Special Report On Emissions Scenarios A1B Research Articles

Linking Landscapes and People --Projecting the Future of the Great Plains

On the Ground • We developed a unique set of landscape projections for the Great Plains that use real land-management parcels to represent landscape patterns at high spatial and thematic resolution. • Both anthropogenic land use and natural vegetation respond in the model to projected changes in groundwater availability and climate change. • Thirty-three scenario combinations were modeled, facilitating landscape planning and mitigation efforts under a range of possible landscape futures. • Change in rangeland from 2014 to 2100 varied from an increase of 4.3% for the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 scenario, to a decline of 23.6% for the SRES A1B scenario. • The spatially and thematically detailed projections are designed for the assessment of landscape interactions with water flow and water quality, species distribution and abundance modeling, greenhouse gas assessments, and other ecosystem services.

Climate-related economic losses in Taiwan

The objective of this study is to quantify the relationship between CO2 emissions and economic losses under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1B and B1. Previous trend is used to formulate predictions with regard to future climate-related hazards and quantify the expected economic consequences for Taiwan. We establish an equation with which to forecast economic losses related to agricultural damage, death toll, and medical expenditures. The results are as follows: 1) according to SRES A2, A1B and B1 projections, cumulative total economic losses of unit CO2 emission between 2013 and 2100 are US$ 75-261/tCO2, US$ 76-215/tCO2, and US$ 75-169/tCO2, respectively; 2) total economic losses related to natural disaster exhibits a strong correlation with GDP between 1991 and 2012, compares to the period from 1971 to 1990 (this is not including the medical expenditure losses in the total economic losses); 3) according to SRES's A1B scenario, predicted total economic losses related to natural disasters are expected to be strongly correlated with GDP between 2013 and 2100.

Assessing the impacts of climate change and tillage practices on stream flow, crop and sediment yields from the Mississippi River Basin

This study evaluated climate change impacts on stream flow, crop and sediment yields from three different tillage systems (conventional, reduced 1–close to conservation, and reduced 2–close to no-till), in the Big Sunflower River Watershed (BSRW) in Mississippi. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to the BSRW using observed stream flow and crop yields data. The model was calibrated and validated successfully using monthly stream flow data (2001–2011).The model performances showed the regression coefficient (R2) from 0.72 to 0.82 and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency index (NSE) from 0.70 to 0.81 for streamflow; R2 from 0.40 to 0.50 and NSE from 0.72 to 0.86 for corn yields; and R2 from 0.43 to 0.59 and NSE from 0.48 to 0.57 for soybeans yields. The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG), was used to generate future climate scenarios. The SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1B, A2, and B1 climate change scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were simulated for the mid (2046–2065) and late (2080–2099) century. Model outputs showed slight differences among tillage practices for corn and soybean yields. However, model simulated sediment yield results indicated a large difference among the tillage practices from the corn and soybean crop fields. The simulated future average maximum temperature showed as high as 4.8°C increase in the BSRW. Monthly precipitation patterns will remain un-changed based on simulated future climate scenarios except for an increase in the frequency of extreme rainfall events occurring in the watershed. On average, the effect of climate change and tillage practice together did not show notable changes to the future crop yields. The reduced tillage 2 practices showed the highest responses of erosion control to climate change followed by the reduced tillage 1 and conventional tillage in this study.

Historical and potential changes of precipitation and temperature of Alberta subjected to climate change impact: 1900–2100

