Solar Cycle Effects Research Articles

Solar cycle effects on the ion escape from Mars

Solar cycle effects on the escape of planetary ions from Mars are investigated using Mars Express Analyzer of Space Plasmas and Energetic Atoms 3 data from June 2007 to January 2013. Average and median tail fluxes of low‐energy (<300 eV) heavy ions (O+, O2+), derived from the full data set covering 7900 orbits, are highly correlated with the solar activity proxies F10.7 and the sunspot number, Ri. The average heavy ion escape rate increased by a factor of ≈ 10, from ≈ 1 · 1024 s−1 (solar minimum) to ≈ 1 · 1025 s−1 (solar maximum). Combining data from this, and other studies, an empiric model/expression is derived for the Martian escape rate versus solar activity F10.7 and Ri. The model is a useful tool to derive the accumulated ion escape rate from Mars based on historical records of solar activity, with potentials back to the young Sun époque.

Effects of the diurnal cycle in solar radiation on the tropical Indian Ocean mixed layer variability during wintertime Madden-Julian Oscillations

[1] The effects of solar radiation diurnal cycle on intraseasonal mixed layer variability in the tropical Indian Ocean during boreal wintertime Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events are examined using the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model. Two parallel experiments, the main run and the experimental run, are performed for the period of 2005–2011 with daily atmospheric forcing except that an idealized hourly shortwave radiation diurnal cycle is included in the main run. The results show that the diurnal cycle of solar radiation generally warms the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) north of 10 � S, particularly during the calm phase of the MJO when sea surface wind is weak, mixed layer is thin, and the SST diurnal cycle amplitude (dSST) is large. The diurnal cycle enhances the MJO-forced intraseasonal SST variability by about 20% in key regions like the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR; 55 � –70 � E, 12 � –4 � S) and the central equatorial Indian Ocean (CEIO; 65 � –95 � E, 3 � S–3 � N) primarily through nonlinear rectification. The model also well reproduced the upper-ocean variations monitored by the CINDY/DYNAMO field campaign between September-November 2011. During this period, dSST reaches 0.7 � C in the CEIO region, and intraseasonal SST variability is significantly amplified. In the SCTR region where mean easterly winds are strong during this period, diurnal SST variation and its impact on intraseasonal ocean variability are much weaker. In both regions, the diurnal cycle also has a large impact on the upward surface turbulent heat flux QT and induces diurnal variation of QT with a peak-to-peak difference of O(10 W m � 2 ).

Space climate implications from substorm frequency

AbstractThe solar wind impacting the Earth varies over a wide range of time scales, driving a corresponding range of geomagnetic activity. Past work has strongly indicated that the rate of merging on the frontside magnetosphere is the most important predictor for magnetospheric activity, especially over a few hours. However, the magnetosphere exhibits variations on other time scales, including UT, seasonal, and solar cycle variations. Much of this geomagnetic variation cannot be reasonably attributed to changes in the solar wind driving—that is, it is not created by the original Russell‐McPherron effect or any generalization thereof. In this paper we examine the solar cycle, seasonal, and diurnal effects based upon the frequency of substorm onsets, using a data set of 53,000 substorm onsets. These were identified through the SuperMAG collaboration and span three decades with continuous coverage. Solar cycle variations include a profound minimum in 2009 (448 substorms) and peak in 2003 (3727). The magnitude of this variation (a factor of 8.3) is not explained through variations in estimators of the frontside merging rate (such as dΦMP/dt), even when the more detailed probability distribution functions are examined. Instead, v, or better, n1/2v2 seems to be implicated in the dramatic difference between active and quiet years, even beyond the role of velocity in modulating merging. Moreover, we find that although most substorms are preceded by flux loading (78.5% are above the mean and 83.8% above median solar wind driving), a high solar wind v is almost as important (68.3% above mean, 74.8% above median). This and other evidence suggest that either v or n1/2v2 (but probably not p) plays a strong secondary role in substorm onset. As for the seasonal and diurnal effects, the elliptical nature of the Earth's orbit, which is closest to the Sun in January, leads to a larger solar wind driving (measured by Bs, vBs, or dΦMP/dt) in November, as is confirmed by 22 years of solar wind observations. However, substorms peak in October and March and have a UT dependence best explained by whether a conducting path established by solar illumination exists in at least one hemisphere in the region where substorm onsets typically occur.

