Mortality prediction of a body shape index versus traditional anthropometric measures in an Iranian population: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study

Abstract

ObjectivesA body shape index (ABSI) based on waist circumference (WC) adjusted for height and weight has been shown to be a risk factor for premature mortality. The aim of this study was to demonstrate that ABSI predicts mortality hazard better than other anthropometric measures in an Iranian population. MethodsThe study population included 9242 Iranian participants in Tehran, aged ≥30 y, followed for a median 10 y. The risk for mortality was estimated by incorporating ABSI, body mass index (BMI), WC, waist-to-hip ratio (WHpR), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), one at a time, into multivariate models as well as in terms of the effect size, calibration, discrimination, and added predictive ability. ResultsWe documented 487 deaths with the annual incidence rate of mortality per 1000 persons being 3.9 for women and 8.2 for men. ABSI was associated with all-cause mortality in a curvilinear fashion. ABSI was more strongly associated with all-cause mortality than were BMI, WC, and WHtR. Among women, however, WHpR was observed to be a stronger predictor of all-cause mortality than ABSI. Among both men and women, ABSI improved the risk classification based on other anthropometric measures, the only exception being WHpR. None of the anthropometric measures studied could add any value to the predictive ability of the Framingham's general cardiovascular disease algorithm. ConclusionABSI was the strongest predictor of all-cause mortality among the anthropometric measurements, except WHpR in women. When ABSI was added to the Framingham general cardiovascular disease algorithm, it failed to improve the predictive ability.