Strategic Situation Research Articles

Identify the Impact of Settlement on Agricultural Development in the Jordan Valley: تحليل أثر الاستيطان الإسرائيلي على التنمية الزراعية في محافظة أريحا والأغوار (2010- 2019)

The study aimed to identify the impact of settlement on agricultural development in the Jordan Valley, to identify the reality of the agricultural sector in the Jordan Valley and its impact on the social situation and to analyze the impact of social, security and strategic settlement. The researcher used the descriptive approach on the theoretical aspect of the study, by studying the focus of the impact of the Israeli occupation on agricultural development in The Governorate of Jericho and the Jordan Valley. The study showed that Israeli settlement affects agricultural development in the Jericho and the Jordan Valley region and is the main obstacle to the development and growth of the agricultural sector. Long- term strategic plans for the development of the agricultural sector cannot be developed in the study area, and the absence of agricultural development in the study area will have a negative effect on the social, security and strategic situation.

An integrated approach to teaching financial statements analysis using Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters

This paper presents a financial statements analysis (FSA) project that integrates Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters in an introductory MBA accounting course. The project introduces students to leading financial databases that are used in practice and helps them to understand how such databases can be effectively leveraged to analyze both the financial and strategic situations of companies and industries. The paper provides a step-by-step guide for faculty to implement the project leading to an effective learning experience. The project also supports a learning framework that addresses the spirit and intent of the AACSB business standards related to information technology skills and knowledge.

Trust Miscalibration Is Sometimes Necessary: An Empirical Study and a Computational Model

The literature on trust seems to have reached a consensus that appropriately calibrated trust in humans or machines is highly desirable; miscalibrated (i.e., over- or under-) trust has been thought to only have negative consequences (i.e., over-reliance or under-utilization). While not invalidating the general idea of trust calibration, a published computational cognitive model of trust in strategic interaction predicts that some local and temporary violations of the trust calibration principle are critical for sustained success in strategic situations characterized by interdependence and uncertainty (e.g., trust game, prisoner’s dilemma, and Hawk-dove). This paper presents empirical and computational modeling work aimed at testing the predictions of under- and over-trust in an extension of the trust game, the multi-arm trust game, that captures some important characteristics of real-world interpersonal and human-machine interactions, such as the ability to choose when and with whom to interact among multiple agents. As predicted by our previous model, we found that, under conditions of increased trust necessity, participants actively reconstructed their trust-investment portfolios by discounting their trust in their previously trusted counterparts and attempting to develop trust with the counterparts that they previously distrusted. We argue that studying these exceptions of the principle of trust calibration might be critical for understanding long-term trust calibration in dynamic environments.

India’s sea-based nuclear forces and strategic stability in South Asia

ABSTRACT Nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) are traditionally believed to provide assured second-strike capability and stabilize deterrence. This paper contests this classical assumption in South Asia’s context and argues that SSBN capability to become secure and credible deterrent depends upon doctrinal issues, command and communication systems, and operational readiness of SSBN force. In a dyad, if both countries have invulnerable second strike capability, there is less incentive to strike first. Whereas invulnerability of one country incentivizes first strike. In South Asian strategic situation, an assured sea-based second-strike capability may contribute to India’s aggressive nuclear posture. This paper evaluates New Delhi’s induction of SSBNs in light of its stated notion of minimalism, as declared in its nuclear doctrine, and discusses in the context of traditional stability theory associated with the development of SSBN force. This paper primarily considers deterrence stability and crisis stability as two dependent variables to study how India’s sea-based nuclear capability affects strategic stability in South Asia.

Military-technological innovation in small states: The cases of Israel and Singapore

ABSTRACT Both Israel and Singapore engage in military-technological innovation in areas deemed critical to strategic sovereignty. Both countries have consistently championed high levels of funding for military R&D and for maintaining and nurturing indigenous defense industries. Both countries have, to a varying degree, also strongly supported the cultivation of local S&T, including the spin-on of commercial high-technology breakthroughs into the defense sector. Israel has been more successful when it comes to military-technological innovation, mostly because it has to: its strategic situation is much more tenuous than Singapore’s. Singapore, on the other hand, faces much less of an existential threat, and so its military-technological innovation activities are more one of desire than necessity.

