Spring North Atlantic Oscillation Research Articles

Carry-Over Effects of Climate Variability at Breeding and Non-Breeding Grounds on Spring Migration in the European Wren Troglodytes troglodytes at the Baltic Coast.

Many studies have linked changes in avian phenology in Europe to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which serves as a proxy for conditions in western Europe. However, the effects of climate variation in other regions of Europe on the phenology of short-distance migrants with large non-breeding grounds remain unclear. We determined the combined influence of large-scale climate indices, NAO, the Mediterranean Oscillation Index (MOI), and the Scandinavian Pattern (SCAND), during the preceding year on spring migration timing of European wren at the southern Baltic coast during 1982-2021. We modelled the effects of these climate variables on the entire passage and subsequent percentiles of the wren's passage at Bukowo-Kopań and Hel ringing stations. Over 1982-2021, the start and median of migration shifted earlier at Hel, but the end of passage shifted later at both stations. In effect, the duration of passage at Hel was extended by 7.6 days. Early passage at Hel was related with high MOI in spring and the preceding autumn. Spring passage at Bukowo-Kopań was delayed after high NAO in the previous breeding season, and high winter and spring NAO. Late spring passage occurred at both stations following a high SCAND in the previous summer. At both locations, an early start or median of passage followed high local temperatures. We conclude that phenology of the wren's spring migration at the Baltic coast was shaped by conditions encountered at wintering quarters in western Europe, where NAO operates, and in the south-eastern Europe, where the MOI operates, in conjunction with conditions in Scandinavia during the previous breeding season. We demonstrated that climate variability in various parts of the migrants' range has combined carry-over effects on in migrants' phenology in Europe.

Two different propagation patterns of spatiotemporally contiguous heatwaves in China

Heatwaves detrimentally affect human health and ecosystems. While previous studies focused on either temporal changes or spatial extents of heatwaves, their spatiotemporal contiguity and propagation patterns are unclear. Here, we investigate the climatology, long-term trends, and interannual variations of spatiotemporally contiguous heatwaves across China during 1961 to 2018. Two distinct propagation patterns are identified by introducing a spatiotemporally contiguous events tracking (SCET) method and the k-means clustering. Type 1 contiguous heatwaves mostly generate over eastern China and move southwestward at shorter distances, while Type 2 heatwaves generally initiate over western China and move southeastward at longer distances, with stronger intensity, longer lifetime, and larger coverage. Since the 1960s, both types exhibit significant increases in frequency, intensity, coverage, lifetime, and traveling distances, with relatively larger magnitudes for Type 2, but significant decreases in moving speed only appear for Type 1. On interannual timescale, preceding winter El Niño prolongs the duration and slows down the moving speed of Type 1 through the western North Pacific subtropical high. Type 2 contiguous heatwaves are intensified by the negative spring North Atlantic Oscillation via the upper-atmospheric Rossby wave train.

In-Phase Variations of Spring and Summer Droughts over Northeast China and Their Relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract Analyses of the standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI), using the season-reliant empirical orthogonal function (S-EOF) method, indicate that the second leading mode of drought over Northeast China features an in-phase variation from spring to summer. Such an in-phase change is closely connected to the persistence of geopotential height anomalies around Lake Baikal. The positive height anomalies around Lake Baikal, with an equivalent barotropic structure in the troposphere, can decrease water vapor transport into Northeast China and induce anomalous descending motion over Northeast China during both seasons, favoring precipitation deficit and high temperature in situ and hence resulting in the synchronous variations of spring and summer droughts. Further investigation reveals that the spring North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) plays a notable role in the in-phase change of spring–summer droughts over Northeast China. The positive phase of spring NAO could induce spring drought over Northeast China directly through its influence on the above atmospheric circulations via a zonal wave train emanating from the North Atlantic. Meanwhile, it can also increase the soil moisture in central Siberia by enhancing the local snow depth. The wetter soil moisture in the following summer, in turn, increases the meridional temperature gradient between the middle and high latitudes and then forces westerly anomalies around 60°N, consequently yielding positive height anomalies around Lake Baikal that favor the occurrence of summer drought over Northeast China. Therefore, the spring NAO is hypothesized to contribute to the in-phase variations of spring–summer droughts over Northeast China through the combined roles of zonal wave train and central Siberian soil moisture. Significance Statement Northeast China suffers from frequent droughts severely in recent decades. Thus, it is urgent to understand the physical mechanisms of drought in Northeast China. Using the season-reliant empirical orthogonal function (S-EOF) analysis, this study indicates that the second mode of S-EOF shows an in-phase change of drought from spring to summer over Northeast China, which is associated with the persistence of geopotential height anomalies around Lake Baikal. Our study further reveals that the spring NAO plays a pronounced role in the in-phase change of spring–summer droughts over Northeast China, through the combined roles of zonal wave train and the soil moisture in the central Siberian plateau. These findings are encouraging for better understanding of drought in Northeast China and are also important for disaster prevention and mitigation.

