Trade Statistics Research Articles

L comercio exterior del Ecuador, 1890-1950

At the end of the 19th century, Ecuador was integrated into international markets through esports of cocoa. In the mid-twentieth century, bananas became the most important product in Ecuadorian export basket. In this period, Ecuador’s foreign trade operations were subject to dynamics that deserve discussion. From a descriptive perspective, this paper analyzes several elements of Ecuadorian foreign trade: the reliability of local foreign trade statistics registered by Ecuador, its exportable supply, the behavior of imports and, finally, the geographical composition of the foreign trade flows of this small and open economy.

Interrogating the growth of Africa through the opportunity act and the Nigerian textile industry

The study examined the impact of AGOA on the textile industry in Nigeria between 2000 and 2015. The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) was signed into law on May 18, 2000 as Title 1 of The Trade and Development Act of 2000. The Act offers tangible incentives for African countries to continue their efforts to open their economies and build free markets. This paper attempts to answer the question: Did the preferential access to the U.S. market under AGOA increase the volume of textile export from Nigeria to U.S. between 2000 and 2015? Secondary data were used and data collected were analysed using tables and content analysis. The study adopted the Complex Interdependence theory as its preferred framework of analysis and argued that the letter and spirit of AGOA were both in consonance with the neoclassical model of growth for SSA designed by the U.S. We remarked that this liberalised trade introduced by United States in Sub-Saharan Africa through AGOA was equally deepened to strengthen U.S. involvement capacity to this under developed markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study found out that the preferential access to U.S. market under African Growth and Opportunity Act did not increase the volume of textile export from Nigeria to the U.S. between 2000 and 2015. Finally, the study made profound recommendations aimed at maximizing the benefits inherent in the Nigeria-United States trade relationship.

Do imports and exports exacerbate employment volatility? Evidence from Chinese A-share-listed industrial enterprises

ABSTRACT To build a new development pattern in China, it is important to study the impact of import and export trade on its employment. We measured employment volatility and empirically analysed the impact of trade status and import and export intensity on the employment volatility of labour requiring different skill levels in A-share-listed industrial enterprises from 2003 to 2015. We found that firms engaging in import and export trade can significantly reduce employment volatility for both high- and low-skilled labour. Furthermore, differences were noted in the degree of impact on the two skill levels. The results indicate that an increase in export intensity does not reduce employment volatility in high-skilled labour. However, an increase in import intensity significantly reduces employment volatility in both high- and low-skilled labour. Moreover, export and import trade reduce employment volatility by reducing the volatility in firms’ output and wages and by promoting investment in research and development.

Trade and employment in Vietnam: how firms' trade matters

This paper aims to analyse how employment and wages change when a firm's trade status is altered. Using a detailed firm‐level dataset of Vietnamese manufacturing enterprises, the study finds that how firms trade matters for firm employment and wages in Vietnam. The average effect of one‐way trading (exporting or importing) is positive for both firms' total employment and female employment. Direct trading activities are associated with a higher level of employment than indirect trading activities by firms. The female employment effect of direct exports is nearly three times higher than direct imports. Indirect imports hurt firms' total employment and female employment. Both direct and indirect two‐way traders experience higher growth in firm employment than direct‐only traders. However, it is interesting to note that indirect two‐way trading activities have a positive impact on female employment. Furthermore, the commencement of direct import is also associated with greater labour cost advantage.

A Comparative Study of Carbon Trading in China and Internationally

With the development of society and industry, global warming has become an important environmental issue, and carbon trading is a powerful tool to limit greenhouse gas emissions, and more and more countries have started to adopt carbon trading systems to decrease carbon emissions and to improve the environment. This paper lists the major carbon trading markets in the world and compares them with China's carbon trading, examining the development status, implementation and achievements of carbon trading in each country. This study investigates the carbon trading mechanisms in the EU, Japan and New Zealand, conducts a detailed study on carbon pricing, voluntary emission reduction, and policy promotion, points out the strengths and weaknesses of carbon trading in China, and makes suggestions for development and improvement. This will be useful for other carbon trading markets as well, and the expansion of the ranges of carbon trading mechanisms employed will further control carbon emissions. There is a need to establish a multi-level emissions trading system using various market-based instruments from central to provincial levels and to maintain the carbon market using more flexible carbon pricing. This paper hopes to establish a solid market system to achieve the goal of combating global warming by improving all aspects of carbon trading.

