Spatial Distribution Of Species Research Articles

THE MOST DANGEROUS INVASIVE NEAR-WATER MAMMALS IN RUSSIA: ENSEMBLE MODELS OF SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION

The potential ranges of three near-water mammals included in the list of the 100 most dangerous invasive species of Russia (Сanadian beaver, Muskrat, American mink) were presented. Maps of suitable habitats of species were created by ensemble modeling of spatial distribution of species (eSDM) based on global species occurrence records in native and invasive range, bioclimatic variables characterizing the current climate. The efficiency of the construction of ensemble models as compared to individual models (iSDM) is evaluated. The results of analysis of consequences of invasions of near-water mammals are presented and the features of control of number and limitation of their distribution in the future on the territory of Russia are considered. The patterns of formation of the invasive part of the range of alien near-aquatic mammals are summarized and suitable regions for their future invasions are predicted.

Bioen-OSMOSE: A bioenergetic marine ecosystem model with physiological response to temperature and oxygen

1.Marine ecosystem models have been used to project the impacts of climate-induced changes in temperature and oxygen on biodiversity mainly through changes in species spatial distributions and primary production. However, fish populations may also respond to climatic pressures via physiological changes, leading to modifications in their life history that could either mitigate or worsen the consequences of climate change.2.Building on the individual-based multispecies ecosystem model OSMOSE, Bioen-OSMOSE has been developed to account for high trophic levels’ physiological responses to temperature and oxygen in future climate projections. This paper presents an overview of the Bioen-OSMOSE model, mainly detailing the new developments. These consist in the implementation of a bioenergetic sub-model that mechanistically describes somatic growth, sexual maturation and reproduction as they emerge from the energy fluxes sustained by food intake under the hypotheses of a biphasic growth model and plastic maturation age and size represented by a maturation reaction norm. These fluxes depend on temperature and oxygen concentration, thus allowing plastic physiological responses to climate change.3.To illustrate the capabilities of Bioen-OSMOSE to represent realistic ecosystem dynamics, the model is applied to the North Sea ecosystem. The model outputs are confronted with population biomass, catch, maturity ogive, mean size-at-age and diet data of each species of the fish community. The model succeeds in reproducing observations, with good performances for all indicators. A first exploration of current spatial variability in species’ bioenergetic fluxes resulting from temperature, oxygen, and food availability is presented in this paper, highlighting the role of temperature.4.This new model development opens the scope for new fields of research such as the exploration of seasonal or spatial variation in life history in response to biotic and abiotic factors at the individual, population and community levels. Understanding such variability is crucial to improve our knowledge on potential climate change impacts on marine ecosystems and to make more reliable projections under climate change scenarios.

Coupled mesoscale–microscale modeling of air quality in a polluted city using WRF-LES-Chem

Abstract. To perform realistic high-resolution air quality modeling in a polluted urban area, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used with an embedded large-eddy simulation (LES) module and online chemistry. As an illustration, a numerical experiment is conducted in the megacity of Hong Kong, which is characterized by multi-type inhomogeneous pollution sources and complex topography. The results from the multi-resolution simulations at mesoscale and LES scales are evaluated by comparing them with ozone sounding profiles and surface observations. The comparisons show that both mesoscale and LES simulations reproduce the mean concentrations of the chemical species and their diurnal variations at the background stations well. However, the mesoscale simulations largely underestimate the NOx concentrations and overestimate O3 at the roadside stations due to the coarse representation of the traffic emissions. The LES simulations improve the agreement with the measurements near the road traffic, and the LES with the highest spatial resolution (33.3 m) provides the best results. The large-eddy simulations show more detailed structures in the spatial distributions of chemical species than the mesoscale simulations, highlighting the capability of LES to resolve high-resolution photochemical transformations in urban areas. Compared to the mesoscale model results, the LES simulations show similar evolutions in the profiles of the chemical species as a function of the boundary layer development over a diurnal cycle.