We investigated changes to precipitation and temperature of Alberta for historical and future periods. First, the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope were used to test for historical trends and trend magnitudes from the climate data of Alberta, respectively. Second, the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (A1B, A2, and B1) of CMIP3 (Phase 3 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), projected by seven general circulation models (GCM) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for three 30 years periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s), were used to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on precipitation and temperature of Alberta. Third, trends of projected precipitation and temperature were investigated, and differences between historical versus projected trends were estimated. Using the 50-km resolution dataset from CANGRD (Canadian Grid Climate Data), we found that Alberta had become warmer and somewhat drier for the past 112 years (1900–2011), especially in central and southern Alberta. For observed precipitation, upward trends mainly occurred in northern Alberta and at the leeward side of Canadian Rocky Mountains. However, only about 13 to 22 % of observed precipitation showed statistically significant increasing trends at 5 % significant level. Most observed temperature showed significant increasing trends, up to 0.05 °C/year in DJF (December, January, and February) in northern Alberta. GCMs’ SRES projections indicated that seasonal precipitation of Alberta could change from −25 to 36 %, while the temperature would increase from 2020s to 2080s, with the largest increase (6.8 °C) in DJF. In all 21 GCM-SRES cases considered, precipitation in both DJF and MAM (March, April, and May) is projected to increase, while temperature is consistently projected to increase in all seasons, which generally agree with the trends of historical precipitation and temperature. The SRES A1B scenario of CCSM3 might project more realistic future climate for Alberta, where its water resources can become more critical in the future as its streamflow is projected to decrease continually in the future.

A high‐resolution, multi‐model analysis of Irish temperatures for the mid‐21st century

ABSTRACTThere is a paucity of dynamically downscaled climate model output at a high resolution over Ireland, of temperature projections for the mid‐21st century. This study aims to address this shortcoming. A preliminary investigation of global climate model (GCM) data and high‐resolution regional climate model (RCM) data shows that the latter exhibits greater variability over Ireland by reducing the dominance of the surrounding seas on the climate signal. This motivates the subsequent dynamical downscaling and analysis of the temperature output from three high‐resolution (4–7 km grid size) RCMs over Ireland. The three RCMs, driven by four GCMs from CMIP3 and CMIP5, were run under different Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) and representative concentration pathway (RCP) future scenarios. Projections of mean and extreme temperature changes are considered for the mid‐century (2041–2060) and assessed relative to the control period of 1981–2000.Analysis of the RCM data shows that annual mean temperatures are projected to rise between 0.4 and 1.8 °C above control levels by mid‐century. On a seasonal basis, results differ by forcing scenario. Future summers have the largest projected warming under RCP 8.5, where the greatest warming is seen in the southeast of Ireland. The remaining two high emission scenarios (SRESs A1B and A2) project future winters to have the greatest warming, with almost uniform increases of 1.5–2 °C across the island.Changes in the bidecadal 5th and 95th percentile values of daily minimum and maximum temperatures, respectively, are also analysed. The greatest change in daily minimum temperature is projected for future winters (indicating fewer cold nights and frost days), a pattern that is consistent across all scenarios/forcings.An investigation into the distribution of temperature under RCP 8.5 shows a strong summer increase compounded by increased variability, and a winter increase compounded by an increase in skewness.

Climate change scenarios generated by using GCM outputs and statistical downscaling in an arid region

Two statistical downscaling models, the non-homogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM) and the Statistical Down–Scaling Model (SDSM) were used to generate future scenarios of both mean and extremes in the Tarim River basin,which were based on nine combined scenarios including three general circulation models (GCMs) (CSIRO30, ECHAM5,and GFDL21) predictor sets and three special report on emission scenarios (SRES) (SRES A1B, SRES A2, and SRESB1). Local climate change scenarios generated from statistical downscaling models was also compared with thatprojected by raw GCMs outputs. The results showed that the magnitude of changes for annual precipitation projected byraw GCMs outputs was greater than that generated by using statistical downscaling model. The difference betweenchanges of annual maximum air temperature projected by statistical downscaling model and raw GCMs outputs was notas significant as that for annual precipitation. In total, the magnitude of these increasing trends projected by bothstatistical downscaling models and raw GCMs outputs was the greatest under SRES A2 scenario and the smallest underB1 scenario, with A1B scenario in–between. Generally, the magnitude of these increasing trends in the period of 2081 to2100 was greater than that in the period of 2046 to 2065. The magnitude of standard deviation changes for dailyprecipitation projected by raw GCMs outputs was greater than that generated by statistical downscaling model undermost of combined scenarios in both periods.