The evolution of global soybean trade network pattern based on complex network

ABSTRACT In this paper, a global soybean trade network (GSTN) is constructed based on the international trade data from 1987 to 2020. The results are as follow: (1) From 1987 to 2020, the scale of the network continued to expand, the number of trading countries continued to increase, and the trade links between countries gradually deepened. (2) The power function curve of the node degree distribution shows that the GSTN satisfies the power law distribution, which fits to be a scale-free network. (3) The global soybean export market is highly concentrated. The United States, Brazil and Argentina account for more than 80% of global soybean exports. China is the world’s largest soybean importer. (4) The control ability of core countries in the GSTN has gradually declined, which is shown from that the importance of nodes has gradually weakened, while the trade between peripheral countries is gradually increasing, showing the phenomenon of trade multilateralism. (5) South America has become the global soybean export centre, and Asia has become the global soybean import centre. The trade status of North America has declined, and the overall strength of Africa and Oceania is the weakest.

Chinese Commercial Audacity: Trade Conditions, Boycotts, and Legal Strife in Late Colonial Indonesia

Towards the end of the nineteenth-century Chinese commercial penetration of colonial Java’s interior was held responsible for all economic and social wrongdoings. Chinese entrepreneurs responded to deteriorating sentiments and circumstances with increasing assertiveness towards the colonial government and/or its commercial establishment. Aware of their crucial economic position within the colony, they turned their organizational skills and aptitude in legal matters into the formidable weapon of trade boycotts. These boycotts are examples of a Chinese collective agency in which individual entrepreneurs pooled their knowledge, skills, and resources and acted in concert to shape their future. Chinese traders’ capacity to act forcefully in their given – unfriendly – environment undercuts the persistent tendency to objectify colonial actors excluded from political power. However, far from being passive and reacting objects, these entrepreneurs actively engaged (individually and collectively) with colonial (legal) power structures, displaying purposeful, goal-directed activity along the way. How to account for this uncharacteristically visible conduct? This paper seeks to answer the question by zooming in on the functions of trade in general and, second, late colonial conditions under which trade was conducted in the Netherlands Indies. It is argued that the Chinese trader’s room for manoeuvre stemmed from a unique combination of systemic functions and historical conditions. A combination that provided the Chinese trading community with the necessary (legal) loopholes to act upon enabled the transformation of collective agency into forceful trading boycotts.Keywords: commercial penetration, commercial audacity, Boycotts, Legal Strife, late colonial IndonesiaMenjelang akhir abad ke-19, penetrasi komersial Cina ke pedalaman Jawa kolonial dianggap bertanggung jawab atas semua kesalahan ekonomi dan sosial. Pengusaha Tionghoa menanggapi sentimen dan keadaan yang memburuk dengan meningkatkan ketegasan terhadap pemerintah kolonial dan/atau pendirian komersialnya. Sadar akan posisi ekonomi mereka yang penting di dalam koloni, mereka mengubah keterampilan organisasi dan bakat mereka dalam masalah hukum menjadi senjata boikot perdagangan yang tangguh. Boikot ini adalah contoh agen kolektif China di mana pengusaha individu mengumpulkan pengetahuan, keterampilan, dan sumber daya mereka dan bertindak bersama untuk membentuk masa depan mereka. Kapasitas para pedagang Cina untuk bertindak secara paksa dalam lingkungan mereka yang tidak ramah melemahkan kecenderungan yang terus-menerus untuk mengobjektifkan aktor-aktor kolonial yang dikucilkan dari kekuasaan politik. Namun, jauh dari objek yang pasif dan bereaksi, pengusaha ini secara aktif terlibat (secara individu dan kolektif) dengan struktur kekuasaan (hukum) kolonial, menampilkan aktivitas yang bertujuan dan diarahkan pada tujuan di sepanjang jalan. Bagaimana menjelaskan perilaku yang terlihat tidak seperti biasanya ini? Makalah ini berusaha menjawab pertanyaan tersebut dengan menyoroti fungsi perdagangan secara umum dan, kedua, kondisi kolonial akhir di mana perdagangan dilakukan di Hindia Belanda. Dikatakan bahwa ruang manuver trader China berasal dari kombinasi unik dari fungsi sistemik dan kondisi historis. Variasi yang memberi komunitas perdagangan Cina celah (hukum) yang diperlukan untuk bertindak memungkinkan transformasi agensi kolektif menjadi boikot perdagangan yang kuat.Kata kunci: penetrasi komersial, keberanian komersial, Boikot, Legal Strife, Indonesia kolonial akhir

