Social Pension Research Articles

ВДОСКОНАЛЕННЯ СОЦІАЛЬНО-ПЕНСІЙНОГО СТРАХУВАННЯ ПРАЦІВНИКІВ ГЕОДЕЗИЧНО-ЗЕМЛЕВПОРЯДНИХ СТРУКТУР

The domestic system of social pension insurance for employees of geodesic and land management enterprises exhibits the following shortcomings: prolonged dependence of the budgets of national social pension funds on the state treasury; legislative norms that allow certain citizens of Ukraine to earn significant incomes without paying the unified social contribution under generally accepted conditions; exemption from the contribution for expenditures on the purchase of expensive cars, luxury goods, expensive alcohol, tobacco products, and paid internet content; a regulatory contradiction that results in, besides the unified social contribution, working citizens also paying such social taxes as personal income tax and military levy. The resolution of most of the aforementioned problems will occur automatically after the Victory over the aggressor and Ukraine’s accession to the EU. At the same time, the research results convincingly demonstrated that practical ways to address these issues include: repealing Article 1, Paragraph 4 of the Law of Ukraine No. 2464-VI dated July 8, 2010, “On the Collection and Accounting of the Unified Contribution for Mandatory State Social Insurance,” which allows certain citizens of Ukraine to receive substantial incomes, even compared to advanced countries, without paying the unified social contribution under generally accepted conditions; introducing a legal norm requiring citizens to pay the unified social contribution from expenditures on the purchase of expensive cars, high-end alcoholic beverages, tobacco products, various paid internet content, as well as other luxury items; establishing non-governmental pension funds under the national associations and professional unions of surveyors, land managers, and large geodesic-land management corporations; integrating personal income tax and military levy into the unified social contribution while simultaneously developing a mechanism for the redistribution of the reformed Unified Social Contribution (USC) among target funds and budgets. Moreover, the research results clearly demonstrated the impracticality of increasing the military levy rate.

Predicting fracture risk for elderly osteoporosis patients by hybrid machine learning model.

Osteoporotic fractures significantly impact individuals's quality of life and exert substantial pressure on the social pension system. This study aims to develop prediction models for osteoporotic fracture and uncover potential risk factors based on Electronic Health Records (EHR). Data of patients with osteoporosis were extracted from the EHR of Xinhua Hospital (July 2012-October 2017). Demographic and clinical features were used to develop prediction models based on 12 independent machine learning (ML) algorithms and 3 hybrid ML models. To facilitate a nuanced interpretation of the results, a comprehensive importance score was conceived, incorporating various perspectives to effectively discern and mine critical features from the data. A total of 8530 patients with osteoporosis were included for analysis, of which 1090 cases (12.8%) were fracture patients. The hybrid model that synergistically combines the Support Vector Machine (SVM) and XGBoost algorithms demonstrated the best predictive performance in terms of accuracy and precision (above 90%) among all benchmark models. Blood Calcium, Alkaline phosphatase (ALP), C-reactive Protein (CRP), Apolipoprotein A/B ratio and High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) were statistically found to be associated with osteoporotic fracture. The hybrid machine learning model can be a reliable tool for predicting the risk of fracture in patients with osteoporosis. It is expected to assist clinicians in identifying high-risk fracture patients and implementing early interventions.

Aging with Dignity: Exploring the Imperative of Universal Social Pension

This research addresses the multifaceted challenges faced by older individuals in terms of financial security and the implications for their ability to age with dignity. By examining the impact of aging on economic well-being, the study delves into the theoretical foundations and practical implementations of universal social pension programs globally. It explores the dynamic interplay between financial constraints and dignified aging, considering aspects such as healthcare access, social participation, and overall well-being. A critical component of the research involves assessing the impact of aging on financial security, evaluating the relationship between financial security and dignified aging, identifying opportunities for improving universal social pension programs and providing recommendations for policy and practice. This research contributes valuable insights to the academic discourse on aging and social welfare, fostering a deeper understanding of the complexities inherent in ensuring dignified aging. The findings are anticipated to inform policy decisions, shape interventions, and contribute to the ongoing global dialogue on creating inclusive environments that prioritize the well-being and dignity of the aging population.