The Impact of Energy Internet Enterprise Construction on Power Grid Business Organization Mechanism

The construction of Energy Internet enterprises by power grid enterprises is a key decision for power grid enterprises to grasp the major strategic opportunities, and a key measure for power grid enterprises to deeply understand the internal and external strategic situation and continuously lead of the transformation and development of energy and power. As the core measure, the construction of operation mechanism of power grid business organization needs to clearly study and judge the external environmental factors’ new situation, new influence and new requirements faced by the construction of Energy Internet enterprises such as policies, market, technology, so as to deeply grasp the opportunities and challenges faced by the construction of Energy Internet enterprises.

Attracted by the Dragon or the Eagle? Will China or the U.S. Prevail in the Asia-Pacific in the 21st Century?

ATTRACTED BY THE DRAGON OR THE EAGLE? WILL CHINA OR THE U.S. PREVAIL IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC IN THE 21ST CENTURY?
 The Asia-Pacific region (or Indo-Pacific region) has been the most important and the most dynamic region of the world since the end of the Cold War. With approxi mately two thirds of the global population and similar share in Gross World Product, as well as the presence of major military and nuclear powers (United States, China, Russia, In-dia, Pakistan and North Korea) it has attracted attention of both the public and schol-ars. Therefore, numerous analyses of strategic situation, security, international relations of the region have been written or published by prominent scholars. They have en-compassed either broader Asia-Pacific, Asia and, to lesser extent, Indo-Pacific region or focused on more specific issues. It is not possible to discuss the global body of the literature here, but this essay will briefly compare the work of Enrico Fels1 with other important publications in the field. Generally two categories were selected, firstly – publications dealing with the regional security or international relations in the region (however defined), secondly, analyzing Sino-American relations (sometimes in the context of broader Asia-Pacific policy of the U.S. government).

Developing physical resilience strategies in passive defense according to identification of endangered areas of urban environments (case study: Ahvaz city)

PurposeThis paper aims to focus on reducing the vulnerability of Ahvaz city against urban disasters and lowering the number of casualties and amount of financial losses using modern approaches to develop resilience strategies that can increase urban safety to an acceptable level. The strategic situation of Ahvaz city, because of its abundant resources, the war experience and its location on the boundary regions of Iran, highlights its significance. Ahvaz has a high population and an extended texture, and the existence of extraordinary constructions increases the importance of physical resilience in this city.Design/methodology/approachThe present study investigates built environment aspects such as the urban structure, the urban form, land-use proximity pattern, urban road network and crucial and vulnerable centres in Ahvaz, using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. Hence, the areas at risk in Ahvaz were identified and illustrated in a comprehensive risk assessment map, and then, by using the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats technique and finally by using the Delphi method, some strategies and plans were presented to reduce the level of vulnerability in Ahvaz. Then, these strategies are prioritized by applying quality function deployment (QFD) technique.FindingsThe risk assessment result shows that most parts of Ahvaz’s urban areas are highly at risk. The central and northern parts of Ahvaz have the highest vulnerability at a time of crisis. These zones include district 1 (city centre) and districts 2, 3 and 7 at the city’s margins. The result of QFD process showed that the essential urban resilience strategy is to positively consider the passive defence studies with a physical resilience approach. Also, the proper distribution of strategic points in the city, moving the industrial and oil companies from the peripheral area, and facilitating access to vital, crucial centres to support urban regions are considered the most effective strategic plans.Originality/valueThis paper, with an integrated approach, examines and prioritizes the main physical problems of Ahvaz city based on the spatial analysis and opinions of experts. The physical strategies presented in this paper can significantly reduce the risks and increase the urban resilience of Ahvaz city in the face of crisis.

