Solar Cycle Effects Research Articles

Effects of Saturn's magnetospheric dynamics on Titan's ionosphere

AbstractWe use the Cassini Radio and Plasma Wave Science/Langmuir probe measurements of the electron density from the first 110 flybys of Titan to study how Saturn's magnetosphere influences Titan's ionosphere. The data is first corrected for biased sampling due to varying solar zenith angle and solar energy flux (solar cycle effects). We then present results showing that the electron density in Titan's ionosphere, in the altitude range 1600–2400 km, is increased by about a factor of 2.5 when Titan is located on the nightside of Saturn (Saturn local time (SLT) 21–03 h) compared to when on the dayside (SLT 09‐15 h). For lower altitudes (1100–1600 km) the main dividing factor for the ionospheric density is the ambient magnetospheric conditions. When Titan is located in the magnetospheric current sheet, the electron density in Titan's ionosphere is about a factor of 1.4 higher compared to when Titan is located in the magnetospheric lobes. The factor of 1.4 increase in between sheet and lobe flybys is interpreted as an effect of increased particle impact ionization from ∼200 eV sheet electrons. The factor of 2.5 increase in electron density between flybys on Saturn's nightside and dayside is suggested to be an effect of the pressure balance between thermal plus magnetic pressure in Titan's ionosphere against the dynamic pressure and energetic particle pressure in Saturn's magnetosphere.

Nighttime atomic oxygen in the mesopause region retrieved from SCIAMACHY O(1S) green line measurements and its response to solar cycle variation

AbstractThis paper presents new data sets relating to the abundance of atomic oxygen in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere, which were derived from the nighttime green line emission measurements of the SCIAMACHY (Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric CHartographY) instrument on the European Environmental Satellite (Envisat). These are compared to recently published data sets from the same SCIAMACHY green line measurements through the application of a different photochemical model and to data collected by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry instrument. We find that the retrieved atomic oxygen concentration depends on the choice of the underlying photochemical model. These dependencies explain a large proportion of the differences between recently published data sets. The impact of the 11 year solar cycle on volume emission rates and atomic oxygen abundances was analyzed for various data sets, with the finding that the solar cycle effect varies with the atomic oxygen data set used. The solar cycle impact on the SCIAMACHY data increases with altitude. Above 96 km, it is significantly larger than predicted by Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere. Investigations indicate that these variations are primarily driven by total density compression/expansion variations during the solar cycle, rather than different photolysis rates.

Statistical analysis of the ionospheric response during geomagnetic storm conditions over South Africa using ionosonde and GPS data

AbstractThis paper presents a statistical analysis of ionospheric response over ionosonde stations Grahamstown (33.3°S, 26.5°E, geographic) and Madimbo (22.4°S, 30.9°E, geographic), South Africa, during geomagnetic storm conditions which occurred during the period 1996–2011. Such a climatological study is important in establishing local ionospheric behavior trend which later forms a basis for accurate modeling and forecasting electron density and critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) useful for high‐frequency communication. The analysis was done using foF2 and total electron content (TEC), and to identify the geomagnetically disturbed conditions, the Dst index with a storm criterion of Dst ≤−50 nT was used. Results show a strong solar cycle dependence with negative ionospheric storm effects following the solar cycle and positive ionospheric storm effects occurring most frequently during solar minimum. Seasonally, negative and positive ionospheric storm effects occurred most in summer (63.24%) and in winter (53.62%), respectively. An important finding is that only negative ionospheric storms were observed during great geomagnetic storm activity (Dst ≤−350 nT). For periods when both foF2 and TEC data (from colocated ionosonde and GPS receiver stations) were available, a similar response in terms of variational trend was observed. Hence, GPS data can be used to effectively identify the ionospheric response in the absence of ionosonde data.

