For developing the International Maritime Organization (IMO) second-generation intact stability criteria regarding broaching, draft vulnerability criteria for surf-riding were agreed at the IMO in 2012. This paper describes their hydrodynamic backgrounds with captive model experiments for seven ships, a hydrodynamic theory and a random process theory. In the first level vulnerability criteria, a ship is required to reduce her Froude number of less than 0.3 in case of severe following waves. For predicting the surf-riding threshold in a global bifurcation theory, it is necessary to precisely estimate wave-induced surge force. Thus, the authors execute captive model experiments for three ships in model basins. As a result, we confirmed that the Froude-Krylov calculation overestimates the amplitude of wave-induced surge force so that an empirical formula for regulatory application is presented. For investigating the reason of this discrepancy, a slender body theory assuming low encounter frequency is applied to the situation where a ship runs with a wave. This theory suggests that change of wave-making resistance due to incident wave could reduce the amplitude of the wave-induced surge force and quantitative agreement with model experiment requires the use of CFD or an empirical formula. Thus, the authors can recommend the use of experimental correction formula for the vulnerability criteria. Based on sample calculation results of surf-riding probability of six ships in the North Atlantic, the safety level to be required in the criteria is proposed.