Solar cycle effects on parallel electric field acceleration of auroral electron beams

AbstractWe present the occurrence frequency of downgoing auroral electron beams in magnetic local time and invariant latitude, and the dependence on solar cycle, as indicated by F10.7, on whether the ionospheric foot point of the satellite is illuminated or dark, and on the energy flux carried by the electrons. As previously reported, we find that the occurrence of electron beams peaks in the premidnight local time sector and that solar illumination at the foot point (solar zenith angle) reduces both the occurrence and energy of the electron beams. The effect of solar maximum conditions (indicated by F10.7) is almost as large as the effect of the solar zenith angle. The characteristic energy of the electron beams is dependent on the energy flux carried, in addition to both solar zenith angle and F10.7. The beam energy (and therefore the parallel potential drop) is ~1.6 times higher for during solar minimum than during solar maximum for both dark and illuminated foot points. The beam energy during dark solar minimum conditions is a factor of ~3 more than during sunlit minimum conditions. The “area” covered by intense aurora is also reduced during solar maximum, for both sunlit and dark conditions. There is no evidence that the statistical results are due to the fact that acceleration via parallel electric fields moves to lower latitudes during solar maximum.

Day‐to‐day variability of foEs in the equatorial ionosphere

AbstractDiurnal, seasonal, and solar cycle effects of the variability (VR) of the critical frequency of sporadic E layer (foEsq) are investigated at Ibadan (7.4°N, 3.9°E, 6°S dip) in the African sector during high solar activity (HSA) year of 1958 (Rz = 181), moderate solar activity (MSA) year of 1973 (Rz = 30), and low solar activity (LSA) year of 1965 (Rz = 17). The diurnal variation of foEsq VR is characterized by post‐midnight (32%–78%) and pre‐midnight (20%–84%) peaks during high solar activity (HSA), the only epoch of the three showing these peaks and a diurnal trend. While the daytime foEsq VRs of the three epochs show no seasonal trend, pre‐midnight and post‐midnight, the foEsq VRs during HSA and LSA show seasonal trends. Similarity is observed in the curve of reciprocal of percentage occurrence of Esq and that of foEsq VR, indicating inverse variation of percentage occurrence and foEsq VR. Longitudinal influence is observed in the diurnal variation of HSA and MSA July foEsq VR of Ibadan (7.4°N, 3.9°E, 6°S dip) in the African sector, which is in the neighborhood of the Greenwich Meridian (GM); Singapore (1.3°N, 108.3°E, 17.6°S dip) in the Asian sector, east of GM; and Huancayo (12°S, 284.7°E, 1.90 dip) in the American sector, west of GM.

Solar cycle effect on temporal and spatial variation of topside ion density measured by SROSS C2 and ROCSAT 1 over the Indian longitude sector

We investigated the diurnal, seasonal and latitudinal variations of ion density Ni over the Indian low and equatorial topside ionosphere within 17.5°S to 17.5°N magnetic latitudes by combining the data from SROSS C2 and ROCSAT 1 for the 9year period from 1995 to 2003 during solar cycle 23. The diurnal maximum density is found in the local noon or in the afternoon hours and the minimum occurs in the pre sunrise hours. The density is higher during the equinoxes as compared to that in the June and December solstice. The local time spread of the daytime maximum ion density increases with increase in solar activity. A north south asymmetry with higher ion density over northern hemisphere in the June solstice and over southern hemisphere in December solstice has been observed in moderate and high solar activity years. The crest to crest distance increases with increase in solar flux. Ion density bears a nonlinear relationship with F10.7 cm solar flux and EUV flux in general. The density increases linearly with solar flux up to ∼150sfu (1sfu=10−22Wm−2Hz−1) and EUV flux up to ∼50units (109photonscm−2s−1). But beyond this the density saturates. Inverse saturation and linear relationship have been observed in some season or latitude also. Inter-comparison of the three solar activity indices F10.7 cm flux, EUV flux and F10.7P (=(F10.7+F10.7A)/2, where F10.7A is the 81day running average value of F10.7) shows that the ion density correlates better with F10.7P and F10.7 cm fluxes. The annual average daytime total ion density from 1995 to 2003 follows a hysteresis loop as the solar cycle reverses. The ion density at 500km over the Indian longitude sector as obtained by the international reference ionosphere is in general lower than the measured densities during moderate and high solar activity years. In low solar activity years the model densities are equal or higher than measured densities. The IRI EIA peaks are symmetric (±10°) in equinox while densities are higher at 10°N in June solstice and at 10°S in the December solstice. The model density follows F10.7 linearly up to about F10.7>∼150sfu and then saturates.