Impact of the Spring North Atlantic Oscillation on the Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency

A majority of studies have documented basin-dependent factors for predicting interannual variability of tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) over basins. In this study, we find that the spring North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has cross-basin impacts on summer and autumn TCGF over the whole North Hemisphere. The positive NAO suppresses the TCGF in the North Atlantic (NA) but promotes the TCGF in the North Pacific (NP) via modulating the large-scale environment parameters and vice versa. The positive NAO in spring can induce negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the NA, which persists into summer via the ocean memory. The negative SST anomalies cool the overlying atmosphere and damp the precipitation, leading to a low-level anti-cyclonic circulation and thereby counteracting the TCGF over the NA in summer and autumn. The southerly anomaly west of the anti-cyclonic circulation increases the SST and precipitation over the northeast Pacific in summer. Accordingly, a cyclonic circulation appears western NP via Gill response and sustains by the warm advection via the air–ocean positive feedback, which devotes the NP TCGF in summer and autumn. The composite results in high-resolutions numerical model from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 further verify the relationship between the spring NAO and TCGF.

Distinct evolutions of haze pollution from winter to the following spring over the North China Plain: role of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies

Abstract. This study reveals that haze pollution (HP) over the North China Plain (NCP) in winter can persist to the following spring during most years. The persistence of haze pollution over the NCP (HPNCP) is attributed to the maintenance of an anticyclonic anomaly (AA) over northeast Asia and southerly wind anomalies over the NCP. Southerly wind anomalies over the NCP reduce surface wind speed and increase relative humidity, which are conducive to above-normal HPNCP both in winter and spring. However, there exist several years when above-normal HPNCP in winter are followed by below-normal HPNCP in the following spring. The reversed HPNCP in winter and spring in these years is due to the inverted atmospheric anomalies over northeast Asia. In particular, AA over northeast Asia in winter is replaced by a cyclonic anomaly (CA) in the following spring. The resultant spring northerly wind anomalies over the NCP are conducive to below-normal HPNCP. These two distinctive evolutions of HPNCP and atmospheric anomalies over northeast Asia from winter to spring are attributed to the different evolutions of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the North Atlantic. In the persistent years, warm North Atlantic SSTAs in winter persist to the following spring via a positive air–sea interaction process and induce a negative spring North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern, which contributes to the AA over northeast Asia via an atmospheric wave train. By contrast, in the reverse years, cold SSTAs in the North Atlantic are maintained from winter to spring, which induce a positive spring NAO-like pattern and lead to a CA over northeast Asia via an atmospheric wave train. Hence, this study improves our understanding of the characteristics of haze pollution evolution from winter to the following spring and suggests the potential role of North Atlantic SSTAs to serve as an important preceding signal for haze pollution prediction one season ahead over the North China Plain.

North Atlantic Oscillation seesaw effect in leaf morphological records from dwarf birch shrubs in Greenland and Finland

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) determines wind speed and direction, seasonal heat, moisture transport, storm tracks, cloudiness and sea-ice cover through atmospheric mass balance shifts between the Arctic and the subtropical Atlantic. The NAO is characterized by the typical, yet insufficiently understood, seesaw pattern of warmer winter and spring temperatures over Scandinavia and cooler temperatures over Greenland during the positive phase of the NAO, and vice versa during the negative phase. We tested the potential to reconstruct NAO variation beyond the meteorological record through the application of a microphenological proxy. We measured the Undulation Index (UI) in Betula nana epidermal cells from herbarium leaf samples and fossil peat fragments dating back to 1865—exceeding most meteorological records in the Arctic—to estimate imprints of spring thermal properties and NAO in Greenland and Finland. We found negative relations between Greenland UI and late winter, spring and early summer NAO, and mostly positive, but not significant, relations between Finland UI and NAO in years with pronounced NAO expression. The direction of the UI response in this common circumpolar species is, therefore, likely in line with the NAO seesaw effect, with leaf development response to NAO fluctuations in northern Europe opposing the response in Greenland and vice versa. Increased knowledge of the UI response to climate may contribute to understanding ecological properties of key Arctic species, whilst additionally providing a proxy for NAO dynamics.