WHO ARE THE PORTUGUESE WHO REACH 100 YEARS OF AGE? A DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS USING 2021 CENSUS DATA

Abstract Portugal is considered one of the oldest countries of Europe as a conjugation of low birth rates and high life expectancy. The age group of 100+ is one of the fastest growing, with 270 centenarians in 1990 to 1961 centenarians in 2020 (Teixeira et al., 2020). In this study we present the profile of centenarians based on real data of the last Portuguese Census 2021. There are 2801 centenarians, showing a significant increase in relation to the previous censuses (589 centenarians in 2001, and 1526 centenarians in 2011). Most centenarians are women (82.0%), widowed (84.6%), attended school (61.0%), have social pension as main income source (96.3%), are catholic (93.9%) and were born in Portugal (98.6%). The average number of reported difficulties in vision, hearing, mobility, self-care, memory/concentration, and communication is of 5.12, meaning that the current cohort of centenarians face high constrains in their daily living and most probably depend on any sort of care support. Overall, Portugal follows the longevity phenomenon of a growing number of centenarians as verified in USA, Japan, and other European countries (United Nations, 2022). Profiling centenarians’ main characteristics with reliable data is a starting point for outlining the specific social, medical, and financial needs of those reaching very advanced ages, and for defining government policies and age-sensitive interventions.

Dynamics of income of pensioners: analysis, problems and solutions

Currently there is an increasing number of older people in Russia, primarily pensioners. It appears that the mentioned trend will proceed for a long period of time. So, the issue of ensuring high living standards for this group of the population is acute. However, the present trends in the work remuneration of persons in pre-retirement age, spread on informal employment, and hence, precarization of labor relations, as well as the challenges in pension and tax legislation result in a complex and contradictory situation in the formation of monetary income of pensioners.The present article is devoted to the analysis and forecasting of the basic trends in the financial situation of persons over the able-bodied age. The average size of the insurance old-age pension in the end of 2022 did not achieve the amount recommended by the ILO Convention 102, and the social pension was even lower. In addition, the later retirement often leads to poverty, as it is impossible for the aged to get pensions, on the one hand, and on the other hand, to get a job due to the existing age discrimination and their reduced physical ability to work.The article analyses the factors that have a direct on the size dynamics of insurance and social old-age pensions. At the same time, insurance pensions have the economic nature of deferred wages, i.e. they are formed directly by pensioners themselves. It also analyzes possible ways of compensation for pensioners’ low incomes through continuing work activity.

Study on the Status Quo, Trend, Causes and Countermeasures of Population Aging in China

Due to the inevitable trend of social development and the change of family planning and birth idea, Chinas aging presents a large scale, and the characteristics of population aging fast are rare in the world. The consequent problems include the continuous shrinking of the size of the labor force, the heavy burden of social pensions, and the downward pressure on economic operations. Based on the relevant data of the Seventh Census and the latest theoretical research, this paper mainly analyzes the current situation, trend and causes of aging, and actively promotes the policy of postponing retirement, and puts forward specific solutions, including developing surplus labor force; establishing a redistribution system commensurate with the aging society; accelerating the construction of a sound and perfect social security system; developing high and new technology and develop artificial intelligence machines; improving the education system for the elderly, so as to provide useful reference for China to successfully cope with the aging population.

Research on the Problems and Countermeasures Analysis of Old-age Security for the Elderly in Rural China in the Context of Population Aging

With the simultaneous process of urbanization and population aging in China, old-age security for rural senior citizens has once again attracted attention. Chinas rural areas are currently experiencing increased population aging, while social security initiatives for the aging population are insufficient. Therefore, in the context of population aging, it is imperative to improve the problem of old-age security for rural senior citizens in China. This paper mainly uses the literature research method and comparative analysis method, and based on comparing and analyzing the social pension problems in coastal and mainland rural areas, it puts forward corresponding countermeasures for Chinas actual situation to address the issue of rural pension security in China. China has transitioned into the phase of population aging. The research on the rural elderlys old-age security problems can better identify the existing problems; the existing problems will be studied and solved to help reduce the burden of Chinas younger generation of old-age pension, which can be stabilized for the elderly in their old age and is conducive to improving the pioneering ability of the younger generation and the vitality of the countrys economic development.

Impact of the new rural social pension insurance on the health of the rural older adult population: based on the China health and retirement longitudinal study.