Executing Strategic Risks Mitigation Plan Amidst VUCA Situation: A Lesson from COVID-19

This study focuses on how higher education institutions, or HEIs, may respond to future strategic risks of an unprecedented magnitude. As the business world grapples with the impact of the pandemic on the corporate strategies, so are the HEIs. The management of strategic risks tends to be viewed as ‘managing risk strategically’ and thus, they are often overlooked despite being found to be far more consequential than other traditional risks. Therefore, incorporating tactics to manage VUCA, which refers to volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity is timely and necessary in the new norm. The findings reveal that the seven basic steps required in developing a strategic risk mitigation plan (SRMP) namely: identify the risks, determine strategic risk triggers, describe the strategic risk (and where it is likely to strike), develop strategic risk mitigation plan, discuss strategic concerns, perform risk analysis and create the strategic risk map or scorecard. The pandemic experience shows that these seven basic steps can be narrowed into four broad categories of risk identification, risk analysis, risk assessment and taking appropriate corrective actions. The study also recommends a rigorous analysis of strategic factors related to the basis of strategies amidst challenging VUCA situations such as Covid-19.

MONOGRAPH BY BRANIMIR FURLAN ON NATIONAL SECURITY STATEGY

MONOGRAPH BY BRANIMIR FURLAN ON NATIONAL SECURITY STATEGY

Creative Learning and Policy Ideas: The Global Rise of Green Growth

AbstractIdeas play an important role in policy change. Theories of policy change, including rational and bounded learning, bracket what needs to be explained: the creation of new ideas. We develop a theory of creative learning in international organizations (IOs). It posits that IO officials respond to new problems and state practices by creating novel concepts and policy ideas. New ideas help officials to manage multiple pressures in their organization’s strategic situation. They enable officials to mediate principal demands while seeking to mobilize client states. We theorize three modes of creative learning that generate new ideas:conceptual combination,translation, andrepurposing. Empirically, we explain a major change in global environmental policy: the rise of green growth ideas among major IOs, including the OECD, the UN, and the World Bank. Green growth ideas include new arguments drawn from Keynesian and Schumpeterian economics, which claim that environmental policies can drive economic growth. We show how these ideas were a creative response to the problem of climate change and emerging state interventions in support of clean energy. Our theory of creative learning applies beyond IOs to domestic politics and takes on added significance in times of transformative change that challenge the scripts of policymaking.

Evaluation of a ceramic enterprise regarding a scope of strategic management as a part of supply chain

Purpose- The purpose of this study is to analyze the only 100% Turkish capital company, which has a significant place in the world in terms of its ceramic production capacity, in terms of strategic management, to guide other companies in the sector and thus increase the share of the ceramics industry in the Turkish economy by further increasing its share in exports. Methodology- Strategic situation analysis was carried out in the study. In this context, the definition of the business, the situation analysis, the market definition, business external environment analysis, business environment analysis, business internal environment analysis, SWOT analysis and financial situation analysis were carried out. The new strategies were examined. Findings- The shipping group company established by the firm has strengthened its brand perception in both domestic and export sectors with a new product introduced to the market and the product it created in the sector. At the same time, it has reached a low opportunity cost with the Italian brand. It is possible to say that the leading company of the sector, which has significant investments abroad, is on the right track with the investments made by the company, new products and new strategies. As a matter of fact, it is possible to see this with the increase in gross profit and operating profit in the annual report. Conclusion- Supply chain design, planning, and operations decisions play an important role in a firm's success or failure. To remain competitive, supply chains need to be well-managed supply chains that adapt to changing technology and customer expectations. In addition to the companies in the ceramics industry, which has a significant share in exports, to make strategic situation analyzes, some changes must be made by the state.

OS MODAIS DE TRANSPORTE DE CARGA NO BRASIL

Obter o conhecimento pleno dos modais de transporte e uma tarefa árdua, porém quem alcança esse conhecimento com certeza terá vantagem competitiva em qualquer situação estratégica relacionada a transporte e também terá a maior probabilidade de obter êxito em suas escolhas. Com isso, através de pesquisa literal o presente artigo busca descrever as principais aplicações e abordar como funciona a gestão dos diferentes modais de transporte na realidade do Brasil, com o objetivo de ampliar a visão para outros meios de transporte que podem ser aplicados na movimentação de cargas. Onde foi constatado que para alcançar esse objetivo e necessário mais seriedade, investimento e continuidade em projetos voltados ao transporte e infraestrutura, para criação e desenvolvimento de vias e rotas que liguem rodovias, ferrovias e hidrovias aos portos e aeroportos aumentando o fluxo de transporte de cargas, reduzindo custos e tempo de transporte, e ainda garantindo qualidade e confiabilidade em todo o processo.