Modelling the impact of climate change on the atmospheric transport and the fate of persistent organic pollutants in the Arctic

Abstract. The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) was applied to investigate how projected climate changes will affect the atmospheric transport of 13 persistent organic pollutants (POPs) to the Arctic and their environmental fate within the Arctic. Three sets of simulations were performed, one with present day emissions and initial environmental concentrations from a 20-year spin-up simulation, one with present day emissions and with initial environmental concentrations set to zero and one without emissions but with initial environmental concentrations from the 20-year spin-up simulation. Each set of simulations consisted of two 10-year time slices representing the present (1990–2000) and future (2090–2100) climate conditions. DEHM was driven using meteorological input from the global circulation model, ECHAM/MPI-OM, simulating the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1B climate scenario. Under the applied climate and emission scenarios, the total mass of all compounds was predicted to be up to 55 % lower across the Northern Hemisphere at the end of the 2090s than in the 1990s. The mass of HCHs within the Arctic was predicted to be up to 38 % higher, whereas the change in mass of the PCBs was predicted to range from 38 % lower to 17 % higher depending on the congener and the applied initial environmental concentrations. The results of this study also indicate that contaminants with no or a short emission history will be more rapidly transported to and build up in the arctic environment in a future warmer climate. The process that dominates the environmental behaviour of POPs in the Arctic under a future warmer climate scenario is the shift in mass of POPs from the surface media to the atmosphere induced by the higher mean temperature. This is to some degree counteracted by higher degradation rates also following the higher mean temperature. The more dominant of these two processes depends on the physical-chemical properties of the compounds. Previous model studies have predicted that the effect of a changed climate on the transport of POPs to the Arctic is moderate relative to the effect of proposed changes in emissions, which is confirmed in this study. However, the model studies do not agree on whether climate change acts to reduce or increase environmental concentrations of POPs in the Arctic, and further work is needed to resolve this matter.

Climate change scenarios and its impact on water resources of Langtang Khola Basin, Nepal

Abstract. General Circulation Models (GCMs) successfully simulate future climate variability and climate change on a global scale; however, poor spatial resolution constrains their application for impact studies at a regional or a local level. The dynamically downscaled precipitation and temperature data were used for the future climate scenarios prediction for the period 2000–2050s, under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and A1B scenarios. In addition, rating equation was developed from measured discharge and gauge (stage) height data. The generated precipitation and temperature data from downscale and rating equation was used to run the HBV-Light 3.0 conceptual rainfall–runoff model for the calibration and validation of the model, gauge height was taken in the reference period (1988–2009). In the HBV-Light 3.0, a GAP optimization approach was used to calibrate the observed streamflow. From the precipitation scenarios with SRES A2 and A1B emissions at Kyanging, an increase of precipitation during summer and spring and a decrease during winter and autumn seasons was shown. The model projected annual precipitation for the 2050s of both the A2 and A1B scenarios are 716.4 mm and 703.6 mm, respectively. Such precipitation projections indicate the future increase of precipitation in all seasons except the summer. By the end of the 2050s simulation projects an increase maximum (minimum) discharge of 37.8 m3/s (13.9 m3/s) for A1B scenario and 36.2 m3/s (14.3 m3/s) for A2 scenario. A maximum projected discharge will increase for all seasons except for spring, whereas the minimum will decrease in summer.