The health issues of China's older adult population in rural areas have been receiving increasing attention with the continuous expansion of the nation's ageing population and the continuous promotion of urban-rural integration. The impact of the new rural social pension insurance (NRSPI) on the health of the rural older adult population, the mechanism of its action and how old-age service can be improved and optimised according to the health needs of the rural older adult population are urgent and realistic challenges. Based on survey data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2015 and 2018, this study applies a multivariate ordered logistic regression model to explore the impact mechanism and effect of the NRSPI on the older adult population health in rural China while controlling for endogeneity. The results show that participation in the NRSPI can significantly improve the health of the rural older adult population at a 1% level. The results of the heterogeneity test reveal that the NRSPI has a significant impact on the self-reported health of the rural older adult at a 1% level, with a significantly positive impact on the mental and physical health of rural female older adult, whereas the impact on male older adult is not significant. The mediating effect test results show that medical services, food access and entertainment activities have a mediating effect on the new rural social endowment insurance. The results of the moderating effect test indicate that the NRSPI regulates 7.8% of the effect of physical health on mental health and 10.7% of the effect of mental health on physical health. Based on these findings, this study proposes to strengthen the construction of healthy lifestyle guidance and emotional support systems while improving the NRSPI's participation rate and treatment level to meet the diverse health service needs of different older adult groups.

Policy interplay among social health insurance system, pension system, delayed retirement initiative and implications for the self-rated health status of older workers.

Delayed retirement initiative proposed in China attaches greater importance to the sustainability of pension systems and the labour shortage, but less to the health status of older people. The existing social health insurance and pension system are not well established to match this initiative. This study investigates the policy mix of delayed retirement, employment-based social health insurance, social pension participation for health status of older people. Results of the data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS-2018) show that late retirement could benefit health status among older adults. Moreover, such effect of late retirement appears more salient for those uninsured by employment-based social health insurance and those still in the pension contribution phase upon reaching the statutory retirement age. Hence, in countries with inadequate health insurance and pension systems, such as China, delayed retirement may serve as an important alternative to social security for the health of older people.

The combined effect of social pensions and cash transfers on child mortality: evaluating the last two decades in Brazil and projecting their mitigating effect during the global economic crisis

The world is currently experiencing multiple economic crises due to the COVID-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine, and inflation surge, which disproportionately affect children, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We evaluated if the expansion of Social Assistance, represented by Social Pensions (SP) and Conditional Cash Transfers (CCT), could reduce infant and child mortality, and mitigate excess deaths among children in Brazil, one of the LMICs most affected by these economic crises. We conducted a retrospective impact evaluation in a cohort of Brazilian municipalities from 2004 to 2019 using multivariable fixed-effects negative binomial models, adjusted for relevant demographic, social, and economic factors, to estimate the effects of the SP and CCT on infant and child mortality. To verify the robustness of the results, we conducted several sensitivity and triangulation analyses, including difference-in-difference with propensity-score matching. These results were incorporated into dynamic microsimulation models to generate projections to 2030 of various economic crises and Social Assistance scenarios. Consolidated coverage of SP was associated with significant reductions in infant and child mortality rates, with a rate ratio (RR) of 0.843 (95% CI: 0.826-0.861) and 0.840 (95% CI: 0.824-0.856), respectively. Similarly, CCT consolidated coverages showed RRs of 0.868 (95% CI: 0.842-0.849) and 0.874 (95% CI: 0.850-0.899) for infant and child mortality, respectively. The higher the degree of poverty in the municipalities, the stronger the impact of CCT on reducing child mortality. Given the current economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of SP and CCT could avert 148,736 (95% CI: 127,148-170,706) child deaths up to 2030, compared with fiscal austerity measures. SP and CCT programs could strongly reduce child mortality in LMICs, and their expansion should be considered as an effective strategy to mitigate the impact of the current multiple global economic crises. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Grant_Number:INV-027961. Medical Research Council(MRC-UKRI),Grant_Number:MC_PC_MR/T023678/1.

Digital inclusive and rural household fertility decision-making

This paper selects data from the CHFS in 2017, 2019, and 2021 to explore the relationship between the development of digital inclusive finance and the fertility decisions of rural families. It is found that digital inclusive finance plays a positive role in rural families' fertility decisions in general; the higher the level of social pension security, the greater the negative effect of digital inclusive finance on rural families' fertility decisions. Digital inclusive finance promotes families' positive fertility decisions by relieving rural families from liquidity constraints.