THREE-DIMENSIONAL FEATURES OF THE OUTER HELIOSPHERE DUE TO COUPLING BETWEEN THE INTERSTELLAR AND INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. IV. SOLAR CYCLE MODEL BASED ONULYSSESOBSERVATIONS

The solar cycle has a profound influence on the solar wind (SW) interaction with the local interstellar medium (LISM) on more than one timescales. Also, there are substantial differences in individual solar cycle lengths and SW behavior within them. The presence of a slow SW belt, with a variable latitudinal extent changing within each solar cycle from rather small angles to 90 Degree-Sign , separated from the fast wind that originates at coronal holes substantially affects plasma in the inner heliosheath (IHS)-the SW region between the termination shock (TS) and the heliopause (HP). The solar cycle may be the reason why the complicated flow structure is observed in the IHS by Voyager 1. In this paper, we show that a substantial decrease in the SW ram pressure observed by Ulysses between the TS crossings by Voyager 1 and 2 contributes significantly to the difference in the heliocentric distances at which these crossings occurred. The Ulysses spacecraft is the source of valuable information about the three-dimensional and time-dependent properties of the SW. Its unique fast latitudinal scans of the SW regions make it possible to create a solar cycle model based on the spacecraft in situ measurements. On the basis of more » our analysis of the Ulysses data over the entire life of the mission, we generated time-dependent boundary conditions at 10 AU from the Sun and applied our MHD-neutral model to perform a numerical simulation of the SW-LISM interaction. We analyzed the global variations in the interaction pattern, the excursions of the TS and the HP, and the details of the plasma and magnetic field distributions in the IHS. Numerical results are compared with Voyager data as functions of time in the spacecraft frame. We discuss solar cycle effects which may be reasons for the recent decrease in the TS particles (ions accelerated to anomalous cosmic-ray energies) flux observed by Voyager 1. « less

FAST observations of solar illumination and solar cycle dependence of the acceleration of upflowing ion beams on auroral field lines

We present the magnetic local time, invariant latitude, and altitude distribution of upflowing ion beams and the dependence of their occurrence on whether the ionospheric foot point of the satellite is illuminated or dark and on solar cycle, as indicated by F10.7. The effects of illumination and solar cycle are additive, consistent with the fact that the solar EUV depends on solar cycle and that the ionospheric conditions are dependent on total flux illuminating the foot point. Consistent with previous studies, the occurrence of upflowing ion beams peaks in the premidnight local time sector, and the occurrence increases dramatically with altitude over the altitude range of FAST (~700 km to ~4000 km). Solar illumination both reduces the occurrence of ion beams observed by more than a factor of 10 and increases the altitude where the acceleration occurs so that beams are rare below ~4000 km altitude. The effect of the increased solar EUV near solar maximum is almost as large. The inferred potential drops at altitudes below 4000 km, even during dark conditions, are usually less than 1 keV; during sunlit conditions and/or high F10.7, the potentials are usually less than 500 eV. These results place constraints on the altitude of the auroral parallel potential drop and on the relative importance of ionospheric conductivity and plasma density on the acceleration processes. There is no evidence that the statistical results are due to motion of large parallel potential drops to lower latitudes near solar maximum.