Determinants of further development and management of modern global maritime containerization (Redefinition after Covid-19 and War in Ukraine)

Maritime containerized shipping has recently suffered from various problems and challenges caused by stochastic shocks such as the Covid -19 pandemic or the war in Ukraine. The pandemic and recent war have clearly indicated shortfalls and weaknesses of maritime containerization and have triggered various attempts at identifying the potential for its further development determined by the new reality (after global shocks and with the consideration of new ones). The paper presents a holistic analysis of factors that globally affect the potential for further development of containerized maritime transport. The entire research design comes as an attempt made at identifying and updating the determinants and predictions of prospects for development of containerization in the current geopolitical situation and global trade conditions in the post-pandemic era, also taking the aspects of the ongoing Russian invasion in Ukraine and the post-war recovery into consideration. The results of the research are presented as a matrix of the eight main determinants Det 1-8 (each supported by two key factors F1, F2) that have been originally identified. Each factor is described by an originally developed calculation methodology (as an Index). The indexes are calculated for the period of 2018-2020 and subsequently discussed. Moreover, there is a potential for further utilization of the presented matrix as a universal tool that will define the future aspects of management in the field of the expected architecture of global supply chains and maritime transport of containerized cargo after the absorption of global shocks.

Emerging from the Haziness of the Multilateral Trade Legal Regime

Abstract This paper aims at bringing some clarity on the notion of State-owned enterprises (SOEs) by exploring its relationship with that of State Trading Enterprises (STEs) through the interpretation of Article XVII of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) 1994. Although this provision is generally considered when the World Trade Organization (WTO) regulatory framework applicable to SOEs is discussed, it leaves STEs undefined. Thus, provided the increasing complexity of SOEs, the link between the latter and the notion of STEs may not be as straightforward. By investigating their dividing line through the interpretation of Article XVII GATT, the analysis will suggest that, although the notions of SOEs and STEs partially overlap, the latter is not able to capture a wider variety of entities than the ones strictly envisaged at the time of the negotiations unless an interpretative declaration is adopted – if achievable – or new multilateral negotiations are undertaken.

Multivariate stability monitoring and shelf life models of deterioration of vegetable oils under real time ageing conditions – Extra virgin olive oil as a main case of study

Modelling quality depletion of oils and establishing their shelf life (or ageing rate) remains a challenge for food industry. A persistent issue in the control of lipid oxidation is deciding which oxidation products are the most suitable to be monitored. Several attempts have been done in this regard, however, the number of parameters that can be considered to assess oil shelf life is excessively wide and the proposed univariate models have proven to be extremely dependent on experimental conditions. For this reason, the methodology for carrying out a multivariate kinetic model is presented, combining physico-chemical and sensory parameters from experimental analytical determinations, and chemometric data processing tools. The main objective is to develop a multivariate shelf life model that allow predicting the number of months in which an extra virgin olive oil complies with the requirements of its commercial category when ageing takes place under standard trading conditions.