Star Players in the NBA - Decoys or Game-Changers?

In the National Basketball Association (NBA), when an attacking team is trailing by a small margin in the last seconds of
 a game, the coach has to make a critical decision: should he or she design a play for the star player or a non-star player's
 In this strategic situation, the o ensive team can choose to let either the star or the non-star to shoot the ball while the
 defensive team can either double-team the star player or play conventional one-on-one defence. For the purpose of this
 research, star players are divided into two types - perimeter and interior. Given di erent point deficits, an equilibrium
 point is obtained and comparative statics are computed to analyze how the equilibrium will change given a change in a
 player's shot percentage. It is found that the o ensive team should play the star player at most 3 out of 10 times in all
 scenarios.

A busy period approach to some queueing games

The traditional approach when looking for a symmetric equilibrium behavior in queueing models with strategic customers who arrive according to some stationary arrival process is to look for a strategy which, if used by all, is also a best response of an individual customer under the resulting stochastic steady-state conditions. This description lacks a key component: a proper definition of the set of players. Hence, many of these models cannot be defined as proper noncooperative games. This limitation raises two main concerns. First, it is hard to formulate these models in a canonical way, and hence, results are typically limited to a specific model or to a narrow class of models. Second, game theoretic results cannot be applied directly in the analysis of such models and call for ad hoc adaptations. We suggest a different approach, one that is based on the stationarity of the underlying stochastic processes. In particular, instead of considering a system that is functioning from time immemorial and has already reached stochastic steady-state conditions, we look at the process as a series of isolated, a priori identical, and independent strategic situations with a random, yet finite, set of players. Each of the isolated games can be analyzed using existing tools from the classical game theoretic literature. Moreover, this approach suggests a canonic definition of strategic queueing models as properly defined mathematical objects. A significant advantage of our approach is its compatibility with models in the existing literature. This is exemplified in detail for the famous model of the unobservable “to queue or not to queue” problem and other related models.

"No permita Vuestra Majestad que yo reciba daño ni se haya de acabar en mí esta casa tan benemérita a su real corona". Anna Carafa y la búsqueda de un matrimonio provechoso (1624-1636)

El matrimonio de la heredera del principado de Stigliano y el ducado de Sabbioneta, Anna Carafa, supuso, además de un asunto familiar, una verdadera razón de Estado. La situación estratégica del feudo lombardo de Sabbioneta hizo que Felipe IV interviniese en las negociaciones para la elección de un candidato que defendiese los intereses de la Monarquía Hispánica, en contra de los propuestos por la familia Carafa. En medio de estas discusiones, el conde-duque, principal valedor del duque de Medina de las Torres hasta la fecha, se mostró reticente tanto en su elección como cónyuge como en la concesión del virreinato napolitano, lo que pone en cuestión la hasta ahora aceptada hipótesis de que fue el valido el que motivó este enlace.

Evolutionarily Stable (Mis)specifications: Theory and Applications

We introduce an evolutionary framework to evaluate competing (mis)specifications in strategic situations, focusing on which misspecifications can persist over correct specifications. Agents with heterogeneous specifications coexist in a society and repeatedly play a stage game against random opponents, drawing Bayesian inferences about the environment based on personal experience. One specification is evolutionarily stable against another if, whenever sufficiently prevalent, its adherents obtain higher average payoffs than their counterparts. Agents' equilibrium beliefs are constrained but not wholly determined by specifications. Endogenous belief formation through the learning channel generates novel stability phenomena compared to frameworks where single beliefs are the heritable units of cultural transmission. In linear-quadratic-normal games where players receive correlated signals but possibly misperceive the information structure, the correct specification is evolutionarily unstable against a correlational error whose direction depends on social interaction structure. We also endogenize coarse thinking in games and show how its prevalence varies with game parameters.