Effects of climate change on daily minimum and maximum temperatures and cloudiness in the Shikoku region: a statistical downscaling model approach

In this study, we present a detailed analysis of the effect of changes in cloudiness (CLD) between a future period (2071–2099) and the base period (1961–1990) on daily minimum temperature (TMIN) and maximum temperature (TMAX) in the same period for the Shikoku region, Japan. This analysis was performed using climate data obtained with the use of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). We calibrated the SDSM using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for the SDSM input and daily time series of temperature and CLD from 10 surface data points (SDP) in Shikoku. Subsequently, we validated the SDSM outputs, specifically, TMIN, TMAX, and CLD, obtained with the use of the NCEP reanalysis dataset and general circulation model (GCM) data against the SDP. The GCM data used in the validation procedure were those from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios and from the third generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) for the SRES A2 and A1B scenarios. Finally, the validated SDSM was run to study the effect of future changes in CLD on TMIN and TMAX. Our analysis showed that (1) the negative linear fit between changes in TMAX and those in CLD was statistically significant in winter while the relationship between the two changes was not evident in summer, (2) the dependency of future changes in TMAX and TMIN on future changes in CLD were more evident in winter than in other seasons with the present SDSM, (3) the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased in the southern part of Shikoku in summer in all the SDSM projections while DTR increased in the northern part of Shikoku in the same season in these projections, (4) the dependencies of changes in DTR on changes in CLD were unclear in summer and winter. Results of the SDSM simulations performed for climate change scenarios such as those from this study contribute to local-scale agricultural and hydrological simulations and development of agricultural and hydrological models.

Assessment of future precipitation indices in the Shikoku region using a statistical downscaling model

In this study, we used the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) to estimate mean and extreme precipitation indices under present and future climate conditions for Shikoku, Japan. Specifically, we considered the following mean and extreme precipitation indices: mean daily precipitation, R10 (number of days with precipitation >10 mm/day), R5d (annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 5 days), maximum dry-spell length (MaDSL), and maximum wet-spell length (MaWSL). Initially, we calibrated the SDSM model using the National Center for environmental prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset and daily time series of precipitation for ten locations in Shikoku which were acquired from the surface weather observation point dataset. Subsequently, we used the validated SDSM, using data from NCEP and outputs form general circulation models (GCM), to predict future precipitation indices. Specifically, the HadCM3 GCM was run under the special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios, and the CGCM3 GCM was run under the SRES A2 and A1B scenarios. The results showed that: (1) the SDSM can reasonably be used to simulate mean and extreme precipitation indices in the Shikoku region; (2) the values of annual R10 were predicated to decrease in the future in northern Shikoku under all climate scenarios; conversely, the values of annual R10 were predicted to increase in the future in the range of 0–15 % in southern and western Shikoku. The values of annual MaDSL were predicted to increase in northern Shikoku, and the values of annual MaWSL were predicted to decrease in northeastern Shikoku; (3) the spatial variation of precipitation indices indicated the potential for an increased occurrence of drought across northeastern Shikoku and an increased occurrence of flood events in the southwestern part of Shikoku, especially under the A2 and A1B scenarios; (4) characteristics of future precipitation may differ between the northern and southern sides of the Shikoku Mountains. Regional variations in extreme precipitation indices were not notably evident in the B2 scenario compared to the other scenarios.

Analysis of Future Climate Scenarios over Central Uganda Cattle Corridor

The study employed a Regional Climate Model (RCM), Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies (PRECIS), to examine the future climate scenarios over the central Uganda cattle corridor districts of Nakaseke and Nakasongola in the near future (2021-2050) and mid-century (2051-2080). The study was guided by two questions: what are the projected temperature and rainfall values for the central Uganda cattle corridor in relation to IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and A1B Scenarios for the same periods; how do they compare with the new set of scenarios known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) in the same area for the same period? The scenarios were obtained using PRECIS software and delta methods using R software according to the AGMIP protocols for SRES and RCP; respectively. Results show both SRES A2 and A1B projecting temperature increases in average monthly, seasonal as well as annual for both near future and mid centuryperiods with A2 showing a mean annual temperature increase of 2.5 to 4.4°C in the near future and 4.5 to 6.0°C in the mid century relative to the 1981-2010 average compared to A1B which shows annual temperature increase of 0.7 -1.7°C in the near future and 1.7-3.5°C in the far future. The same trend is observed for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 but the increments are lower for the RCPs compared to the SRES. Projections for rainfall show a slight increase in annual rainfall in both SRES and RCPs. However more rainfall is projected for the second rainfall season of September to November compared to the usual known season of March to May (MAM). The projections also show a shift in rainfall with the usual dry season of December to February (DJF) now becoming wetter than the 1980-2010 average. This shift is consistent in all the scenarios and has also been observed in other studies done in the region. From the results farmers should be advised to take advantage of the projected increases in rainfall especially.

