Stratospheric Variability Research Articles

Stratospheric PULSE–continental cold air outbreak coupling relationships: Interannual and interdecadal changes

Stratospheric processes and their role in weather and climate have attracted increasing interests. The correspondence between the occurrence of pulse-like, stronger stratospheric poleward warm airmass transport (PULSE) events and the continental-scale cold air outbreak (CAO) events in northern hemispheric winter is found to be unstable from year to year. This increases the difficulties in utilizing the more predictable stratospheric variability in the sub-seasonal forecasts of CAOs, which can cause cold hazards. Using the ERA5 reanalysis data covering 37 winters (November–March) in the period 1979–2015, this study categorizes the CAO events over mid-latitudes of Eurasia (CAO_EA) and those over North America (CAO_NA) into two groups: those coupled with and those decoupled with the PULSE events. The coupled CAOs are further categorized into events that are, respectively, lead-coupled and lag-coupled with PULSEs. The intensity and affected area of extremely cold temperatures tend to be larger during CAOs that are coupled with PULSEs, particularly during the CAO_NA events that are lag-coupled with PULSEs and the CAO_EA events that are lead-coupled with PULSEs. Remarkable interannual and interdecadal variations are observed in the percentage of CAOs that are coupled with PULSEs for each winter, which is an important reference for determining the window of opportunity for skillful sub-seasonal forecasts of CAO by using the stratospheric signals. At both interdecadal and interannual timescales, a warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in winter is favorable for the higher lag-coupling rate of CAO_NA and the lead-coupling rate of CAO_EA, and vice versa. The ENSO signals related to the interdecadal changes of the CAO coupling rate in winter can be traced back to the previous winter, while an ENSO phase transition from the previous winter to the current winter is closely related to the interannual changes of the CAO coupling rate.

Modulation by the QBO of the Relationship between the NAO and Northeast China Temperature in Late Winter

Abstract The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) generally has an in-phase relationship with surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over Northeast China in late winter. The present study shows that such an NAO–SAT relationship becomes stronger during easterly phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), but is relatively weak during westerly phases. Observational evidence reveals that the modulation effect of the QBO on the NAO–SAT relationship over Northeast China is attributable to QBO-induced changes in the spatial structure of the NAO and associated stratosphere–troposphere coupling. During easterly QBO phases, the NAO has a strong connection with the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, facilitating a hemisphere-wide structure of the NAO and thus a downstream extension of NAO signal from the Euro–Atlantic sector toward Northeast Asia. During westerly QBO phases, however, the NAO has a limited connection with the stratospheric polar vortex. In this case, the NAO features a classically regional mode, with the signal in the SAT field mainly confined to the Euro-Atlantic sector. By examining historical simulations from six climate models participating in CMIP6 and including stratospheric processes, it is found that none of these models captures a significant difference in the spatial structure of the NAO and its connection with the stratospheric polar vortex between the easterly and westerly QBO phases in late winter. A key reason may be related to the poor performance of the models in simulating the Holton–Tan effect, which is critical for linking the QBO and NAO. Significance Statement The QBO is the dominant mode of equatorial stratospheric variability and important for seasonal forecasting. This study aims to better understand the surface influence of the QBO by examining the relationship between the NAO and temperature anomalies over China according to the phases of the QBO during boreal winter. Our results highlight the importance of the QBO in modulating the spatial structure and thus climate impact of the NAO via stratosphere–troposphere coupling in observations, while state-of-the-art climate models perform poorly in simulating the QBO-related stratosphere–troposphere coupling and thus the QBO–NAO connection. These findings have important implications for seasonal prediction and model development in the future.

Pathways of Influence Between Northern Hemisphere Blocking and Stratospheric Polar Vortex Variability

AbstractWe apply a causal inference‐based framework to test and quantify previously suggested causal relationships between Northern Hemisphere blocking, upward wave‐activity fluxes and stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) variability using reanalysis data. We show that the influence of blocking on the polar vortex is entirely mediated by upward wave‐activity fluxes, as the classical view would suggest. However, the causal pathway is not completely straightforward. In contrast to the vortex‐weakening effect of European blocking, the vortex‐strengthening effect of west Pacific blocking on lower stratospheric wave‐activity fluxes is only partially mediated by upper tropospheric wave‐activity fluxes. In addition, only two‐thirds of the effect of upper tropospheric wave‐activity fluxes on polar vortex variability is mediated by lower stratospheric wave‐activity fluxes. We also show that sudden stratospheric warmings are not entirely explainable in terms of upward wave‐activity fluxes. These findings help clarify the pathways of influence between blocking and SPV variability.