On the evolution of heuristics and bounded rational behavior in random games

The emergence of heuristics, sophisticated behavior—such as higher levels of Theory of Mind—and substantive rationality in strategic situations can be studied using evolutionary game theory to jointly account for the interactions between players and their environments. Research thus far has been relatively constrained by limiting analyses to a small number of simple games and by focusing on selection operating over actions rather than rules or policies that prescribe behavior in a wide range of games. As a result, the existing literature has not adequately reconciled the significant evidence amassed in the behavioral game theory literature that people use bounded-rational strategies, rather than the normative prescription (Nash equilibrium). I systematically explore the differential costs of implementing decision policies and how evolution is influenced by key environmental characteristics. Detailed maps linking the performance of policies to 3,060 environments are presented demonstrating that the steady state distribution of policies under replicator dynamics is strongly dependent on: a) complexity costs, derived from the opportunity cost associated with the decision time to execute the policies at a process-level and b) the environmental characteristics such as the size of the game, the degree of payoff uncertainty and the degree of mutual interests or conflict between players. Evolution rarely selects for substantive rationality (Nash equilibrium), favoring instead a plethora of bounded-rational policies with varying levels of theory of mind (Level-k models), and in some environmental niches other heuristics such as maxmin or maximization of joint payoffs to players. An intriguing finding is that there exist non-trivial environmental niches with moderate to high complexity costs, where random behavior can be selected for in conjunction with a policy that best-responds to randomness (Level-1). I conclude that while bounded-rational policies do not conform to the standards of substantive rationality, they exhibit both procedural and ecological rationality once the complexity of decision processes and interactions with environmental characteristics are accounted for.

Searching for the “Strong Hand”: The Revolutionary Crisis in Russia in 1917 and the French Assessments on its Termination

This article explores how French diplomatic and military representatives in Russia perceived the growing revolutionary crisis of 1917 and what means they proposed to terminate it. Though the French perceptions of the Russian revolution are rather well researched, scholars paid attention chiefly to French estimates linked to the international and strategic situation of Russia and not to the interior processes in this country. Exploring these questions allows us to widen our understanding of the international context of the Russian revolution and to throw new light on the events of 1917 through the lens of French perceptions. This article is based on the underresearched documents from the Diplomatic archives of the French Foreign Ministry and from the National Archives of France. After having analyzed dispatches of French diplomats and military representatives in Russia during 1917, the author discerns two interlinked tendencies of these observers. First, they notice growing disorganization and “anarchy” in Russia; second, they tried to find and to support political forces in Russia that were capable of restoring “order” and to continue the fight in the war. However, inside this conceptual “frame” there were significant controversies. Conservative French diplomats and the military initially put their hopes in Alexander Kerensky and then in General Lavr Kornilov. After being disappointed in both, they tried to restore “discipline” and to conserve the Eastern front by external forces. Left French observers initially had more enthusiasm for the February revolution and even after the evaporation of these hopes warned Paris not to support counterrevolutionary forces in Russia. In many aspects, discussions about Russian policy of France in 1917 foreshadowed the dilemmas in the relations of Paris with “Reds” and “Whites” during the intervention and the Civil war.

The strategy of informing and tactics of its realization in the polemical discourse of the print mass media

All areas of our life, including interaction between people is now under the influence of technological progress. Information becomes available through various means, including the Internet variants of the press publications. In this sense, the polemical discourse of the print media becomes very popular with participants of communication – both the addresser and the addressee who get the possibility to take part in solving different urgent problems which arise in the society. The specifics of this kind of communication requires careful analysis in order to clarify the mechanisms of achieving the main goal of the polemical discourse of the print mass media, as well as compare them on the material of two languages – English and Russian. Mechanisms of realizing the communicative strategy of informing which are represented by the communicative strategies and have specific features have not been studied yet as the polemical discourse of the print mass media in its complete form has appeared only recently, at the end of the 20th century. The developed methodology was tested on the material from the English-language newspaper “The Guardian” and the Russian-language newspaper “SB. Belarus Today”. As a result, the authors have identified the set of communicative tactics which serve the realization of one of the main communicative strategies of the polemical discourse of the print mass media – the strategy of informing. Moreover, the comparative analysis of the data obtained on the material of two not related languages can be used at practical classes in linguistics to develop students' skills in article writing and modeling strategic situations.