Current distribution of two species of Chinese macaques (Macaca arctoides and Macaca thibetana) and the possible influence of climate change on future distribution

Abstract

Predicting the spatial distribution of species and suitable areas under global climate change could provide a reference for species conservation and long-term management strategies. Macaca thibetana and Macaca arctoides are two endangered species of Chinese macaques. However, limited information is available on their distribution, and their habitat needs lack proper assessment due to complicated taxonomy and less research attention. In recent years, scholars widely used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the impact of global climate and certain environmental factors on species distribution. Therefore, we used the MaxEnt model to predict the spatiotemporal distribution of both macaque species under six climate change scenarios using occurrence and high-resolution ecological data. We identified climatic factors, elevation, and land cover that shape their distribution range and determined shifts in their habitat range. The results demonstrated that temperature range, annual precipitation, forest land cover, and temperature seasonality, including the precipitation of the driest month are the main factors affecting their distribution. Currently, M. thibetana is mainly concentrated in central, eastern, southern, and southwestern China, and M. arctoides is mainly concentrated in three provinces (Yunnan, Guangxi, and Guangdong) in southern China. The MaxEnt model predicted that the suitable habitat for both species will increase with increased greenhouse emission scenarios. We also found that with the further increase in greenhouse emissions M. thibetana is expected to migrate to western China, and M. arctoides is expected to migrate to western or eastern China. This reinterpretation of the distribution of M. thibetana and M. arctoides in China, and predicted potential suitable habitat and possible migration direction, may provide new insights into the future conservation and management of these two species.