Spatial patterning of benthic macroinvertebrate communities using Geo-self-organizing map (Geo-SOM): A case study in the Nakdong River, South Korea

Characterizing community responses to environmental disturbances is difficult because of the complexity of heterogeneous ecosystems. A geographical self-organizing map (Geo-SOM) was applied to present the spatial distribution patterns of benthic communities in a river. The benthic macroinvertebrate communities were collected in the mainstream of the Nakdong River in South Korea. Geo-SOM is a machine learning technique that extracts spatial patterns of given data across spatial weight k values (0–5), which control the vicinity of the map, to extract geographical information effectively. In the results, clusters were formed mainly according to the topography on a large scale and anthropogenic impacts on a small-scale showing consistency in spatial patterning for benthic communities in the gradient across different degrees of spatial weight. Geo-SOM provided both comprehensive and detailed views for presenting species-space relationships. Corresponding to the decrease in k value (more weight in geographical information), we accumulated data variations to present a comprehensive view of spatial species distributions. Overall, correlations between species were more associated with latitude rather than longitude. The feasibility of spatial clustering was also demonstrated with the effective differentiation of community indices. Community indices were effectively differentiated into clusters in the Geo-SOM. Finally, Geo-SOM is a useful tool for extracting the spatial distribution patterns of communities in a comprehensible manner for the monitoring and management of communities in aquatic ecosystems.

Keanekaragaman Amfibi Di Areal Kelola Agroforestri KPH Batutegi Kabupaten Tanggamus Lampung

Amphibians are one of the constituent elements of ecosystems that have an essential role as bio-indicators of environmental damage. This study aimed to determine amphibians' diversity and identify amphibians' distribution in the carbon footprint reduction location at PT. Nestlé, KPH Batutegi, Tanggamus Regency, Lampung Province. Data was collected using Line Transect and Visual Encounter Survey (VES) methods, and collected data were analyzed using the Shannon-Wiener index, dominance index, stable equality index, wealth index, and the spatial analysis method to determine the spatial distribution of amphibian species. The results showed moderate amphibian diversity, with the Shannon-Wiener index of 1.85455 low dominance index with a value of 0.08799, a stable equality index with an index value of 0.83755, and a wealth index included in the low criteria with an index value of 2.256214. There were ten species of amphibians from four families, namely katak tegalan (Fajervarya limnocharis), kodok puru (Ingerophrynus parvus), kongkang jangkrik (Rana nicobariensis), katak sejati (Ranidae), kongkang kolam (Hylrana chaconata), bancet rawa (Occidozyga sumatrana), katak pohon bergaris (Polypedates leucomystax), kodok buduk (Bufo asper), katak sisi kasar (Hylarana glandulosa), kodok sawah (Fajervarya cancrivora). The most common amphibian species were found close to the river with a distance of 0-50 m, with an altitude of 600-1000 mdpl, and the type of land cover was dry land agriculture. Amphibian diversity in KPH Batutegi is classified as moderate, so further research is needed to review the existing amphibian diversity after planting and caring for the location.

Land abandonment as driver of woody vegetation dynamics in Tamaulipan thornscrub at Northeastern Mexico.

Vegetation structure is defined as the temporal and spatial distribution of plant species in a particular site. Vegetation structure includes vertical and horizontal distribution and has been widely used as an indicator of successional changes. Ecological succession plays an essential role in the determination of the mechanisms that structure plant communities under anthropogenic disturbances. After an anthropogenic disturbance, such as grazing, forests follow changes in the original composition and vegetation structure, which eventually could restore some of their attributes to become mature forests again. To know how the time of abandonment affects woody plant communities, we ask the following questions: (1) How does the species richness, diversity, and vertical structure (A index) change concerning the time of abandonment? (2) Are species similarities among woody vegetation communities determined by land abandonment? (3) Which woody species have the highest ecological importance in each successional stage? We explored how successional stages after land abandonment mediated the species richness, species diversity (alpha and beta), and ecological importance value index on four areas of Tamaulipan thornscrub. We selected four areas that differed in time of abandonment: 10, 20, 30, and >30 years. The first three areas were used for cattle grazing, whereas the >30-year area was selected as a control since it does not have a record of disturbance by cattle grazing or agriculture. During the summer of 2012, we randomly established four square plots (40 m × 40 m) in each area, separated at least 200 m from each other. In each plot, we recorded all woody individuals per species with a basal diameter ≥1 cm at 10 cm above ground level. We estimated species richness indices, species diversity (alpha and beta), and ecological importance value index. We recorded 27 woody species belonging to 23 genera and 15 families. Fabaceae accounted for 40% of the species. Acacia farnesiana was the most important and abundant species in the first three successional stages. We suggested that older successional stages of Tamaulipan thornscrub promote woody plant communities, characterized by a higher complex structure than younger communities. We observed the highest species similarity between the sites with a closer time of abandonment, while the lowest similarity was shown between the sites with extreme time of abandonment. We conclude that Tamaulipan thornscrub shows a similar trend of ecological succession to other dry forests and the time of abandonment has a high mediation on plant dynamics in the Tamaulipan thornscrub. Also, we stand out the importance of secondary forests for Tamaulipan thornscrub woody plant communities. Finally, we recommended future studies include aspects of regeneration speed, the proximity of mature vegetation, and the interactions of plants with their seed dispersers.

