Future Changes of Drought and Flood Events in China under a Global Warming Scenario

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of global warming on drought/flood patterns in China at the end of the 21st century based on the simulations of 22 global climate models and a regional climate model (RegCM3) under the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1B scenario. The standardized precipitation index (SPI), which has well performance in monitoring the drought/ flood characteristics (in terms of their intensity, duration, and spatial extent) in China, is used in this study. The projected results of 22 coupled models and the RegCM3 simulation are consistent. These models project a decrease in the frequency of droughts in most parts of northern China and a slight increase in the frequency in some parts of southern China. Considering China as a whole, the spatial extents of droughts are projected to be significantly reduced. In contrast, future flood events over most parts of China are projected to occur more frequently with stronger intensity and longer duration than those prevalent currently. Additionally, the spatial extents of flood events are projected to significantly increase.