Climate Change and Teleconnections Amplify Lake Stratification With Differential Local Controls of Surface Water Warming and Deep Water Cooling

AbstractTemperate lakes are experiencing increases in warming and stratification duration while global‐scale teleconnections potentially exacerbate effects of climate change. We examined interannual surface and deep water temperature change and stratification phenology in a long‐term, weekly data set (1985–2017) from a dimictic lake in New York State, USA. We developed a metric, called mixing action, to capture multiple facets about the stratified period. We found warming in surface waters and cooling in deep water. Surface warming was positively correlated with air temperature. Deep water cooling was positively correlated with spring mixing period length and deep water spring temperature, indicating a lag effect. Mixing action was correlated with global temperature anomaly and spring North Atlantic Oscillation index. With increasing summer stratification strength and length, dimictic lakes like Mohonk may continue shifting toward monomictic mixing regimes with increasing summer hypolimnetic anoxia and changing lake biogeochemistry, productivity, and habitat for aquatic organisms.

Unstable relationship between spring NAO and summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific

The present study reveals the fact that the relationship between the spring (April–May) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the following summer (June–September) tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the period of 1950–2018 was not stationary. It is shown that the relationship between the two has experienced a pronounced interdecadal shift, being weak and insignificant before yet strong and statistically significant after the early 1980s. Next we compare the spring NAO associated dynamic and thermodynamic conditions, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, and atmospheric circulation processes between the two subperiods of 1954–1976 and 1996–2018, so as to illucidate the possible mechanism for this interdecadal variation in the NAO-TC connection. During the latter epoch, when the spring NAO was positive, enhanced low-level vorticity, reduced vertical zonal wind shear, intensified vertical velocity and increased middle-level relative humidity were present over the WNP in the summer, which is conducive to the genesis of WNP TCs. When the spring NAO is negative, the dynamic and thermodynamic factors are disadvantageous for the summertime TC formation and development over the WNP. The results of further analysis indicate that the persistence of North Atlantic tri-pole SST anomalies from spring to the subsequent summer induced by the spring NAO plays a fundamental role in the linkage between the spring NAO and summer atmospheric circulation. During the period of 1996–2018, a remarkable eastward propagating wave-train occurred across the northern Eurasian continent, forced by the anomalous SST tri-pole in the North Atlantic. The East Asian jet flow became greatly intensified, and the deep convection in the tropics was further enhanced via the changes of the local Hadley circulation, corresponding to a positive spring NAO. During the former epoch, the spring NAO-induced tri-pole SST anomalies in the North Atlantic were non-existent, and the related atmospheric circulation anomalies were extremely weak, thereby leading to the linkage between spring NAO and WNP TC genesis frequency in the following summer being insignificant.

Strengthened Connection between Springtime North Atlantic Oscillation and North Atlantic Tripole SST Pattern since the Late 1980s

AbstractThis study reveals a marked enhancement in the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Atlantic tripole (NAT) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern during boreal spring since the late 1980s. A comparative analysis is conducted for two periods before and after the late 1980s to understand the reasons for the above interdecadal change. During both periods, SST cooling in the northern tropical Atlantic during the positive phase of the NAT SST pattern results in an anomalous anticyclone over the subtropical western North Atlantic via a Rossby wave–type atmospheric response. The westerly wind anomalies along the north flank of the anomalous anticyclone are accompanied by a marked decrease in synoptic-scale eddies over the midlatitudes as well as cyclonic (anticyclonic) vorticity forcings at the north (south) side. As such, an NAO-like dipole atmospheric anomaly is induced over the North Atlantic, which in turn helps to maintain the NAT SST anomaly via modulating surface heat fluxes. The intensity of the synoptic-scale eddy feedback to mean flow is stronger after than before the late 1980s, which is related to interdecadal increase in the intensity of North Atlantic synoptic-scale eddies. This is followed by a stronger NAO-like atmospheric response to the NAT SST anomaly since the late 1980s. Further analysis shows that changes in the spatial structure of the spring NAO may also partly contribute to changes in the spring NAO–NAT SST connection around the late 1980s. In particular, spring NAO-related atmospheric anomalies are weaker and shift northward before the late 1980s, which reduces the contribution of the NAO to a tripole SST anomaly pattern in the North Atlantic.