Risk Assessment Model of Carbon Emission Market Trading in Pilot Cities Based on Entropy Weight-TOPSIS Method

As an emerging trading mechanism, the carbon market has been widely promoted and paid attention to. On the basis of analyzing the current status of carbon emission market trading in my country’s current pilot cities, this paper considers 12 risk evaluation indicators from four dimensions of external risk, transaction risk, operational risk and management risk, and uses the entropy weight-TOPSIS method to establish a pilot city carbon emissions. Market transaction risk evaluation model, select the pilot city of Guangzhou to carry out empirical analysis. The results show that the operational risk has a greater impact on the pilot cities, and the corresponding risk evaluation indicators should be managed in order to improve my country’s carbon emission market system.

ISSUES AND CHALLENGES IN NIGERIA- NIGER REPUBLIC BORDER SECURITY

This is an open border where contact is predominant and does not function as barrier between the two countries. It is a unique zone of cultural similarities, language, law as well as condition of trade, work, and life. This border is the location for the most intense interactions between the two populations. The border has the highest level of cross-border movement of border residents. Security challenge across this border is attributed to a constant movement of people and goods. This paper is on the issues and challenges of security and social stability along Nigeria-Niger Republic International border. It argues that amongst the various challenges to border security and social stability along the border, corruption, insecurity, porous nature of the border and uncontrollable movement of people are responsible. The persistence of these grim issues makes the border tumbled pathway to heightened state of insecurity and social instability across the border. This is in view of the numerous activities taking place across this border posing security threat. The paper employs reactive re-active model approach as a variant of linkage theory as a tool in understanding the study. Qualitative method was employed for this study. The paper concludes and recommends the study.

한국 주요 수출 상품의 대 호주 및 뉴질랜드에 대한 불변시장점유율(CMS) 분석

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to compare and analyze the international competitiveness of Korea's 20 major export items to the Australian and New Zealand markets with those of China and Japan.
 Research design, data, and methodology: In this study, trade statistics are extracted from the UN Comtrade database and are analyzed using Constant Market Share (CMS) and Market Share models for each item.
 Results: Korea's share of the Australian market is strong, and Korea's share of HS2710 and HS7210 in the New Zealand market is relatively high, and appears to be trending up. Looking at the overall changes in CMS for Korea, China, and Japan in Australia, Korea and Japan show a gradual decrease, while China shows a significant increase in some items.
 Conclusions: Korea needs a strategy to strengthen competitiveness for items in which the market share of rival countries is increasing, and should use a business model that can utilize a RCEP.

THE MODEL OF ASSESSMENT OF GOODS EXPORTS OF UKRAINE TO THE WORLD INTEGRATION ASSOCIATIONS

Foreign trade is an important factor of economic growth and development of open economies. At the same time, the analysis of the state of foreign trade operations is becoming methodologically more complex due to the increase in the number of indicators used and the appearance of new ones. They allow not only to examine the effectiveness of the state trade policy, the set of goods and trade partners, but also to get an idea of the structure of the economy, the level of its development and competitiveness, as well as to assess the quality of the export and import baskets from the point of view of economic growth prospects. Therefore, it is advisable to use models of commodity export valuation, which determines the relevance of the chosen topic. The subject of the study is the methods and models of commodity export evaluation. The purpose of the article is the formation of a model for the evaluation of Ukraine's commodity exports to the integration associations of the world and its approval. Methodology. The theoretical and methodological basis of the conducted research is the dialectical method of cognition, the principles of system analysis and synthesis, statistical processing of information. The methods of structural dynamics were used for the analysis of statistical indicators of commodity exports for 2016-2020; the method of constant market share – for the evaluation of changes in commodity exports of Ukraine for the period under consideration; the method of scientific abstraction is used for the generalization of the obtained results and the formation of conclusions; the graphic method – for the visual presentation of the obtained research results. Results. The article proposes a model for assessing Ukraine's commodity exports to the world integration associations, the main component of which is the constant market share method (CMS analysis). This model is easy to use and allows a qualitative assessment of changes in Ukraine's commodity exports. Approval of the model and assessment of changes in commodity exports of Ukraine was carried out on the international statistical database UNCTADstat for 2016-2020. The data are aggregated into groups according to the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). The following trading partners have been selected for the CMS analysis: EU-27, ASEAN+3, CIS and REST OF THE WORLD. The obtained results make it possible to assess the state of Ukraine's commodity exports and the level of its competitiveness in foreign markets. Practical implications. The practical implications are related to the possibility of using the proposed model for the evaluation of commodity exports, using various options for the classification of goods and integration associations – partners of the exporting country. Value / originality. The originality lies in the development of a model for the assessment of Ukraine's commodity exports to the world integration associations based on the Constant Market Share (CMS) method, which allows to determine to what extent exports change with the growth of the competitiveness of the goods of the exporting country.