Assess and Forecast Social Insurance trends to 2025 to serve the State Management of Social Insurance in Vietnam

After more than 28 years of dedication and growth, overcoming many difficulties and challenges, Vietnam Social Insurance is increasingly recognized and positively evaluated by the regional and international social security community for its successes and developments. compared with social security systems in countries with similar GDP and development levels. With social insurance and unemployment insurance; database system on households and centralized health insurance payment assessment system connected to nearly 14,000 medical examination and treatment establishments; transaction in the form of online public service level 4; the percentage of people who are satisfied with the services provided by Vietnam Social Security on new and traditional platforms is relatively high; the social insurance fund becomes the largest social security fund, which is uniformly and safely managed and has made certain contributions to the development of the country's economy; The national unified model of social insurance management and implementation is receiving increasing attention from the regional and international community. With a specific goal of striving by 2030 to reach about 60% of the workforce of the age group participating in social insurance, of which farmers and informal sector workers participating in voluntary social insurance account for about 5% of the labor force. in the age; about 45% of the workforce in the age group participating in unemployment insurance; about 60% of people after retirement age are entitled to pensions, monthly social insurance and social pension benefits; The index assessing the satisfaction level of social insurance participants reached 90%. Therefore, forecasting social insurance trends is a very important job in the process of state management of social insurance in the coming time.

Research on China's Birth Rate based on BP Neural Network

In terms of the impact of population age structure on birth rate, some studies have shown that compared to the reference category of respondents aged 30-34, young respondents are less likely to not have children, while older recipients have a more common unwillingness to have children; Women of childbearing age consider their own physical condition and reproductive safety factors. The older their parents are, the lower their willingness to have children, and after having one child, they may not be willing to have a second child; Moreover, if there are more elderly people in the family and the social pension security system and system are not perfect, the willingness of the family to have more children will decrease.

Research on Influencing Factors of Consumers' Impulsive Consumption Behavior in China from the Perspective of Behavioral Economics

The complexity of impulsive purchasing behavior among consumers is manifested by both the possibility of being influenced by external factors and the greater likelihood of accepting the influence of internal factors. This article conducts a study on the influencing factors of Chinese consumers' impulsive consumption behavior from the perspective of behavioral economics. This article describes the impact of consumer impulse buying on social contexts, the impact of consumer impulse buying on self-concept, and the interference effect of consumer impulse buying. Due to impulsive buying being a sudden, difficult to suppress, and hedonic complex purchasing behavior, its complexity is not only manifested as impulsive buying being influenced by external factors. Therefore, it is necessary to further improve the existing social security system, such as social pension insurance, serious illness medical reimbursement, public education, social employment, etc. Through a sound social security mechanism, the economic burden of young people can be reduced, the security of the "psychological account" can be enhanced, so that they can use the saved funds for social consumption, thereby improving the quality of life for themselves and their families, and revitalizing the social economy, promoting the development of the national economy.

The impact of old‐age pension on nutritional outcomes: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan

AbstractExtensive studies have discussed the economic and welfare effects of social pensions worldwide, while scant attention has been paid to their nutritional effects, especially in emerging economies. Using multitopic longitudinal survey data of households and individuals in Kyrgyzstan covering four waves of 2012, 2013, 2016, and 2019, this study aims to examine the impact of an old‐age pension on the nutritional outcomes of the elderly and shed light on their underlying mechanisms. Our empirical identification rests on a propensity score matching with difference‐in‐differences estimation design to address the endogeneity problem of receiving an old‐age pension. Overall, the results indicate that receiving an old‐age pension has a significant and negative impact on body mass index and the probability of being overweight for males, while no significant impact of the old‐age pension has been observed for females. Receiving an old‐age pension has no significant effect on expenditure of food consumption, calorie intake, and macronutrient intake, while it significantly reduces the ratio of protein intake to total calorie intake. We also observe significant heterogeneity in the nutritional effect of an old‐age pension across various education levels and income levels; the negative nutritional effect is more salient for elderly individuals who are relatively poor or who have lower education. Our findings provide profound implications for policies targeting improving the nutritional status of rural residents in emerging economies through the implementation of the old‐age pension [EconLit Citations: H55, I15, I38].