Geographical, environmental, and biotic constraints define the spatial distribution of <i>Diaphanosoma</i> species (Cladocera)

Species distribution is a combination of ecological, historical, stochastic, and evolutionary mechanisms, and is a process that has been severely impacted by anthropogenic activities. Freshwater zooplankton is adequate to assess that combination because it groups cosmopolitan and endemic species. We hypothesized that the spatial distribution of Diaphanosoma species is defined by a complex interaction between factors such as spatial limitation, limitation of environmental conditions, and ecological conditions. We georeferenced the occurrence of Diaphanosoma in Brazil to study the potential distribution of the species, preference of ecoregions, environmental features associated with Diaphanosoma, and their co-occurring patterns. Five species of Diaphanosoma are widely distributed in Brazil. D. spinulosum and D. birgei were widely distributed while D. fluviatile and D. polyspina had a more restricted distribution. The occurrences of Diaphanosoma species were shown to have an association with factors such as the total concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus, pH and, temperature, except in the case of the D. brevireme. Our results show that geographic, environmental, and biotic filters can drive the spatial distribution of species of the genus Diaphanosoma. Therefore, the distribution and spatial occurrence of these species depend on dispersal capacity and spatial restrictions, suitability of the abiotic environment, and ecological interactions.

Boundedness, stability and pattern formation for a predator-prey model with Sigmoid functional response and prey-taxis

This article concerns the structure of the nonconstant steady states for a predator-prey model of Leslie-Gower type with Sigmoid functional and prey-taxis subject to the homogeneous Neumann boundary condition. The existence of bounded classical global solutions is discussed in bounded domains with arbitrary spatial dimension and any prey-taxis sensitivity coefficient. The local stability of the homogeneous steady state is analyzed to show that the prey-taxis sensitivity coefficient destabilizes the stability of the homogeneous steady state when prey defends. Then we study the existence and stability of the nonconstant positive steady state of the system over 1D domain by applying the bifurcation theory and present properties of local branches such as pitchfork and turning direction. Moreover, we discuss global bifurcation, homogeneous steady state solutions, nonconstant steady states solutions, spatio-temporal periodic solutions and spatio-temporal irregular solutions which demonstrate the coexistence and spatial distribution of prey and predator species. Finally, we perform numerical simulations to illustrate and support our theoretical analysis.

Millipedes (Diplopoda) of the Ojców National Park (Poland)

The Ojców National Park (southern Poland) is a small limestone area with outstanding natural values. Until now, there was a lack of information on the spatial distribution of species, their preference of biotopes and microhabitats in the area under study. An interesting question is also the occurrence of native species and the penetration of alien species. Biodiversity can be threatened in such a small, heavily visited by tourists and predominantly forested area, isolated from a similar landscape by agrocenoses and further eroded below the level of the surrounding landscape. Millipedes are soil arthropods, sensitive to calcified soils, stand structure, composition and availability of dead plant biomass, and microclimatic conditions. They are therefore an important reference group of animals for the management of the Ojców NP. In the spring of 2002 and autumn 2004, we carried out detailed inventory research of Diplopoda in the most typical habitats there. We recorded 19 taxa, 2 of which could not be determined to the species level. Together with literature data, a total of 23 species (ca 25% of Polish millipede fauna) are listed here. The occurrence of the moisture-preferring Carpathian mountain species Polydesmus tatranus Latzel, 1882 deserves attention. As important species, bound to preserved deciduous and mixed forests with plenty of dead wood, we consider Glomeris pustulata (Fabricius, 1781) and Nemasoma varicorne C. L. Koch, 1847. The retreat of rare native species as well as invasive aliene species were not recorded. The issue of the unclear nomenclature of the representatives of the genus Trachysphaera (Gervaisia) Heller, 1858 occurring in this area and accumulated throughout history is addressed.