The stratosphere: a review of the dynamics and variability

Abstract. Large-scale, intra-seasonal to inter-annual variability of the stratosphere is reviewed. Much of the variability is dynamical and induced by waves emanating from the troposphere. It is largely characterized by fluctuations in the strength of the polar vortex in winter and a quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial winds. Existing theories for the variability are generally formulated in terms of wave–mean-flow interactions, with refinements due, in part, to teleconnections between the tropics and extratropics. Climate and seasonal forecast models are able to reproduce much of the observed polar stratospheric variability and are increasingly successful in the tropics too. Compared to the troposphere the models display longer predictability timescales for variations within the stratosphere. Despite containing just ∼17 % of the atmosphere's mass, the stratosphere's variability exerts a powerful downward influence on the troposphere that can affect surface extremes. The stratosphere is therefore a useful source of additional skill for surface predictions. However, a complete dynamical explanation for the downward coupling is yet to be established.

Calibration and Uncertainty Quantification of a Gravity Wave Parameterization: A Case Study of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in an Intermediate Complexity Climate Model

AbstractThe drag due to breaking atmospheric gravity waves plays a leading order role in driving the middle atmosphere circulation, but as their horizontal wavelength range from tens to thousands of kilometers, part of their spectrum must be parameterized in climate models. Gravity wave parameterizations prescribe a source spectrum of waves in the lower atmosphere and allow these to propagate upwards until they either dissipate or break, where they deposit drag on the large‐scale flow. These parameterizations are a source of uncertainty in climate modeling which is generally not quantified. Here, we explore the uncertainty associated with a non‐orographic gravity wave parameterization given an assumed parameterization structure within a global climate model of intermediate complexity, using the Calibrate, Emulate and Sample (CES) method. We first calibrate the uncertain parameters that define the gravity wave source spectrum in the tropics, to obtain climate model settings that are consistent with properties of the primary mode of tropical stratospheric variability, the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Then we use a Gaussian process emulator to sample the calibrated distribution of parameters and quantify the uncertainty of these parameter choices. We find that the resulting parametric uncertainties on the QBO period and amplitude are of a similar magnitude to the internal variability under a 2xCO2 forcing.

On the Relative Importance of Stratospheric and Tropospheric Drivers for the North Atlantic Jet Response to Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events

Abstract Roughly two-thirds of the observed sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are followed by an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet in the North Atlantic, while the other events generally show a poleward shift. It is however not resolved which drivers lead to the large inter-event variability in the surface impact. Using an intermediate complexity atmospheric model, we analyze the contribution of different factors to the downward response: polar cap geopotential height anomalies in the lower stratosphere, downstream influence from the northeastern Pacific, and local tropospheric conditions in the North Atlantic at the time of the initial response. As in reanalysis, an equatorward shift of the North Atlantic jet is found to occur for two-thirds of SSWs in the model. We find that around 40% of the variance of the tropospheric jet response after SSW events can be explained by the lower stratosphere geopotential height anomalies, while around 25% can be explained by zonal wind anomalies over the northeastern Pacific region. Local Atlantic conditions at the time of the SSW onset are also found to contribute to the surface response. To isolate the role of the stratosphere from tropospheric variability, we use model experiments where the zonal mean stratospheric winds are nudged toward climatology. When stratospheric variability is suppressed, the Pacific influence is found to be weaker. These findings shed light on the contribution of the stratosphere to the diverse downward impacts of SSW events, and may help to improve the predictability of tropospheric jet variability in the North Atlantic.

Quantifying stratospheric biases and identifying their potential sources in subseasonal forecast systems

Abstract. The stratosphere can be a source of predictability for surface weather on timescales of several weeks to months. However, the potential predictive skill gained from stratospheric variability can be limited by biases in the representation of stratospheric processes and the coupling of the stratosphere with surface climate in forecast systems. This study provides a first systematic identification of model biases in the stratosphere across a wide range of subseasonal forecast systems. It is found that many of the forecast systems considered exhibit warm global-mean temperature biases from the lower to middle stratosphere, too strong/cold wintertime polar vortices, and too cold extratropical upper-troposphere/lower-stratosphere regions. Furthermore, tropical stratospheric anomalies associated with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation tend to decay toward each system's climatology with lead time. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), most systems do not capture the seasonal cycle of extreme-vortex-event probabilities, with an underestimation of sudden stratospheric warming events and an overestimation of strong vortex events in January. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), springtime interannual variability in the polar vortex is generally underestimated, but the timing of the final breakdown of the polar vortex often happens too early in many of the prediction systems. These stratospheric biases tend to be considerably worse in systems with lower model lid heights. In both hemispheres, most systems with low-top atmospheric models also consistently underestimate the upward wave driving that affects the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. We expect that the biases identified here will help guide model development for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast systems and further our understanding of the role of the stratosphere in predictive skill in the troposphere.