미·중 무역분쟁에 따른 항만물동량 영향 분석

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of trade conflicts between China and the U.S.A. on Korean seaborne export and import volumes.
 Research design, data, and methodology: This study employs input-output analysis (i.e. value-added and maritime volume inducing effects) that combined ADB multi-regional input-output tables with port management information system (Port-MIS) statistics from the year 2021.
 Results: Analysis results reveal that the China-US trade conflict induced a large drop in seaborne trade volumes of electrical and optical equipment, chemicals and chemical products, and other nonmetallic minerals. From perspectives on the impact of the USChina trade war, the variable of seaborne trade volume has more elasticity than value-added variables.
 Conclusions: C ombination o f A DB m ulti-regional i nput-output t ables w ith P ort-MIS statistics will expand the scope of trade research. It is expected that the formulated model will contribute to helping forecast seaborne trade volumes according to varying global trade conditions.

The Effect of Money Supply on the Gross Domestic Product in Iraq for the Period2010-2020

The aim of the research is to study the relationship between money supply and GDP in Iraq. The research concluded that the relationship between money supply and GDP is complex and multi-faceted. An increase in the money supply may stimulate economic activity and boost GDP growth, but it can also lead to inflation and currency depreciation. Conversely, a decrease in money supply may reduce inflation but may also lead to a decrease in economic activity and GDP growth. Other factors, such as government policies, international trade, and market conditions, also play an important role in determining the relationship between money supply and GDP

Islamic Law on Trading Using Virtual Reality-Based Metaverse

Islam has given limitations in all human activities in the Qur'an. Islam regulates correct trade procedures such as the fulfillment of legal trade conditions, which include sellers, buyers, goods and agreements. The development of information technology provides major changes to the types and procedures of trade, such as through electronic media (online), or known as the metaverse. Trading in metaverse makes use of a post-reality universe, a continuous and systematic multi-user environment combining physical reality with digital virtuality. Trading in the metaverse requires a medium of interaction between sellers and buyers, one of which is Virtual Reality (VR). Virtual Reality (VR) is a technology allowing users to interact with a computer-simulated environment in the form of an artificial environment or an imaginative environment. In addition to using media for interaction, trading in the metaverse also requires a special currency which can be in the form of crypto coins such as Exie Infinity (AXS), Decentraland (MANA), Sumnium Space (CUBE) obtained from the exchange of real rupiah money into electronic money in the form of crypto coins

Distribution flow of used motorcycles exported from Japan

This study focuses on used motorcycles (UMCs) that are exported from Japan, observes identifiable characteristics of each destination country's UMC exports, and categorizes their distribution flows. Based on the findings from precedent research, results from compiled data of trade statistics, and field surveys, this study reveals the following characteristics. (1) UMCs are continuously exported to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), but the export numbers fluctuate yearly. The UAE also exports large numbers of UMCs with low displacements and UMCs from all statistical categories except for “other.” (2) The number of UMCs exports to Cambodia has been increasing since 2011. In addition, changes in exports from 51 to 250 cc to low displacements of 50 cc and less are identified. Cambodia also exported UMCs from all statistical categories except “other.” (3) The number of UMCs exports to Myanmar has been increasing since 2015, and the primary units exported exhibit “electric motor propulsion as a motor driving force.” (4) Country trade features are identified and UAE is designated as a “transit trade type” and both Cambodia and Myanmar as “domestic distribution types.”

