Fading indirect effects in a warming arctic tundra

Abstract

Abstract Indirect interactions in food webs can strongly influence the net effect of global change on ecological communities yet they are rarely quantified and hence remain poorly understood. Using a 22-year time series, we investigated climate-induced and predator-mediated indirect effects on grazing intensity in the tundra food web of Bylot Island, which experienced a warming trend over the last two decades. We evaluated the relative effects of environmental parameters on the proportion of plant biomass grazed by geese in wetlands and examined the temporal changes in the strength of these cascading effects. Migrating geese are the dominant herbivores on Bylot Island and can consume up to 60% of the annual production of wetland graminoids. Spring North Atlantic Oscillation, mid-summer temperatures and summer abundance of lemmings (prey sharing predators with geese) best-explained annual variation in grazing intensity. Goose grazing impact increased in years with high temperatures and high lemming abundance. However, the strength of these indirect effects on plants changed over time. Grazing intensity was weakly explained by environmental factors in recent years, which were marked by a sharp increase in plant primary production and steady decrease in grazing pressure. Indirect effects do not seem to be reversing the direct positive effect of warming on wetland plants. We suggest that cascading effects on plants may lag considerably behind direct effects in vertebrate dominated arctic communities, especially where key herbivore populations are strongly affected by factors outside of the Arctic.