Causality of global warming seen from observations: a scale analysis of driving force of the surface air temperature time series in the Northern Hemisphere

By using the slow feature analysis, we reconstructed the driving force for an observed monthly surface air temperature anomaly time series in the northern hemisphere. Wavelet transformation technique was then used to analyze the scale structure of the derived driving force and its causal relationship with global warming. Results showed that the driving force for the analyzed temperature climate system included two independent degrees of freedom which respectively represented the effects of 22-year solar cycle and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the climate. More importantly, the driving force is modulated in amplitude by signals with much longer time periods. The modulation controls the energy input to the climate system and its effect on the global warming is decisive. In addition, through analyzing phase transitions from zero to extremes of the modulating signals, we provide a projection for the future trend of the surface air temperature. In specific, in the next 45–65 years, the driving force will continue to rise which will drive the air temperature even warmer. This is a long term natural trend determined by the modulating amplitude signals, but not directly related to human activity.

Explaining solar cycle effects on composition as it relates to the winter anomaly

AbstractThe solar cycle variation of F2 region winter anomaly is related to solar cycle changes in the latitudinal winter‐to‐summer difference of O/N2. Here we use the National Center for Atmospheric Research–Global Mean Model to develop a concept of why the latitudinal winter‐to‐summer difference of O/N2 varies with solar cycle. The main driver for these seasonal changes in composition is vertical advection, which is expressed most simply in pressure coordinates. Meridional winds do not change over the solar cycle, so the vertical winds should also not change. The other component of vertical advection is the vertical gradient of composition. Is there any reason that this should change? At solar maximum vertical temperature gradients between 100 and 200 km altitude are strong, whereas they are weak at solar minimum. To maintain the same pressure, the weak vertical temperature gradients at solar minimum must be balanced by weak density gradients and the strong temperature gradients at solar maximum must be balanced by strong density gradients to obtain the same pressure profile. Changes in the vertical density gradients are species dependent: heavy species change more and light species change less than the average density change. Hence, vertical winds act on stronger O/N2 gradients at solar maximum than they do at solar minimum, and a stronger winter‐to‐summer difference of O/N2 occurs at solar maximum compared with solar minimum.

Simulated solar cycle effects on the middle atmosphere: WACCM3 Versus WACCM4

AbstractThe Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 4 (WACCM4) is used to quantify solar cycle impacts, including both irradiance and particle precipitation, on the middle atmosphere. Results are compared to previous work using WACCM version 3 (WACCM3) to estimate the sensitivity of simulated solar cycle effects to model modifications. The residual circulation in WACCM4 is stronger than in WACCM3, leading to larger solar cycle effects from energetic particle precipitation; this impacts polar stratospheric odd nitrogen and ozone, as well as polar mesospheric temperatures. The cold pole problem, which is present in both versions, is exacerbated in WACCM4, leading to more ozone loss in the Antarctic stratosphere. Relative to WACCM3, a westerly shift in the WACCM4 zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere and mesosphere, and a strengthening and poleward shift of the Antarctic polar night jet, are attributed to inclusion of the QBO and changes in the gravity wave parameterization in WACCM4. Solar cycle effects in WACCM3 and WACCM4 are qualitatively similar. However, the EPP‐induced increase from solar minimum to solar maximum in polar stratospheric NOy is about twice as large in WACCM4 as in WACCM3; correspondingly, maximum increases in polar O3 loss from solar min to solar max are more than twice as large in WACCM4. This does not cause large differences in the WACCM3 versus WACCM4 solar cycle responses in temperature and wind. Overall, these results provide a framework for future studies using WACCM to analyze the impacts of the solar cycle on the middle atmosphere.

Do solar cycles influence giant cell arteritis and rheumatoid arthritis incidence?

ObjectiveTo examine the influence of solar cycle and geomagnetic effects on the incidence of giant cell arteritis (GCA) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA).MethodsWe used data from patients with GCA (1950–2004) and...