Inter‐decadal change of the spring North Atlantic Oscillation impact on the summer Pamir–Tienshan snow cover

Known as the “water tower of central Asia” and a crucial component of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the Pamir–Tienshan snow cover (PTSC) exerts profound impacts on regional and global climate extremes during summer. However, researches on origins of the summer PTSC variability have not attracted adequate attention. In recent works, the spring North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been shown to “prolong” its influence through the North Atlantic tri‐pole sea surface temperature anomalies (Tri‐SSTAs) and affect remote Asian climate in the subsequent summer. The present study discovers that the spring NAO has a significant positive correlation with the summer PTSC in the period 1967–1981, but such connection weakens after 1981. The North Atlantic Tri‐SSTAs induced by the spring NAO during these two epochs can both persist into ensuing summer but excite significantly different downstream atmospheric teleconnections. The Rossby wave train triggered by positive (or negative) Tri‐SSTAs during the 1967–1981 period exhibits an anomalous cyclonic (or anticyclonic) centre over the Pamir–Tienshan region, favouring an excessive (or reduced) PTSC. By contrast, such atmospheric anomaly centre is not evident during the 1982–2014 period. Numerical experiments suggest that westwards shift of the spring NAO northern centre can modulate the Tri‐SSTA pattern via the wind–evaporation–SST feedback, which could further result in the displacement of the atmospheric anomaly centres in the Rossby wave train in summer. Therefore, such change in the spring NAO itself is responsible for the inter‐decadal change of the spring NAO impact on the summer PTSC.

Challenging a 15-year-old claim: The North Atlantic Oscillation index as a predictor of spring migration phenology of birds.

Many migrant bird species that breed in the Northern Hemisphere show advancement in spring arrival dates. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is one of the climatic variables that have been most often investigated and shown to be correlated with these changes in spring arrival. Although the NAO is often claimed to be a good predictor or even to have a marked effect on interannual changes in spring migration phenology of Northern Hemisphere breeding birds, the results on relations between spring migration phenology and NAO show a large variety, ranging from no, over weak, to a strong association. Several factors, such as geographic location, migration phase, and the NAO index time window, have been suggested to partly explain these observed differences in association. A combination of a literature meta-analysis, and a meta-analysis and sliding time window analysis of a dataset of 23 short- and long-distance migrants from the constant-effort trapping garden at Helgoland, Germany, however, paints a completely different picture. We found a statistically significant overall effect size of the NAO on spring migration phenology (coefficient=-0.14, SE=0.054), but this on average only explains 0%-6% of the variance in spring migration phenology across all species. As such, the value and biological meaning of the NAO as a general predictor or explanatory variable for climate change effects on migration phenology of birds, seems highly questionable. We found little to no definite support for previously suggested factors, such as geographic location, migration phenology phase, or the NAO time window, to explain the heterogeneity in correlation differences. We, however, did find compelling evidence that the lack of accounting for trends in both time series has led to strongly inflated (spurious) correlations in many studies (coefficient=-0.13, SE=0.019).

On the Relationship between Spring NAO and Snowmelt in the Upper Southwestern United States

This study examines the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and snowmelt in spring in the upper southwestern states of the United States (UP_SW) including California, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado, using SNOTEL datasets for 34 yr (1980–2014). Statistically significant negative correlations are found between NAO averages in the snowmelt period and timings of snowmelt (i.e., positive NAO phases in spring enhance snowmelt, and vice versa). It is also found that correlations between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and snowmelt are negligible in the region. The NAO–snowmelt relationship is most pronounced below the 2800-m level; above this level, the relationship becomes weaker. The underlying mechanism for this link is that a positioning of upper-tropospheric anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulations over the western United States that are associated with development of the positive (negative) NAO phases tends to bring warmer and drier (colder and wetter) spring weather conditions to the region. The temperature variations related with the NAO phases also strongly modulate the snowfall–rainfall partitioning. The relationship between the NAO and spring snowmelt can serve as key information for the warm season water resources management in the UP_SW.