Tropospheric Response to Stratospheric Variability via Lagged Quantile Regression

AbstractStratospheric variability may affect tropospheric weather on time scales between a few weeks and a few months, thus providing great potential for sub‐seasonal to seasonal weather forecasts of extremes. Unlike standard linear regression, which is based on the conditional mean of the response variable, lagged quantile regression is used here, which enables modeling the response variable's complete conditional distribution. Using the ERA5 reanalysis, we explore the relation of prominent teleconnection indices and gridded tropospheric fields to the stratosphere during boreal winter for various quantiles and lags. Significant differences in duration, strength, and direction of the stratosphere‐troposphere connection in outer quantiles compared to the median are identified. In particular, tropospheric extremes and their relation to the polar vortex strength are discussed, and an outlook is given.

Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts

Abstract. Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential source of forecast skill for surface climate on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Realizing this skill in operational subseasonal forecast models remains a challenge, as models must capture both the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortices in addition to their coupling to the troposphere. The processes involved in this coupling remain a topic of open research. We present here the Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) project. SNAPSI is a new model intercomparison protocol designed to study the role of the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex disturbances for surface predictability in subseasonal to seasonal forecast models. Based on a set of controlled, subseasonal ensemble forecasts of three recent events, the protocol aims to address four main scientific goals. First, to quantify the impact of improved stratospheric forecasts on near-surface forecast skill. Second, to attribute specific extreme events to stratospheric variability. Third, to assess the mechanisms by which the stratosphere influences the troposphere in the forecast models. Fourth, to investigate the wave processes that lead to the stratospheric anomalies themselves. Although not a primary focus, the experiments are furthermore expected to shed light on coupling between the tropical stratosphere and troposphere. The output requested will allow for a more detailed, process-based community analysis than has been possible with existing databases of subseasonal forecasts.

Comparative analysis of variability in the mid-latitude stratosphere and ionosphere in winter periods

In this work, we perform a joint analysis of the spatial-temporal dynamics of ionospheric and stratospheric variability (with scales characteristic of internal gravity waves) at different longitudes of midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. We analyze the winter periods of 2012–2013 and 2018–2019 when strong midwinter sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) occurred. An increase in the variability in the stratosphere is shown to occur in a limited latitude interval 40°–60° N in the region of existence of a winter circumpolar vortex. Under SSW conditions, the generation of wave disturbances in the stratosphere ceases manifesting itself in a significant decrease in the stratospheric variability index. Similar behavior is noted in the spatial-temporal dynamics of the index of the total electron content variability. The level of ionospheric variability at midlatitudes decreases significantly after SSW peaks. The decrease in the ionospheric variability can be explained by a reduction in wave generation in the stratosphere, associated with the destruction of the circumpolar vortex during SSWs

Сравнительный анализ возмущенности в среднеширотной стратосфере и ионосфере в зимние периоды

In this work, we perform a joint analysis of the spatial-temporal dynamics of ionospheric and stratospheric variability (with scales characteristic of internal gravity waves) at different longitudes of midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. We analyze the winter periods of 2012–2013 and 2018–2019 when strong midwinter sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) occurred. An increase in the variability in the stratosphere is shown to occur in a limited latitude interval 40°–60° N in the region of existence of a winter circumpolar vortex. Under SSW conditions, the generation of wave disturbances in the stratosphere ceases manifesting itself in a significant decrease in the stratospheric variability index. Similar behavior is noted in the spatial-temporal dynamics of the index of the total electron content variability. The level of ionospheric variability at midlatitudes decreases significantly after SSW peaks. The decrease in the ionospheric variability can be explained by a reduction in wave generation in the stratosphere, associated with the destruction of the circumpolar vortex during SSWs

Relationship between southern hemispheric jet variability and forced response: the role of the stratosphere

Abstract. Climate models show a wide range of southern hemispheric jet responses to greenhouse gas forcing. One approach to constrain the future jet response is by utilising the fluctuation–dissipation theorem (FDT) which links the forced response to internal variability timescales, with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) the most dominant mode of variability of the southern hemispheric jet. We show that interannual stratospheric variability approximately doubles the SAM timescale during austral summer in both re-analysis data and models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phases 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6). Using a simple barotropic model, we demonstrate how the enhanced SAM timescale subsequently leads to an overestimate of the forced jet response based on the FDT, and we introduce a method to correct for the stratospheric influence. This result helps to resolve a previously identified discrepancy between the seasonality of jet response and the internal variability timescale. However, even after accounting for this influence, the SAM timescale cannot explain inter-model differences in the forced jet shift across CMIP models during austral summer.