Implications of odd oxygen observations by the TIMED/SABER instrument for lower D region ionospheric modeling

We document the variability in atomic oxygen inferred by the Sounding of the Atmosphere with Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the NASA/TIMED satellite in the lower mesosphere (50–80km altitude) according to its diurnal, latitudinal, seasonal and solar cycle components. The dominant variation is diurnal and latitudinal. Below 75km, seasonal and solar cycle effects are less than 5%. Accordingly, we have developed a simple climatology that depends upon local time and latitude and applied it to a model of the D region of the ionosphere. Between 60 and 70km, atomic oxygen is important in governing the ratio of negative ions to electrons. Using the SABER O climatology along with a previously published climatology of nitric oxide based upon UARS/HALOE data, we compare our model results both to previous calculations and to a profile of electron density [e−] acquired by a rocket launched from Kwajalein Atoll. The model results are shown to be consistent with previously published calculations, but the comparison with the data reveals a dramatic discrepancy whereby the calculated [e−] is over an order of magnitude less than the observations below 65km. The most plausible explanation involves changing the partition of negative charge between molecules such as O2 which rapidly dissociate in sunlight versus heavier, more stable negative ions. Although observations of [e−] below 70km are difficult and infrequent, more research should be invested to evaluate the pervasiveness and the seasonal, latitudinal and diurnal morphology of this model [e−] deficit. This may have practical implications as empirical models of the ionosphere predict a secondary maximum in HF radio absorption in the 70km altitude region.

Meteor heights during the recent solar minimum

Abstract. Average meteor heights have been continuously observed using a SKiYMET VHF radar at Collm (51.3° N, 13.0° E) since late summer of 2004. Initially, the daily mean meteor height was about 89.4 km. Since that time, average meteor heights have decreased. This is consistent with earlier results on middle atmosphere temperature change from the literature and from earlier results of low-frequency reflection height changes measured at Kühlungsborn and Collm. During the recent solar minimum 2008/2009 the meteor heights further decreased. Linear fitting of a trend and a solar cycle to the heights reveals a linear decrease of about −56 m year−1 and a solar cycle effect of +450 m per 100 sfu. Assuming that meteor heights, on a long-term average, approximately refer to a level of constant pressure, this decrease can be converted to a mean middle atmosphere linear temperature decrease of −0.23 K year−1 and a solar cycle effect of +1.8 K per 100 sfu during the last decade, which is in the range of observed trends reported in the literature.

TURBULENCE TRANSPORT MODELING OF THE TEMPORAL OUTER HELIOSPHERE

The solar wind can be regarded as a turbulent magnetofluid, evolving in an expanding solar wind and subject to turbulent driving by a variety of in situ sources. Furthermore, the solar wind and the drivers of turbulence are highly time-dependent and change with solar cycle. Turbulence transport models describing low-frequency magnetic and velocity fluctuations in the solar wind have so far neglected solar cycle effects. Here we consider the effects of solar cycle variability on a turbulence transport model developed by Zank et al. This model is appropriate for the solar wind beyond about 1 AU, and extensions have described the steady-state dependence of the magnetic energy density fluctuations, correlation length, and solar wind temperature throughout the outer heliosphere. We find that the temporal solar wind introduces a periodic variability, particularly beyond ~10 AU, in the magnetic energy density fluctuations, correlation length, and solar wind temperature. The variability is insufficient to account for the full observed variability in these quantities, but we find that the time-dependent solutions trace the steady-state solutions quite well, suggesting that the steady-state models are reasonable first approximations.

Estimate of the effect of the 11-year solar activity cycle on the ozone content in the stratosphere

Using spectral, cross-spectral, and regression methods, we analyzed the effect of the 11-year cycle of solar activity on the ozone content in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere via satellite measurement data obtained with the help of SBUV/SBUV2 instruments in 1978–2003. We revealed a high coherence between the ozone content and solar activity level on the solar cycle scale. In much of this area, the ozone content varies approximately in phase with the solar cycle; however, in areas of significant gradients of ozone mixing ratio in the middle stratosphere, the phase shift between ozone and solar oscillations can be considerable, up to π/2. This can be caused by dynamical processes. The altitude maxima of ozone sensitivity to the 11-year solar cycle were found in the upper vicinity of the stratopause (50–55 km), in the middle stratosphere (35–40 km), and the lower stratosphere (below 25 km). Maximal changes in ozone content in the solar cycle (up to 10% and more) were found in winter and spring in polar regions.

