Risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus death attributed to insufficient whole grain intake in seven regions of China, 2005-2018

Abstract

Objective: To estimate the risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) death attributed to insufficient whole grain intake in seven regions of China from 2005 to 2018. Methods: Based on China National Nutrition and Health Surveys and China Adult Chronic Disease and Nutrition Surveillance, ordinary Kriging method and locally weighted regression were used to estimate the level of whole grain intake of Chinese residents from 2005 to 2018. Based on the results of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 and Chronic Diseases Risk Factors Surveillance in China, we calculated the population attributable fraction (PAF), attributable death number and attributable mortality rate of T2DM due to insufficient whole grain intake in people aged ≥20 years in different regions of China, and we used the 2010 Chinese census data to compare the changes in T2DM deaths attributed to insufficient intake of whole grains in seven regions of China. Results: The whole grain intake levels of Chinese people over 20 years old in 2002, 2010 and 2015 were 19.0 g/d, 14.3 g/d and 19.8 g/d, respectively. The estimated overall whole grain intake level was 20.1 g/d in Chinese residents in 2018, and the intake level was 19.4 g/d in men and 20.8 g/d in women. Among the seven regions, the intake level was highest in northern China (47.4 g/d) and lowest in southwestern China (6.0 g/d). In 2018, the PAF was lowest in northern China (12.8%) and highest in southwestern China (19.3%). From 2005 to 2018, the PAF varied in the seven regions, and the PAF in northeastern China fluctuated around 18.5%. Other regions showed downward trends, especially in northern China and northwestern China, decreased by 26.4% and 21.2%, respectively. Over the past 14 years, the number of attributable deaths in the seven regions showed upward trends, with the highest annual average growth rate of 6.7% in southern China and the lowest annual average growth rate of 2.4% in northern China. In 2018, the standardized T2DM mortality rate attributed to insufficient whole grain intake in China was 3.13/100 000, and the attributable mortality was 3.21/100 000 in men and 3.05/100 000 in women. The standardized attributable mortality rate was highest in southwestern China (3.97/100 000) and lowest in northern China (1.78/100 000). From 2005 to 2018, the standardized attributable mortality rate increased by 11.5% in men and decreased by 8.1% in women. The standardized attributable mortality rate in southwestern, southern and central China increased by 23.7%, 21.3% and 4.2%, respectively. The standardized attributable mortality rate in northern, northwestern, eastern and northeastern China decreased by 20.9%, 11.0%, 4.5% and 3.9%, respectively. Conclusion: The whole grain intake level of Chinese residents was low, and the whole grain intake of residents in all seven regions should be increased, especially in the southwest, and men should have more whole grain intake than women to reduce the death risk in patients with T2DM.