A new prediction model for grain yield in Northeast China based on spring North Atlantic Oscillation and late-winter Bering Sea ice cover

Accurate estimations of grain output in the agriculturally important region of Northeast China are of great strategic significance for guaranteeing food security. New prediction models for maize and rice yields are built in this paper based on the spring North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Bering Sea ice cover index. The year-to-year increment is first forecasted and then the original yield value is obtained by adding the historical yield of the previous year. The multivariate linear prediction model of maize shows good predictive ability, with a low normalized root-mean-square error (NRMSE) of 13.9%, and the simulated yield accounts for 81% of the total variance of the observation. To improve the performance of the multivariate linear model, a combined forecasting model of rice is built by considering the weight of the predictors. The NRMSE of the model is 12.9% and the predicted rice yield explains 71% of the total variance. The corresponding cross-validation test and independent samples test further demonstrate the efficiency of the models. It is inferred that the statistical models established here by applying year-to-year increment approach could make rational prediction for the maize and rice yield in Northeast China before harvest. The present study may shed new light on yield prediction in advance by use of antecedent large-scale climate signals adequately.

The North Atlantic Oscillation synchronises fruit production in western European forests

Weather and its lagged effects have been associated with interannual variability and synchrony of fruit production for several tree species. Such relationships are used often in hypotheses relating interannual variability in fruit production with tree resources or favourable pollinating conditions and with synchrony in fruit production among sites through the Moran effect (the synchronisation of biological processes among populations driven by meteorological variability) or the local availability of pollen. Climatic teleconnections, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), representing weather packages, however, have rarely been correlated with fruit production, despite often being better predictors of ecological processes than is local weather. The aim of this study was to test the utility of seasonal NAO indices for predicting interannual variability and synchrony in fruit production using data from 76 forests of Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies, Pseudotsuga menziesii, Quercus petraea, and Q. robur distributed across central Europe. Interannual variability in fruit production for all species was significantly correlated with seasonal NAO indices, which were more prominently important predictors than local meteorological variables. The relationships identified by these analyses indicated that proximal causes were mostly responsible for the interannual variability in fruit production, supporting the premise that local tree resources and favourable pollinating conditions are needed to produce large fruit crops. Synchrony in fruit production between forests was mainly associated with weather and geographical distance among sites. Also, fruit production for a given year was less variable among sites during warm and dry springs (negative spring NAO phases). Our results identify the Moran effect as the most likely mechanism for synchronisation of fruit production at large geographical scales and the possibility that pollen availability plays a role in synchronising fruit production at local scales. Our results highlight the influence of the NAO on the patterns of fruit production across western Europe.

Influence of the Summer NAO on the Spring-NAO-Based Predictability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

AbstractThe dominant mode of atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic region is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The boreal spring NAO may imprint its signal on contemporaneous sea surface temperature (SST), leading to a North Atlantic SST tripolar pattern (NAST). This pattern persists into the following summer and modulates the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Previous studies have shown that the summer NAST is caused mainly by the preceding spring NAO, whereas the contemporaneous summer NAO plays a secondary role. The results of this study illustrate that, even if the summer NAO plays a secondary role, it may also perturb summer SST anomalies caused by the spring NAO. There are two types of perturbation caused by the summer NAO. If the spring and summer NAO patterns have the same (opposite) polarities, the summer NAST tends to be enhanced (reduced) by the summer NAO, and the correlation between the spring NAO and EASM is usually stronger (weaker). In the former (latter) case, the spring-NAO-based prediction of the EASM tends to have better (limited) skill. These results indicate that it is important to consider the evolution of the NAO when forecasting the EASM, particular when there is a clear reversal in the polarity of the NAO, because it may impair the spring-NAO-based EASM prediction.

Influence of North Atlantic Oscillation on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall in Relation to Quasi-Binneal Oscillation

The aim of the present study is to find out the possible linkage between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a major ocean–atmosphere coupled phenomena believed to be responsible for the variability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) and its relation with Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) using 60 years (1953–2012) period. Spring North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) has been found to be inversely correlated with the ISMR, which has been highly enhanced during the east years when the NAOI data have been stratified according to the phases of QBO. The effect of NAOI on the ISMR is shown to be strengthening significant in the later years of the study as compared to that of the initial years of the study. This interesting result provides an input to use it as a predictor of the ISMR.

