Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on streamflow in Western Iran

Abstract

The Middle East region, where arid and semi-arid regions occupy most of the land, is extremely vulnerable to any natural or anthropogenic reductions in available water resources. Much of the observed interannual-decadal variability in Middle Eastern streamflow is physically linked to a large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this work, the relationship between the NAO index and the seasonal and annual streamflows in the west of Iran was statistically examined during the last four decades. The correlations were constructed for two scenarios (with and without time lag). The associations between the annual and seasonal streamflows and the simultaneous NAO index were found to be poor and insignificant. The possibility of streamflow forecasting was also explored, and the results of lag correlations revealed that streamflow responses at the NAO signal with two and three seasons delays. The highest Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.379 was found between the spring NAO index and the autumn streamflow series at Taghsimab station, indicating that roughly 14% of the variance in the streamflow series is associated with NAO forcing. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.