Projection of subtropical gyre circulation and associated sea level changes in the Pacific based on CMIP3 climate models

For all of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRESs), sea level is projected to rise globally. However, sea level changes are not expected to be geographically uniform, with many regions departing significantly from the global average. Some of regional distributions of sea level changes can be explained by projected changes of ocean density and dynamics. In this study, with 11 available Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 climate models under the SRES A1B, we identify an asymmetric feature (not recognised in previous studies) of projected subtropical gyre circulation changes and associated sea level changes between the North and South Pacific, through analysing projected changes of ocean dynamic height (with reference to 2,000 db), depth integrated steric height, Sverdrup stream function, surface wind stress and its curl. Poleward expansion of the subtropical gyres is projected in the upper ocean for both North and South Pacific. Contrastingly, the subtropical gyre circulation is projected to spin down by about 20 % in the subsurface North Pacific from the main thermocline around 400 m to at least 2,000 m, while the South Pacific subtropical gyre is projected to strengthen by about 25 % and expand poleward in the subsurface to at least 2,000 m. This asymmetrical distribution of the projected subtropical gyre circulation changes is directly related to differences in projected changes of temperature and salinity between the North and South Pacific, forced by surface heat and freshwater fluxes, and surface wind stress changes.

Heat-related mortality risk model for climate change impact projection

We previously developed a model for projection of heat-related mortality attributable to climate change. The objective of this paper is to improve the fit and precision of and examine the robustness of the model. We obtained daily data for number of deaths and maximum temperature from respective governmental organizations of Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the USA, and European countries. For future projection, we used the Bergen climate model2 (BCM2) general circulation model, the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B socioeconomic scenario, and the mortality projection for the 65+-year-old age group developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). The heat-related excess mortality was defined as follows: The temperature-mortality relation forms a V-shaped curve, and the temperature at which mortality becomes lowest is called the optimum temperature (OT). The difference in mortality between the OT and a temperature beyond the OT is the excess mortality. To develop the model for projection, we used Japanese 47-prefecture data from 1972 to 2008. Using a distributed lag nonlinear model (two-dimensional nonparametric regression of temperature and its lag effect), we included the lag effect of temperature up to 15days, and created a risk function curve on which the projection is based. As an example, we perform a future projection using the above-mentioned risk function. In the projection, we used 1961-1990 temperature as the baseline, and temperatures in the 2030s and 2050s were projected using the BCM2 global circulation model, SRES A1B scenario, and WHO-provided annual mortality. Here, we used the "counterfactual method" to evaluate the climate change impact; For example, baseline temperature and 2030 mortality were used to determine the baseline excess, and compared with the 2030 excess, for which we used 2030 temperature and 2030 mortality. In terms of adaptation to warmer climate, we assumed 0% adaptation when the OT as of the current climate is used and 100% adaptation when the OT as of the future climate is used. The midpoint of the OTs of the two types of adaptation was set to be the OT for 50% adaptation. We calculated heat-related excess mortality for 2030 and 2050. Our new model is considered to be better fit, and more precise and robust compared with the previous model.