HEMISPHERIC ASYMMETRIES IN THE POLAR SOLAR WIND OBSERVED BYULYSSESNEAR THE MINIMA OF SOLAR CYCLES 22 AND 23

We examined solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) observations from Ulysses' first and third orbits to study hemispheric differences in the properties of the solar wind and IMF originating from the Sun's large polar coronal holes (PCHs) during the declining and minimum phase of solar cycles 22 and 23. We identified hemispheric asymmetries in several parameters, most notably ~15%-30% south-to-north differences in averages for the solar wind density, mass flux, dynamic pressure, and energy flux and the radial and total IMF magnitudes. These differences were driven by relatively larger, more variable solar wind density and radial IMF between ~36°S-60°S during the declining phase of solar cycles 22 and 23. These observations indicate either a hemispheric asymmetry in the PCH output during the declining and minimum phase of solar cycles 22 and 23 with the southern hemisphere being more active than its northern counterpart, or a solar cycle effect where the PCH output in both hemispheres is enhanced during periods of higher solar activity. We also report a strong linear correlation between these solar wind and IMF parameters, including the periods of enhanced PCH output, that highlight the connection between the solar wind mass and energy output and the Sun's magnetic field. That these enhancements were not matched by similar sized variations in solar wind speed points to the mass and energy responsible for these increases being added to the solar wind while its flow was subsonic.

On-Orbit Sensitivity Evolution of the EUV Imaging Spectrometer on Hinode

Since its launch on 22 September 2006, the EUV Imaging Spectrometer onboard the Hinode satellite has exhibited a gradual decay in sensitivity. Using spectroheliograms taken in the Fe viii 185.21 Å and Si vii 275.35 Å emission lines in quiet regions near Sun center we characterize that decay. For the period from December 2006 to March 2012, the decline in the sensitivity can be characterized as an exponential decay with an average time constant of 7358±1030 days (20.2±2.8 years). Emission lines formed at temperatures ≳ 106.1 K in the quiet Sun data exhibit solar-cycle effects.

Effect of solar cycle on topside ion temperature measured by SROSS C2 and ROCSAT 1 over the Indian equatorial and low latitudes

Abstract. The effect of solar activity on the diurnal, seasonal and latitudinal variations of ion temperature Ti and its relationship with corresponding ion density Ni over the Indian low and equatorial topside ionosphere within 17.5° S to 22.5° N magnetic latitudes are being investigated, combining the data from SROSS C2 and ROCSAT 1 for the 9-year period from 1995 to 2003 during solar cycle 23. Ti varies between 800 K and 1100 K during nighttime and rises to peak values of ~1800 K in the post sunrise hours. Daytime Ti varies from 1000 K to 1500 K. The time of occurrence, magnitude and duration of the morning enhancement show distinct seasonal bias. For example, in the June solstice, Ti increases to ~1650 K at ~06:00 h and exhibits a daytime plateau till 17:00 LT. In the equinoxes, enhanced ion temperature is observed for a longer duration in the morning. There is also a latitudinal asymmetry in the ion temperature distribution. In the equinoxes, the daytime Ti is higher at off equatorial latitudes and lower over the Equator, while in the solstices, Ti exhibits a north–south gradient during daytime. Nighttime Ti is found to be higher over the Equator. Daytime ion temperature exhibits insignificant positive correlation with F10.7 cm solar flux, while nighttime ion temperature decreases with increase in solar flux. Daytime ion temperature and ion density are negatively correlated during solar minimum, while nighttime Ti does not exhibit any correlation. However, during high solar activity, significant positive correlation of Ti with Ni has been observed over the Equator, while at 10° S and 10° N temperature and density exhibit significant negative correlation. The neutral temperature Tn derived from the MSISE 90 model is found to be higher than measured Ti during nighttime, while daytime Ti is higher than model Tn.

Temporal and spatial variation of equatorial ionization anomaly by using multistation ionosonde data for the 19th solar cycle over the Indian region

The paper deals with the study of temporal and spatial variation of equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) phenomenon along with its dependence on solar activity and season during the 19th solar cycle by using seven Indian ionosonde stations. Present study is an attempt to carry out the comprehensive study of EIA by using the limited number of ground based instruments. This has been achieved by performing the Gaussian fitting over the latitudinal distribution of F2-region critical frequency (foF2) data. Results reveal that the phenomenon of EIA has a strong dependence on solar activity and seasons. The EIA crest exhibits the feature of latitudinal shifting and expansion with increasing solar activity. It is found out that the effect of solar cycle and seasons on EIA is local time dependent. The observations were also compared with the IRI-2001 model predictions and results reveal that the model values are in general agreement with the observed values with some discrepancies, particularly during the high solar activity period and morning sector. The results have been discussed in the light of relative contribution from transequatorial interhemispheric neutral wind and strength of equatorial fountain process during different local time, season and solar activity levels. Furthermore, an attempt is made to parameterize the location and foF2 of the EIA crest by using the regression analysis. These results can be used to predict the latitudinal position and foF2 of the EIA crest for any given 12-month running average sunspot number (R12).

