On the use of regional climate models: Implications of climate change for viticulture in Serbia

Abstract

Climate projections obtained from the coupled regional climate model EBU–POM (Eta Belgrade University – Princeton Ocean Model) driven by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), showed that the vineyard regions of Serbia tend to become warmer and dryer toward the end of 21st century. To evaluate how Serbian viticulture could be affected by a projected climate regime, several climatic variables and agro-climatic indices describing the suitability of a particular area for grapevine production were calculated, after a statistical bias correction was applied to the daily temperature and precipitation data from EBU–POM outputs. Comparison between climatic variables and agro-climatic indices for the reference period 1961–1990 and predicted values for the 2001–2030 period (under the SRES A1B scenario) and the 2071–2100 period (under the SRES A2 scenario) was made for 18 climatological stations placed mostly within, but also outside traditional viticultural regions. According to the obtained change trends it is likely that no significant disturbances in Serbian viticulture will occur over the next few decades, but considerable changes are expected by the end of the 21st century. Warmer and prolonged growing season with greater heat accumulation and longer frost-free period with decline in frost frequency would likely affect the yield and ripening potential of grapes and induce shifts in varietal suitability and wine styles. Projected changes may bring on the need for additional vineyard irrigation, but also open up the possibility that marginal and elevated areas, previously too cool for cultivation of grapevines, become climatically suited for viticulture.