Abstract
Simulations of Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM) coupled climate model 5th version for the period from 2015 to 2100 under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and severe (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gases growth are analyzed to investigate changes of Arctic polar stratospheric vortex, planetary wave propagation, Sudden Stratospheric Warming frequency, Final Warming dates, and meridional circulation. Strengthening of wave activity propagation and a stationary planetary wave number 1 in the middle and upper stratosphere, acceleration of meridional circulation, an increase of winter mean polar stratospheric volume (Vpsc) and strengthening of Arctic stratosphere interannual variability after the middle of 21st century, especially under a severe scenario, were revealed. March monthly values of Vpsc in some winters could be about two times more than observed ones in the Arctic stratosphere in the spring of 2011 and 2020, which in turn could lead to large ozone layer destruction. Composite analysis shows that “warm” winters with the least winter mean Vpsc values are characterized by strengthening of wave activity propagation from the troposphere into the stratosphere in December but weaker propagation in January–February in comparison with winters having the largest Vpsc values.
Highlights
The growth of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere leads to climate change characterized by a temperature increase in the troposphere and by a temperature decrease in the stratosphere and mesosphere
The aim of the present study is to investigate changes of the Arctic stratosphere dynamics under the moderate and severe scenarios of the GHG growth in the 21st century using the results of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM) CM5 simulations
The temperature decrease by the end of the 21st century ranges from ~1 K in the lower stratosphere to ~4 K in the upper stratosphere
Summary
The growth of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere leads to climate change characterized by a temperature increase in the troposphere and by a temperature decrease in the stratosphere and mesosphere. This temperature decrease is generally homogeneous in latitude, increases with height and is more pronounced than the temperature increase in the troposphere [1]. The second main factor influencing the stratospheric temperature trends is the ozone layer change. The other important factor to influence temperature is expected increase of water vapor content in the stratosphere throughout the 21st century [4]
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