhood socioeconomic position [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.15 [95% CI: 1.11, 1.20], P < 0.0005], low intelligence [HR = 1.39 (95% CI: 1.34, 1.44), P < 0.0005] as well as low emotional control [HR = 1.61 (95% CI: 1.55, 1.67), P < 0.0005] in mutually adjusted models. Conclusions: Extending compulsory education promoted intelligence but lowered emotional control, and reduced disparities over social background in both. Emotional control was the strongest predictor of all-cause mortality. Our results are in line with the idea that education is important in our efforts to achieve healthy, competent and fair societies, but much more work is needed to understand the links between education and non-cognitive skills.

Peripheral artery disease and blood pressure profile abnormalities in hemodialysis patients.

Patients undergoing chronic hemodialysis (HD) are at increased risk for peripheral artery disease (PAD). Both ankle-brachial index (ABI) and ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) in the interdialytic period have been shown to be strong predictors of all-cause mortality. This cross-sectional study investigated the relationship between ABPM profile and ABI in 81 HD patients. ABPM was measured throughout a 44-h midweek interdialytic period. Pre-dialysis ABI was evaluated with a BOSO ABI device. An ABI value <0.9 or ≥1.3 was defined as abnormal. In the whole study group (72% males, mean age 67±14years), there was an increase in BP (p<0.05) and in systolic BP night/day ratio (n/dSR, p=0.01) during the interdialytic period. Patients with abnormal ABI (n=29) more frequently had a positive history for cerebrovascular accident and PAD and higher proBNP values than those with normal ABI (n=52). No difference was detected among ABPM-derived components except for the n/dSR (p=0.02). Patients with abnormal ABI showed a significantly increased n/dSR (p=0.02) and ambulatory arterial stiffness index (AASI) (p=0.006) on the second day compared to the first. Patients with n/dSR >1 during day 2 (n=34) were older, showed significantly higher proBNP and AASI and were more likely to reveal abnormal ABI compared to those with a lower n/dSR (p=0.006). Abnormal ABI in HD patients is associated to changes in interdialytic ABPM pattern, namely higher n/dSR on day 2. These data may indicate the pathophysiological mechanisms underlying the worse outcome observed in HD patients.

Vitamin B-6 catabolism and long-term mortality risk in patients with coronary artery disease

Low vitamin B-6 status has been related to increased risk of coronary artery disease (CAD), which is a condition that is associated with inflammation. The most common status marker, plasma pyridoxal 5'-phosphate (PLP), decreases during inflammation; therefore, causal relations are uncertain. We evaluated the vitamin B-6 biomarkers PLP, pyridoxal, and pyridoxic acid (PA) and the pyridoxic acid:(pyridoxal + PLP) ratio (PAr), a proposed marker of vitamin B-6 catabolism during activated cellular immunity, as predictors of mortality. Associations with risks of long-term all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality were evaluated with the use of Cox regression in patients who were undergoing elective coronary angiography for suspected stable angina pectoris (SAP) (n = 4131) and an independent cohort of patients who were hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) (n = 3665). Plasma PLP (AMI patients only) and PA predicted all-cause mortality in models that were adjusted for established risk predictors, but associations were attenuated or nonsignificant after additional adjustment for inflammatory markers. PAr was correlated with biomarkers of inflammation (Pearson's r ≥ 0.37) and predicted all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality after adjustment for established risk predictors. In SAP patients, PAr had greater predictive strength than did current smoking, diabetes, hypertension, apolipoproteins, or C-reactive protein. PAr provided multiadjusted HRs per SD of 1.45 (95% CI: 1.30, 1.63) and 1.31 (95% CI: 1.21, 1.41) in SAP and AMI patients, respectively. In both cohorts, PAr was a particularly strong predictor of all-cause mortality for patients with no previous CAD history (P-interaction ≤ 0.04). PAr may capture unique aspects of inflammatory activation and thus provide new insights into disease mechanisms that may aid in identifying patients at increased risk of future fatal events.

Submaximal fitness and mortality risk reduction in coronary heart disease: a retrospective cohort study of community-based exercise rehabilitation

ObjectivesTo examine the association between submaximal cardiorespiratory fitness (sCRF) and all-cause mortality in a cardiac rehabilitation (CR) cohort.DesignRetrospective cohort study of participants entering CR between 26 May 1993 and 16...

Mortality prediction of a body shape index versus traditional anthropometric measures in an Iranian population: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study

ObjectivesA body shape index (ABSI) based on waist circumference (WC) adjusted for height and weight has been shown to be a risk factor for premature mortality. The aim of this study was to demonstrate that ABSI predicts mortality hazard better than other anthropometric measures in an Iranian population. MethodsThe study population included 9242 Iranian participants in Tehran, aged ≥30 y, followed for a median 10 y. The risk for mortality was estimated by incorporating ABSI, body mass index (BMI), WC, waist-to-hip ratio (WHpR), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), one at a time, into multivariate models as well as in terms of the effect size, calibration, discrimination, and added predictive ability. ResultsWe documented 487 deaths with the annual incidence rate of mortality per 1000 persons being 3.9 for women and 8.2 for men. ABSI was associated with all-cause mortality in a curvilinear fashion. ABSI was more strongly associated with all-cause mortality than were BMI, WC, and WHtR. Among women, however, WHpR was observed to be a stronger predictor of all-cause mortality than ABSI. Among both men and women, ABSI improved the risk classification based on other anthropometric measures, the only exception being WHpR. None of the anthropometric measures studied could add any value to the predictive ability of the Framingham's general cardiovascular disease algorithm. ConclusionABSI was the strongest predictor of all-cause mortality among the anthropometric measurements, except WHpR in women. When ABSI was added to the Framingham general cardiovascular disease algorithm, it failed to improve the predictive ability.