Estimate of the effects of Pinatubo eruption in stratospheric O3 and NO2 contents taking into account the variations in the solar activity

The SBUV and SBUV-2 satellite observations and ground-based measurements of the total NO2 at the NDACC network are used to estimate the effects of the eruption of the Pinatubo volcano and variations in the level of solar activity on the stratospheric O3 and NO2. The NO2 decrease due to the Pinatubo eruption had been from 19 to 34% at different stations, with the NO2 content, on the whole, found to decrease somewhat more strongly in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). On the contrary, the O3 concentration decreased much more strongly in the lower stratosphere at HN extratropical latitudes (∼10%) than in the SH. The maximal percentage decrease in ozone concentration (by ∼22%) is found around the 10-hPa (32-km) level at 10–15° S. In general traits, the effect of the 11-year solar cycle on the stratospheric ozone is symmetrical about the equator. The altitudinal maxima of the O3 response to the solar cycle are identified at heights of 50–55, 35–40, and below 25 km. Changes in O3 concentration in these layers are usually within a few percent. Substantial interhemispheric differences are found in the NO2 response to the 11-year solar cycle. At most of the SH stations, the NO2 content in the phase of maximum of solar activity is usually smaller than in the phase of minimum. The NO2 content at NH low and middle latitudes is, more often, larger during the maximum than the minimum of solar activity. The NO2 variations during the solar activity cycle are usually within 5%.

Geomagnetic lunar and solar daily variations during the last 100 years

AbstractThis paper describes long‐term changes in the geomagnetic lunar (L) and solar (S) daily variations. We analyze the eastward component of the geomagnetic field observed at eight midlatitude stations during 1903–2012. The amplitude and phase for the semidiurnal component of the L and S variations are examined. Both L and S amplitudes correlate with the solar activity index F10.7, revealing a prominent 11 year solar cycle. In both cases, the correlation is slightly better with than F10.7. The sensitivity of the L variation to solar activity is comparable with that of the S variation. The solar cycle effect is also found in the phase of the S variation but not apparent in the phase of the L variation. The ratio in the amplitude of the L to S variation shows a long‐term decrease (approximately 10% per century), which may be due to a reduction in lunar tidal waves from the lower atmosphere to the upper atmosphere in association with climate change.

Solar cycle effects on Indian summer monsoon dynamics

Solar activity associated with sunspot number influences the atmospheric circulation on various time scales. As Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is the manifestation between warmer Asian continent and the cooler Indian Ocean, changes in the solar cycle are expected to influence the ISM characteristics. Among several elements of ISM, Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ), Low Level Jet (LLJ), and rainfall are important features. As a part of CAWSES India Phase II theme 1 (solar influence on climate (0–100km)) programme, we made an attempt to investigate the role of solar cycle variability on these ISM features using long-term data available from NECP/NCAR (1948–2010) and ERA-Interim (1979–2010) re-analysis products. To check the suitability of these data sets, ground based observations available over the Indian region are also considered. ISM characteristics are studied separately for the maximum and minimum as well as increasing and decreasing solar cycle conditions. Amplitudes corresponding to the solar cycle observed in TEJ, LLJ and rainfall are extracted using advanced statistical tool known as intrinsic mode function. Long-term trends in TEJ reveal decreasing trend at the rate of 0.13m/s/yr (between 1948 and 2000) and no perceptible trend in LLJ. There exists inverse relation between TEJ strength and Central India rainfall. Large difference of 2m/s (5m/s) in the zonal winds of TEJ between solar maximum and minimum (increasing and decreasing trend) is noticed. There exists a difference of ~2m/s in LLJ winds between solar maximum and minimum and increasing and decreasing trend of the solar cycle. However, no consistent relation between the ISM rainfall and solar cycle is noticed over Indian region unlike reported earlier but there exists a delayed effect around 13 years. We attribute the observed features as linear and non-linear relation between dynamics of ISM, rainfall and solar cycle, respectively.