Global Middle-Atmosphere Response to Winter Stratospheric Variability in SABER and MLS Mean Temperature

Abstract Satellite observations of middle-atmosphere temperature are used to investigate the short-term global response to planetary wave activity in the winter stratosphere. The focus is on the relation between variations in the winter and summer hemispheres. The analysis uses observations from Thermosphere–Ionosphere–Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) for 2002–21 and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) for 2004–21, and reanalysis temperatures and winds from MERRA-2 for 2002–21. We calculate temporal correlations of the Eliassen–Palm flux divergence in the winter stratosphere with global temperature. Results show a robust perturbation extending to midlatitudes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratosphere during Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter. An increase in wave forcing is followed by a decrease in temperatures over the depth of the stratosphere in the SH, peaking at a lag of 3 days. Summer mesospheric temperature perturbations of the opposite sign are seen in many winters. Comparable signals in the NH summer middle-atmosphere are present during some SH winters but are weaker and less consistent than those in the SH during NH winter. A diagnostic evaluation of the patterns of correlation, the mesospheric zonal winds, and the stability criteria suggests that the temperature perturbations in the midlatitude summer mesosphere are more closely associated with the summer stratosphere directly below than with the wave activity in the winter stratosphere. This suggests that the interhemispheric coupling in the stratosphere is driving or contributing to the coupling between the winter stratosphere and the summer mesosphere that has been reported in several investigations. Significance Statement There are many instances in which one part of the atmosphere is found to regularly respond to perturbations occurring in a distant region. In this study, we use observations to investigate one such pattern: temperature changes at high altitude (60–100 km) in the summer that follow dynamical changes near the winter pole at 40–60 km. Such analysis is useful to understand which physical processes contribute to the global connectivity and variability of the atmosphere.

Uncertainty in the Winter Tropospheric Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss: The Role of Stratospheric Polar Vortex Internal Variability

Abstract Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly over the past four decades and climate models project a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean by the middle of this century, with attendant consequences for regional climate. However, modeling studies lack consensus on how the large-scale atmospheric circulation will respond to Arctic sea ice loss. In this study, the authors conduct a series of 200-member ensemble experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) to isolate the atmospheric response to past and future sea ice loss following the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) protocol. They find that the stratospheric polar vortex response is small compared to internal variability, which in turn influences the signal-to-noise ratio of the wintertime tropospheric circulation response to ice loss. In particular, a strong (weak) stratospheric polar vortex induces a positive (negative) tropospheric northern annular mode (and North Atlantic Oscillation), obscuring the forced component of the tropospheric response, even in 100-member averages. Stratospheric internal variability is closely tied to upward wave propagation from the troposphere and can be explained by linear wave interference between the anomalous and climatological planetary waves. Implications for the detection of recent observed trends and model realism are also presented. These results highlight the inherent uncertainty of the large-scale tropospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss arising from stratospheric internal variability.

Interactions between the stratospheric polar vortex and Atlantic circulation on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales

Abstract. Variations in the strength of the Northern Hemisphere winter polar stratospheric vortex can influence surface variability in the Atlantic sector. Disruptions of the vortex, known as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), are associated with an equatorward shift and deceleration of the North Atlantic jet stream, negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and cold snaps over Eurasia and North America. Despite clear influences at the surface on sub-seasonal timescales, how stratospheric vortex variability interacts with ocean circulation on decadal to multi-decadal timescales is less well understood. In this study, we use a 1000 year preindustrial control simulation of the UK Earth System Model to study such interactions, using a wavelet analysis technique to examine non-stationary periodic signals in the vortex and ocean. We find that intervals which exhibit persistent anomalous vortex behaviour lead to oscillatory responses in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The origin of these responses appears to be highly non-stationary, with spectral power in vortex variability at periods of 30 and 50 years. In contrast, AMOC variations on longer timescales (near 90-year periods) are found to lead to a vortex response through a pathway involving the equatorial Pacific and quasi-biennial oscillation. Using the relationship between persistent vortex behaviour and the AMOC response established in the model, we use regression analysis to estimate the potential contribution of the 8-year SSW hiatus interval in the 1990s to the recent negative trend in AMOC observations. The result suggests that approximately 30 % of the trend may have been caused by the SSW hiatus.