Consistent Differences in Climate Feedbacks between Atmosphere–Ocean GCMs and Atmospheric GCMs with Slab-Ocean Models*

Abstract Climate sensitivity is generally studied using two types of models. Atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) include interactive ocean dynamics and detailed heat uptake. Atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) with slab ocean models (SOMs) cannot fully simulate the ocean’s response to and influence on climate. However, AGCMs are computationally cheaper and thus are often used to quantify and understand climate feedbacks and sensitivity. Here, physical climate feedbacks are compared between AOGCMs and SOM-AGCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) using the radiative kernel technique. Both the global-average (positive) water vapor and (negative) lapse-rate feedbacks are consistently stronger in AOGCMs. Water vapor feedback differences result from an essentially constant relative humidity and peak in the tropics, where temperature changes are larger for AOGCMs. Differences in lapse-rate feedbacks extend to midlatitudes and correspond to a larger ratio of tropical- to global-average temperature changes. Global-average surface albedo feedbacks are similar between models types because of a near cancellation of Arctic and Antarctic differences. In AOGCMs, the northern high latitudes warm faster than the southern latitudes, resulting in interhemispheric differences in albedo, water vapor, and lapse-rate feedbacks lacking in the SOM-AGCMs. Meridional heat transport changes also depend on the model type, although there is a large intermodel spread. However, there are no consistent global or zonal differences in cloud feedbacks. Effects of the forcing scenario [Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B (SRESa1b) or the 1% CO2 increase per year to doubling (1%to2x) experiments] on feedbacks are model dependent and generally of lesser importance than the model type. Care should be taken when using SOM-AGCMs to understand AOGCM feedback behavior.

The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale

Summary This paper presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change on a series of indicators of hydrological regimes across the global domain, using a global hydrological model run with climate scenarios constructed using pattern-scaling from 21 CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3) climate models. Changes are compared with natural variability, with a significant change being defined as greater than the standard deviation of the hydrological indicator in the absence of climate change. Under an SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1b emissions scenario, substantial proportions of the land surface (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) would experience significant changes in hydrological behaviour by 2050; under one climate model scenario (Hadley Centre HadCM3), average annual runoff increases significantly over 47% of the land surface and decreases over 36%; only 17% therefore sees no significant change. There is considerable variability between regions, depending largely on projected changes in precipitation. Uncertainty in projected river flow regimes is dominated by variation in the spatial patterns of climate change between climate models (hydrological model uncertainty is not included). There is, however, a strong degree of consistency in the overall magnitude and direction of change. More than two-thirds of climate models project a significant increase in average annual runoff across almost a quarter of the land surface, and a significant decrease over 14%, with considerably higher degrees of consistency in some regions. Most climate models project increases in runoff in Canada and high-latitude eastern Europe and Siberia, and decreases in runoff in central Europe, around the Mediterranean, the Mashriq, central America and Brasil. There is some evidence that project change in runoff at the regional scale is not linear with change in global average temperature change. The effects of uncertainty in the rate of future emissions is relatively small.

Future Changes of Drought and Flood Events in China under a Global Warming Scenario

This study investigates the impact of global warming on drought/flood patterns in China at the end of the 21st century based on the simulations of 22 global climate models and a regional climate model (RegCM3) under the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1B scenario. The standardized precipitation index (SPI), which has well performance in monitoring the drought/ flood characteristics (in terms of their intensity, duration, and spatial extent) in China, is used in this study. The projected results of 22 coupled models and the RegCM3 simulation are consistent. These models project a decrease in the frequency of droughts in most parts of northern China and a slight increase in the frequency in some parts of southern China. Considering China as a whole, the spatial extents of droughts are projected to be significantly reduced. In contrast, future flood events over most parts of China are projected to occur more frequently with stronger intensity and longer duration than those prevalent currently. Additionally, the spatial extents of flood events are projected to significantly increase.

2070年代8月を対象とした東京・名古屋・大阪における熱中症および睡眠困難の将来予測

This study projects future climate in Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka in summer under the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A1b scenario by the dynamical downscaling method with the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model. Furthermore, impacts of climate change on human health are evaluated by the mid-point impact assessment based on contingent valuation method. The results show that the frequency of days with daytime maximum temperature exceeding 35°C will be doubled in the 2070s in the three metropolises. Willingness to pay (WTP) in order to avoid heat stress is the highest in Osaka, followed by Nagoya and Tokyo. WTP is higher for sleep disturbance compared to heat stroke.