Response of the mesopause temperatures to solar activity over Yakutia in 1999–2013

OH(6-2) rotational temperature trends and solar cycle effects are studied. Observations were carried out at the Maimaga station (63.04°N,129.51°E) for the period August 1999 to March 2013. Measurements were conducted with an infrared spectrograph. Temperatures were determined from intensity ratios in the P branch of the OH band. The monthly average residuals of temperature after the subtraction of the mean seasonal variation were used for a search for the solar component of temperature response. The dependence of temperatures on solar activity has been investigated using the Ottawa 10.7cm flux as a proxy. A linear regression fitting on residual temperatures yields a solar cycle coefficient of 4.24±1.39K/100solar flux units (SFU). The cross-correlation analyses showed that changes of the residual temperature follow changes of solar activity with a quasi-two year delay (25months). The temperature response at the delay of 25months reaches 7K/100SFU. The possible reason of the observed delay can be an influence of quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO) of the atmosphere on the relation of temperature and solar activity. The value of the temperature trend after the subtraction of seasonal and solar components is not statistically significant.

Field‐aligned currents during the extreme solar minimum between the solar cycles 23 and 24

AbstractThe solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 was unusually long and deep. The upward region‐1 (R1) field‐aligned current (FAC) response to this extreme solar minimum was investigated using Defense Meteorological Satellite Program observations. The solar cycle responses on the dayside are different than those on the nightside. The field‐aligned current density (J//) on the dayside, at 12–17 magnetic local time (MLT), peaks in the declining phase of the solar cycle, in 2003, when the solar wind speed also peaks, whereas J// on the nightside, at 18–23 MLT, appears insensitive to the solar cycle. In 1995–2010, J// at 15–17 MLT reaches the lowest value during the extreme solar minimum in 2009, when the solar wind speed also reaches the lowest value. At 12–17 MLT, R1 is located mostly on open field lines or at the boundary layer, where the current is driven mostly by the velocity shear at the magnetopause boundary. However, on the nightside, R1 is located mostly on the closed field lines where J// is not driven directly and immediately by the solar wind. The nightside current width (Λ) exhibits a solar cycle effect such that Λ is smaller at the solar minimum and smallest in 2009. However, the dayside Λ exhibits little solar cycle effect. As a result, the FAC intensity (latitudinally integrated J//) exhibits a solar cycle variation at all local times and the FAC intensity is lower during the extreme solar minimum than that of the previous solar minimum.

Relativistic electron acceleration during high-intensity, long-duration, continuousAEactivity (HILDCAA) events: Solar cycle phase dependences

High-intensity, long-duration, continuous AE activity (HILDCAA) intervals during solar cycle 23 (1995–2008) have been studied by a superposed epoch analysis. It was found that HILDCAA intervals order the solar wind velocity, temperature and density (characteristic of high-speed solar wind intervals), the polar cap potential, and various other geomagnetic indices well. The interplanetary magnetic field Bz is generally negative, and the Newell solar wind coupling function is high during HILDCAA events. The HILDCAA intervals are well correlated with an enhancement of magnetospheric relativistic (E > 2 MeV) electron fluxes observed at geosynchronous orbit with a delay of ~1.5 days from the onset of the HILDCAAs. The response of the energetic electrons to HILDCAAs is found to vary with solar cycle phase. The initial electron fluxes are lower for events occurring during the ascending and solar maximum (AMAX) phases than for events occurring during the descending and solar minimum (DMIN) phases. The flux increases for the DMIN phase events are >50% larger than for the AMAX phase events. Although the solar wind speeds during the DMIN phases were slightly higher and lasted longer than during the AMAX phases, no other significant solar wind differences were noted. It is concluded that electrons are accelerated to relativistic energies most often and most efficiently during the DMIN phases of the solar cycle. We propose two possible solar UV mechanisms to explain this solar cycle effect.

