Abstract
By using the slow feature analysis, we reconstructed the driving force for an observed monthly surface air temperature anomaly time series in the northern hemisphere. Wavelet transformation technique was then used to analyze the scale structure of the derived driving force and its causal relationship with global warming. Results showed that the driving force for the analyzed temperature climate system included two independent degrees of freedom which respectively represented the effects of 22-year solar cycle and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the climate. More importantly, the driving force is modulated in amplitude by signals with much longer time periods. The modulation controls the energy input to the climate system and its effect on the global warming is decisive. In addition, through analyzing phase transitions from zero to extremes of the modulating signals, we provide a projection for the future trend of the surface air temperature. In specific, in the next 45–65 years, the driving force will continue to rise which will drive the air temperature even warmer. This is a long term natural trend determined by the modulating amplitude signals, but not directly related to human activity.
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