Nutrient limitation reduces land carbon uptake in simulations with a model of combined carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycling

Abstract. Terrestrial carbon (C) cycle models applied for climate projections simulate a strong increase in net primary productivity (NPP) due to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration during the 21st century. These models usually neglect the limited availability of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), nutrients that commonly limit plant growth and soil carbon turnover. To investigate how the projected C sequestration is altered when stoichiometric constraints on C cycling are considered, we incorporated a P cycle into the land surface model JSBACH (Jena Scheme for Biosphere–Atmosphere Coupling in Hamburg), which already includes representations of coupled C and N cycles. The model reveals a distinct geographic pattern of P and N limitation. Under the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1B scenario, the accumulated land C uptake between 1860 and 2100 is 13% (particularly at high latitudes) and 16% (particularly at low latitudes) lower in simulations with N and P cycling, respectively, than in simulations without nutrient cycles. The combined effect of both nutrients reduces land C uptake by 25% compared to simulations without N or P cycling. Nutrient limitation in general may be biased by the model simplicity, but the ranking of limitations is robust against the parameterization and the inflexibility of stoichiometry. After 2100, increased temperature and high CO2 concentration cause a shift from N to P limitation at high latitudes, while nutrient limitation in the tropics declines. The increase in P limitation at high-latitudes is induced by a strong increase in NPP and the low P sorption capacity of soils, while a decline in tropical NPP due to high autotrophic respiration rates alleviates N and P limitations. The quantification of P limitation remains challenging. The poorly constrained processes of soil P sorption and biochemical mineralization are identified as the main uncertainties in the strength of P limitation. Even so, our findings indicate that global land C uptake in the 21st century is likely overestimated in models that neglect P and N limitations. In the long term, insufficient P availability might become an important constraint on C cycling at high latitudes. Accordingly, we argue that the P cycle must be included in global models used for C cycle projections.

기후변화에 따른 우리나라 특산식물의 잠재적 분포적지 변화 예측 - 모데미풀을 중심으로 -

The importance of the genetic value of native plants has been raised recently after the adoption of Nagoya Protocol. In this stream, this research focused on the future distribution of Megaleranthis saniculifolia which has been evolved and adapted to Korean natural environment and classified as an endemic endangered species by IUCN. The distribution of the species in future are projected based on 'present potential distribution area' by adopting SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A1B climate change scenario using 6 types of GCM (General Circulation Model). The major results of the research are as follows : habitats of Megaleranthis saniculifolia. (1) will be reduced by 44% nation wide; (2) in Chungcheongngnam Do and Jeollanam Do will be the most affected; and (3) in high altitude in Chungcheongbuk Do, Gyunggi Do and Gangwon Do will be relatively less affected.

On the use of regional climate models: Implications of climate change for viticulture in Serbia

Climate projections obtained from the coupled regional climate model EBU–POM (Eta Belgrade University – Princeton Ocean Model) driven by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), showed that the vineyard regions of Serbia tend to become warmer and dryer toward the end of 21st century. To evaluate how Serbian viticulture could be affected by a projected climate regime, several climatic variables and agro-climatic indices describing the suitability of a particular area for grapevine production were calculated, after a statistical bias correction was applied to the daily temperature and precipitation data from EBU–POM outputs. Comparison between climatic variables and agro-climatic indices for the reference period 1961–1990 and predicted values for the 2001–2030 period (under the SRES A1B scenario) and the 2071–2100 period (under the SRES A2 scenario) was made for 18 climatological stations placed mostly within, but also outside traditional viticultural regions. According to the obtained change trends it is likely that no significant disturbances in Serbian viticulture will occur over the next few decades, but considerable changes are expected by the end of the 21st century. Warmer and prolonged growing season with greater heat accumulation and longer frost-free period with decline in frost frequency would likely affect the yield and ripening potential of grapes and induce shifts in varietal suitability and wine styles. Projected changes may bring on the need for additional vineyard irrigation, but also open up the possibility that marginal and elevated areas, previously too cool for cultivation of grapevines, become climatically suited for viticulture.