VOYAGER 1 NEAR THE HELIOPAUSE

Recent observations from the Voyager 1 spacecraft show that it is sampling the local interstellar medium (LISM). This is quite surprising because no realistic, steady-state model of the solar wind (SW) interaction with the LISM gives an inner heliosheath width as narrow as ~30 AU. This includes models that assume a strong redistribution of the ion energy to the tails in the pickup ion distribution function. We show that the heliopause (HP), which separates the SW from the LISM, is not a smooth tangential discontinuity, but rather a surface subject to Rayleigh-Taylor-type instabilities which can result in LISM material penetration deep inside the SW. We also show that the HP flanks are always subject to a Kelvin-Helmholtz instability. The instabilities are considerably suppressed near the HP nose by the heliospheric magnetic field in steady-state models, but reveal themselves in the presence of solar cycle effects. We argue that Voyager 1 may be in one such instability region and is therefore observing plasma densities much higher than those in the pristine SW. These results may explain the early penetration of Voyager 1 into the LISM. They also show that there is a possibility that the spacecraft may start sampling the SW again before it finally leaves the heliosphere.

Skin cancer, irradiation, and sunspots: the solar cycle effect.

Skin cancer is diagnosed in more than 2 million individuals annually in the United States. It is strongly associated with ultraviolet exposure, with melanoma risk doubling after five or more sunburns. Solar activity, characterized by features such as irradiance and sunspots, undergoes an 11-year solar cycle. This fingerprint frequency accounts for relatively small variation on Earth when compared to other uncorrelated time scales such as daily and seasonal cycles. Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filters, applied to the solar cycle and skin cancer data, separate the components of different time scales to detect weaker long term signals and investigate the relationships between long term trends. Analyses of crosscorrelations reveal epidemiologically consistent latencies between variables which can then be used for regression analysis to calculate a coefficient of influence. This method reveals that strong numerical associations, with correlations >0.5, exist between these small but distinct long term trends in the solar cycle and skin cancer. This improves modeling skin cancer trends on long time scales despite the stronger variation in other time scales and the destructive presence of noise.

Effects of solar cycle 24 activity on WAAS navigation

This paper reviews the effects of geomagnetic activity of solar cycle 24 from 2011 through mid‐2013 on the Federal Aviation Administration's Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) navigation service in the U.S., to identify (a) major impacts and their severity compared with the previous cycle and (b) effects in new service regions of North America added since last solar cycle. We examine two cases: a storm that reduced service coverage for several hours and ionospheric scintillation that led to anomalous receiver tracking. Using the 24–25 October 2011 storm as an example, we examine WAAS operational system coverage for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). The WAAS algorithm upgrade to ionospheric estimation, in effect since late 2011, is able to mitigate the daytime coverage loss but not the nighttime loss. We correlate WAAS availability to maps of the storm plasma generated with the data assimilative model Ionospheric Data Assimilation 4‐D, which show a local nighttime corotating persistent plume of plasma extending from Florida across central CONUS. We study the effect of scintillation on 9 October 2012 on the WAAS reference station at Fairbanks, Alaska. Data from a nearby scintillation monitor in Gakona and all‐sky imaging of aurora at Poker Flat corroborate the event. Anomalous receiver processing triggered by scintillation reduces accuracy at Fairbanks for a few minutes. Users experiencing similar effects would have their confidence bounds inflated, possibly trading off service continuity for safety. The activity to date in solar cycle 24 has had minor effects on WAAS service coverage, mainly occurring in Alaska and Canada.