Spatiotemporal variations and correlation factors of species habitat appropriateness in China from a satellite-based perspective

For development planning and biodiversity management in China, it is crucial to understand the past and present patterns of biodiversity. Using satellite data has proven to be an effective means of characterizing the spatial distribution of species based on the species energy hypothesis, thereby supporting the conservation of biodiversity. This study’s specific purposes included assessing different surrogates for annual species richness in China using MODIS as input for the Dynamic Habitat Indices (DHIs) and analyzing the trend and triggers of variation in DHI from 2003 to 2018. We evaluated the linear relationships between the species richness and different DHIs (containing DHI Cum, cumulative productivity; DHI Min, minimum productivity; DHI Var, intra-annual variation of productivity) in China. Further, we conducted a least squares linear regression analysis to investigate the long-term trend of the best performed DHI, as well as an analysis of correlation factors. Our results demonstrated that both DHI Cum and DHI Min had strong explanatory power for estimating species richness, while DHI Var had a poor performance. Among all individual DHIs, GPP-DHI Cum performed the best. The trend analysis showed that the species habitat appropriateness in the areas with high species habitat appropriateness tended to decrease over time, while that in the areas with low species habitat appropriateness tended to increase over time. We also found that the correlation factors for the variation of biodiversity varied spatially. The decrease of biodiversity in the south and eastern coast of China was associated with the decrease of the solar radiation, the increases of the temperature and precipitation, and the expansion of human footprint. By comparison, the increase of biodiversity in the Tibetan Plateau was associated with the increases of the temperature while that in the Loess Plateau was associated with the increases of the precipitation. In addition to climatic factors, the implementations of ecological restoration projects have also driven increased diversity. Besides an improved understanding of biodiversity dynamics, these findings may help to promote biodiversity conservation and policy making.

Climate or diet? The importance of biotic interactions in determining species range size

AbstractAimSpecies geographical range sizes play a crucial role in determining species vulnerability to extinction. Although several mechanisms affect range sizes, the number of biotic interactions and species climatic tolerance are often thought to play discernible roles, defining two dimensions of the Hutchinsonian niche. Yet, the relative importance of the trophic and the climatic niche for determining species range sizes is largely unknown.LocationCentral and northern Europe.Time periodPresent.Major taxa studiedGall‐inducing sawflies and their parasitoids.MethodsWe use data documenting the spatial distributions and biotic interactions of 96 herbivore species, and their 125 parasitoids, across Europe and analyse the relationship between species range size and the climatic and trophic dimensions of the niche. We then compare the observed relationships with null expectations based on species occupancy to understand whether the relationships observed are an inevitable consequence of species range size or if they contain information about the importance of each dimension of the niche on species range size.ResultsWe find that both niche dimensions are positively correlated with species range size, with larger ranges being associated with wider climatic tolerances and larger numbers of interactions. However, diet breadth appears to more strongly limit species range size. Species with larger ranges have more interactions locally and they are also able to interact with a larger diversity of species across sites (i.e. higher β‐diversity), resulting in a larger number of interactions at continental scales.Main conclusionsWe show for the first time how different aspects of species diet niches are related to their range size. Our study offers new insight into the importance of biotic interactions in determining species spatial distributions, which is critical for improving understanding and predictions of species vulnerability to extinction under the current rates of global environmental change.

Trawl counts of nekton during seasonal migrations of pacific salmon in the North-West Pacific, Bering and Okhotsk Seas in 2022

Spatial distribution, abundance and biomass of fish species, cephalopods and jellyfishes are determined in the epipelagic layer on the data of trawl surveys conducted with RV TINRO and RV Professor Kaganovsky in the Pacific waters at Kuril and Commander Islands, western Bering Sea, and Okhotsk Sea in 2022. Modern state of the nekton communities is considered, in particular the state of pink and other species of pacific salmon in summer and autumn seasons. New data on the size-weight composition of pacific salmon are presented; materials for spatial differentiation between their regional groups of pink salmon are available.