Superposed epoch analyses of thermospheric response to CIRs: Solar cycle and seasonal dependencies

Thermospheric response to Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) has been studied previously; however, its solar cycle and seasonal effects have not been fully investigated. Thermospheric mass density at 400 km measured by the CHAMP satellite during 2001–2008 and ∑ O/N2 from the TIMED/GUVI instrument covering a period from 2002 to 2008 are used to investigate the solar cycle and seasonal dependencies of the thermospheric response to CIRs. Our results reveal: (1) solar minimum CIRs compared to solar maximum counterparts have larger solar wind speeds before and after the stream interface. However, solar wind dynamic pressure and merging electric field are slightly larger at solar maximum than solar minimum. (2) CIR‐induced variations of ∑ O/N2 are characterized by high latitude depression and low latitude enhancement, a distinction from global enhancement of neutral density at a fixed altitude. These relative thermospheric changes are dependent on solar cycle, with a more pronounced increase in neutral density at all latitudes and a stronger decrease in ∑ O/N2 at high latitude at solar minimum than at solar maximum. (3) A seasonal asymmetry is presented in the relative deviations of thermospheric mass density and composition. On the dayside, the peak increases of neutral density at high latitudes on average are ∼40% in the summer hemisphere and ∼26% in the winter hemisphere. Nighttime neutral density changes are more remarkable than that in the same latitudinal bands of daytime and have the same seasonal preference of enhancement as the dayside. At the daytime, ∑ O/N2 at high latitudes suffers more reduction in the summer hemisphere than in the winter hemisphere. At middle latitudes, ∑ O/N2 reduces in the winter hemisphere; nevertheless, it increases slightly in the summer hemisphere.

Field‐aligned distribution of the plasmaspheric electron density: An empirical model derived from the IMAGE RPI measurements

We present a newly developed empirical model of the plasma density in the plasmasphere. It is based on more than 700 density profiles along field lines derived from active sounding measurements made by the radio plasma imager on IMAGE between June 2000 and July 2005. The measurements cover all magnetic local times and vary from L = 1.6 to L = 4 spatially, with every case manually confirmed to be within the plasmasphere by studying the corresponding dynamic spectrogram. The resulting model depends not only on L‐shell but also on magnetic latitude and can be applied to specify the electron densities in the plasmasphere between 2000 km altitude and the plasmapause (the plasmapause location itself is not included in this model). It consists of two parts: the equatorial density, which falls off exponentially as a function of L‐shell; and the field‐aligned dependence on magnetic latitude and L‐shell (in the form of invariant magnetic latitude). The fluctuations of density appear to be greater than what could be explained by a possible dependence on magnetic local time or season, and the dependence on geomagnetic activity is weak and cannot be discerned. The solar cycle effect is not included because the database covers only a fraction of a solar cycle. The performance of the model is evaluated by comparison to four previously developed plasmaspheric models and is further tested against the in situ passive IMAGE RPI measurements of the upper hybrid resonance frequency. While the equatorial densities of different models are mostly within the statistical uncertainties (especially at distances greater than L = 3), the clear latitudinal dependence of the RPI model presents an improvement over previous models. The model shows that the field‐aligned density distribution can be treated neither as constant nor as a simple diffusive equilibrium distribution profile. This electron density model combined with an assumed model of the ion composition can be used to estimate the time for an Alfven wave to propagate from one hemisphere to the other, to determine the plasma frequencies along a field line, and to calculate the raypaths for high frequency waves propagating in the plasmasphere.

Solar Cycle Predictions (Invited Review)

Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions, just as weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on low-Earth orbit spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as the reduced propellant load is consumed more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5 – 20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations of how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future are discussed.