Richer and Healthier? Social Pensions and Unhealthy Consumption Behavior in China

Richer and Healthier? Social Pensions and Unhealthy Consumption Behavior in China

Health Outcomes of Social Pension Expansion: A Quasi-Experiment Among Older Adults in Hong Kong.

A social pension, regarded as a reliable source of income, has the potential to significantly influence the overall wellbeing of vulnerable older adults. This study aimed to extend the understanding of the effects of social pension expansion beyond its economic impacts to encompass recipients' health status. Using three-wave data from a representative sample of older adults, we employed a quasi-experimental assessment model to evaluate the impact of a recent social pension expansion in Hong Kong on health-related consumption and health outcomes among older adults. The results of the triple difference estimations revealed that an increased social pension significantly enhanced older people's engagement in entertainment activities, utilization of healthcare services, and expenditures on preventive health products. Furthermore, the increased social pension was found to have a significant positive effect on mitigating poor self-rated health and poor sleep quality. However, it did not have a significant impact on the prevalence of depression. These findings suggest that social pension expansion should be coordinated with other policy initiatives to comprehensively improve the physical and mental health of older adults.

Economic independence and living arrangements of older women with agricultural Hukou in China

This study estimates the economic independence (EI) of older Chinese women with agricultural hukou and examines the relationship between their EI and living arrangements. Using the concept of happiness, the study explains the driving forces of the relationship between these women's EI and living arrangements and summarizes the effects of husbands, children, and grandchildren in terms of the economic substitution effect, economic gravitational effect, and non-economic gravitational effect. Older women's EI is very low, and their average pension income is only 21% of the local average consumption. There is a negative relationship between their EI and the probability of living with their children. Older women with no financial constraints are more likely to live on their own or apart from their children. Happiness drops significantly when older women live with their lower-income children. The substitution effect of a husband's income not only reduces the overall probability of the female elderly living with their children but also reduces the marginal effect of the female elderly's EI on that probability. When older women have low personal EI or poor health, and their children have high incomes, they tend to live with their relatively higher-income children. Grandchildren aged 0–5 generally increase the probability of elderly women living with their children. Common prosperity in China requires enhancing the developmental capacity of all people. Improving the happiness and life quality of the rural female elderly must be approached from two perspectives: from the perspective of the elderly, to increase pension income and improve the actual effect of the social pension service; and from the perspective of children, to ensure their stable employment and income growth and reduce their child-care burdens (both financial and caring) in various ways.

Impact of Universal Old Age Benefit to Revenue and Poverty Reduction in Tanzania

This manuscript analyzes the impact of old age benefit policy reforms on government revenue, income sharing, and poverty in Tanzania. This is an instrument for strengthening social protection. In this context, a universal old-age pension might assist Tanzania's Mainland in reducing income inequality in a similar manner to the positive outcome identified among developed countries in the European Union. This study uses a static microsimulation model for Tanzania (TAZMOD v2.4). The simulation model is based on social benefit reforms resulting from changes in the old age benefit policy. The two reforms were proposed. The findings found that in both proposed reforms, there is an increase in Government returns over taxes; Social Security Contribution (SSC) and indirect taxes increase by 5.31 percent from TSH 8,870,422.74 to TSH 9,368,616.08, respectively. Also, the share of the poor population decreased by 0.55%. Regarding the effect on poverty, it decreases by 0.55 percent in the two proposed reforms. The empirical results of the presented quantitative analyses have concrete policy implications: It can be concluded that there is an urgent need to reform the targeting of social pensions as the majority of the elderly and poor continue to be excluded from the benefits. The Government can introduce the old age benefit to people 60 years of age and older; hence, the outcomes are significant, and their space depends unfavorably on whether the profit sum is allocated. The government could improve old age benefits to address the issue of poverty and later improve old-age livelihoods.

Minimum eligibility age for social pensions and household poverty: Evidence from Mexico

AbstractThis paper examines the impact of social pensions on old‐age poverty. To achieve causal identification, we leverage the reduction in the minimum eligibility age of Mexico's flagship non‐means‐tested social pension program. We find that the program's expansion significantly reduced extreme poverty, mainly among indigenous seniors and in rural areas. However, it had negligible effects on labor force participation, suggesting that social pensions were not effective in ensuring minimum economic well‐being and simultaneously inducing retirement among seniors at early stages of old age. The program's small cash transfer and mistargeting are among the main explanations.