Spatial and seasonal variation of arsenic speciation in Pantanal soda lakes

The occurrence of high arsenic concentrations (up to 3000 μg L−1) in water of soda lakes of the Pantanal wetland is a remarkable case of natural arsenic contamination in South America. However, little is known about arsenic speciation in this environment, particularly regarding speciation changes related to lake trophic status and seasonal variations. To fill this gap, arsenic speciation analysis was carried out in surface (SW) and subsurface (SSW) waters sampled in five soda lakes with different eutrophication status, in two dry and one wet season. As(V) was the dominant species in these waters, while As(III), DMA, MMA and likely complex organic species were present in lower amounts. The results allow to conclude that the arsenic speciation in SW and SSW varies seasonally according to the regional wet or dry periods and lake water levels. In eutrophic turbid and in oligotrophic vegetated soda lakes, arsenic speciation was also characterized by spatial differences between edge and center or between the SW and SSW. Cyanobacteria or macrophytes/algae are involved in arsenic biotransformation in soda lakes through its metabolic and detoxification processes. Significant variation in surface water arsenic speciation occurs as a result of seasonal primary production fluctuation or water arsenic concentration changes in the soda lakes, increasing organoarsenics in dry periods, whereas in flood periods, As(V) prevails. Spatial distribution of arsenic species is significantly impacted by biogeochemical conditions at the water/sediment interface in soda lakes.

Spatial Distribution, Diversity Mapping, and Gap Analysis of Wild Vigna Species Conserved in India’s National Genebank

The genus Vigna has several crop species that could be used to feasibly address nutritional security challenges in the subtropical and tropical regions of the world, particularly in climate-changing scenarios. Wild taxa of Vigna are a source of economically important traits and need to be studied. Out of the 34 wild Vigna species reported in India, 928 indigenous accessions belonging to 19 wild Vigna are conserved in India’s National Genebank (INGB) housed at the National Bureau of Plant Genetic Resources, New Delhi. Geospatial mapping has identified diversity-rich areas and the Western Ghats region exhibits the highest Shannon diversity values (H = 1.65–3.0). Using the complementarity procedure, six diversity hotspots were identified for the 34 wild Vigna, and these require utmost priority for exploration and germplasm collection. Due to the meagre amount of information available for wild Vigna, the BioClim model was used to successfully predict the Idukki district of Kerala as a suitable site for germplasm-collecting expeditions. Coastal areas identified as rich in twelve wild taxa, V. bourneae, V. dalzelliana, V. marina, V. sublobata, V. subramaniana, V. vexillata, V. stipulacea, V. trilobata, and V. trinervia, require immediate attention to protect hotspots as well as to collect accessions from these areas for ex situ conservation. A hotspot in the protected forest of Anshi National Park and Bhagwan Mahavira Wildlife Sanctuary was identified as an ideal spot for possible in situ conservation of V. konkanensis, V silvestris, and V. sublobata. The 15 wild Vigna species do not have representation in the INGB, and 11 Vigna species have been identified as endemic species to India. Priority needs to be given to these species for focussed exploration and germplasm collection. This paper discusses the future focus on explorations to be carried out for the collection of the germplasm of wild Vigna species.

Iranian wetland inventory map at a spatial resolution of 10 m using Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data on the Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform

Detailed wetland inventories and information about the spatial arrangement and the extent of wetland types across the Earth's surface are crucially important for resource assessment and sustainable management. In addition, it is crucial to update these inventories due to the highly dynamic characteristics of the wetlands. Remote sensing technologies capturing high-resolution and multi-temporal views of landscapes are incredibly beneficial in wetland mapping compared to traditional methods. Taking advantage of the Google Earth Engine's computational power and multi-source earth observation data from Sentinel-1 multi-spectral sensor and Sentinel-2 radar, we generated a 10m nationwide wetlands inventory map for Iran. The whole country is mapped using an object-based image processing framework, containing SNIC superpixel segmentation and a Random Forest classifier that was performed for four different ecological zones of Iran separately. Reference data was provided by different sources and through both field and office-based methods. Almost 70% of this data was used for the training stage and the other 30% for evaluation. The whole map overall accuracy was 96.39% and the producer's accuracy for wetland classes ranged from nearly 65 to 99%. It is estimated that 22,384 km2 of Iran are covered with water bodies and wetland classes, and emergent and shrub-dominated are the most common wetland classes in Iran. Considering the water crisis that has been started in Iran, the resulting ever-demanding map of Iranian wetland sites offers remarkable information about wetland boundaries and spatial distribution of wetland species, and therefore it is helpful for both governmental and commercial sectors.

Current distribution of two species of Chinese macaques (Macaca arctoides and Macaca thibetana) and the possible influence of climate change on future distribution

Predicting the spatial distribution of species and suitable areas under global climate change could provide a reference for species conservation and long-term management strategies. Macaca thibetana and Macaca arctoides are two endangered species of Chinese macaques. However, limited information is available on their distribution, and their habitat needs lack proper assessment due to complicated taxonomy and less research attention. In recent years, scholars widely used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the impact of global climate and certain environmental factors on species distribution. Therefore, we used the MaxEnt model to predict the spatiotemporal distribution of both macaque species under six climate change scenarios using occurrence and high-resolution ecological data. We identified climatic factors, elevation, and land cover that shape their distribution range and determined shifts in their habitat range. The results demonstrated that temperature range, annual precipitation, forest land cover, and temperature seasonality, including the precipitation of the driest month are the main factors affecting their distribution. Currently, M. thibetana is mainly concentrated in central, eastern, southern, and southwestern China, and M. arctoides is mainly concentrated in three provinces (Yunnan, Guangxi, and Guangdong) in southern China. The MaxEnt model predicted that the suitable habitat for both species will increase with increased greenhouse emission scenarios. We also found that with the further increase in greenhouse emissions M. thibetana is expected to migrate to western China, and M. arctoides is expected to migrate to western or eastern China. This reinterpretation of the distribution of M. thibetana and M. arctoides in China, and predicted potential suitable habitat and possible migration direction, may provide new insights into the future conservation and management of these two species.

Edge Effects in the Distribution of Coleoptera in the Forests of the Center of the European Part of Russia.

Forest edges, which are ecotones, have a significant impact on the spatial distribution of many Coleoptera species. This research was carried out in 2020-2022 on the territory of the Republic of Mordovia (the center of the European part of Russia). Beer traps (with a bait made of beer with sugar) were used to collect Coleoptera. Four plots were selected for the research, which differed in the composition of plants on the edges, adjacent open ecosystems, and types of forest ecosystems. The forest adjoined closely to this open ecosystem. Inside the forest interior, at 300-350 m, a control inner section of the forest with a closed canopy was selected. There were eight traps on each site: edge-below, edge-above, forest interior-below, and forest interior-above, with two traps in each plot. These traps were located at a height of 1.5 (below) and 7.5 m (above) above the ground on tree branches. In total, more than 13,000 specimens from 35 families were recorded. Cerambycidae, Nitidulidae, Curculionidae, and Elateridae had the greatest species diversity. Nitidulidae (71.6% of all individuals), Curculionidae (8.3%), Scarabaeidae (7.7%), and Cerambycidae (2.4%) predominated in total number. There were 13 species common to all plots. At the same time, only four species were found in all traps (Protaetia marmorata, Cryptarcha strigata, Glischrochilus grandis, and Soronia grisea). The abundance of P. marmorata on all plots at an altitude of 7.5 m on the edges was greater. G. grandis prevailed in the lower traps. The abundance of C. strigata and S. grisea varied depending on the location of the trap on different plots. The general pattern was the greatest species diversity of Coleoptera on the edges in the lower traps. At the same time, the total number of all species on the edges was lower. At the edges, the Shannon index was practically always higher or equal to similar indicators in traps located in the forest interior. According to the average values of all plots, it turned out that the number of species of saproxylic Coleoptera prevails inside forest areas, and the largest number of saproxiles was found in the upper traps. An interesting feature for all plots was a more significant relative number of anthophilic species at the edge in the upper traps.