RADIAL VELOCITY ALONG THE VOYAGER 1 TRAJECTORY: THE EFFECT OF SOLAR CYCLE

As Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 are approaching the heliopause (HP)—the boundary between the solar wind (SW) and the local interstellar medium (LISM)—we expect new, unknown features of the heliospheric interface to be revealed. A seeming puzzle reported recently by Krimigis et al. concerns the unusually low, even negative, radial velocity components derived from the energetic ion distribution. Steady-state plasma models of the inner heliosheath (IHS) show that the radial velocity should not be equal to zero even at the surface of the HP. Here we demonstrate that the velocity distributions observed by Voyager 1 are consistent with time-dependent simulations of the SW-LISM interaction. In this Letter, we analyze the results from a numerical model of the large-scale heliosphere that includes solar cycle effects. Our simulations show that prolonged periods of low to negative radial velocity can exist in the IHS at substantial distances from the HP. It is also shown that Voyager 1 was more likely to observe such regions than Voyager 2.

HF radar observations of ionospheric backscatter during geomagnetically quiet periods

Abstract. The quiet-time coherent backscatter from the F-region observed by the Tasman International Geospace Environment Radar (TIGER) Bruny Island HF radar is analysed statistically in order to determine typical trends and controlling factors in the ionospheric echo occurrence. A comparison of the F-region peak density values from the IRI-2007 model and ionosonde measurements in the vicinity of the radar's footprint shows a very good agreement, particularly at subauroral and auroral latitudes, and model densities within the radar's footprint are used in the following analyses. The occurrence of F-region backscatter is shown to exhibit distinct diurnal, seasonal and solar cycle variations and these are compared with model trends in the F-region peak electron density and Pedersen conductance of the underlying ionosphere. The solar cycle effects in occurrence are demonstrated to be strong and more complex than a simple proportionality on a year-to-year basis. The diurnal and seasonal effects are strongly coupled to each other, with diurnal trends exhibiting a systematic gradual variation from month to month that can be explained when both electron density and conductance trends are considered. During the night, the echo occurrence is suggested to be controlled directly by the density conditions, with a direct proportionality observed between the occurrence and peak electron density. During the day, the echo occurrence appears to be controlled by both conductance and propagation conditions. It is shown that the range of echo occurrence values is smaller for larger conductances and that the electron density determines what value the echo occurrence takes in that range. These results suggest that the irregularity production rates are significantly reduced by the highly conducting E layer during the day while F-region density effects dominate during the night.

Recent Progresses on Ionospheric Climatology Investigations

The ionosphere varies over multiple time scales, which are classified into two categories: the climatology and weather variations. In this national report, we give a brief summary of recent progresses in ionospheric climatology with focus on (1) the seasonal variations, (2) solar cycle effects, and (3) empirical modeling of the ionosphere. The seasonal variations of the ionosphere have been explored in many works to give a more detailed picture with regional and global features at various altitudes by analyzing the observation data from various sources and models. Moreover, a series of studies reported the response of the ionosphere to solar cycle variations, which revealed some novel and detailed features of solar activity dependence of ionospheric parameters at different altitudes. These investigations have improved our understanding on the states of the ionosphere and underlying fundamental processes, provided clues to future studies on ionospheric weather, and guided ionospheric modeling, forecasting and related applications.

Evidence of the solar Activity’s effect on El Nino Southern Oscillation

Using a special wavelet function called “two-humped,” a significant effect of the 11-year solar cycle on the dynamics of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) processes as represented by a 137-year series of the Southern oscillation index has been ascertained.

Infrared radiation in the thermosphere at the onset of solar cycle 24

The effects of solar cycle 24 are now clearly evident in the infrared radiative cooling of the thermosphere as observed by the SABER instrument on the NASA TIMED satellite. After reaching a minimum in 2009, infrared radiative cooling of the thermosphere by nitric oxide (NO) and carbon dioxide (CO2) has been steadily increasing. The global infrared power radiated by NO in mid‐April 2011 is about four times the minimum value while the CO2 power is about 15% larger than at the minimum. In addition, the short‐term variability of the NO emission has increased and is strongly correlated with increased geomagnetic variability as inferred from the Ap index. The increasing levels of infrared emission are indicative of a warming thermosphere and possibly increasing levels of atomic oxygen and nitric oxide. However the infrared power presently radiated by NO is only about 40% of the maximum value observed by the SABER instrument in late 2002 while the CO2 power is now about 80% of the maximum observed value. The SABER infrared time series, now approaching 10 years in length, is a unique climate data record for testing the radiative and chemical physics of upper atmosphere general circulation models.