Seasonality and forecasting analysis of the South-East Asian container freight market

PurposeWhile previous studies focused mainly on East Asia to Europe or United States trade routes, in recent years, trade among South-East Asian countries has increased notably. The price of transporting a container is not fixed and can fluctuate heavily over the course of a week. Besides, extant literature only identified seasonality patterns in the container freight market, but did not explore route-varying seasonality patterns. Hence, this study analyses container freight seasonality patterns of the six South-East Asian routes of the South-East Asian Freight Index (SEAFI) and the index itself and forecasts them.Design/methodology/approachData of the composite SEAFI and six routes are collected from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) including 167 weekly observations from 2016 to 2019. The SEAFI and individual route data reflect spot rates from the Shanghai Port to South-East Asia base ports. The authors analyse seasonality patterns using polar plots. For forecasting, the study utilize two univariate models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive neural network (SNNAR). For both models, the authors compare forecasting results of original level and log-transformed data.FindingsThis study finds that the seasonality patterns of the six South-East Asian container trade routes are identical in an overall but exhibits unique characteristics. ARIMA models perform better than SNNAR models for one-week ahead test-sample forecasting. The SNNAR models offer better performance for 4-week ahead forecasting for two selected routes only.Practical implicationsMajor industry players such as shipping lines, shippers, ship-owners and others should take into account the route-level seasonality patterns in their decision-making. Forecast analysts can consider using the original level data without log transformation in their analysis. The authors suggest using ARIMA models in one-step and four-step ahead forecasting for majority of the routes. The SNNAR models are recommended for multi-step forecasting for Shanghai to Vietnam and Shanghai to Thailand routes only.Originality/valueThis study analyses a new shipping index, that is, the SEAFI and its underlying six routes. The authors analyze the seasonality pattern of container freight rate data using polar plot and perform forecasting using ARIMA and SNNAR models. Moreover, the authors experiment forecasting performance of log-transformed and non-transformed series.

Evaluation of the international customs interaction effectiveness by the mirror comparison method of statistical data on foreign trade

Most of the strategic directions for improving customs administration in the Russian Federation, due to their specifics, involve interaction with the customs authorities of foreign states. The article discusses approaches to assessing the effectiveness of interstate customs interaction as a sub-type of the Russian customs service activity. The urgency of the problem lies in the fact that the basis of interstate customs interaction is the principle of minimizing possible customs risks. At the same time, the existing system of indicators used to evaluate the activities of customs authorities does not reflect the effectiveness of interaction in terms of the administration of these risks. The purpose of the study is to consider a process approach to assessing the effectiveness of customs cooperation in the concept of supply chain management. This approach involves an analysis of the activities of not a separate national customs administration, but an assessment of the integration of the actions of states in the context of concluded agreements on cooperation in the field of customs. A cross-border supply chain, according to the author, can have varying degrees of efficiency depending on the type of behavior of national customs administrations within it. The task of the study is to analyze the indicators of Russian and Chinese customs statistics of mutual trade by comparing “mirror” data on export-import transactions, extrapolating the trend of discrepancies to the dynamics of the development of customs cooperation between Russia and China, identifying elements that affect the gaps in mirror data. The results obtained suggest that, given a fairly definite and stable list of reasons for the discrepancies in the data of “mirror” customs statistics, their composition and degree of impact are different in each period of time and are a reflection of the level of interaction between the customs administrations of Russia and China. To verify the proposed approach, the trend of deviations of regional “mirror” statistics of bilateral trade between China and Russia is analyzed in the context of the cooperation key projects development between the Russian Far East and China customs administrations.