Lagged influence of North Atlantic Oscillation on population dynamics of a Mediterranean terrestrial salamander.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a large-scale climatic pattern that strongly influences the atmospheric circulation in the northern Hemisphere and by consequence the long-term variability of marine and terrestrial ecosystem over great part of northern Europe and western Mediterranean. In the Mediterranean, the effects of the NAO on vertebrates has been studied mainly on bird populations but was rarely analysed in ectothermic animals, and in particular in amphibians. In this study, we investigated the relationships between winter, spring and summer NAO indexes and the long-term population dynamics of the plethodontid salamander Speleomantes strinatii. This terrestrial salamander was monitored inside an artificial cave in NW Italy for 24 consecutive years. The relationships between seasonal NAO indexes and the salamander dynamics were assessed by cross-correlation function (CCF) analysis, after prewhitening the time series by autoregressive moving average statistical modelling. Results of CCF analyses indicated that the salamander abundance varied in relation to the one-year ahead winter NAO (P = 0.018), while no relationships were found with spring and summer indexes. These results strengthen some previous findings that suggested a high sensitivity of temperate terrestrial amphibians to wintertime climatic conditions.

Reproductive Rate and Calf Body Mass in a North-Boreal Reindeer Herd: Effects of NAO and Snow Conditions

Population demographics of northern ungulates are influenced by density and weather conditions. For caribou and reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) that dig in the snow for winter food, snow accumulation and duration of the snow layer are suggested to be influential. Indices based on large-scale alterations of atmospheric pressure such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are connected to climate change and may predict ecological processes better than does local weather. Some empirical evidence of the effects of climate variation is available for Arctic and alpine populations but practically none for sedentary, boreal reindeer. We examined the effects of population density, winter and spring NAO, snow accumulation, and the timing of snowmelt on reproductive success (here the calf/female ratio) and on mean summer body mass of calves in a north-boreal, free-ranging herd of semi-domesticated reindeer in northeastern Finland. In this herd, day of snowmelt explained variation in the calf/female ratio and in the midsummer body mass of calves, more so than NAO, winter snow depth and population density.

Fading indirect effects in a warming arctic tundra

Abstract Indirect interactions in food webs can strongly influence the net effect of global change on ecological communities yet they are rarely quantified and hence remain poorly understood. Using a 22-year time series, we investigated climate-induced and predator-mediated indirect effects on grazing intensity in the tundra food web of Bylot Island, which experienced a warming trend over the last two decades. We evaluated the relative effects of environmental parameters on the proportion of plant biomass grazed by geese in wetlands and examined the temporal changes in the strength of these cascading effects. Migrating geese are the dominant herbivores on Bylot Island and can consume up to 60% of the annual production of wetland graminoids. Spring North Atlantic Oscillation, mid-summer temperatures and summer abundance of lemmings (prey sharing predators with geese) best-explained annual variation in grazing intensity. Goose grazing impact increased in years with high temperatures and high lemming abundance. However, the strength of these indirect effects on plants changed over time. Grazing intensity was weakly explained by environmental factors in recent years, which were marked by a sharp increase in plant primary production and steady decrease in grazing pressure. Indirect effects do not seem to be reversing the direct positive effect of warming on wetland plants. We suggest that cascading effects on plants may lag considerably behind direct effects in vertebrate dominated arctic communities, especially where key herbivore populations are strongly affected by factors outside of the Arctic.

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on streamflow in Western Iran

The Middle East region, where arid and semi-arid regions occupy most of the land, is extremely vulnerable to any natural or anthropogenic reductions in available water resources. Much of the observed interannual-decadal variability in Middle Eastern streamflow is physically linked to a large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this work, the relationship between the NAO index and the seasonal and annual streamflows in the west of Iran was statistically examined during the last four decades. The correlations were constructed for two scenarios (with and without time lag). The associations between the annual and seasonal streamflows and the simultaneous NAO index were found to be poor and insignificant. The possibility of streamflow forecasting was also explored, and the results of lag correlations revealed that streamflow responses at the NAO signal with two and three seasons delays. The highest Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.379 was found between the spring NAO index and the autumn streamflow series at Taghsimab station, indicating that roughly 14% of the variance in the streamflow series is associated with NAO forcing. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.