Distinct North American Cooling Signatures Following the Zonally Symmetric and Asymmetric Modes of Winter Stratospheric Variability

AbstractThis paper compares surface signatures of the zonally symmetric and asymmetric modes of stratospheric variability, which describe the strength of the polar vortex and a planetary wave‐1 pattern, respectively. Unlike a weak polar vortex followed by negative Arctic Oscillation–like anomalies, strong stratospheric wave activity features a polar vortex displacement with a deep planetary wave‐1 structure, resulting in positive North Atlantic Oscillation–like North American cooling in about 10 days. Moreover, the linkage between the stratosphere and surface is examined in two reanalyzes and four models of different configurations, which show more robust North American cooling following the displacement of the polar vortex due to strong stratospheric wave activity than the zonally symmetric weakening of the polar vortex. This suggests strong stratospheric wave activity acts as a better predictor for cold spells in the northern U.S. and Canada compared with a weak polar vortex.

Influence of the Solar Cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation

AbstractWe examine the influence of the solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on its pathway from the upper stratosphere to the surface by applying lagged regression analyses to recent observations, historical observations covering 194 years, and an Earth system model simulation covering 165 years. The propagation of the solar signal can well be explained by a top‐down mechanism, but one that was strongly affected by air‐sea coupling. The solar signal first appears in the subtropical upper stratosphere as a temperature signal. The associated zonal wind signal then propagates downward to the surface in response to stratospheric variability known as the Polar‐night Jet Oscillation. The NAO signal tends to appear in February during years of peak solar activity. The solar signal is further modulated such that positive NAO signals tend to appear earlier in winter with increasing years after peak solar activity associated with the appearance of the NAO‐related SST signal. There are also 50‐year scale fluctuations and amplitude modulations of the solar‐NAO signal, but the tendency of increasing NAO amplitude with increasing NAO‐related SST amplitude suggests a strong influence of decadal ocean dynamics on these modulations.

Modeling stratospheric polar vortex variation and identifying vortex extremes using explainable machine learning

Abstract The winter stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) exhibits considerable variability in magnitude and structure, which can result in extreme SPV events. These extremes can subsequently influence weather in the troposphere from weeks to months and thus are important sources of surface predictability. However, the predictability of the SPV extreme events is limited to 1–2 weeks in state-of-the-art prediction systems. Longer predictability timescales of SPV would strongly benefit long-range surface prediction. One potential option for extending predictability timescales is the use of machine learning (ML). However, it is often unclear which predictors and patterns are important for ML models to make a successful prediction. Here we use explainable multiple linear regressions (MLRs) and an explainable artificial neural network (ANN) framework to model SPV variations and identify one type of extreme SPV events called sudden stratospheric warmings. We employ a NN attribution method to propagate the ANN’s decision-making process backward and uncover feature importance in the predictors. The feature importance of the input is consistent with the known precursors for extreme SPV events. This consistency provides confidence that ANNs can extract reliable and physically meaningful indicators for the prediction of the SPV. In addition, our study shows a simple MLR model can predict the SPV daily variations using sequential feature selection, which provides hints for the connections between the input features and the SPV variations. Our results indicate the potential of explainable ML techniques in predicting stratospheric variability and extreme events, and in searching for potential precursors for these events on extended-range timescales.

Influence of Stratospheric Variability on the Winter-Mean Polar Tropospheric Climate

Influence of Stratospheric Variability on the Winter-Mean Polar Tropospheric Climate

Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5

Simulations of Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM) coupled climate model 5th version for the period from 2015 to 2100 under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and severe (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gases growth are analyzed to investigate changes of Arctic polar stratospheric vortex, planetary wave propagation, Sudden Stratospheric Warming frequency, Final Warming dates, and meridional circulation. Strengthening of wave activity propagation and a stationary planetary wave number 1 in the middle and upper stratosphere, acceleration of meridional circulation, an increase of winter mean polar stratospheric volume (Vpsc) and strengthening of Arctic stratosphere interannual variability after the middle of 21st century, especially under a severe scenario, were revealed. March monthly values of Vpsc in some winters could be about two times more than observed ones in the Arctic stratosphere in the spring of 2011 and 2020, which in turn could lead to large ozone layer destruction. Composite analysis shows that “warm” winters with the least winter mean Vpsc values are characterized by strengthening of wave activity propagation from the troposphere into the stratosphere in December but weaker propagation in January–February in comparison with winters having the largest Vpsc values.