Racial Differences in the Prognostic Value of Cardiorespiratory Fitness (Results from the Henry Ford Exercise Testing Project)

The aim of this analysis was to determine whether racial differences exist in the prognostic value of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) in black and white patients undergoing stress testing. We included 53,876 patients (mean age 53 ± 13, 49% women) from the Henry Ford Exercise Testing project free of established coronary disease or heart failure who completed a maximal exercise test from 1991 to 2009. Patients were followed for a mean duration of 11.5 years for all-cause mortality, ascertained by linkage with the Death Master File. Follow-up over mean 6.2 years was also available for incident myocardial infarction. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models were used adjusting for demographic variables, risk factors, medications, and reason for stress test referral, including formal interaction testing by race (black vs white). Black patients (n = 16,725) were younger (54 ± 13 vs 52 ± 13, p <0.001) but had higher prevalence of hypertension (73% vs 57%, p <0.001) and obesity (28% vs 21%, p <0.001). On average, black patients achieved a lower CRF compared with whites (8.4 vs 9.5 metabolic equivalents, p <0.0001). A graded increase in mortality risk was noted with decreasing CRF for both black and white patients. In multivariate Cox regression, CRF was a predictor of both myocardial infarction and mortality, with no significant interaction between race, fitness, and outcomes (all interaction terms p >0.10). CRF is a strong predictor of all-cause mortality in both white and black patients, with no significant interaction observed between race, fitness, and outcomes.

Epidemiology, outcomes, and predictors of mortality in hospitalized adults with Clostridium difficile infection

Studies have demonstrated an increasing Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) incidence in hospitals and the community, with increasing morbidity and mortality. In this study, we analyzed data from the National Hospital Discharge Survey (NHDS) to evaluate CDI epidemiology, outcomes, and predictors of mortality in hospitalized adults. We identified cases of CDI (and associated comorbid conditions) from NHDS data from 2005 through 2009 using ICD-9 codes. Weighted univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to ascertain CDI incidence, associations between CDI and outcomes [length of stay (LOS), colectomy, all-cause in-hospital mortality, and discharge to a care facility], and predictors of all-cause in-hospital mortality. Of an estimated 162 million adult inpatients, 1.26 million (0.8%) had CDI. The overall CDI incidence is 77.8/10,000 hospitalizations, with no statistically significant change over the study period. On multivariate analysis, after adjusting for age, gender, and comorbid conditions, CDI is an independent predictor of longer LOS (mean difference, 2.35days), all-cause mortality [odds ratio (OR) 1.45], colectomy (OR 1.41), and discharge to a care facility (OR 2.12) (all P<0.001). Elderly patients have a higher CDI incidence and worse outcomes than younger adults. The strongest predictors of all-cause mortality in patients with CDI include age 65years or older, colectomy, and coagulation abnormalities. Despite stable CDI incidence and advances in management, CDI is associated with increased LOS, colectomy, all-cause in-hospital mortality, and discharge to a care facility in hospitalized, especially elderly, adults. Age older than 65years should be added to the severity criteria for CDI.

Individual components of the Romhilt-Estes left ventricular hypertrophy score differ in their prediction of cardiovascular events: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

It has been recently reported that the Romhilt-Estes (R-E) score, originally proposed for detection of left ventricular hypertrophy from the electrocardiogram, is a strong predictor of all-cause mortality. Whether the R-E score is also predictive of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and whether its individual components differ in their ability to predict different CVD outcomes are not well established. This analysis includes 13,261 participants from the ARIC study who were free of CVD at baseline (1987-1989). Incident CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure (HF), and stroke were ascertained by an adjudication committee through December 2010. The R-E left ventricular hypertrophy score was measured from automatically processed baseline electrocardiogram data. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the association between baseline the R-E overall score (overall) and each of its 6 individual components separately, with each of the CVD outcomes. During a median follow-up of 21.8 years, 3,579, 2,205, 1,814, and 731 CVD, CHD, HF, and stroke events, respectively, occurred. In multivariable adjusted models, R-E score ≥4 points (compared with 0 points) was associated with increased risk of CVD, CHD, HF, and stroke (hazard ratio [95% CI] 1.66 [1.41-1.96], 1.66 [1.34-2.07], 1.97 [1.60-2.43], and 1.49 [1.07-2.07], respectively). The 6 component of the R-E score varied in their relationship to different CVD outcomes. The R-E score is predictive of CVD outcomes. The 6 R-E score components differ in their associations with different CVD outcomes, indicating that they may be electrical biomarkers of different physiological events within the myocardium.