Factors influencing mammalian community occupancy in Dhorpatan Hunting Reserve, Nepal.

The decline in mammalian species diversity is increasing worldwide, with areas characterized by high human activities experiencing more prominent effects. Knowledge of spatial distributions of species and factors acting on them is necessary for effective management. We evaluated community-level occupancy of mammal species in Dhorpatan Hunting Reserve (DHR), Nepal using remote cameras during 15 March-15 June 2022. We used mammal species detections from remote cameras and multispecies hierarchical occupancy modeling to assess the effects of environmental and anthropogenic variables on community-level occupancy of detected mammal species. We identified a highly heterogeneous mammal species community at DHR with greatest detection probability (0.21) for red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and lowest (0.08) for blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur). Naïve occupancy ranged from 0.31 for giant-flying squirrel (Petaurista magnificus) to 0.84 for red fox. Mammal community occupancy increased with increasing canopy cover and number of livestock detections, but overall occupancy declined close to human settlements. The findings of this study can be used for developing policy at DHR for the management of mammal species through reducing the potential increase of human settlements or livestock grazing.

GEOSPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF FOREST SPECIES IN THE BOTANICAL GARDEN OF RECIFE, PERNAMBUCO, BRAZIL

The adoption of appropriate strategies for the conservation and management of forest ecosystems associated with the Atlantic Forest depends on understanding the pattern of spatial distribution of forest species, mainly in protected areas. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the geospatial distribution of forest species in a fragment of Atlantic Forest (Lowland Dense Ombrophilous Forest) in the Botanical Garden of Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil. The phytosociological study was carried out by the plot method, with 40 plots of 10 m x 25 m, systematically distributed, where all living individuals that showed circumference at 1.3 m above the ground ≥ 15 cm were identified and georeferenced. To identify the existence of floristic similarity between the plots, the obtained data were subjected to hierarchical cluster analysis. The spatial variability of forest species was characterized using geostatistical analysis. The data were interpolated by kriging, followed by the construction of thematic maps of spatial distribution. Hierarchical cluster analysis revealed the formation of two groups of plots. The forest species Artocarpus heterophyllus, Dialium guianense, Helicostylis tomentosa, Hevea brasiliensis, Pouteria durlandii and Thyrsordium spruceanum showed spatial dependence. The use of geostatistics allowed visualizing the spatial distribution arrangements and identifying the concentration sites of these species. Information on the geospatial distribution of forest species can be used for the preservation, conservation and management of forest remnants.

Developing a subseasonal ecological forecast to reduce fisheries bycatch in the Northeast U.S.

Over the past decade, substantial progress has been made in projecting and predicting the spatial distribution of many marine species at seasonal to multidecadal time scales. However, managers and fishers often need to make decisions at much shorter time scales. Subseasonal environmental forecasts, which generate predictions over one to several weeks, can now be combined with species-specific habitat preference data to create ecological forecasts that could facilitate dynamic spatial management. The development of such predictive tools could aid in identifying optimal times and areas for fishers to maximize target catch and avoid nontarget catch. Nontarget catch, or bycatch, can have numerous and potentially severe economic and ecological consequences. Here, we focus on a population of anadromous fish known collectively as river herring (alewife and blueback herring), as they are species of concern and are heavily impacted by bycatch. Using bottom trawl survey data from the Northeast US and subseasonal forecasts of sea surface temperature, we constructed a bycatch risk model to generate probabilistic predictions of river herring distributions in regions frequented by the US mid-water trawl fishery. Assessments of model skill showed that our ecological model performed well in predicting the distribution of river herring and that subseasonal forecasts were effective at 1-week timeframes. There was a clear seasonal effect on forecasted bycatch risk throughout the Northeast US, with particularly high risk in winter and spring months. Importantly, variability in risk was detectable at the weekly timescale and our model identified specific areas and times that fishers should avoid in order to decrease their likelihood of bycatch. The bycatch risk forecast developed in this study is a significant advance from near-real time forecasts and the foundation to build forecast systems by combining species co-occurrence models with subseasonal forecasts. As these subseasonal forecasts are available globally, this approach could be adapted to facilitate the management of other natural resource conflicts around the world.